Confirmed with Link: Toffoli to CGY for Emil Heineman, Tyler Pitlick + Picks (Part 2)

[Karma Police]

In all the posts, never seen once someone bring up the possibility that Toffoli may have asked to be traded to a team in canada that he thought was a contender?

 

[Kojo]

Why not trade guys like Petry or Hoffman or Armia 0r Drouin or Byron or Price or Allen or Chiarot or Gallagher or Dvorak then ? Plenty of other players to give you tat cap space.

Some of the players you mentioned are untradeable. Petry, Price, Gallagher, etc.

 

[1909]

Some of the players you mentioned are untradeable. Petry, Price, Gallagher, etc.

And some are....

 

[Whitesnake]

If you want to be making the playoffs next year, you keep Toffoli.
If you don't care about it, you trade him. But you have to get more than late 1st and future 3rd liner.

That's how I see it. If the late 1st and Heineman becomes more than fillers, than it's a win-win. Right now, I don't see how a 30-goal scorer on a superb contract CANNOT give you a top 3 pick. ESPECIALLY since we are not talking Zegras type of top 3 picks either. It,s Pelletier, Zary or Coronato.

Mind you, again, If Heineman becomes top 6. And if that pick becomes also top end like, nobody will remember Tyler's name. Get that Nicolas/Ramage going, and make sure Heineman becomes more than a 3rd liner...

 

[Miller Time]

That's how I see it. If the late 1st and Heineman becomes more than fillers, than it's a win-win. Right now, I don't see how a 30-goal scorer on a superb contract CANNOT give you a top 3 pick. ESPECIALLY since we are not talking Zegras type of top 3 picks either. It,s Pelletier, Zary or Coronato.

- toffoli has scored 30 goals 1x in his career

- pacioretty, who had 4x 30+ goal seasons, returned a prospect picked 13th overall a year earlier (attempts at getting glass, a 6th overall pick, didn't work)

- Pelletier 26th, Zary 24th, Coronato 13th

I think you might be overestimating Toffoli's worth... or underestimating what it costs to get a "top 3 pick"

Zucker trade to Pitt is probably the closest comparable recently, and the toffoli return was very comparable (later 1st, good prospect, cap dump).

Toffoli running hot on a flames team that is clicking on all cylinders makes it seem underwhelming, but I doubt there was a much better offer out there & it appears our management is high on Heineman... time will tell if their evaluation proves accurate, but value-wise at time of the deal, hard to knock it.

The hindsight game is always in Flux...

Toffoli going ppg with flames... trade awful.

Flames losing in first round, Habs pick 17-20... trade better

Flames win cup, Habs pick 32nd... trade worse.

Heineman injury derailing career a la ikonen, trade awful.

Heineman becoming solid top 6 nhler with =/better productivity than Toffoli's 25g/50pt career pace... trade great.

& so on.

Bottom line imo, 1st + prospect with high top 9 likelihood = good value

 

[26Mats]

- toffoli has scored 30 goals 1x in his career

- pacioretty, who had 4x 30+ goal seasons, returned a prospect picked 13th overall a year earlier (attempts at getting glass, a 6th overall pick, didn't work)

- Pelletier 26th, Zary 24th, Coronato 13th

I think you might be overestimating Toffoli's worth... or underestimating what it costs to get a "top 3 pick"

Zucker trade to Pitt is probably the closest comparable recently, and the toffoli return was very comparable (later 1st, good prospect, cap dump).

Toffoli running hot on a flames team that is clicking on all cylinders makes it seem underwhelming, but I doubt there was a much better offer out there & it appears our management is high on Heineman... time will tell if their evaluation proves accurate, but value-wise at time of the deal, hard to knock it.

The hindsight game is always in Flux...

Toffoli going ppg with flames... trade awful.

Flames losing in first round, Habs pick 17-20... trade better

Flames win cup, Habs pick 32nd... trade worse.

Heineman injury derailing career a la ikonen, trade awful.

Heineman becoming solid top 6 nhler with =/better productivity than Toffoli's 25g/50pt career pace... trade great.

& so on.

Bottom line imo, 1st + prospect with high top 9 likelihood = good value

I agree that Toffoli doesn't have Pacioretty's pedigree. But since leaving LA, he was really successful in Vancouver and Montresl. Of course this year his numbers are down, but that could be due to playing for a shit team, like he did in LA.

So what he's doing now may be the norm. He may be a 35 to 40 goal scorer now, irrespective of his past numbers. So, might have been better to keep him and hope he establishes himself as just that. But maybe he wouldn't have done that here.

I'm glad Caufield is clicking with Suzuki again, now that Toffoli has been moved out - and Anderson too. We would have needed to go out and get sn established center with speed to form a good 2nd line with Toffoli, and you don't do that when you're rebuilding.

 

[Miller Time]

I agree that Toffoli doesn't have Pacioretty's pedigree. But since leaving LA, he was really successful in Vancouver and Montresl. Of course this year his numbers are down, but that could be due to playing for a shit team, like he did in LA.

So what he's doing now may be the norm. He may be a 35 to 40 goal scorer now, irrespective of his past numbers. So, might have been better to keep him and hope he establishes himself as just that. But maybe he wouldn't have done that here.

I'm glad Caufield is clicking with Suzuki again, now that Toffoli has been moved out - and Anderson too. We would have needed to go out and get sn established center with speed to form a good 2nd line with Toffoli, and you don't do that when you're rebuilding.

I'd have gladly kept Toffoli... he was the last vet that "needed" to go.

If anything, I question the decision to trade him... I'm just suggesting that the return we got in trading him seems like reasonable value considering the decision to make him available.

 

[dcyhabs]

The Toffoli trade was an admission that they won’t contend any time soon. Most prospects are at least two years out. At this point they want to see what they can get for anyone over 30.

Toffoli was a message they were selling and trading him to a good situation where he could thrive makes it easier to trade other vets, more so now that everyone is playing better. It also helps signing players later by showing they’ll consider the players’ interests.

 

[salbutera]

Why not trade guys like Petry or Hoffman or Armia 0r Drouin or Byron or Price or Allen or Chiarot or Gallagher or Dvorak then ? Plenty of other players to give you tat cap space.

There has to be a team willing to fully absorb remaining term & yield to Habs asking price.

Cgy was for Toffoli (1st rounder + taking on remaining 2-years without any retention)

Chiarot & Allen will get dealt by deadline with an outside shot of Dvorak IMO - and I expect Byron & Drouin will be traded by next deadline as they approach UFA

 

[salbutera]

The Toffoli trade was an admission that they won’t contend any time soon. Most prospects are at least two years out. At this point they want to see what they can get for anyone over 30.

Toffoli was a message they were selling and trading him to a good situation where he could thrive makes it easier to trade other vets, more so now that everyone is playing better. It also helps signing players later by showing they’ll consider the players’ interests.

Their goal is to vie for playoffs starting next season, a contending team will take time & internal organic growth.

Clearly Hughes / Gorton viewed Toffoli as a depreciating asset going fwd

 

[BLONG7]

Their goal is to vie for playoffs starting next season, a contending team will take time & internal organic growth.

Clearly Hughes / Gorton viewed Toffoli as a depreciating asset going fwd

I think they base most of this, on his foot speed, or lack of. They have come right out, and said, we will be a fast hockey team..........I loved Toffolli, but he does not fit their narrative.
These new guys have a plan, and some vision moving forward. This, is something we have lacked for 10 years.
They have their work cut out for them, the cap situation alone, will create alot of work for them, to deal with.
I still like the philosophy of using TWO executives brain power, and expertise, as compared to the gong show with a clown running the show.

 

[Whitesnake]

- toffoli has scored 30 goals 1x in his career

- pacioretty, who had 4x 30+ goal seasons, returned a prospect picked 13th overall a year earlier (attempts at getting glass, a 6th overall pick, didn't work)

- Pelletier 26th, Zary 24th, Coronato 13th

I think you might be overestimating Toffoli's worth... or underestimating what it costs to get a "top 3 pick"

Zucker trade to Pitt is probably the closest comparable recently, and the toffoli return was very comparable (later 1st, good prospect, cap dump).

Toffoli running hot on a flames team that is clicking on all cylinders makes it seem underwhelming, but I doubt there was a much better offer out there & it appears our management is high on Heineman... time will tell if their evaluation proves accurate, but value-wise at time of the deal, hard to knock it.

The hindsight game is always in Flux...

Toffoli going ppg with flames... trade awful.

Flames losing in first round, Habs pick 17-20... trade better

Flames win cup, Habs pick 32nd... trade worse.

Heineman injury derailing career a la ikonen, trade awful.

Heineman becoming solid top 6 nhler with =/better productivity than Toffoli's 25g/50pt career pace... trade great.

& so on.

Bottom line imo, 1st + prospect with high top 9 likelihood = good value

Yeah....that's hockey and that's life though. You always do have to revisit trades once in a while to know how it went down. Having a 3rd overall pick is great. Drafting a need instead of BPA and using it as a need means bad. And so on. Life is an ongoing analysis. Not sure why trades shouldn't be.

In the end, Toffoli is a top 6 player. Proven. Under a very very good salary. End of 1st round, based on stats, do NOT usually give you a top end player. Top 6 player. Very good salary. Not a rental. And you gete end of 1st round of a 2022 ordinairy draft. And maybe a 3rd liner. Just saying...I don't see it as great value. Not in hindsight. Right now. I said it at the time of the draft. BEFORE Toffoli's PPG. His performance just enforces my point.

Now, yes, it's going to be revisited. Just like the Drouin deal was. Just like the Rivet deal was. Just like....every other deal. Not sure why this one should be different.

In the end, as it's always for me, it's less about players. It's all about strategy. You sell. Fine. You don't because you think that MSL is finally a miracle worker, in the summer, you WILL be looking for a player like Toffoli. That's the only thing I'm saying.

 

[salbutera]

Yeah....that's hockey and that's life though. You always do have to revisit trades once in a while to know how it went down. Having a 3rd overall pick is great. Drafting a need instead of BPA and using it as a need means bad. And so on. Life is an ongoing analysis. Not sure why trades shouldn't be.

In the end, Toffoli is a top 6 player. Proven. Under a very very good salary. End of 1st round, based on stats, do NOT usually give you a top end player. Top 6 player. Very good salary. Not a rental. And you gete end of 1st round of a 2022 ordinairy draft. And maybe a 3rd liner. Just saying...I don't see it as great value. Not in hindsight. Right now. I said it at the time of the draft. BEFORE Toffoli's PPG. His performance just enforces my point.

Now, yes, it's going to be revisited. Just like the Drouin deal was. Just like the Rivet deal was. Just like....every other deal. Not sure why this one should be different.

In the end, as it's always for me, it's less about players. It's all about strategy. You sell. Fine. You don't because you think that MSL is finally a miracle worker, in the summer, you WILL be looking for a player like Toffoli. That's the only thing I'm saying.

I don’t believe they will at all be looking for a Toffoli that’s my belief. Gorton / Hughes IMO will follow one of two paths: either swing for the fences on a Hertl or go for short term (3-year) veteran talent to aid the organic growth of the team (Letang + one of Bergeron / Malkin).

In either case the option will possess pace & tempo combined w skill.

If neither of those attempts pan out, it’ll be business as usual w internal organic growth focus and waiting out the clock for player development

 

[salbutera]

I think they base most of this, on his foot speed, or lack of. They have come right out, and said, we will be a fast hockey team..........I loved Toffolli, but he does not fit their narrative.
These new guys have a plan, and some vision moving forward. This, is something we have lacked for 10 years.
They have their work cut out for them, the cap situation alone, will create alot of work for them, to deal with.
I still like the philosophy of using TWO executives brain power, and expertise, as compared to the gong show with a clown running the show.

I agree - law of diminishing returns going fwd in Gorton / Hughes’ view

 

[Not The One]

I've said it at the time of the trade, but apparently that wasn't very popular at the time because everyone wanted picks, picks and more picks...

What are the chances of drafting someone as good as Toffoli with our late 1st round pick? The last player drafted by the Habs that scored at the rate Toffoli did last year was Pacioretty.

The was absolutely no reason to trade Toffoli. He was far from the biggest problem on the team and the cap saved is minuscule and it would cost far more to replace his production from free agency. It was purely a tanking move... but now they are talking about retooling so it seems they may be regretting it after only a few weeks.

 

[BLONG7]

I've said it at the time of the trade, but apparently that wasn't very popular at the time because everyone wanted picks, picks and more picks...

What are the chances of drafting someone as good as Toffoli with our late 1st round pick? The last player drafted by the Habs that scored at the rate Toffoli did last year was Pacioretty.

The was absolutely no reason to trade Toffoli. He was far from the biggest problem on the team and the cap saved is minuscule and it would cost far more to replace his production from free agency. It was purely a tanking move... but now they are talking about retooling so it seems they may be regretting it after only a few weeks.

They wanted and needed capspace for next year also.....agree with what you are saying for sure, but as mentioned he does not fit into the style of team they want.
But, hard to let a guy like that go....I do get it........

 

[salbutera]

I've said it at the time of the trade, but apparently that wasn't very popular at the time because everyone wanted picks, picks and more picks...

What are the chances of drafting someone as good as Toffoli with our late 1st round pick? The last player drafted by the Habs that scored at the rate Toffoli did last year was Pacioretty.

The was absolutely no reason to trade Toffoli. He was far from the biggest problem on the team and the cap saved is minuscule and it would cost far more to replace his production from free agency. It was purely a tanking move... but now they are talking about retooling so it seems they may be regretting it after only a few weeks.

The reality of the situation is Weber’s contract will be exchanged + Toffoli’s $4M + Chiarot’s $3.5M cap hit provides over $15M to go shopping in UFA market, that IMO is the real strategy.

Drouin & Byron will be jettisoned in the next year at some point, that’s another $8.5M to buy additional cap flexibility going fwd.

 

[Not The One]

They wanted and needed capspace for next year also.....agree with what you are saying for sure, but as mentioned he does not fit into the style of team they want.
But, hard to let a guy like that go....I do get it........

The reality of the situation is Weber’s contract will be exchanged + Toffoli’s $4M + Chiarot’s $3.5M cap hit provides over $15M to go shopping in UFA market, that IMO is the real strategy.

Drouin & Byron will be jettisoned in the next year at some point, that’s another $8.5M to buy additional cap flexibility going fwd.

Where exactly are they supposed to find a UFA that would bring more goals/cap than Toffoli at $4M? The costs of bringing in a big name will obviously be super inflated for what he brings, because that's the nature of free agency. Trading a productive player with term and a very good contract only to hope to replacer him with a UFA is extremely inefficient.

 

[salbutera]

Where exactly are they supposed to find a UFA that would bring more goals/cap than Toffoli at $4M? The costs of bringing in a big name will obviously be super inflated for what he brings, because that's the nature of free agency. Trading a productive player with term and a very good contract only to hope to replacer him with a UFA is extremely inefficient.

Pls read my previous posts, I expect a full push on Letang + one of Bergeron / Malkin with the potential available cap space

 

[CaptainKirk]

Where exactly are they supposed to find a UFA that would bring more goals/cap than Toffoli at $4M? The costs of bringing in a big name will obviously be super inflated for what he brings, because that's the nature of free agency. Trading a productive player with term and a very good contract only to hope to replacer him with a UFA is extremely inefficient.

They aren't aiming for the playoffs next year. They are acquiring young assets that will help for the future. Toffoli is at peak value and will not help in the speedy youth movement over the next few years. The multiple draft picks and prospects we get from these players is what they want to collect. We can sign an older free agent for a couple of years as a stop gap while the assets for Toffoli and Chiarot develop.

 

[Not The One]

Pls read my previous posts, I expect a full push on Letang + one of Bergeron / Malkin with the potential available cap space

Are you seriously suggesting that the Habs are in a position to pay huge $$$ for 35/36 year old UFAs?

I would give anything for the Habs to have gotten any of them ten years ago. Now? Ridiculous.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Why not trade guys like Petry or Hoffman or Armia 0r Drouin or Byron or Price or Allen or Chiarot or Gallagher or Dvorak then ? Plenty of other players to give you tat cap space.

Because you can't just trade those guys at the drop of a hat. They didn't choose those players over Toffoli, they're just more complicated to move other than Chiarot where teams are clearly waiting to make the deal on him.

You can't just decide you want to cut cap space and find a deal for Gallagher with 5 more years at 6.5M and a no move clause in a couple days.

The frustration over this deal is really strange to me. He's 30 years old and not a player they want to extend, they got a fair price for him and moved on instead of risking decline. I don't see why people are so caught up on the order of operations here, it's not like this deal signals that the front office thinks Hoffman Byron Drouin are key players and Toffoli is expendable, they just can't trade those guys the second they want to.

 

[CaptainKirk]

Are you seriously suggesting that the Habs are in a position to pay huge $$$ for 35/36 year old UFAs?

I would give anything for the Habs to have gotten any of them ten years ago. Now? Ridiculous.

They are only signing stop gaps. They aren't looking for a more expensive Toffoli. Assets and stop gaps. That's what to expect the next couple years.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

History
Weber contract was already on of the worst contract in the league when we acquired him...
Price wasn't a great deal, probably should have moved him but again maybe we weren't getting value...
Plekanec 6M$x2years was pretty bad at the time...
The whole PK bridge deal / 9M$x8 saga was a mess in more than 1 way
Drouin and Shaw deal were pretty big considering they hadn't done anything for us...

now for deal sign with Covid
Suzuki 7.875M$x8years (reacting to the KK situation, not sure he get more than 6.5M$ other wise...)
Savard 3.5M$ x3 years
Hoffman 4.5M$x3years
Armia 3.4x4years ( I probably would have the same)
Gallagher 6.5M$x6years
Allen is contract is fine but acquiring is last contract at full value was questionable...
Toffoli 4.25M$x4 (great contract but pretty sure no other team was offering 4 years)
Anderson 5.5M$x7years
Petry 6.5M$x4years
Edmondson 3.5M$x3years (good contract but not sure why he trade for is right since you weren't getting a 8 years and it had no impact on him signing)

That is 237.6$+ commit once we already knew about the Covid freeze also the cap was going up with revenue but the biggest piece was the TV deal which was already sign the cap was only going artificially in those final years before covid with player paying escro... MB did a horrible job managing cap regarless of how you looked at it he wasted a lot of unused space or wasted with it no regard to where it would lead.

Also agree that we the Atlantic division was ridiculously weak when MB came in since you probably only had TB and BOS weren't tanking/full rebuild and even they had some issues, instead of building he just tried to dunk on weak competion...

Weber contract was never a bad contract but it's been explained so many times and people still write this, so I guess it's never going to change the misrepresentation of that contract. Hard to take anything anyone writes about contracts seriously when they don't understand this basic reality.

 

[26Mats]

Why not trade guys like Petry or Hoffman or Armia 0r Drouin or Byron or Price or Allen or Chiarot or Gallagher or Dvorak then ? Plenty of other players to give you tat cap space.

It's looking good for Petry to get his trade value back up. So hopefully we'll wait to trade him unless we get a great offer. I'd hold out for a l ok battery pick or a Nick Suzuki/Branbstrom/Cody Glass level prospect. (Remember when Suzuki was the lowest ranked if those 3 Vegas prospects!).

Same with Price.

Allen's trade value may now be as high as it's ever going to be. But I would still only see him as an elite back up, not an elite starter.