Player Discussion Tocchet What Is/How He Doing?

[credulous]

There are a lot of what I believe to be silly comments about expected goals models and Tocchet’s ability to drive results in that regard, but rather than get into all of them I will just point out that almost all of that outperformance at even strength is when Hughes is on the ice: +33 GF compared to xGF with Hughes vs. +4 when Hughes on the bench since the beginning of the 2023/24 season. Hughes is about 40% of the even strength ice time over that stretch.

Hughes did the same thing under Boudreau (+22 compared to his xGF) so it’s not just a Tocchet system thing.

I’m not going to profess to know whether he’s striking the right balance, or whether things would be different if he had another defenceman who can actually move the puck, but the way they play is going to limit their upside. They had to run one of the highest shooting percentages on record just to break into the top ten scoring teams last year. Until they up their xGF slightly above middle of the pack offensively is going to be their limit.

i don't think xg is a very good stat after having looked at how it's calculated but this is right on imo. a superstar in hughes and a bunch of career years shooting wise masked an anemic system that just can't generate consistent offense in the nhl. you can't score consistently in the nhl without puck movement and speed entering the zone and the canucks can't do the first when hughes isn't on the ice and can't do the second at all

 

[Ernie]

There are a lot of what I believe to be silly comments about expected goals models and Tocchet’s ability to drive results in that regard, but rather than get into all of them I will just point out that almost all of that outperformance at even strength is when Hughes is on the ice: +33 GF compared to xGF with Hughes vs. +4 when Hughes on the bench since the beginning of the 2023/24 season. Hughes is about 40% of the even strength ice time over that stretch.

Hughes did the same thing under Boudreau (+22 compared to his xGF) so it’s not just a Tocchet system thing.

I’m not going to profess to know whether he’s striking the right balance, or whether things would be different if he had another defenceman who can actually move the puck, but the way they play is going to limit their upside. They had to run one of the highest shooting percentages on record just to break into the top ten scoring teams last year. Until they up their xGF slightly above middle of the pack offensively is going to be their limit.

Three thoughts:

1. There was an acknowledgement that the system needed to be tweaked and training camp focussed on that. But the season started with inconsistent defensive efforts and the changes went to the wayside. Whether that's related to the lack of backend skill or a poor system is up for debate.

2. The overall experience level of this coaching staff is exceptionally weak. While we've seen that play out in poor player relationship management, I expect the lack of depth there also affects their ability to create flexibility in their game plans. When in doubt they just double down on defensive systems.

3. This should not be a defensive team. Obviously a basic structure is important, but they have players that are capable of generating high level offence.

 

[VanJack]

Is there such a thing as a "Jack Adams curse"? Seems uncanny how many guys win the award as the top NHL coach; and then see their team slump the next season.

I guess the 'positive' if you're Tocchet......is that Jack Adams winners rarely remain unemployed for long if things don't work out in Vancouver.

 

[credulous]

Is there such a thing as a "Jack Adams curse"? Seems uncanny how many guys win the award as the top NHL coach; and then see their team slump the next season.

I guess the 'positive' if you're Tocchet......is that Jack Adams winners rarely remain unemployed for long if things don't work out in Vancouver.

usually the coach that wins the adams is the one that exceeds expectations the most. it's totally normal for them to disappoint the following season because one they probably got kind of lucky and two the expectations are now higher

 

[Canuckle1970]

No way you can think of firing Tocchet at this point. Absurd.

Along with the downgrade on D, there were too many injury glitches and other distractions to start the year. Toc has plenty of rope while we wait for Allvin to pull off a serious trade to improve our D.