Player Discussion Tocchet What Is/How He Doing?

[F A N]

Lol, I mean specifically without firing the head coach.

I can't think of any. It would seem more disruptive than anything. So unless there's some off ice or serious personality reasons teams just keep the assistant until the end of the year? And even then, there's always the "indefinite leave for family reasons" explanation.

Tocchet hates Russians. We went from 4 on the team to zero.

How do you explain Gonchar being on his staff though?

 

[crowfish]

Rick Tocchet hockey is genuinely the most boring hockey I have ever watched. I started noticing how bad it was during the 2nd half of last year.

One game that stuck out was a 3-2 win we had vs the Ducks last year in March. They had played the Oilers the night before and got destroyed 6-1. The Oilers dominated the puck possession and probably could have won 10-0. Then they play us on a road back 2 back and the game is incredibly competitive, 2-2 late in the 3rd until Dakota Joshua scores to give us the win. That was the exact moment I knew we were frauds.

The rest of that season (including the playoffs) and the start of this season looks the same. The team has no offense, no puck possession. It 100% relies on Quinn Hughes playing like an MVP to win them games.

It's not just my subjective eye test either:

How does a team with an MVP calibre Quinn Hughes rank 31st in the league in expected goals for? Lottery teams that will be in the running to draft Gavin McKenna in a couple years are producing more scoring chances than Rick Tocchet with Hughes, Miller, Pettersson, Boeser, DeBrusk at his disposal. It's garbage.

We have actually been one of the luckiest teams so far in terms of finishing our pathetic lack of scoring chances. So don't let the record fool you into thinking we are a good team. We are lucky so far, and the schedule has been pretty easy.

 

[BluesyShoes]

brannstrom was just a way for the avs to offset contract slots and salary in the poolman deal. he was instantly waived on acquisition. let's not pretend management targeted him as a useful player

For sure, Brannstrom likely wasn't targeted, but that's kind of beside the point. He still got the call-up and is a breath of fresh air for the D core. When you look at how useful a replacement level puck moving D has been in our system, you have to start asking questions. What if they moved in a different direction with their D? Canucks maybe have the biggest bottom 4 D core in the league (in the offseason, they put together an NBA starting lineup) and does that fit their identity up front?

 

[thecupismine]

Rick Tocchet hockey is genuinely the most boring hockey I have ever watched. I started noticing how bad it was during the 2nd half of last year.

One game that stuck out was a 3-2 win we had vs the Ducks last year in March. They had played the Oilers the night before and got destroyed 6-1. The Oilers dominated the puck possession and probably could have won 10-0. Then they play us on a road back 2 back and the game is incredibly competitive, 2-2 late in the 3rd until Dakota Joshua scores to give us the win. That was the exact moment I knew we were frauds.

The rest of that season (including the playoffs) and the start of this season looks the same. The team has no offense, no puck possession. It 100% relies on Quinn Hughes playing like an MVP to win them games.

It's not just my subjective eye test either:

View attachment 946288

How does a team with an MVP calibre Quinn Hughes rank 31st in the league in expected goals for? Lottery teams that will be in the running to draft Gavin McKenna in a couple years are producing more scoring chances than Rick Tocchet with Hughes, Miller, Pettersson, Boeser, DeBrusk at his disposal. It's garbage.

We have actually been one of the luckiest teams so far in terms of finishing our pathetic lack of scoring chances. So don't let the record fool you into thinking we are a good team. We are lucky so far, and the schedule has been pretty easy.

View attachment 946290

I swear some people would rather win the corsi battle than the actual game on ice.

This is the second year in a row where Tocchet's team has been amongst the best at goals scored above expected, and instead of wondering how/why that's the case, people want the team to adhere their playing style to whatever the public models say is "good."

They've also been a top 10 scoring team since he's become coach. I don't know how anyone watching can look at this defense and go "yeah, let's open this system up."

5 of the 6 defensemen out there struggle to make a 5 foot pass right now - that's on management, not Tocchet. Last year they had similar issues with Zadorov and Cole, and Juulsen/Friedman are a massive step down from them.

You coach the team you have, not the one you wish you did. They opened up the system the first 5 games and got rocked with odd-man rushes against because the breakout passes were horrendous. Until the defense is fixed, Tocchet would be an idiot to coach any other way.

 

[crowfish]

I swear some people would rather win the corsi battle than the actual game on ice.

This is the second year in a row where Tocchet's team has been amongst the best at goals scored above expected, and instead of wondering how/why that's the case, people want the team to adhere their playing style to whatever the public models say is "good."

They've also been a top 10 scoring team since he's become coach. I don't know how anyone watching can look at this defense and go "yeah, let's open this system up."

5 of the 6 defensemen out there struggle to make a 5 foot pass right now - that's on management, not Tocchet. Last year they had similar issues with Zadorov and Cole, and Juulsen/Friedman are a massive step down from them.

You coach the team you have, not the one you wish you did. They opened up the system the first 5 games and got rocked with odd-man rushes against because the breakout passes were horrendous. Until the defense is fixed, Tocchet would be an idiot to coach any other way.

That's called luck. Luck doesn't last forever, luck isn't a good strategy. There is no excuse to be 2nd last in the league in expected goals 5v5 (it's not like our powerplay is good either), that is not bad luck. Yes this style can win games, but I doubt it can win a Cup, and it is miserable to watch as a fan. Unless you enjoy 3-2 games where we don't even look better than lottery teams.

 

[Nucky]

Corsi and even public xgf% data is outdated. Kevin Woodley was on radio saying that during the first period vs Boston, natural stat trick’s site had the bruins with 5+ more “high danger scoring chances” than the private model he uses had.

Not every team above 100 PDO is “lucky” and vice versa for the teams below 100

And If you want to measure puck possession, nhl.com’s edge data literally tracks and ranks every team’s puck possession in the offensive zone

There’s really no reason to use corsi or xgf as a way to measure puck possession when an actual puck possession stat exists.

That being said I dislike how much this team still relies on the point shot with traffic for offense and I still think the powerplay is too slow paced in terms of player and puck movement.

 

[mossey3535]

They're 30 games in and past US Thanksgiving and still in a playoff spot.

Still think Tocchet has a good base system. Our team isn't fast, and making the team trap a bit more has already made them a lot more consistent than in the past. However, even with such a safe system the lack of talent on the blueline is a huge roadblock to the team's development.

He seems open to a bit more offence, which is good, but like most NHL coaches he doesn't really have a good concept of how to actually get more offence. But he's not alone in that. NHL offence is still deeply individualistic which is a huge contrast to defence which has so many forechecking, neutral zone trap, and coverage options.

Although everyone has become a lot better teammates and hockey players, there's still the stink of past lack of engagement and accountability. Tocchet has been a bit better than some past coaches but those bad habits they built over 8 years might be too much to overcome. Again, on the defence side not enough things have been tried. Guys who play terribly are given chance after chance and not bench or given a few games in the pressbox. I can't emphasize enough how demoralizing this can be when guys are not performing and are still rewarded. In the past, this was much more on the forward side with guys like Granlund being inexplicably played despite their clear lack of effort.

You can see my assessment of tocchet just a couple pages back in the thread. He has a lot of warts but he's still a young coach and has room to grow. If we got a good PP coach who has coached in the NHL before I think that eliminates a lot of our problems.

The biggest issue right now are the players. You saw tocchet's comments, they have coached game plans and tactics that guys are not following. Again I think a lot of this is the gutless malaise that was over this team for so long. These guys haven't earned the right to change up the head coach because they keep pulling the same shit as in the past. Unlike Green, Desjardins, or to a lesser extent Boudreau I can see Tocchet coaching here for the long term. I'm not saying that they can or will blow it up, but if these guys can't get on board with the coaching staff in time to maximize the current window, then that's on them.

 

[crowfish]

Imagine being okay with this lol. Do you guys even watch the games? We are producing expected goals slightly better than teams that picked top 3 in last years entry draft...

 

[mossey3535]

That's called luck. Luck doesn't last forever, luck isn't a good strategy. There is no excuse to be 2nd last in the league in expected goals 5v5 (it's not like our powerplay is good either), that is not bad luck. Yes this style can win games, but I doubt it can win a Cup, and it is miserable to watch as a fan. Unless you enjoy 3-2 games where we don't even look better than lottery teams.

It's not luck if it's a trend that keeps happening.

This is a defensive system that generates offence via counterpunching off turnovers, which gives highly skill players chances that occur against the run of play. That's going to give you a lot of goals above expected.

You can see what happens when they stop playing the trap and stop generating those counterattacks, their offence dries up because there's no structure besides perimeter point shots. That's why their expected goals is low, that style of play doesn't generate a huge number of chances. But it's mostly counterbalanced by the turnover game.

It's ok to point to the low expected goals and say there can be improvement there, I absolutely think they need to factor that in. In the playoffs the turnovers often don't produce chances the way they do in the regular season, it's just a reset for both teams and stalls the game both ways.

But, I think you ignore the offensive style of the team and point too blindly to the stats. Their shooting percentage is down this year compared to last and they're still scoring above expected. That suggests that in the regular season at least that they're going to continue to do this. And IMO it makes sense based on team makeup and style.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

It’s pretty common for Jack Adam winner to lose his job right after

 

[F A N]

Rick Tocchet hockey is genuinely the most boring hockey I have ever watched. I started noticing how bad it was during the 2nd half of last year.

Personally, if the team wins a Cup by playing the most boring trap system I'll take it. I don't care if someone like Brian Burke says it's not Canucks hockey.

Anyhow, you seem to be lumping last year and this year together. I don't know why you're doing that. We clearly haven't been as good this year. With injuries, Petey's struggles, our D, the team not firing on all cylinders - we aren't that good of a team. Right now we're a middle of the pack team and that's where we are in the standings.

If you read the posts in Nov/Dec from last year and the posts here you should see a stark contrast in how posters here view the team.

That's called luck. Luck doesn't last forever, luck isn't a good strategy. There is no excuse to be 2nd last in the league in expected goals 5v5 (it's not like our powerplay is good either), that is not bad luck. Yes this style can win games, but I doubt it can win a Cup, and it is miserable to watch as a fan. Unless you enjoy 3-2 games where we don't even look better than lottery teams.

Again, I don't think you're wrong here. The Canucks haven't played well on a consistent basis this season. Most here were critical of the the defense before Hronek got injured. It's worse now. At least Demko is back but he isn't back to his old self and Lankinen has been carrying us anyways.

 

[thecupismine]

That's called luck. Luck doesn't last forever, luck isn't a good strategy. There is no excuse to be 2nd last in the league in expected goals 5v5 (it's not like our powerplay is good either), that is not bad luck. Yes this style can win games, but I doubt it can win a Cup, and it is miserable to watch as a fan. Unless you enjoy 3-2 games where we don't even look better than lottery teams.

40 games? Probably luck.

82 games? Maybe you’re onto something.

145+ games across 3 different seasons? Probably not luck, and something the model is missing.

The point about it being luck assumes the model is correct and that any deviation must be luck, and that there’s no edge to be gained that the model can’t account for.

This stuff you’re spouting off was used in 2008 privately by teams, but their stuff has advanced way far beyond these public models people are hellbent on. Corsi was created as a proxy for puck possession, but we literally have puck possession figures now. High danger chances for is still a crude public measure that deviates between models.

It’s the same crap we heard last year about the first half of the season being a mirage, yet their record in both halves was near identical. Private models in the first half last year had the Canucks being good and sustainable, public said frauds.

I’m not out here saying the Canucks are generating enough offense either, but to put that on the system right now when you have only 1 guy who can move the puck is baby raging at the wrong problem.

 

[Grifter3511]

I did not say he should be fired right now. He has earned the right to turn things around.

My point is that this season, on its own, does not reflect well on him an NHL coach. You cannot argue that he has gotten the best out of this teteam.

Really? When you take off the homer glasses and look at our defense and the players who've missed significant time, you honestly think this team should be higher up the standings than they are? I sure don't.

 

[rypper]

Tocchet hasn't had a healthy team all year.

Every team gets injured yes, but the Canucks have had a special funk around them. Major pieces injured and out of the lineup. Major pieces injured and trying to stay in the lineup. It's premature to call for his job.

 

[Breakers]

Pretty clear who he’s talking about

 

[ManVanFan]

Pretty clear who he’s talking about

He's not really talking at all.

 

[ManVanFan]

I like how Rutherford and Tocchet are fed up with the stupid Van media.

It's been decades that Van media has pretended as if they are better GM's, they act as if they know more than the actual GM's do. The whining.

If anyone thinks it's totally normal, might want to branch out a bit and take a bit of time to see what media is like in other organizations.

Listening to the game from the Colorado broadcast last night. Mackinnon is best player in the world. Makar was all by his self as best D for the past half decade until Hughes emerged last year as a player. Mackenzie Blackwood is definitely better than Demko.

Granted most of the media in for other teams don't have the hockey IQ of the Van media but it's probably for the best.

 

[rypper]

I like how Rutherford and Tocchet are fed up with the stupid Van media.

It's been decades that Van media has pretended as if they are better GM's, they act as if they know more than the actual GM's do. The whining.

If anyone thinks it's totally normal, might want to branch out a bit and take a bit of time to see what media is like in other organizations.

Listening to the game from the Colorado broadcast last night. Mackinnon is best player in the world. Makar was all by his self as best D for the past half decade until Hughes emerged last year as a player. Mackenzie Blackwood is definitely better than Demko.

Granted most of the media in for other teams don't have the hockey IQ of the Van media but it's probably for the best.

Is that better? I've always liked how Shorty calls a fairly unbiased game.

 

[ManVanFan]

Is that better? I've always liked how Shorty calls a fairly unbiased game.

Shorty is great for sure. So many of the American commentators just sound like homers but it always seems to be a lot more praise vs a lot of negative in the Van media. It's what they have thrived on for years.

Obviously Rutherford has seen all the negative around the team for a couple years now and he is doing a lot to try and control that. Possibly for a reason.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Corsi and even public xgf% data is outdated. Kevin Woodley was on radio saying that during the first period vs Boston, natural stat trick’s site had the bruins with 5+ more “high danger scoring chances” than the private model he uses had.

Not every team above 100 PDO is “lucky” and vice versa for the teams below 100

And If you want to measure puck possession, nhl.com’s edge data literally tracks and ranks every team’s puck possession in the offensive zone

There’s really no reason to use corsi or xgf as a way to measure puck possession when an actual puck possession stat exists.

That being said I dislike how much this team still relies on the point shot with traffic for offense and I still think the powerplay is too slow paced in terms of player and puck movement.

Could you elaborate as to why Edge or Private data immediately invalidates public xGF and CF data? Are they not each just tracking events?

I think everyone knows at this point that the Canucks are a low event team.

A public xGF/Against graph:

 

[Diogenes92]

Rick Tocchet hockey is genuinely the most boring hockey I have ever watched. I started noticing how bad it was during the 2nd half of last year.

One game that stuck out was a 3-2 win we had vs the Ducks last year in March. They had played the Oilers the night before and got destroyed 6-1. The Oilers dominated the puck possession and probably could have won 10-0. Then they play us on a road back 2 back and the game is incredibly competitive, 2-2 late in the 3rd until Dakota Joshua scores to give us the win. That was the exact moment I knew we were frauds.

The rest of that season (including the playoffs) and the start of this season looks the same. The team has no offense, no puck possession. It 100% relies on Quinn Hughes playing like an MVP to win them games.

It's not just my subjective eye test either:

View attachment 946288

How does a team with an MVP calibre Quinn Hughes rank 31st in the league in expected goals for? Lottery teams that will be in the running to draft Gavin McKenna in a couple years are producing more scoring chances than Rick Tocchet with Hughes, Miller, Pettersson, Boeser, DeBrusk at his disposal. It's garbage.

We have actually been one of the luckiest teams so far in terms of finishing our pathetic lack of scoring chances. So don't let the record fool you into thinking we are a good team. We are lucky so far, and the schedule has been pretty easy.

View attachment 946290

Yeah...the underlying stats do paint a picture. But there is still a huge portion of the fanbase that refuses to admit it.

I've been saying to my friends and family that this iteration of the Canucks (last season and a half) has been the "luckiest" version of the team I have ever watched. In so many facets. PDO, career seasons, Silovs (playoffs) and Lankinen (this season) stepping up out of nowhere and playing elite, the bounces, tying the game with an empty net (has to be the most in the league under Tochett)...

If the 2011 Canucks had enjoyed the bounces and luck that this team has enjoyed, they'd have won multiple cups.

I almost feel guilty watching some of games and the way that this team wins. Glad I'm not the only one who sees it like this.

 

[Nucky]

Could you elaborate as to why Edge or Private data immediately invalidates public xGF and CF data? Are they not each just tracking events?

I think everyone knows at this point that the Canucks are a low event team.

A public xGF/Against graph:

View attachment 948575

1. Corsi is often quoted as a possession metric, it’s a shot metric and back a few years ago before Edge we had no choice but to use corsi and assume shots = more possession. Now with edge you have literal puck possession time as a stat for teams. One thing I’ll give you is that it’s not adjustable for us with score effects and such like corsi is on public sites

2. Public xgf is essentially corsi but adjusted for shot location. Not bad and certainly a step up from corsi. Private models? They account for pre-shot puck movement. They account for the goalie being screened or not. They account for how much time it took for a shot to be released. Night and day from public xgf. All confirmed by Kevin Woodley too.


And my personal hockey nerd speculation/wishful thinking is if it’s getting to the stage in some private models where they calculate who the shooter is as well. Example: A Leon Draisaitl one timer from a bad angle vs a Derek Forbort shot from the inner slot on an unscreened goalie.

 

[kanucks25]

1. Corsi is often quoted as a possession metric, it’s a shot metric and back a few years ago before Edge we had no choice but to use corsi and assume shots = more possession. Now with edge you have literal puck possession time as a stat for teams. One thing I’ll give you is that it’s not adjustable for us with score effects and such like corsi is on public sites

2. Public xgf is essentially corsi but adjusted for shot location. Not bad and certainly a step up from corsi. Private models? They account for pre-shot puck movement. They account for the goalie being screened or not. They account for how much time it took for a shot to be released. Night and day from public xgf. All confirmed by Kevin Woodley too.


And my personal hockey nerd speculation/wishful thinking is if it’s getting to the stage in some private models where they calculate who the shooter is as well. Example: A Leon Draisaitl one timer from a bad angle vs a Derek Forbort shot from the inner slot on an unscreened goalie.

Exactly. Public models only take into account where the shot came from with zero other context.

There is so much more to a scoring chance than shot location:
- Who is the shooter?
- What hand is the shooter?
- Was the shooter rushed?
- Was the puck bobbling / was it a clean pass?
- Where did the pass come from?
- How much traffic? Where was it?
and so on...

A shot from dead in the slot can be an AAA scoring chance, and another shot from the same location can be a nothing burger.

 

[Spectrefire]

Is that better? I've always liked how Shorty calls a fairly unbiased game.

Dude probably thinks Jack Edwards is the greatest sportscaster in the history of any sport.

He's not a serious person.

 

[pitseleh]

There are a lot of what I believe to be silly comments about expected goals models and Tocchet’s ability to drive results in that regard, but rather than get into all of them I will just point out that almost all of that outperformance at even strength is when Hughes is on the ice: +33 GF compared to xGF with Hughes vs. +4 when Hughes on the bench since the beginning of the 2023/24 season. Hughes is about 40% of the even strength ice time over that stretch.

Hughes did the same thing under Boudreau (+22 compared to his xGF) so it’s not just a Tocchet system thing.

I’m not going to profess to know whether he’s striking the right balance, or whether things would be different if he had another defenceman who can actually move the puck, but the way they play is going to limit their upside. They had to run one of the highest shooting percentages on record just to break into the top ten scoring teams last year. Until they up their xGF slightly above middle of the pack offensively is going to be their limit.