Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[MS]

I'm still 100% expecting him to join the Canucks after the NCAA season this year and never play a minute in the AHL.

 

[Vector]

I'm still 100% expecting him to join the Canucks after the NCAA season this year and never play a minute in the AHL.

I just don't see it. That's usually what happens but given the Canucks will be acquiring another one or two defencemen in that time and already have Desharnais signed for next season, it seems like the plan is to slow burn him.

I'd love if I'm wrong since it means he's able to make an impact on a playoff team.

 

[StickShift]

I think he'll be in the AHL for almost the entire season next year.

I think they will trade him first if they think he requires an entire year in the AHL.

This team's window is now. If he isn't capable of having clear NHL impact that will help this team win it all—I think Rutherford and Allvin's modus operandi is to go all-in on players that they think can help them go for it.

The way the roster is constructed they have a clear incentive to make the most of the cheap contracts and peak age curves they have now and add to that roster. See Scenario #1 below.

Yes, I understand that having a cheap-young defenseman would help with when the rest of the roster becomes more expensive, See Scenario #2 below. But that plan also requires on other players remaining healthy, signing reasonable deals so you aren't capped out or getting rid of talent, and that those other players are not falling off a cliff. There's a lot more variables you have to account for.

In short, the case for keeping Willander is only if he makes a big step this year and shows that he can provide immediate NHL impact. If there is still any project-ness about his game we should anticipate him being on the trade block.

	2024- 25	2024- 25	2025- 26	2025- 26	2026- 27	2026- 27	2027- 28	2027- 28
	Level	Salary	Level	Salary	Level	Salary	Level	Salary
Miller	Great	Mid	Great	Mid	Good?	Mid	Good?	Mid
Hughes	Great	Cheap	Great	Cheap	Great	Cheap	Great	Expensive
Pettersson	Good	Expensive	Great	Expensive	Great	Expensive	Great	Expensive
Demko	Great	Cheap	Great	Cheap	Good?	Expensive	Good?	Expensive
Boeser	Great	Mid	Great	Expensive	Great	Expensive	Great	Expensive
Garland	Good	Mid	Good	Mid	Good	Expensive	Good	Expensive
Hronek	Good	Expensive	Good	Expensive	Good	Expensive	Good	Expensive
Scenario #1 Win-now trade	2024- 25 Level	2024- 25 Salary	2025- 26 Level	2025- 26 Salary	2026-27 Level	2026- 27 Salary	2027 -28 Level	2027 -28 Salary
Acquire Top-3 Defensemen (EG, Rasmus Andersson, etc.)	Good	Bargain or Mid	Good	Bargain or Mid	Good	Expensive	Good	Expensive
Willander (traded away)	Bad	Bargain	Mid	Bargain	Mid	Bargain	Mid	Bargain
Scenario #2 Youth immediate impact	2024- 25 Level	2024- 25 Salary	2025- 26 Level	2025- 26 Salary	2026- 27 Level	2026- 27 Salary	2027- 28 Level	2027- 28 Salary
Willander (kept)	Mid	Bargain	Good	Bargain	Good	Bargain	Good	Bargain

 

[WTG]

Back to back games vs ND this weekend should be a good test.

NCHC black-out

Damn

 

[Vector]

@StickShift QUOTE MISATTRIBUTION!

 

[credulous]

I wonder if Willander does a 3rd season in BU instead. Similar to Faber or something.

maybe if he transfers to another program but there's no way he goes back to BU. he'd be sharing the ice with cole hutson and sascha boumedienne again

 

[arttk]

I'm still 100% expecting him to join the Canucks after the NCAA season this year and never play a minute in the AHL.

I think that might be too risky for this management group. Trying to ease a rookie in during a playoff run doesn’t sound like a JR/Allvin thing.

 

[MS]

I just don't see it. That's usually what happens but given the Canucks will be acquiring another one or two defencemen in that time and already have Desharnais signed for next season, it seems like the plan is to slow burn him.

I'd love if I'm wrong since it means he's able to make an impact on a playoff team.

I think that might be too risky for this management group. Trying to ease a rookie in during a playoff run doesn’t sound like a JR/Allvin thing.

To be clear, I'm not saying he'll be a roster regular or play every game. But I think he'll be signed, added to the roster, and play some games this year.

 

[ManVanFan]

NCHC black-out

Damn

It will be "onhockey dot tv"

 

[HockeyWooot]

"He will erase your past to protect your future."

"Tom Willander is: The Eraser"


View attachment 920516
"

“Relax, you’ve been erased!”

 

[WTG]

It will be "onhockey dot tv"

Just not the replay

 

[VanJack]

Watching the current Canuck blueline struggle mightily at times this season they'd be crazy to sell on Willander.

I mean how many seasons can you keep signing UFA's like Cole, Forbort, Desharnais, Soucy and even Myers, who'll be 35 before the end of the current season?

You simply can't acquire much more than 'stop-gap' solutions these days when it comes to trading or signing d-men in the NHL. Legit top-four d-men are too valuable to trade, and even if you acquire a guy like Zadorov at the TDL for valuable draft picks, chances are you won't be able to re-sign him.

So the only way to upgrade your blueline, is through the draft. And when you finally find a good one, particularly a right-shot defender like Wilander, you hold on for dear life.

 

[Hodgy]

To be clear, I'm not saying he'll be a roster regular or play every game. But I think he'll be signed, added to the roster, and play some games this year.

Have you watched him in the NCAA much? I know you were quite high on him at the draft, but from a birds eye view and without watching him, I am not sure he is progressing as you'd expect a top prospect would. Seems to be tracking as more of a second pairing defensemen rather than a top pairing defensemen which would be disappointing given where he was draft in what was billed as an historically deep draft. Take this with a grain of salt though as I am relying on other summaries / stats, etc., and not direct viewing.

 

[MS]

Have you watched him in the NCAA much? I know you were quite high on him at the draft, but from a birds eye view and without watching him, I am not sure he is progressing as you'd expect a top prospect would. Seems to be tracking as more of a second pairing defensemen rather than a top pairing defensemen which would be disappointing given where he was draft in what was billed as an historically deep draft. Take this with a grain of salt though as I am relying on other summaries / stats, etc., and not direct viewing.

I watched a couple NCAA games last year plus his WJC games where he was outstanding so probably 10 games total. I haven't watched the games this year.

What I saw last year was a player whose IQ and mobility was very close to the NHL and just needed to physically fill out a bit. I've said here for years that I think most people are really shit at looking for what actually makes NHL defenders effective and instead focus on POINTS and PP TIME and HE MADE A BAD PASS IN THE OFFENSIVE ZONE TO KILL THE PLAY THERE.

Watching him at the WJCs (and the U18s the year before) his skating is absolutely elite and his positional IQ defensively spot on and the play is rarely on the wrong side of him. And even if his puck skills aren't quite where people would want, he's hardly a Forbort/Juulsen with the puck on his stick. I think his skating/IQ will play up huge moving up levels and he's exceedingly likely to be the sort of top-pairing defender that people always call a 2nd pairing defender because they don't score wads of PP points - see Hamhuis, Brodin, etc.

 

[arttk]

I watched a couple NCAA games last year plus his WJC games where he was outstanding so probably 10 games total. I haven't watched the games this year.

What I saw last year was a player whose IQ and mobility was very close to the NHL and just needed to physically fill out a bit. I've said here for years that I think most people are really shit at looking for what actually makes NHL defenders effective and instead focus on POINTS and PP TIME and HE MADE A BAD PASS IN THE OFFENSIVE ZONE TO KILL THE PLAY THERE.

Watching him at the WJCs (and the U18s the year before) his skating is absolutely elite and his positional IQ defensively spot on and the play is rarely on the wrong side of him. And even if his puck skills aren't quite where people would want, he's hardly a Forbort/Juulsen with the puck on his stick. I think his skating/IQ will play up huge moving up levels and he's exceedingly likely to be the sort of top-pairing defender that people always call a 2nd pairing defender because they don't score wads of PP points - see Hamhuis, Brodin, etc.

Elite skating and elite defensive IQ together in a D with NHL size is exceedingly rare. With those characteristics, even if he only has the stick skill of Forbort, he would still be a 2nd pairing guy.

 

[ManVanFan]

Elite skating and elite defensive IQ together in a D with NHL size is exceedingly rare. With those characteristics, even if he only has the stick skill of Forbort, he would still be a 2nd pairing guy.

I really like his ability to get his stick on puck to break up plays, then good at using body position.

 

[Diversification]

Okay. Just watched all his shifts from his first 4 games.

My 2 cents: Willander is a cerebral defense-first defender with a very nice set of tools - 4 way mobility, physicality, solid puck skills and smooth passing. As a defensive defender, he's not a very exciting player to watch. Very low event when he's on the ice and it's because he reads the play so well. Always in position. Off puck in his own zone, makes himself available as the release valve. Basically no brain farts through 4 games. Just consistently head on a swivel reading the play and keeping himself on the right side of the puck.

The downside is that this can lead to a passivity in his game that isn't great. He's at his best when he uses those great reads to assert himself and make strong physical plays. He did a great job of that in games vs. Holy Cross and UConn. Not so much vs. Union and Harvard.

As for those hoping that he'll come into his own as an offensive force in college hockey, I just don't see it. There's a reason he's PP2 (he's PK1). Cole Hutson is just so much more offensively dynamic and has built-in chemistry with Cole Eiserman from their US NTDP days. He's not going to beat out Hutson on that front and as I follow him this season, that's not what I'm going to watch out for. Rather, I'm going to see if he can be more consistently assertive both offensively and defensively. If he can, I think this kid can not only play 3rd pairing in the NHL by the end of the season, he can probably anchor a 3rd pairing at this stage.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Okay. Just watched all his shifts from his first 4 games.

My 2 cents: Willander is a cerebral defense-first defender with a very nice set of tools - 4 way mobility, physicality, solid puck skills and smooth passing. As a defensive defender, he's not a very exciting player to watch. Very low event when he's on the ice and it's because he reads the play so well. Always in position. Off puck in his own zone, makes himself available as the release valve. Basically no brain farts through 4 games. Just consistently head on a swivel reading the play and keeping himself on the right side of the puck.

The downside is that this can lead to a passivity in his game that isn't great. He's at his best when he uses those great reads to assert himself and make strong physical plays. He did a great job of that in games vs. Holy Cross and UConn. Not so much vs. Union and Harvard.

As for those hoping that he'll come into his own as an offensive force in college hockey, I just don't see it. There's a reason he's PP2 (he's PK1). Cole Hutson is just so much more offensively dynamic and has built-in chemistry with Cole Eiserman from their US NTDP days. He's not going to beat out Hutson on that front and as I follow him this season, that's not what I'm going to watch out for. Rather, I'm going to see if he can be more consistently assertive both offensively and defensively. If he can, I think this kid can not only play 3rd pairing in the NHL by the end of the season, he can probably anchor a 3rd pairing at this stage.

So:

No to a passive Willy.
Yes to an active Willy.

 

[Diversification]

So:

No to a passive Willy.
Yes to an active Willy.