Confirmed with Link: Toffoli to CGY for Emil Heineman, Tyler Pitlick + Picks (Part 2)

[lamp9post]

Not sure they're trying to finish at the bottom with the MSl trade.

The main reason for trading Tofu now, imo, is if you think his value won't go up because he won't produce more than he is this season going forward because the team is bad.

I think another reason is the the projected trajectory of the team and development of Heineman and whoever we pick with the 1st over the next couple seasons. Toffoli is signed for this season plus two more, so options were to trade him now, in one year (2023) or in two years (2024). If we trade him now, the return for him could potentially be competing for roster spots in 2024. We trade him in 2024 and the return likely won't make an impact until at least 2026. I don't think Hughes/Gorton are looking at that kind of time horizon.

 

[Vachon23]

 

[HuGort]

I think they had to trade Toffoli where he wanted to go. Toffoli took less money to sign here. Bergs got a break on his contract. A benefit of playing in the Bubble. Corey Perry also signed here because of that

 

[KevSkillz4]

I really like this trade. Hockey IQ is a important thing to me and Heineman looks have good hockey IQ. His style can perfectly fit on NHL ice, he is don't afraid to hit too. Great shot and great skating ability. Looks in the same tier of prospect like Jesse Ylonen, that's pretty good .

1st pick is a 1st pick, Calgary can lose early in playoffs, even they looks pretty good.

Imagine grab a player like Luca DelBelBelluz, Jack Hughes, Tristan Luneau, Ty Nelson (and more) with that pick, that would be pretty good add.

 

[Ezpz]

Toffoli's speed won't let him stay relevant into his 30's. It was a good call to sell at max value. I don't think he fits what we're going for anyways from the way Hughes/MSL talk about building with speed. We saw with Pittsburgh's back-to-back that they fell off as soon as they started putting slow guys who couldn't follow the system in the lineup.

 

[Adam Michaels]

After some info the insiders were able to share, the deal initially being worked on between Habs and Flames was Toffoli + Chiarot + McNiven going to Calgary.

 

[Naslund]

Great trade. Very happy with the return. Very happy for Toffoli to be in a good spot in Calgary.

 

[The Great Weal]

After some info the insiders were able to share, the deal initially being worked on between Habs and Flames was Toffoli + Chiarot + McNiven going to Calgary.

Yikes that's kind of scary considering the Flames were totally unwilling to trade away Pelletier.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Yikes that's kind of scary considering the Flames were totally unwilling to trade away Pelletier.

I imagine that is why the deal ended up being for Toffoli only. Habs may have been asking for Pelletier +++ and Calgary wasn't ready to do that.

 

[habsfan44]

I really like this trade. Hockey IQ is a important thing to me and Heineman looks have good hockey IQ. His style can perfectly fit on NHL ice, he is don't afraid to hit too. Great shot and great skating ability. Looks in the same tier of prospect like Jesse Ylonen, that's pretty good .

1st pick is a 1st pick, Calgary can lose early in playoffs, even they looks pretty good.

Imagine grab a player like Luca DelBelBelluz, Jack Hughes, Tristan Luneau, Ty Nelson (and more) with that pick, that would be pretty good add.

Exactly , I also believe some are missing the cap implications , most of Pitlicks contract can be buried in the minors this year and being a pending UFA eventually clears 4.25 million off the cap for next year . I wonder if Hughes was looking at Toffoli as a cap dump with benefits ?

 

[dcyhabs]

I imagine that is why the deal ended up being for Toffoli only. Habs may have been asking for Pelletier +++ and Calgary wasn't ready to do that.

I think the habs have enough small skilled guys and picking up Pelletier would have added to the queue but not really helped the team. Adding Heineman brings a different, not necessarily better, but different, skillset. You rarely get all star players so you need a mix of skills, physical players, playmakers, snipers, puck retrievers. The habs have lots of small, skilled guys, both in the NHL and coming up. They need some guys who can open some space for those guys.

 

[Alexandre Magny]

Heineman injury or ??

 

[26Mats]

I think the habs have enough small skilled guys and picking up Pelletier would have added to the queue but not really helped the team. Adding Heineman brings a different, not necessarily better, but different, skillset. You rarely get all star players so you need a mix of skills, physical players, playmakers, snipers, puck retrievers. The habs have lots of small, skilled guys, both in the NHL and coming up. They need some guys who can open some space for those guys.

We have still only have Caufield and Suzuki as sure bet top sixers. No guarantee Roy and Farrell make it. So I'd prioritize getting top 6 talent regardless of size.

But anyways Pelletier wasn't available and I'm hopeful Heineman can be a good 3rd liner that may be able to get us 17-20 goals.

 

[dcyhabs]

We have still only have Caufield and Suzuki as sure bet top sixers. No guarantee Roy and Farrell make it. So I'd prioritize getting top 6 talent regardless of size.

But anyways Pelletier wasn't available and I'm hopeful Heineman can be a good 3rd liner that may be able to get us 17-20 goals.

I'm not talking only prospects, Hoffman, Drouin, Gallagher, Caufield, even Suzuki isn't big. Only Anderson brings size and toughness. Making the habs as a small scorer is going to be competitive for another few years, but making the habs top 6 as a physical puck retrieval guy is a way lower bar to clear. You can't draft for need but you have to trade for need.

 

[26Mats]

I'm not talking only prospects, Hoffman, Drouin, Gallagher, Caufield, even Suzuki isn't big. Only Anderson brings size and toughness. Making the habs as a small scorer is going to be competitive for another few years, but making the habs top 6 as a physical puck retrieval guy is a way lower bar to clear. You can't draft for need but you have to trade for need.

I only care about the long term, because this team isn't going places short term.

Drouin, Hoffman and Gallagher are irrelevant to me. I wouldn't make any decisions whatsoever based on mediocre players like them, such as giving anaemia 3.5M AAV because I like his size and puck retrieval skills.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I think the habs have enough small skilled guys and picking up Pelletier would have added to the queue but not really helped the team. Adding Heineman brings a different, not necessarily better, but different, skillset. You rarely get all star players so you need a mix of skills, physical players, playmakers, snipers, puck retrievers. The habs have lots of small, skilled guys, both in the NHL and coming up. They need some guys who can open some space for those guys.

Heineman is easily a 1st rounder in a redraft and could very well be better than Pelletier. I completely agree on not targeting more small forwards as the only goal should be the Stanley Cup and small teams never win it.You can have a couple of small guys but they shouldn't be your best players and they should be willing to pay the price.

 

[Gally11]

Exactly , I also believe some are missing the cap implications , most of Pitlicks contract can be buried in the minors this year and being a pending UFA eventually clears 4.25 million off the cap for next year . I wonder if Hughes was looking at Toffoli as a cap dump with benefits ?

Definitely. They must see at the very least Ylonen as a replacement player so that buys them 3.5 mil in cap space to spend elsewhere where they feel like they can get more value in the difference of that spend and difference in production. That’s typically how you should be managing a cap anyway.

 

[Wats]

Toffoli's speed won't let him stay relevant into his 30's. It was a good call to sell at max value. I don't think he fits what we're going for anyways from the way Hughes/MSL talk about building with speed. We saw with Pittsburgh's back-to-back that they fell off as soon as they started putting slow guys who couldn't follow the system in the lineup.

Toffoli doesn't thrive on his speed, IMO it's actually the opposite. Toffoli will be good even after he gets slower since he can outthink. For me, Anderson/Byron on the other hand rely on their speed and better fit the 'they won't stay relevant if they get slower' narrative.

 

[Ezpz]

Toffoli doesn't thrive on his speed, IMO it's actually the opposite. Toffoli will be good even after he gets slower since he can outthink. Anderson/Byron on the other relies on their speed and fit the won't stay relevant if the get slower narrative.

My point was more he's already slow and slowing down more will push him out of the league. Like kovalchuk with us.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

My point was more he's already slow and slowing down more will push him out of the league. Like kovalchuk with us.

Toffoli still in his 20s. Kovalchuk was almost 40.

 

[Wats]

My point was more he's already slow and slowing down more will push him out of the league. Like kovalchuk with us.

Not sure I agree. Kovalchuk on the other hand lit up the NHL before he became slow. I think part of the reason why Toffoli is having best production of his career last 2-3 years vs as a younger faster player is partly of him growing smarter. He was never fast so don't see how he'll lose that much speed any time soon, he's 29 and doesn't really play a style that gets him injured too. I don't think waiting until draft/summer (more teams to trade him to so maybe better return) would have been an issue.

I do agree selling high is good though. Anderson for example is someone I'd move before he falls off and becomes Rene Bourque. We saw what happened to Subban too. Anderson's highly dependent on speed. If his shot was elite like Pacioretty then may I'd think he can still be effective as a 30+ year old.

 

[Habs Halifax]

After some info the insiders were able to share, the deal initially being worked on between Habs and Flames was Toffoli + Chiarot + McNiven going to Calgary.

I've seen this rumor as well but then I wonder, what cap dump was coming the other way? Flames didn't have room to add both Toffoli and Chiarot. It's possible the Flames might be able to fit Chiarot in on deadline day after we retain 50% and they accrue more cap space.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Not sure I agree. Kovalchuk on the other hand lit up the NHL before he became slow. I think part of the reason why Toffoli is having best production of his career last 2-3 years vs as a younger faster player is partly of him growing smarter. He was never fast so don't see how he'll lose that much speed any time soon, he's 29 and doesn't really play a style that gets him injured too. I don't think waiting until draft/summer (more teams to trade him to so maybe better return) would have been an issue.

I do agree selling high is good though. Anderson for example is someone I'd move before he falls off and becomes Rene Bourque. We saw what happened to Subban too. Anderson's highly dependent on speed. If his shot was elite like Pacioretty then may I'd think he can still be effective as a 30+ year old.

Anderson is not going to become Bourque. And he's signed from 27-32. It's a little different if he was signed from 29-35. The return would have to be something we can't refuse and that's a much higher return than what we got for Toffoli.

Anderson's numbers with the Habs prorated to a 82 game season:
* 27 goals and 41 pts.
* Factor in how we have bounced him all over the roster over the last two seasons and then look at his numbers with Suzuki/Caufield in a stable spot.

Why don't you like Anderson's shot?

 

[Wats]

Anderson is not going to become Bourque. And he's signed from 27-32. It's a little different if he was signed from 29-35. The return would have to be something we can't refuse and that's a much higher return than what we got for Toffoli.

Anderson's numbers with the Habs prorated to a 82 game season:
* 27 goals and 41 pts.
* Factor in how we have bounced him all over the roster over the last two seasons and then look at his numbers with Suzuki/Caufield in a stable spot.

Why don't you like Anderson's shot?

Obviously like I said in the post you quoted, the goal is to sell high. The expectation is an great return, overpayment from a desperate for grit playoff team.

My take is Anderson is more likely to regress before Toffoli. Style of play, age, comparables and apparent hockey IQ is the basis of hypothesis. Feel like trading him this year is best route for team's future, maximize value.

Bourque was effective from age 24-31 and fell off when he lost a step. Sorry not really sure what you are trying to show with your ages/contact comparison. Bourque is just an example of players in the similar mould regressing sooner due to style of play not being as good when you become slower. Obviously Anderson is more physical and Bourque more skilled but it's way the play offense that I'm more focused on. Hard nose players break down, no one should have been surprised when Shaw started getting injury issues. No one should be surprised if Gallagher gets more injury prone.

Anderson gets his shots from using his speed to create seperation and not sure he can score as much if he loses a step. He doesn't really have that Caufield/Pacioretty/Hoffman type release where you know a heavy shot can come from anywhere with little space.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Obviously like I said in the post you quoted, the goal is to sell high. The expectation is an great return, overpayment from a desperate for grit playoff team.

My take is Anderson is more likely to regress before Toffoli. Style of play, age, comparables and apparent hockey IQ is the basis of hypothesis. Feel like trading him this year is best route for team's future, maximize value.

Bourque was effective from age 24-31 and fell off when he lost a step. Sorry not really sure what you are trying to show with your ages/contact comparison. Bourque is just an example of players in the similar mould regressing sooner due to style of play not being as good when you become slower. Obviously Anderson is more physical and Bourque more skilled but it's way the play offense that I'm more focused on. Hard nose players break down, no one should have been surprised when Shaw started getting injury issues. No one should be surprised if Gallagher gets more injury prone.

Anderson gets his shots from using his speed to create seperation and not sure he can score as much if he loses a step. He doesn't really have that Caufield/Pacioretty/Hoffman type release where you know a heavy shot can come from anywhere with little space.

Personally, I'm not worried about Anderson from age 27-32. Anderson is needed and he can provide protection to our youth. Hoffman can't do that.

I think you are undervaluing Anderson. There are no guarantees in life yes but Bourque is a bad example. He never had the skating Anderson has and his shot is much better than Bourque. His goal scoring power was never as good as Anderson as well.