Outstanding post. But let me present the counterargument to the claim that Ovechkin is supremely valuable on the power play, because I think there is evidence to suggest that his usage rate is extremely beneficial relative to other players around the league (particularly as a goal scorer) and there is a legitimate argument that Ovechkin is not even the most valuable player on his own team's power play unit. I'm not doing this to criticize Ovechkin either, but to perhaps shed some further light on his value, as I'm guessing the truth might well be somewhere in the middle between what you wrote and what I'm about to argue based on the statistics.
Generally at even strength, players have to take whatever chances or shots are available to them, or often the chance will quickly disappear. On the power play, however, teams can maintain puck possession and thereby choose what patterns to run with the goal of setting up specific players to take shots from particular spots on the ice. The result is that special teams stats will be disproportionately affected by a player's role on the unit, and I think that matters when evaluating them.
I ran the numbers for 17 top NHL forwards on the power play between 2012-13 and 2017-18, the period of peak Washington power play dominance (source: Natural Stat Trick):
Power Play Points per 60 Minutes, Top NHL Forwards (2013-18):
Rank | Player | TOI | PPG | PPA | PPP | PPP/60 |
1 | Backstrom | 1493.4 | 30 | 156 | 186 | 7.47 |
2 | Malkin | 1397.9 | 56 | 106 | 162 | 6.95 |
3 | Giroux | 1646.0 | 47 | 142 | 189 | 6.89 |
4 | Kucherov | 1019.6 | 39 | 73 | 112 | 6.59 |
5 | Crosby | 1647.6 | 57 | 116 | 173 | 6.30 |
6 | Kane | 1407.2 | 53 | 93 | 146 | 6.23 |
7 | Voracek | 1556.2 | 38 | 116 | 154 | 5.94 |
8 | Stamkos | 1203.4 | 64 | 55 | 119 | 5.93 |
9 | Kopitar | 1307.8 | 33 | 94 | 127 | 5.83 |
10 | Kessel | 1608.1 | 46 | 109 | 155 | 5.78 |
11 | Seguin | 1438.0 | 60 | 78 | 138 | 5.76 |
12 | Tavares | 1454.9 | 56 | 83 | 139 | 5.73 |
13 | Pavelski | 1534.4 | 66 | 80 | 146 | 5.71 |
14 | Ovechkin | 1912.4 | 118 | 63 | 181 | 5.68 |
15 | Thornton | 1436.2 | 24 | 104 | 128 | 5.35 |
16 | Benn | 1476.3 | 56 | 74 | 130 | 5.28 |
17 | Simmonds | 1505.3 | 75 | 52 | 127 | 5.06 |
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Nicklas Backstrom was clearly the best power play scorer in the league on a per-minute basis. Backstrom also outscored Ovechkin in overall power play points by 186-181, despite playing significantly less time on the power play unit. Now, a per-minute comparison is not entirely fair to Ovechkin since he spends a lot more time with the second unit than anyone else. But since he's not even the #1 point scorer on his team, you have to really be banking on Ovechkin's gravity effects on the rest of the unit or assuming that Ovechkin's goals are more valuable than the playmaking efforts of Backstrom.
Some people will write off Backstrom's production as a product of Ovi, but I don't think that's correct at all. Definitely if Ovechkin is the guy driving the bus, then it would make sense that would impact Backstrom's numbers (particularly his assists), but there is a very curious pattern with Ovechkin's power play goal scoring in his time spent with Nicklas Backstrom. It appears that the best predictor of Ovechkin's power play goals is Backstrom's secondary assists on the power play. Not primary assists (which have roughly zero correlation), secondaries only. There is actually a stronger correlation with Backstrom's A2s than the number of power play shots taken by Ovechkin:
Year | Ovi PPG | Ovi S | Nick PPA1 | Nick PPA2 |
2008 | 22 | 125 | 8 | 14 |
2009 | 19 | 178 | 17 | 11 |
2010 | 13 | 102 | 26 | 17 |
2011 | 7 | 98 | 12 | 6 |
2012 | 13 | 81 | 10 | 6 |
2013 | 16 | 78 | 2 | 13 |
2014 | 24 | 137 | 15 | 23 |
2015 | 25 | 134 | 14 | 16 |
2016 | 19 | 142 | 11 | 16 |
2017 | 17 | 99 | 12 | 15 |
2018 | 17 | 117 | 9 | 10 |
Correl | 1.00 | 0.59 | -0.05 | 0.69 |
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That might seem random, but it actually makes a lot of sense if you are familiar with the primary pattern of the Washington power play. The puck goes to Backstrom on the opposite side of the ice as Ovechkin, he draws the coverage towards him, then passes to whichever teammate is best set up to immediately throw the puck over to Ovechkin for the one-timer (often the guy at the point). If you watch the entire sequence of the Kuznetsov goal that Dr John Carlson linked in his post, I don't think that it is necessarily the best example of Ovechkin's gravity effects, but I do think it is a great example of how Backstrom's puck movement can unbalance the entire PK unit. At the start of the sequence when Kuznetsov has the puck at the half boards, Ovechkin is just as open as Kuznetsov would be later in the play, the defence just isn't worred about him because they don't think Washington can get the puck to him yet. But Backstrom's one-time pass from down low across to Ovechkin nearly creates a point-blank scoring chance, and it still ends up leaving the PK unit vulnerable for the play (and don't underestimate the threat of John Carlson faking a shot from the point either in helping further free up Kuznetsov). Moving the puck through the seam on the power play is crucial for creating high danger chances, and Backstrom is a passing virtuoso. If your analysis is that Ovechkin created that play, then I think you're significantly underselling the other four guys on the ice wearing white.
I think the main reason that defending teams can't take away Ovechkin from the Washington power play is that the rest of the power play unit won't let them get away with it because they create too many shots and chances on the other side of the ice. Not every power play unit can do that with the same success, even ones that also have great shooters who are fully capable of occupying the defence's attention. It isn't a secret what Washington does on the power play, plenty of other teams have tried 1-3-1 setups designed to feed pucks to the left side for their best right-handed shooter, but if the defence doesn't respect the 4-on-3 possibilities on the other side of the ice then that shooter will not be able to get off a high volume of shots no matter how good he is.
In the above group of forwards, the two other guys who most closely fit the Ovechkin mould of high-volume shooters who take most of their shots from distance are Stamkos and Seguin. Here are their individual power play shooting percentages, as well as the percentage of their team's shots they take while they are on the ice with the man advantage, and the number of power play shots their teams take overall per 60 minutes with each of them on the ice:
2013-2018:
Ovechkin: 16.7 Sh%, 36.5% of on-ice SF, 60.8 on-ice SF/60
Stamkos: 19.0 Sh%, 33.6% of on-ice SF, 49.8 on-ice SF/60
Seguin: 12.4 Sh%, 33.0% of on-ice SFs, 61.0 on-ice SF/60
(Note: I didn't include Patrik Laine here because he didn't have enough overall games to qualify, but he's been 22.9%, 30.7% and 61.9 for his career so far).
Clearly Seguin is just not as good of a finisher as the others, which is the main reason he can't match their power play goal production. You can't just plug anybody into the Ovechkin role and assume they will score a ton of goals, he's definitely providing a lot of finishing value even relative to other elite forwards and I would never argue otherwise. But it certainly appears that the most significant difference between Stamkos and Ovechkin is that Washington was much better at creating shots overall on the power play. The bottom line is that Ovechkin's slice of the shot pie ends up being much bigger overall (Ovechkin's PP ice time advantage over everyone else also plays in here). That was true compared to a lot of other teams as well, and the effect of this has actually been pretty significant:
Power Play Shots on Goal, NHL Forwards (2013-18):
Rank | Player | GP | PP Shots |
1 | Ovechkin | 450 | 707 |
2 | Seguin | 435 | 483 |
3 | Voracek | 449 | 429 |
4 | Malkin | 357 | 389 |
5 | Tavares | 426 | 375 |
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It's a pretty massive advantage to be taking 46% more shots than anybody else. Some of that is absolutely deserved, because any team with Ovechkin on it would certainly be trying to get him the puck on the power play. And I do agree that great players have gravity effects on defensive coverage, and help free things up to an extent for their teammates. We also know from basketball analytics (which have some very useful analogies to power play analysis in hockey) that the higher a player's usage rate, the more impressive it is to maintain a high percentage because there are less selection effects in play (i.e. Ovechkin is hammering everything whereas other shooters might only be taking more open shots or only shooting when the pass is perfect, for example). But I still think it's fair to say that without Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Green, Carlson, et al, that puck wouldn't get onto Ovechkin's stick nearly as often as it has, and that means he wouldn't have hit the stat sheet as often and his goal scoring numbers would not have been as historic as they have been from 2013-2018.
The value you put on Ovechkin's power play scoring ends up being pretty crucial to his case, because as an even strength scorer Ovechkin is not that impressive at all outside of his absolute peak (he's 13th in the league in even strength points since 2013, for example). I'm open to being convinced that Ovechkin's power play impact is more valuable than I'm giving him credit for, but I still struggle to rate him that far above Backstrom on the power play. And you have to keep in mind that an individual player's power play point numbers really overstate the actual value they delivered in terms of marginal goals for a team's power play results, because every team is putting out their best players on the power play (in technical terms, the hurdle rate is very high).
For example, Washington scored 339 power play goals from 2013 to 2018, while a team that scored the league average PPG every year would have 269. That's 70 extra goals over six seasons, 12.5 goals per 82 games, and you have to somehow divvy that up between Backstrom, Ovechkin, Mike Green, John Carlson, Evgeni Kuznetsov, and everyone else. Does that end up being more valuable to a team in terms of net goals than, say, an elite two-way defenceman who has a defensive impact at 5-on-5, is maybe not as good on the power play but still contributes, plus also kills penalties at a high level? I think it's not actually super easy to make the case for the scoring winger in that comparison, even if they are very good on the power play.