Player Discussion Tocchet What Is/How He Doing?

[credulous]

There are a lot of what I believe to be silly comments about expected goals models and Tocchet’s ability to drive results in that regard, but rather than get into all of them I will just point out that almost all of that outperformance at even strength is when Hughes is on the ice: +33 GF compared to xGF with Hughes vs. +4 when Hughes on the bench since the beginning of the 2023/24 season. Hughes is about 40% of the even strength ice time over that stretch.

Hughes did the same thing under Boudreau (+22 compared to his xGF) so it’s not just a Tocchet system thing.

I’m not going to profess to know whether he’s striking the right balance, or whether things would be different if he had another defenceman who can actually move the puck, but the way they play is going to limit their upside. They had to run one of the highest shooting percentages on record just to break into the top ten scoring teams last year. Until they up their xGF slightly above middle of the pack offensively is going to be their limit.

i don't think xg is a very good stat after having looked at how it's calculated but this is right on imo. a superstar in hughes and a bunch of career years shooting wise masked an anemic system that just can't generate consistent offense in the nhl. you can't score consistently in the nhl without puck movement and speed entering the zone and the canucks can't do the first when hughes isn't on the ice and can't do the second at all

 

[Ernie]

There are a lot of what I believe to be silly comments about expected goals models and Tocchet’s ability to drive results in that regard, but rather than get into all of them I will just point out that almost all of that outperformance at even strength is when Hughes is on the ice: +33 GF compared to xGF with Hughes vs. +4 when Hughes on the bench since the beginning of the 2023/24 season. Hughes is about 40% of the even strength ice time over that stretch.

Hughes did the same thing under Boudreau (+22 compared to his xGF) so it’s not just a Tocchet system thing.

I’m not going to profess to know whether he’s striking the right balance, or whether things would be different if he had another defenceman who can actually move the puck, but the way they play is going to limit their upside. They had to run one of the highest shooting percentages on record just to break into the top ten scoring teams last year. Until they up their xGF slightly above middle of the pack offensively is going to be their limit.

Three thoughts:

1. There was an acknowledgement that the system needed to be tweaked and training camp focussed on that. But the season started with inconsistent defensive efforts and the changes went to the wayside. Whether that's related to the lack of backend skill or a poor system is up for debate.

2. The overall experience level of this coaching staff is exceptionally weak. While we've seen that play out in poor player relationship management, I expect the lack of depth there also affects their ability to create flexibility in their game plans. When in doubt they just double down on defensive systems.

3. This should not be a defensive team. Obviously a basic structure is important, but they have players that are capable of generating high level offence.

 

[VanJack]

Is there such a thing as a "Jack Adams curse"? Seems uncanny how many guys win the award as the top NHL coach; and then see their team slump the next season.

I guess the 'positive' if you're Tocchet......is that Jack Adams winners rarely remain unemployed for long if things don't work out in Vancouver.

 

[credulous]

Is there such a thing as a "Jack Adams curse"? Seems uncanny how many guys win the award as the top NHL coach; and then see their team slump the next season.

I guess the 'positive' if you're Tocchet......is that Jack Adams winners rarely remain unemployed for long if things don't work out in Vancouver.

usually the coach that wins the adams is the one that exceeds expectations the most. it's totally normal for them to disappoint the following season because one they probably got kind of lucky and two the expectations are now higher

 

[Canuckle1970]

No way you can think of firing Tocchet at this point. Absurd.

Along with the downgrade on D, there were too many injury glitches and other distractions to start the year. Toc has plenty of rope while we wait for Allvin to pull off a serious trade to improve our D.

 

[kanucks25]

3. This should not be a defensive team. Obviously a basic structure is important, but they have players that are capable of generating high level offence.

What is your reasoning for this?

- Our top 2 centers are 100 point players but are visibly not playing well regardless of the system. There's no system that is so defensive that it turns 100 point players into 70 point players.
- We have 1 career 60 point winger and 2 career 50 point wingers.
- The rest of the forward group is composed of career bottom-6ers and AHLers.
- We have 1 dynamic offensive D-man, one "two-way" D-man who has seems to have lost his offensive touch for like a calendar year now (and currently injured), and the rest of the backend are anywhere between defense-first and AHLers.

So with what firepower do you suppose we should be generating high level offence?

 

[Curm]

Coaching isn't the problem, it's elevating Soucy and Myers while counting on Forbort and Desharnais to replace Zadorov and Cole that's the problem. Injuries along with their two top paid forwards not earning their contracts only exacerbates it.

The coach didn't make the personnel decisions last summer, and the challenges around the top two salaried forwards existed before the coach arrived.

 

[VanJack]

It's a sad fact that a coach only has so much sway on what happens on the ice.

The unfortunate reality is that even with Hronek in the lineup, this was a 'marginal blueline'. Without him, I don't even think it's even 'playoff-caliber'.

 

[thecupismine]

Vigneault needs to generate more offense with Isbister, Jaffray, and Shannon out there. Clearly its the system holding Naslund back from being a PPG player again. Linden is more of a captain than Naslund and it's causing problems in the room. Need to fire this guy and hire Arniel before he gets poached.

Replace those 13th forwards with half the dmen we have in the lineup and it feels like the exact same arguments being made 17 years later.

(I will concede on the Miller/Petey thing getting out of control is on the entire organization, and Tocchet deserves part of the blame for this as its part of his job to nip this in the bud a lot earlier like he did last year.)

 

[mathonwy]

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[F A N]

Vigneault needs to generate more offense with Isbister, Jaffray, and Shannon out there. Clearly its the system holding Naslund back from being a PPG player again. Linden is more of a captain than Naslund and it's causing problems in the room. Need to fire this guy and hire Arniel before he gets poached.

Replace those 13th forwards with half the dmen we have in the lineup and it feels like the exact same arguments being made 17 years later.

(I will concede on the Miller/Petey thing getting out of control is on the entire organization, and Tocchet deserves part of the blame for this as its part of his job to nip this in the bud a lot earlier like he did last year.)

This isn’t a response to the fine points you made here, but I don’t think the AV example is a good one. Gillis coming in and forcing AV to change his system to a more offensive one was considered crucial to the Canucks’ later success and very likely prolonged AV’s career.

 

[thecupismine]

This isn’t a response to the fine points you made here, but I don’t think the AV example is a good one. Gillis coming in and forcing AV to change his system to a more offensive one was considered crucial to the Canucks’ later success and very likely prolonged AV’s career.

While true, he also provided him with more guys who could play that system pretty immediately (Sundin, Demitra, Wellwood, Bernier, Raymond stepped up, etc.). Ehroff the year after, Hamhuis after that, etc. as well.

Both things went hand in hand with each other - he got more troops, opened thet system, and Kesler/Burrows/Raymond all learned from the vets that were brought in, and things trended in the right direction.

Meanwhile Nonis the year before got Vigneault Aaron Miller & a bunch of 13th forwards when the team was struggling to score, which isn't all that different from signing the tree trunks we got this year.

 

[VanJack]

Tocchet calls out Miller in the post-game presser for two lackadaisical back-checks that resulted in two goals for the Sens.

People are obsessed with Petey and Miller......but the latter's respect from the coaching staff seems to be in trouble as well.

 

[David71]

This isn’t a response to the fine points you made here, but I don’t think the AV example is a good one. Gillis coming in and forcing AV to change his system to a more offensive one was considered crucial to the Canucks’ later success and very likely prolonged AV’s career.

maybe alvin and rutherford should do the same if they find a top 4 guy soon rather than later. playing hughes and running him to the ground is asking for trouble and it has shown

 

[F A N]

While true, he also provided him with more guys who could play that system pretty immediately (Sundin, Demitra, Wellwood, Bernier, Raymond stepped up, etc.). Ehroff the year after, Hamhuis after that, etc. as well.

Did Wellwood and Bernier play AV's new system immediately? I don't think so. A lot of credit to Demitra (RIP) for helping Raymond, but how much of Raymond's development was due to the system vs Raymond taking a natural step forward? Again, the point is that Gillis forced AV to employ a more offensive system rather than Gillis acquiring players that fit into what AV wanted to do. Of course there were some moves that accommodated AV.

Both things went hand in hand with each other - he got more troops, opened thet system, and Kesler/Burrows/Raymond all learned from the vets that were brought in, and things trended in the right direction.

Meanwhile Nonis the year before got Vigneault Aaron Miller & a bunch of 13th forwards when the team was struggling to score, which isn't all that different from signing the tree trunks we got this year.

But did Nonis acquire players that fit into what AV wanted to do?

You gave a lot of forward examples. Which players did Allvin and Rutherford acquire aside from Kuzmenko that you do not think fits into Tocchet's system? DeBrusk, Sherwood, Heinen, Suter, Blueger, Mik, and even Lafferty. Were these guys poor fits in Tocchet's system? One star pupil of Tocchet is clearly Garland.

As of the D, do we know that our big trees weren't players Tocchet likes? Tocchet has openly talked about liking big defensemen who can skate. Of course everybody wants big, skilled defensemen who can skate and defend. I certainly have not come away with the impression that Tocchet doesn't care about size. In Arizaona, from what I have read, Tocchet either employed a defensive first system or a "system" that relied on great goaltending. Certainly, the Canucks last season focused on defence to the point that Tocchet wanted to open things up a bit this year. If you look at the Dmen that excelled under Tocchet in Arizona, he certainly played a lot of defensive minded guys.

What about a player like Clayton Keller? He got worse under Tocchet and then blossomed right after he left? Same with Nick Schmaltz. Coincidence? Of course there's always the argument that a coach works with the players he is given and a coach is never going to maximize the potential of every player.

I just don't buy into the argument that Tocchet isn't on board with management acquiring Dmen with size which has been a pattern.

 

[Regal]

This isn’t a response to the fine points you made here, but I don’t think the AV example is a good one. Gillis coming in and forcing AV to change his system to a more offensive one was considered crucial to the Canucks’ later success and very likely prolonged AV’s career.

And I remember distinctly with the Canucks 07-08 season on the line against Edmonton in game 81, down 1 late, AV had Ritchie on the ice and not the Sedins to finish the game. He was as much responsible for the lack of offense as the roster.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Friedman: Tocchet split Pettersson and Miller on the PP to at once bring about the internal issue to the public and to show them how foolish their rift had been.

 

[Hodgy]

To me, there is a tale of two Tochetts.

One, is last year from October to January.

Two, is the rest of his time with Vancouver.

During the first period the Canucks were playing exceptionally, and while we had a perhaps unsustainable PDO, you could at least see how the team was an elite team that probably would have a better than average PDO. This was the team we all got excited for.

The other period of time the Canucks are a boring low event team that looks decidedly average, although one that will probably be, relatively speaking, better in the playoffs than they are in the regular season.

Would love to see the splits on these two period. Because I have my doubts that we will ever be going back to the October to January period....

 

[pitseleh]

To me, there is a tale of two Tochetts.

One, is last year from October to January.

Two, is the rest of his time with Vancouver.

During the first period the Canucks were playing exceptionally, and while we had a perhaps unsustainable PDO, you could at least see how the team was an elite team that probably would have a better than average PDO. This was the team we all got excited for.

The other period of time the Canucks are a boring low event team that looks decidedly average, although one that will probably be, relatively speaking, better in the playoffs than they are in the regular season.

Would love to see the splits on these two period. Because I have my doubts that we will ever be going back to the October to January period....

At 5 on 5, score adjusted:

October 1, 2023 to January 31, 2024: 51% CF%, 52% xGF%, 14th in xGF/game, 10th in xGA/game.

February 1, 2024 to today: 52 CF%, 52% xGF%, 24th in xGF/game, 4th in xGA/game.

So similar results but getting there in a different way it seems.

 

[Hodgy]

At 5 on 5, score adjusted:

October 1, 2023 to January 31, 2024: 51% CF%, 52% xGF%, 14th in xGF/game, 10th in xGA/game.

February 1, 2024 to today: 52 CF%, 52% xGF%, 24th in xGF/game, 4th in xGA/game.

So similar results but getting there in a different way it seems.

It tracks a little bit in terms of the eye test. Certainly the lower xGA/game makes sense, but I would have thought the CF% and xGF% would have been lower. But are either of these any good at capturing quality of scoring chances? Because based on the eye test, the number of quality scoring chances (especially off the rush) are way down outside of the October to January period of last season,

 

[pitseleh]

It tracks a little bit in terms of the eye test. Certainly the lower xGA/game makes sense, but I would have thought the CF% and xGF% would have been lower. But are either of these any good at capturing quality of scoring chances? Because based on the eye test, the number of quality scoring chances (especially off the rush) are way down outside of the October to January period of last season.

xGF should in theory account for the quality of chances.

For Natural Stat Trick’s high danger chances:

October to January: 11th for, 14th against

February to today: 11th for, 7th against

Consistent with the team cutting down on low percentage shots. But not sure how well they capture the off the rush element.