Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 3

[Dr John Carlson]

Some extra thoughts on Ovechkin:

- His 2012-2013 season wasn't that great. I'd rank it middle of the pack compared to the remainder of his seasons... his 14-15 and 17-18 seasons were better IMO, particularly 14-15 where he was the best forward in the league. Both seasons he was a more consistent threat at even strength while still being excellent on the powerplay.

- It's worth keeping in mind that he's in a pretty optimal position at this stage in his career to rack up big goal numbers. He's got two excellent puck distributing centremen to choose from. You can put Backstrom on his line if they're struggling defensively and in transition, you can put Kuznetsov on his line if he's not getting good looks in the offensive zone. Obviously he has to play very well to put up the numbers he does, but he absolutely could not put up the same totals with an average centre on his line.

- His 2016-17 down season can be attributed almost entirely to a lingering wrist injury he sustained about 1/3 of the way through the year that affected his shot accuracy and velocity, leading to more passed up shot attempts that he would've normally otherwise taken (reflected in him taking way fewer shots than normal). This combined with Nazem Kadri's knee on knee hit in Round 1 against Toronto significantly hampering his skating also led to a decrease in production in the postseason.

- Adam Oates f***ing blew as a head coach. Please don't weigh his -35 season too greatly.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

This isn't getting any easier for me. I've rotated Bourque back to the "European Quartet" (i.e.: Hašek, Jagr, Lidström, Ovechkin) and it's now 5-to-choose-4. So... I thought I'd pick up some lenses and see how they look through different eyes.

If I was a GM and could sign any of these fellows to a "career-services" contract:
1. Lidström
2. Jagr
3. Bourque
4. Hašek
5. Ovechkin

If I was a GM on the hot-seat, and I could have the white-hot peak of any of these guys because ownership is demanding that I compete for a Stanley Cup right now:
1. Hašek
2. Bourque
3. Jagr
4. Ovechkin
5. Lidström

If I was a coach on a 5-year guaranteed contract and could be assured of a player to be on my roster for the entire 5-year span of my tenure there:
1. Lidström
2. Bourque
3. Jagr
4. Ovechkin
5. Hašek

If I was a lunch-pail 3rd-line LWer, on a three year NMC contract and could choose any of these competitors to be my teammate:
1. Bourque
2. Lidström
3. Jagr
4. Ovechkin
5. Hašek

Looks like I over-valued Ovechkin on my initial list- and am on the verge of doing my first major re-think of a placing re: my preliminary submission.

 

[Tuna Tatarrrrrr]

Still no Makarov? Shame.

I'm starting to feel all people who hurt Canada internationally are getting a shaft here. Hasek, Jagr, Makarov, Ovechkin are all bound to be lower then I would have them.

European bias at his best here. When you just speak for nothing...

Or maybe they are just lower because other players DESERVED to be higher, it's simple.

 

[Theokritos]

(Request to moderators - can anyone help me fix the formatting, ie removing the bold, from the Potvin and Bourque tables? Thanks!)

Done.

 

[Theokritos]

An assessment of post-2010 Alex Ovechkin

If we had run-downs like yours for all the players in history, the whole endeavor would be much easier and the results more substantiated. Thanks a lot!

 

[bobholly39]

Crosby is a better regular season player by a decent margin. Same thing on the international stage.


Scoring Finishes:


Sidney Crosby

1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 6

Mark Messier

2, 3, 5, 5, 7


-It's not close. Take out Gretzky and Mario and Messier still lags well behind Crosby as a consistent top end scorer. And again, Sid lost at least 2 shoe in Art Ross titles due to deliberate/freak injuries.



Hart Trophy Voting:


Crosby:

1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 5, 6


Messier:

1, 1, 2, 9, 9


-Top end is similar but Crosby blows Messier out in terms of depth.



AS Finishes:



Crosby

1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2

Messier

1, 1, 1, 2


-Again, Messier and Sid both look good in terms of peak, but Sid simply has better depth here.



TABLE 1 - BEST SEVEN YEARS, POINTS (last updated: 2018)

Wayne Gretzky	155.6
Phil Esposito	130.4
Gordie Howe	125.5
Mario Lemieux	119.8
Bobby Orr	114.8
Jaromir Jagr	114.2
Bobby Hull	108.3
Stan Mikita	107.8
Jean Beliveau	105.7
Guy Lafleur	104.5
Ted Lindsay	104.4
Marcel Dionne	103.3
Sidney Crosby	102.4
Maurice Richard	102.4
Howie Morenz	102.2
Andy Bathgate	101.1
Alex Ovechkin	98.4
Joe Sakic	97.7
Bill Cowley	97.0
Charlie Conacher	96.2
Bill Cook	96.0
Joe Thornton	95.6
Frank Boucher	95.1
Mike Bossy	94.8
Evgeni Malkin	93.7
Bryan Trottier	93.7
Steve Yzerman	93.2
Teemu Selanne	92.7
Martin St. Louis	92.4
Syl Apps Sr	92.4
Sweeney Schriner	91.3
Bobby Clarke	90.4
Max Bentley	90.4
Peter Forsberg	90.3
Nels Stewart	90.3
Adam Oates	90.0
Bernie Geoffrion	89.9
Mark Messier	89.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

TABLE 2 - BEST TEN YEARS, POINTS (last updated: 2018)

Wayne Gretzky	144.7
Gordie Howe	118.1
Phil Esposito	117.6
Mario Lemieux	112.0
Jaromir Jagr	105.9
Stan Mikita	102.5
Bobby Hull	101.8
Jean Beliveau	100.0
Sidney Crosby	99.3
Maurice Richard	97.9
Marcel Dionne	97.5
Ted Lindsay	95.8
Andy Bathgate	95.6
Alex Ovechkin	94.1
Joe Sakic	94.0
Bobby Orr	92.1
Guy Lafleur	91.0
Joe Thornton	90.8
Mike Bossy	89.4
Howie Morenz	88.9
Frank Boucher	88.8
Steve Yzerman	88.8
Teemu Selanne	88.7
Bryan Trottier	87.2
Nels Stewart	87.1
Bill Cowley	86.7
Evgeni Malkin	86.7
Martin St. Louis	86.3
Adam Oates	86.2
Jean Ratelle	85.3
Mark Messier	85.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

-Pretty large gap in scoring averages. Sid is simply a more potent producer offensively speaking.



Results - top 300 ES VsX (1960-2017) - best seven years

1	GRETZKY, WAYNE	111
2	JAGR, JAROMIR	81
3	ESPOSITO, PHIL	75
4	LEMIEUX, MARIO	74
5	HULL, BOBBY	74
6	LAFLEUR, GUY	72
7	MIKITA, STAN	71
8	CROSBY, SIDNEY	70
9	YZERMAN, STEVE	68
10	THORNTON, JOE	68
11	BOSSY, MIKE	67
12	OVECHKIN, ALEX	67
13	SAKIC, JOE	66
14	DIONNE, MARCEL	66
15	KURRI, JARI	66
16	ULLMAN, NORM	66
17	RICHARD, HENRI	65
18	LINDROS, ERIC	65
19	RATELLE, JEAN	65
20	IGINLA, JAROME	65
21	ST. LOUIS, MARTIN	64
22	HOWE, GORDIE	64
23	KANE, PATRICK	64
24	ORR, BOBBY	64
25	TROTTIER, BRYAN	64
26	MAHOVLICH, FRANK	64
27	LECLAIR, JOHN	64
28	BATHGATE, ANDY	64
29	SELANNE, TEEMU	63
30	MALKIN, EVGENI	63
31	ROBITAILLE, LUC	63
32	SEDIN, HENRIK	63
33	OATES, ADAM	62
34	MESSIER, MARK	62

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

-Even Strength Sid looks a notch better.


How about Adjusted +/-


Glossary of Terms:

SFrac: Season Fraction. 1.00 is a full season. I prefer it to games played because it gives a 48 game season, a 74 game season, an 80 game season or an 82 game season the same weight.
$ESGF: Even-strength goals for, normalized to a 200 ESG scoring environment and with estimated SH goals removed.
$ESGA: Even-strength goals against, normalized to a 200 ESG scoring environment and with estimated SH goals removed.
R-ON: Even strength GF/GA ratio when the player is on the ice.
R-OFF: Even-strength GF/GA ratio when the player is off the ice.
XEV+/-: Expected even-strength plus-minus, which is an estimate of the plus-minus that an average player would post with the same teammates. The calculation is described above.
EV+/-: Even –strength plus-minus, which is simply plus-minus with estimated shorthanded goals removed and normalized to a 200 ESG environment.
AdjEV+/-: Adjusted even-strength plus-minus, which is even-strength plus-minus minus expected even-strength plus-minus. This is the final number.
The following three stats evaluate special teams play and are not related to adjusted plus-minus. I’m including them in the table for a quick reference to the player’s contributions outside of even-strength play.
PP% : The % of the team’s power play goals for that the player was on the ice for.
SH%: The % of the team’s power play goals against that the player was on the ice for.
$PPP/G: Power play points per game, normalized to a 70 PPG environment and with pre-1988 PP assists estimated.

Results
Here are the top 100 in career adjusted even-strength plus-minus, as well as the players in the HOH Top 100 and several others who were strongly considered for voting.

Rank	Player	GP	$ESGF	$ESGA	R-ON	R-OFF	EV%	EV+/-	XEV+/-	AEV+/-	AEV+/-/82
1	Jaromir Jagr	1711	1794	1332	1.35	0.93	40%	461	-69	530	25
2	Ray Bourque	1612	1691	1231	1.37	0.95	42%	460	-48	508	26
3	Bobby Orr	657	1044	526	1.99	1.03	49%	518	13	505	63
4	Wayne Gretzky	1487	1893	1492	1.27	1.04	47%	401	39	362	20
5	Larry Robinson	1384	1632	1022	1.60	1.34	43%	611	250	360	21
6	Nicklas Lidstrom	1564	1682	1189	1.41	1.17	41%	493	149	344	18
7	Joe Thornton	1446	1269	955	1.33	0.96	35%	314	-28	342	19
8	Teemu Selanne	1451	1232	1002	1.23	0.87	35%	230	-101	332	19
9	Mark Howe	929	939	628	1.50	0.96	39%	311	-20	330	29
10	Al MacInnis	1416	1397	992	1.41	1.11	38%	404	81	323	19
11	Stan Mikita	1393	1220	825	1.48	1.12	33%	395	73	323	19
12	Mario Lemieux	915	1092	883	1.24	0.84	46%	209	-110	319	29
13	Bobby Clarke	1147	894	498	1.80	1.20	30%	397	82	314	22
14	Eric Lindros	760	842	565	1.49	0.95	42%	276	-22	298	32
15	Borje Salming	1148	1206	1056	1.14	0.82	43%	150	-148	298	21
16	Dave Taylor	1111	876	671	1.30	0.84	30%	205	-86	291	21
17	Peter Forsberg	708	741	432	1.71	1.07	38%	309	24	285	33
18	Gordie Howe	921	919	724	1.27	0.85	36%	195	-89	284	25
19	Pavel Datsyuk	953	858	553	1.55	1.07	34%	305	30	275	24
20	Bryan Trottier	1279	1081	724	1.49	1.17	33%	357	90	267	17
21	Mike Bossy	752	732	408	1.80	1.17	36%	325	59	266	29
22	Sidney Crosby	782	848	602	1.41	0.96	41%	246	-18	264	28
23	Guy Lafleur	1126	1079	646	1.67	1.35	34%	432	168	264	19
24	Marcel Dionne	1348	1126	1019	1.10	0.80	35%	107	-156	263	16
25	Henrik Sedin	1248	951	707	1.35	0.98	31%	244	-12	255	17
26	John Leclair	967	868	586	1.48	1.08	35%	282	36	246	21
27	Daniel Sedin	1225	891	660	1.35	0.97	29%	231	-14	245	16
28	Larry Murphy	1615	1534	1275	1.20	1.02	39%	258	14	244	12
29	Denis Potvin	1060	1122	753	1.49	1.23	43%	369	127	242	19
30	Alex Tanguay	1088	945	713	1.33	1.00	35%	232	2	230	17
31	Scott Stevens	1635	1658	1265	1.31	1.19	42%	393	162	230	12
32	Brad Park	1115	1212	866	1.40	1.20	42%	345	125	221	16
33	Ron Francis	1731	1374	1249	1.10	0.89	34%	125	-95	220	10
34	Brad McCrimmon	1222	1041	726	1.43	1.18	34%	314	94	220	15
35	Chris Kunitz	884	705	471	1.50	1.05	31%	233	17	217	20
36	Brian Rafalski	833	823	583	1.41	1.05	38%	240	24	215	21
37	Chris Pronger	1167	1060	858	1.23	0.99	39%	201	-7	208	15
38	Frank Mahovlich	1048	1022	722	1.42	1.18	35%	300	94	206	16
39	Steve Shutt	930	790	436	1.81	1.45	29%	354	148	206	18
40	Sergei Fedorov	1249	1018	766	1.33	1.08	32%	252	47	206	14
41	Marian Hossa	1309	1026	758	1.35	1.12	30%	268	64	205	13
42	Ryan Getzlaf	861	740	546	1.35	0.98	36%	194	-7	199	19
43	Patrik Elias	1240	912	691	1.32	1.04	31%	220	23	198	13
44	Steve Larmer	1006	750	577	1.30	0.95	32%	173	-24	197	16
45	Brian Propp	1016	767	524	1.46	1.12	31%	243	49	195	16
46	Zigmund Palffy	684	615	502	1.23	0.80	37%	114	-80	194	23
47	Terry Harper	1066	1108	890	1.24	1.04	43%	218	25	193	15
48	Craig Ramsay	1070	694	462	1.50	1.12	25%	231	42	189	15
49	Keith Tkachuk	1201	992	895	1.11	0.87	36%	98	-88	186	13
50	Charlie Simmer	712	524	395	1.33	0.83	29%	130	-56	186	21
51	Gary Roberts	1224	960	723	1.33	1.10	31%	237	53	184	12
52	Chris Chelios	1651	1476	1152	1.28	1.18	39%	324	143	181	9
53	Bobby Hull	923	1004	729	1.38	1.18	40%	275	94	181	16
54	Lubomir Visnovsky	883	791	702	1.13	0.83	38%	88	-92	180	17
55	Jonathan Toews	717	666	456	1.46	1.09	34%	210	31	180	21
56	Jere Lehtinen	875	616	413	1.49	1.07	28%	203	23	180	17
57	Pierre Turgeon	1294	1042	839	1.24	1.04	33%	203	24	178	11
58	Luc Robitaille	1431	1204	1028	1.17	1.00	33%	175	-2	177	10
59	Kenny Wharram	667	611	405	1.51	1.10	31%	206	32	173	21
60	Brendan Shanahan	1524	1181	960	1.23	1.07	32%	221	49	172	9
61	Dmitri Khristich	811	608	472	1.29	0.90	30%	136	-35	171	17
62	Alex Ovechkin	921	890	702	1.27	1.03	39%	187	16	171	15
63	Carl Brewer	533	648	456	1.42	1.07	44%	193	23	170	26
64	Joe Sakic	1378	1272	1105	1.15	1.00	38%	167	-2	169	10
65	Daniel Alfredsson	1246	1010	818	1.23	1.04	33%	192	23	169	11
66	Milan Hejduk	1020	840	662	1.27	1.02	33%	178	9	169	14
67	Pierre Pilote	660	873	652	1.34	1.11	49%	221	52	169	21
68	Jarome Iginla	1554	1238	1143	1.08	0.91	36%	95	-73	169	9
69	Petr Svoboda	1047	812	622	1.31	1.05	32%	190	22	168	13
70	Michael Nylander	920	718	585	1.23	0.93	32%	133	-30	163	15
71	Jason Arnott	1244	963	792	1.22	1.01	32%	171	8	163	11
72	Michel Goulet	1089	812	688	1.18	0.92	32%	123	-39	163	12
73	Simon Gagne	822	600	446	1.34	0.98	29%	153	-7	161	16
74	Henrik Zetterberg	1000	872	672	1.30	1.08	35%	200	40	160	13
75	Marek Malik	691	582	441	1.32	0.95	34%	141	-18	159	19
76	Jean Ratelle	1280	1073	834	1.29	1.14	32%	239	81	158	10
77	Zdeno Chara	1350	1271	1062	1.20	1.07	39%	208	50	157	10
78	Marian Gaborik	989	756	624	1.21	0.95	34%	132	-25	157	13
79	Joe Reekie	902	716	604	1.19	0.91	35%	112	-40	153	14
80	Jacques Lemaire	852	811	484	1.68	1.52	33%	327	175	152	15
81	Theoren Fleury	1084	942	795	1.19	1.00	36%	147	-3	150	11
82	Joe Pavelski	806	592	445	1.33	1.00	31%	147	-1	149	15
83	Ron Stackhouse	889	893	853	1.05	0.82	42%	40	-110	149	14
84	Alexander Semin	650	521	402	1.30	0.91	31%	119	-30	149	19
85	Bill Hajt	854	813	584	1.39	1.19	37%	228	81	148	14
86	Patrice Bergeron	899	684	516	1.32	1.05	30%	168	20	148	13
87	Mike Foligno	1018	665	557	1.19	0.90	28%	107	-40	147	12
88	Ulf Samuelsson	1080	911	775	1.17	0.98	36%	135	-11	147	11
89	Cliff Ronning	1137	709	592	1.20	0.93	26%	117	-29	146	11
90	Steve Sullivan	1011	745	621	1.20	0.95	30%	124	-21	145	12
91	Mats Sundin	1346	1139	1024	1.11	0.96	35%	115	-28	143	9
92	Doug Gilmour	1474	1141	997	1.14	1.00	34%	144	1	143	8
93	Henri Richard	998	933	663	1.41	1.28	33%	270	129	141	12
94	Paul Kariya	989	834	743	1.12	0.91	38%	91	-51	141	12
95	Pavol Demitra	847	716	554	1.29	1.05	35%	162	22	140	14
96	Sergei Gonchar	1301	1113	1010	1.10	0.95	37%	104	-36	140	9
97	Keith Carney	1018	818	688	1.19	0.98	35%	131	-8	139	11
98	Martin St. Louis	1134	985	939	1.05	0.86	36%	46	-92	138	10
99	Jeremy Roenick	1363	989	822	1.20	1.05	32%	167	30	138	8
100	Sergei Zubov	1068	1042	827	1.26	1.14	42%	215	78	137	11

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Player	GP	$ESGF	$ESGA	R-ON	R-OFF	EV%	EV+/-	XEV+/-	AEV+/-	AEV+/-/82
Steve Yzerman	1514	1352	1148	1.18	1.09	36%	205	73	131	7
Paul Coffey	1409	1625	1325	1.23	1.20	43%	301	175	126	7
Phil Esposito	1282	1302	1015	1.28	1.25	37%	287	166	121	8
Duncan Keith	913	978	816	1.20	1.08	43%	162	45	118	11
Evgeni Malkin	706	677	532	1.27	1.08	38%	145	29	116	14
Alex Delvecchio	1017	932	865	1.08	0.92	36%	67	-49	116	9
Scott Niedermayer	1263	1169	944	1.24	1.23	39%	225	139	86	6
Jean Beliveau	748	653	490	1.33	1.30	31%	163	97	66	7
Patrick Kane	740	697	576	1.21	1.16	38%	121	61	60	7
Tim Horton	1010	1196	1027	1.16	1.17	48%	169	114	56	5
Johnny Bucyk	1299	1096	1065	1.03	0.98	32%	30	-15	45	3
Brett Hull	1269	1093	995	1.10	1.12	38%	99	75	23	2
Dave Keon	1296	918	848	1.08	1.10	29%	70	54	16	1
Mark Messier	1756	1418	1302	1.09	1.13	33%	116	109	7	0
Gilbert Perreault	1191	980	904	1.08	1.13	36%	76	73	3	0
Bob Gainey	1160	645	525	1.23	1.51	23%	120	155	-35	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

-Messier suffers from two factors – he played on a team with Gretzky for years on a different line, and he had several terrible years at the end of his career. Remove these final years and adjust for the Gretzky factor, and his numbers are closer to Yzerman.

Even still if you put Messier up to Yzerman's level, he's outside the top 100 players. Crosby comes in 22nd. Large gap.




Top ten in scoring & Selke voting (in the same season)

Player	Season	Scoring	Selke
Adam Oates	1993	3	10
Anze Kopitar	2018	7	1
Bobby Clarke	1978	8	2
Brent Sutter	1985	10	8
Bryan Trottier	1981	10	8
Bryan Trottier	1984	8	2
Daniel Alfredsson	2006	4	4
Daniel Alfredsson	2008	9	10
Doug Gilmour	1987	5	6
Doug Gilmour	1993	7	1
Doug Gilmour	1994	4	2
Henrik Zetterberg	2008	6	3
Jari Kurri	1983	9	2
Jari Kurri	1984	7	3
Jari Kurri	1985	2	4
Jari Kurri	1986	4	5
Jari Kurri	1987	2	10
Jari Kurri	1989	8	10
Jeremy Roenick	1992	7	9
Joe Pavelski	2014	8	8
Joe Sakic	2000	8	10
Joe Sakic	2001	2	2
Joe Sakic	2002	5	9
Joe Thornton	2016	4	5
Mark Messier	1992	5	9
Martin St. Louis	2004	1	4
Michel Goulet	1984	3	8
Mike Modano	2002	9	6
Mike Modano	2003	10	6
Nicklas Backstrom	2010	4	10
Nicklas Backstrom	2017	4	7
Patrik Elias	2001	3	8
Pavel Datsyuk	2008	4	1
Pavel Datsyuk	2009	4	1
Pavel Datsyuk	2013	10	3
Peter Forsberg	1998	2	6
Peter Forsberg	1999	4	8
Peter Forsberg	2003	1	4
Rick Middleton	1984	10	4
Ron Francis	1995	5	1
Ron Francis	1996	4	2
Ron Francis	1997	8	8
Ron Francis	1998	5	4
Ryan Getzlaf	2014	2	10
Sergei Fedorov	1994	2	1
Sergei Fedorov	1996	9	1
Sidney Crosby	2016	3	7
Sidney Crosby	2017	2	10
Sidney Crosby	2018	10	9
Steve Yzerman	2000	10	1
Zack Parise	2009	5	8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

-Sid's becoming quite the 2 way player in an all time sense. He's probably not quite as good as those Selke finishes indicate (most scoring line F's who get higher end votes aren't) but the fact remains Sid has long been a 200 foot player. He combines elite offense with solid to good defensive acumen. Messier was a strong PK'er but I don't think there really is much gap if any defensively speaking at ES. Sid is simply a much better offensive talent.




Playoff comparison:

No question Messier still holds an advantage here. But that gap has shrank considerably since 87's back to back titles.

Considering the bulk of MM's career came in the highest scoring era of all time and he played on possibly the greatest offensive team in league history:

Messier is 4th all time in playoff points per game. Crosby is 8th. And Sid never had anything close to what Messier did around him as far as offensive stars.

Messier's raw numbers are much more impressive but that is in large part because he has 236 career games to Crosby's 160. Let's wait and see where Sid ends up when it's all said and done.

Sid has the back to back Smythes. Messier could have easily had more than the one, but Sid's 2009 was very impressive, just slightly less so than Malkin and he was also strong in 2008 when he led the entire postseason in assists and points.

Crosby has 63 Career Multi Point games in playoffs (3rd all time) in 160 games. Mark Messier, 2nd all time, had 77 but in 236 games. If Sid plays near 236, he's going to pass Messier here.

39.3% for Sid
32. 6% for Messier

And again, who was playing in the much more favorable scoring environment?

Messier is better, I just don't think the gap is as wide as people think.


Crosby vs Messier on the international stage:


Crosby simply looks more impressive IMO.

2 Olympic Gold medals in 2 tries (2010/2014)
-Scored Golden goal in OT of gold medal game 2010. Cultural impact of winning gold on your home soil after a terrible showing in 2006 was massive.
-Scored big goal in gold medal game in 2014

1 World Championship Gold (2015)
1 World Cup of Hockey Gold (2016)
-MVP and leading scorer
1 World Junior Gold (2005)

-Also named Best Forward at World Championship in 2006. Something Messier never did in any of his tournaments.

-Youngest Player in history to win a World Championship scoring title (2006). Something Messier never did in any tournament. Crosby led the WC's in scoring in 2006 and the World Cup of hockey in 2016.

-Member of Quadruple Gold Club (Gold medeal at World Junior, WC', Olympics, and WCOH)

-Only player in hockey history to captain every team of the quad/triple gold clubs.

-Orr, Gretzky and Crosby are the three players in history to win the Hart Trophy, the Conn Smythe Trophy, and MVP at the Canada Cup or World Cup of Hockey.

-He is the 6th player in NHL history to win the Stanley Cup three times with two Olympic gold medals. Crosby joins Igor Larionov, Martin Brodeur, Scott Niedermayer, Duncan Keith, and Jonathan Toews as the players who make up that prestigious fraternity

-Crosby has 47 points in 37 senior team games for Canada = 1.27 PPG
-Messier has 32 points in 38 games for Canada = 0.84 PPG

Messier won gold 3 times at Canada Cups in 84, 87, and 91 but never was a top scorer, never made a post tournament AS team. Same thing when Canada was silver in 89 at the WC's or 96 at the WCOH.


Summery:

-Sid clearly has an advantage as a regular season player IMO. You can throw out Gretzky and Lemieux in defense of Messier but even removing them it doesn't alter MM's scoring placements much or award finishes. And Sid could argue he lost 2 of his most prime seasons due to injuries that were literally no fault of his own robbing him of another 2 Harts and Art Ross's and 1 Lindsay.

I still have Messier as the more impressive postseason player. He posted some big numbers, won 6 Cups and had great longevity as a big game player. Perhaps Sid catches/passes him but as of now Messier deserves the nod here.

Sid is the more impressive international player. Better overall results, especially as the captain, massive, massive goal for Canada in 2010. Simply better.

There will only be a few spots separating them for me but Sid has edged past Messier IMHO based on a lot of what I posted above.

Very good post

I agree that i dont see the case for messier above crosby at all

The only negative ill say is for the playoff comparison you seem to be talking about "lets wait and see where Crosby ends up". It should be about right now not projections.

 

[Sentinel]

Winning the SC trumps all the individual honours.

Sure. Devante Smith Pelly >> Henrik Sedin

 

[bobholly39]

This isn't getting any easier for me. I've rotated Bourque back to the "European Quartet" (i.e.: Hašek, Jagr, Lidström, Ovechkin) and it's now 5-to-choose-4. So... I thought I'd pick up some lenses and see how they look through different eyes.

If I was a GM and could sign any of these fellows to a "career-services" contract:
1. Lidström
2. Jagr
3. Bourque
4. Hašek
5. Ovechkin

If I was a GM on the hot-seat, and I could have the white-hot peak of any of these guys because ownership is demanding that I compete for a Stanley Cup right now:
1. Hašek
2. Bourque
3. Jagr
4. Ovechkin
5. Lidström

If I was a coach on a 5-year guaranteed contract and could be assured of a player to be on my roster for the entire 5-year span of my tenure there:
1. Lidström
2. Bourque
3. Jagr
4. Ovechkin
5. Hašek

If I was a lunch-pail 3rd-line LWer, on a three year NMC contract and could choose any of these competitors to be my teammate:
1. Bourque
2. Lidström
3. Jagr
4. Ovechkin
5. Hašek

Looks like I over-valued Ovechkin on my initial list- and am on the verge of doing my first major re-think of a placing re: my preliminary submission.

Are those your top 5 players here - or just 5 that are close to each other with a few other players above? Or - just 5 players you're comparing period, without necessarily all being close? Just curious.

Interesting exercise but i disagree with some rankings.

"career services" - Bourque has one of the best careers/prime in the history of the game. If you're basing this ranking off of longevity mostly (which in itself could be said to be wrong, if you think valuing the peak within the career above all others is what matters most, in which case your rankings are certainly flawed) - I think Bourque should be top 2 easily, and probably #1. Of course though this first question can be reworded to "rank them in an all-time sense" - so i assume this is likely how you rank them if you vote today? At least that's how i take this question to be.

Peak - surprised Bourque is so high. He did peak pretty high, but i'd think both Jagr and Ovi peaked higher than him. I suppose i do like offense though.

5 year contract - assuming best 5 years (and even best consecutive 5 years) - shouldn't lidstrom be dead last, and Hasek possibly still first? Peak generally encompasses up to best 5 years or so - and certainly in their best 5 years you can argue Hasek, Jagr and Ovi above the 2 defenders. In either case i'd at least have Lidstrom last

Probably agree on the last category. Defenders tend to make teammates look good - but it's kind of subjective.

 

[BadgerBruce]

If we had run-downs like yours for all the players in history, the whole endeavor would be much easier and the results more substantiated. Thanks a lot!

Agreed. An outstanding post that is truly valuable to the project participants.

 

[Sentinel]

Ovechkin was on his way to be ''the best player to never win a cup'' and he was approaching this title dangerously at the age he was at.

So was Bourque.

And he didn't even have the excuse of playing on the Atlanta Trashers or other such garbage team.Washington has been strong for most of his career.

Star power is not about personality.Ovechkin sounds a bit over the top; appealing to 20 years olds maybe.Not to me.You grow up you want to be Ovechkin, then you're 35 and you wish you were Crosby.

Charisma is not liked by everybody equally and *is* age-dependent. But there is no question Ovechkin is miles ahead of Crosby in that department. Most kids would rather grow up to be Yngwie Malmstein than John Petrucci (if they knew who they were).

 

[Michael Farkas]

As someone who has volunteered with youth hockey over the past ten years, I can say that there's no strong majority on who kids emulate in this era...

Over the summer, I asked a kid who he wanted to base his game off of and without hesitation, he goes "Casey Cizikas"...

 

[Sentinel]

I also have Shore dropping and think that Shore was more style then substance and his "legend" is more valuable then his talent.

Unless Shore's "legend" has somehow contributed to him winning all those Harts, I don't see how this is a case at all.

 

[MXD]

Shore has dropped quite a lot for me over the last few months. The biggest argument for Shore has always been his Hart record. I don't think that record is as impressive as it seems.

Defencemen received a lot more Hart votes during Shore's era than others. Hart voting is not a good way of comparing defencemen across eras.

Top five finishes in Hart voting for defencemen during their careers

Career	Top five finishes	Top five finishes for any defenceman	Share of nominations	Hart nominated defencemen
Shore	8	29	28%	Clancy, Clapper, Colville, Conacher, Coulter, Dutton, Gardiner, Goodfellow, Hitchman, Johnson, Mantha, Seibert, Shore.
Potvin	2	16	13%	Bourque, Coffey, Howe, Langway, Orr, Park, Potvin, Salming
Bourque	5	13	38%	Bourque, Coffey, Howe, Langway, Pronger
Lidstrom	1	3	33%	Coffey, Lidstrom, Pronger

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Lidstrom and Bourque actually have a higher share of defenceman Hart nominations during their careers than Shore. Defencemen were ten times more likely to be nominated for the Hart during Shore's career than during Lidstrom's. Using unadjusted Hart voting seems like a flawed way of comparing defencemen.

Nitpicking... but important nitpicking.


Clapper : Surprisingly... (irony), Clapper received no support for Hart as a forward. His support came as a D-Men; however, the first year he got consideration was 39-40, Shore's last season (and an incomplete one at that). Not sure if it's fair to list him here. I really wonder what makes this player so much better than Babe Siebert in popular conscience.

Colville : Moved to D past WWII, and never got Hart support as a D-Men anyways. Shouldn't be listed here.

It's worth noting that Goodfellow received Hart support both as a D-Men and as a forward during his careeer. He won the Hart in 39-40 (Shore's swansong) but did receive nomination before.

You also forgot one of Earl Seibert or Babe Siebert.

*... I had more things to say at first because I thought there were more mistakes in your post than there actually was*
* I also a bit ashamed to admit I forgot that Herb Gardiner existed and wondered why exactly you lumped Charlie Gardiner with a group of D-Men*
* Always finish 2nd coffee before reading and posting*

 

[bobholly39]

I'm disappointed in Jagr's resume now that i look more closely. I always thought he had more. Regular season breakdown is:

7 great seasons
Probably 3 really good ones
and a bunch of other seasons (some good, some ok, some impressive for age like 2016, but none super significant).

Maybe I had him too high initially. I mean his great seasons are really great - and I maintain that in terms of peak he probably has a case for #5 all time maybe - but he doesn't have a whole lot outside of that. I need to decide how much importance I want to give to his Art Rosses (and those tend to matter a lot for me) - but at first glance i'm tempted to put both Crosby and Ovi ahead of him for regular seasons. They have him beat on quantity of quality seasons already imo.

 

[Batis]

I'm disappointed in Jagr's resume now that i look more closely. I always thought he had more. Regular season breakdown is:

6 great seasons
Probably 3 really good ones
and a bunch of other seasons (some good, some ok, some impressive for age like 2016, but none super significant).

Maybe I had him too high initially. I mean his great seasons are really great - and I maintain that in terms of peak he probably has a case for #5 all time maybe - but he doesn't have a whole lot outside of that. I need to decide how much importance I want to give to his Art Rosses (and those tend to matter a lot for me) - but at first glance i'm tempted to put both Crosby and Ovi ahead of him for regular seasons. They have him beat on quantity of quality seasons already imo.

I assume that you mean 7 great seasons considering that Jagr has 7 top-2 finishes in the scoring race and finished top-4 in the Hart voting in all of those seasons.

 

[sr edler]

An assessment of post-2010 Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin is my favourite player, so I feel obligated to write about him now that he's available. I've always tried to be as objective as possible when watching him which has lead to some disagreements with other Capitals fans who I feel are a bit disillusioned into still believing he's that player that dominated the league during his first five years. He's a pretty polarizing player... although a lot less so now that the biggest hole in his resume has finally been filled. Everyone can agree that he was a beast up until 2010 (or to be more specific, the 2010 Olympics), but not everyone can agree on his real value since then. I'll be talking in this post about how I feel about him since then - both positively and negatively - and try to give some context to his numbers that can only really be had if you've watched him as much as I have over the years.

Playoff performance
This is less crucial an issue for Ovechkin now that he's a Cup/Smythe winner. But last Spring doesn't invalidate all the years of disappointment the Capitals endured over his career. Again, we can all agree that he was excellent in the postseason during his 2008-2010 peak, and doesn't deserve much blame for those years' failures... rather the fault lies in their then AHL-caliber defense. Since then, though, how much blame can be assigned to Ovechkin? Here are some stats that compare regular season and playoff per-game production among the core Capitals forwards from the 2011 playoffs to the 2015 playoffs:

Player	GPG - Regular	GPG - Playoffs	Diff	PPG - Regular	PPG - Playoffs	Diff	GP - Regular	GP - Playoffs
Ovechkin	0.57	0.36	-0.21	1.01	0.68	-0.33	364	44
Backstrom	0.23	0.14	-0.09	0.95	0.49	-0.46	331	43
Johansson	0.18	0.11	-0.09	0.54	0.34	-0.20	345	44
Semin	0.34	0.30	-0.04	0.76	0.43	-0.33	142	23
Brouwer	0.28	0.09	-0.19	0.52	0.26	-0.26	293	35
Ward	0.21	0.14	-0.07	0.44	0.51	+0.07	276	35
Laich	0.17	0.11	-0.06	0.44	0.43	-0.01	290	37
Chimera	0.15	0.23	-0.08	0.38	0.48	+0.01	369	44

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I didn't include the past three playoffs. I feel like 2016 and especially 2017 weren't poor performances by the team, but rather they just ran into a powerhouse team that would've beaten them regardless. Since I don't really consider them 'disappointments' and the reason they lost is easily attributable to playing an excellent team, I feel like they don't require this level of explanation. To me, the 2011-2015 stretch is much more relevant to look at when assessing Ovechkin's playoff resume.

Based on these stats, Ovechkin does deserve some blame for the failures of these years. This correlates closely with what it looked like to me when watching... the team as a whole had serious offense problems, and while Ovechkin played generally well, he didn't as much as he should've been able to. Their core forwards really underperformed as a whole here, while their main bottom-6ers produced well. Backstrom in particular drops heavily... I'm not being biased when I say that Backstrom was a bigger culprit than Ovechkin during these years, maybe similar to how many say Mikita was a bigger culprit than Hull for the 60s Blackhawks relative lack of success... Backstrom's slow skating made him an easier target for defenses to swarm off the rush resulting in reduced effectiveness.

So on the whole, Ovechkin wasn't the biggest problem, but he was one of the problems. I will add though that 2013 was his worst playoffs easily and was the only time he genuinely performed poorly, he was a ghost at even strength... while the 2015 playoffs he was excellent despite the stats maybe not backing it up. Apart from that, playoff criticism for Ovechkin is fair.


The two anomaly seasons
A lot has been made about the weird two years in the middle of what should've been his prime, where he regressed heavily and became a 30 goal scorer. This is definitely where context is needed... there are a lot of reasons for his production in these two seasons. 2010-2011 Ovechkin was actually an excellent player that was more a victim of circumstance than anything. An abnormally low shooting percentage (he would've had 46 goals had he shot his career average of 12.5%) combined with the Bruce Boudreau's transition from run and gun offense to a trap system meant that Ovechkin's totals were bound for regression. In fact, his totals were affected much less drastically by this system change than the rest of the core's totals. Backstrom went from 101 points to 65. Semin went from a 93 point pace to a 68 point pace. Mike Green went from being over a point per game to under .5 per game. Also worth noting that Ovechkin lead the team in +/- that season. There's no doubt that he wasn't the player he was from 2008-2010, but I would say his play this season was roughly equal to that of his sophomore 'slump' 2007 season. Still dynamic and explosive.

2011-2012 is a different story. There's already been stuff posted about his time in the Hunter trap system. His TOI was reduced by 2 minutes and was sometimes playing fewer than 15 minutes per game when the team was leading. Naturally, this was not the optimal structure for Ovechkin. However, while it's again inevitable that such a system would restrict point totals, it's also true that this was the year he fell off a cliff stylistically. His skating and puck handling abilities took a noticeable step backwards which lead to pretty much a total collapse of his neutral zone transitional abilities. This produced a lot of strange moments where he would attempt to go through the defense like he always did, but his legs and hands wouldn't cooperate, and the defense would just swarm him and clear. Rushes died on his stick almost every time. His possession metrics nosedived. All of this is reflected in the lowest PPG pace of his career at only 26.

On the surface, these two seasons stick out like sore thumbs on Ovechkin's resume... in reality it should only be one season that sticks out. Capitals fans feared that 2011-2012 Ovechkin was what he would be in the future, but thankfully he adapted his game to accommodate his declined physical gifts and became a triggerman rather than a puck carrier.


The Powerplay
I imagine powerplay scoring will be brought up as a strike against Ovechkin, saying that he relies on the powerplay more than others in this vote. This would be valid criticism if he wasn't such an integral part of the powerplay. He makes Washington's powerplay work simply by being on the ice. His shot is the most dangerous weapon he possesses, and is the source of most of his goals, so I won't look deeply into that. Instead, I'll look at some instances of him contributing to the powerplay without even touching the puck. Here's one recent example from this season in a game against the Canucks. It's not an Ovechkin goal; instead, it's a Kuznetsov goal. Look at how the PK is set up here right before Carlson passes to Kuznetsov for the one-timer:

Spoiler

Not a single PKer on Kuznetsov's side of the ice. This is a common trend for Washington on the PP, but I chose this one because this camera view captures this over-coverage nicely. Just by being on the ice, in his usual spot, is enough to leave another teammate totally open.

Another instance of Ovechkin's powerplay value is when teams shadow him. It's funny when I go into other teams' GDTs and see how often they complain about leaving Ovechkin unmarked. They usually say that their team should just leave a guy covering him and make it a 4 on 3... teams have tried this and failed. Again, here's a recent example from this season. This time, a Niskanen goal:

Spoiler

Niskanen is pretty close to where Ovechkin normally is... that's because Ovechkin was being shadowed, and in response to that, purposely took himself completely out of the play, making it a de facto 4 on 3. This space created by Ovechkin taking the shadow PKer to the net allowed for a wide open shot with no PKers available to intercept the pass or to deflect the shot. Watch the video of the goal to see how Ovechkin recognizes that he won't be able to get a good shot off and instead parks next to the net... stick not even on the ice because he knows he's not there to receive a pass... literally standing motionless and doing nothing yet still being the most important skater on the ice.

Ovechkin's contributions to the league's best powerplay in both the regular season and playoffs should be a credit to him, not a strike against. From 2013 onwards, when they switched to their current structure, their powerplay is 1st in the league at 23.9%. In the playoffs, this number rises to 24.4%, good for tops among teams with over 20 playoff games played during this time span. They won a Cup and two President's Trophies with this powerplay as their most dangerous weapon, and Ovechkin is the driving force that makes the powerplay tick; this shouldn't be discredited. Genuine question: has there ever been a PP player whose abilities command as much respect as Ovechkin?


Defense
I'll just go over this part of his game quickly, he's an offensive winger whose main focus isn't defense (like Richard, like Jagr... to varying degrees). The most common complaint is his backchecking, which really isn't fair. He's a competent backchecker... at this point in his career he gets on his horse to backcheck harder than he rushes up ice on an offensive break, I really do mean that... Ovechkin's biggest problem defensively is defensive zone positioning and awareness. Barry Trotz got a lot of credit, undeservedly so IMO, for turning Ovechkin into a responsible 200 foot player. In reality, he went back to playing a steadier version of what he had always been prior to the arrival of Adam Oates as head coach (I could write a lot more words about Oates and other failures of management, but I'll just leave this article here since it sums up the best parts: link).

One of the problems is not having a more solid coaching staff supporting him during his formative years in the league. Coming into his draft, Ovechkin was actually heralded as being a strong 200-foot player (evidence straight from Pierre McGuire and Brian Burke). He just never developed beyond this stage, unfortunately... Glen Hanlon wasn't an NHL-level head coach, and Bruce Boudreau practically encouraged Ovechkin to not play much defense. This has really hurt him now that he can't rely on skating and a 'bull in a china shop' approach to defense.... the fundamentals that should've been developed earlier in his career were never in place. Instead, his only role defensively now is to cover the shot from the left point and not move around much... this results in occasional shot blocks but also means that his line gets hemmed in their zone frequently, which is a problem that has increased with being on Kuznetsov's line rather than Backstrom's, as Kuznetsov is less capable as a defensive centre.

So no, Ovechkin isn't very good defensively. He hasn't been turned into a 200 foot player as he's gotten older... he does block shots sometimes which is good, it's an improvement over the Adam Oates '-35' disaster years, but he's not a strong defensive player. Felt like that needed to be confirmed.

--

I didn't write this to advocate for Alex Ovechkin, rather to just give him as fair an assessment as I could on his career since his peak. I feel like it's useful to gain some context and insight into his production and play style, so that votes are being based less on pure stats or preconceived notions and more on what's really gone on with him. I'll add a couple extra thoughts in another post after this that I couldn't find a good spot for in this long post.

I agree with the assessment that Bäckström probably deserves as much (or perhaps even more) criticism for WSH playoff failures before 17–18, in relation to Ovechkin, and I've have brought up that point in threads during the last few seasons, but at the same time you can't let Ovechkin himself off the hook that easy either (I'm not saying you did, I enjoyed the write up). I mean, didn't Ovechkin look pretty awful (the type of I-don't-even-care-posture awful) in one of the first games against CBJ this last years playoffs when they went down 0 games to 2? And then Holtby came in in game 3 and him and Eller and some other guy turned the game/ship around, and then Kuznetsov started styling on everyone.

I'm just making these arguments in the context of a Jagr vs Ovechkin comparison. Jagr stepped in as a 19-year old sophomore and was PPG+ in the playoffs en route to a Cup with some nice moves/goals in the finals against Chicago too. Yes, that was a stacked team, but again, if we're gonna disqualify every player who won a Cup on a dynasty or a semi-dynasty team, then that's a whole lot of high profile players in this very project.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Done.

Thanks! Not sure why it was giving me so much trouble.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

What about that +63% on the chart there?

Thanks for catching that - updated.

 

[bobholly39]

I agree with the assessment that Bäckström probably deserves as much (or perhaps even more) criticism for WSH playoff failures before 17–18, in relation to Ovechkin, and I've have brought up that point in threads during the last few seasons, but at the same time you can't let Ovechkin himself off the hook that easy either (I'm not saying you did, I enjoyed the write up). I mean, didn't Ovechkin look pretty awful (the type of I-don't-even-care-posture awful) in one of the first games against CBJ this last years playoffs when they went down 0 games to 2? And then Holtby came in in game 3 and him and Eller and some other guy turned the game/ship around, and then Kuznetsov started styling on everyone.

I'm just making these arguments in the context of a Jagr vs Ovechkin comparison. Jagr stepped in as a 19-year old sophomore and was PPG+ in the playoffs en route to a Cup with some nice moves/goals in the finals against Chicago too. Yes, that was a stacked team, but again, if we're gonna disqualify every player who won a Cup on a dynasty or a semi-dynasty team, then that's a whole lot of high profile players in this very project.

Ovechkin did look aweful at the very start of playoffs last year yes. But that's why i hate cherry picking specific games/moments. Maybe if it was a game 7 and you cost your team the season it counts - but the point of seasons (82 games) and playoffs (7 game series) is that you have good and bad games and you have to look at performance overall, and not just individual bad games. If you bounce back - full credits to you, and obviously Ovi bounced back and was extremely clutch all playoffs long.

Regarding Jagr - yes he played well in 91 and 92 but this was all about Lemieux. Is Jagr the highest profile player in the history of the game without a truly heroic individual playoff run? He might be, and that matters imo. I agree we shouldn't discount 91 and 92 - they absolutely count for him. But how great were his contributions to those 2 cups vs say....Messier's contributions in a Gretzky-led edmonton? Lesser. Jagr was less important than Beliveau/Richard/Harvey in most of their cups too, I expect. So he should get merit for it but it was also great timing/fortune to be on such a good team (with Lemieux). Other players who are getting a bump for playing on dynasties so far contributed to those dynasties probably more than a rookie Jagr did in Pitt.

I don't necessarily blame Jagr for the lag of a truly heroic individual playoff run - it's a team sport after all. But it's still net positive for those players who have those (and most in this round do).

 

[DannyGallivan]

And Bourque was like a more physical Lidstrom with better offense, as good defensively and a better longevity where only Howe was better than him. Bourque was a slightly better and more evolved version of Lidstrom.

Agreed, except when was Bourque ever physical. Ever?
Other than that, I concur.

 

[DannyGallivan]

I fail to see what makes Jagr's peak better than Lafleur's, considering the latter continued it throughout the playoffs in grandiose fashion.There's no reason to separate RS and playoffs.

I agree, since I seem to be an island and had Lafleur ahead of Jagr in my list. I had him in my top 10.

 

[sr edler]

Ovechkin did look aweful at the very start of playoffs last year yes. But that's why i hate cherry picking specific games/moments. Maybe if it was a game 7 and you cost your team the season it counts - but the point of seasons (82 games) and playoffs (7 game series) is that you have good and bad games and you have to look at performance overall, and not just individual bad games. If you bounce back - full credits to you, and obviously Ovi bounced back and was extremely clutch all playoffs long.

The point is that he looked bad at the start, and his team went down 0 games to 2, and he wasn't even the main guy for the turnaround (Holtby was). That's just not a very good look. Game 3 even went to double OT, Eller bailed them out. A series is best of 7, yes, but perhaps WSH should be happy they weren't up against a team with more killer instinct then CBJ.

 

[DannyGallivan]

I feel Messier is one of the least talented players who'll rank the highest. And although this may sound as an insult it's actually meant as the opposite. To me he's the poster boy for "accomplished more than expected of based on talent" - and i have no issue putting him up against Mikita or even Bourque/Lidstrom. That being said - I expect it's at least 1 round too early to give him any serious consideration at the top.

While I don't have Messier this high in my list, I am still surprised at the constant stream of negativity (not by you per se, but in general) I read about him in this corner of the forums. The guy accomplished a helluva lot, and as someone who watched his entire career, I can attest that he lived up to his reputation. He had a ton of skill, and if Gordie wasn't knocked for physical intimidation that often went beyond the rule book, then neither should Messier. I think people remember his so-so Vancouver years.

Messier was a beast and a great player. Perhaps not worthy of getting in at this round, but he could skate, stickhandle and shoot, as well as crush.

 

[DannyGallivan]

...But I don't quite know why there's a discussion about this, considering Lafleur isn't up for voting (...and for cause, I might add), and that he's probably not even the best winger who is not yet available.

...um, no.
And now, moving on from Lafleur...

 

[Michael Farkas]

The point is that he looked bad at the start

Worn out from playing like 11 minutes of the 3rd period in a throwaway game 82 vs. New Jersey chasing a hat trick...