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Tribute Timothy Liljegren part 2

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darrylsittler27 said:
We all knew Lily would play Nhl we just questioned his top 4 ability. That is a couple years away and Sandin stepped right past him. People expected more flash offense.
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um, next year I think... 2022, like January!!!
I think he will stick with Muzzin, Lily is better than Holl, and will help mask Muzzins decline.
 
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darrylsittler27 said:
We all knew Lily would play Nhl we just questioned his top 4 ability. That is a couple years away and Sandin stepped right past him. People expected more flash offense.
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When exactly did Sandin step right past him and people expecting flash offence seems more like people who haven't followed his game. Do you buy a Tacoma then complain that it isn't a Prius?
 
He looks like he has the skillset & is trending towards being a solid shutdown defenseman.

Didn't this guy used to be a very offensive defenseman with defensive flaws? Seems as if he's been very committed to becoming a complete defenseman over the years.
 
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123offtheglass said:
He looks like he has the skillset & is trending towards being a solid shutdown defenseman.

Didn't this guy used to be a very offensive defenseman with defensive flaws? Seems as if he's been very committed to becoming a complete defenseman over the years.
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Yep he was. Was great offensively in the AHL as well, put up points on the second PP unit and at ES. Has not received any offensive opportunities with the Leafs, even with Sandin out, which is a shame as they are stunting the development of half his game.
 
TheGoldenJet said:
Yep he was. Was great offensively in the AHL as well, put up points on the second PP unit and at ES. Has not received any offensive opportunities with the Leafs, even with Sandin out, which is a shame as they are stunting the development of half his game.
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I wouldn't go as far as saying they're stunting the development of half his game, it's only been a little over a quarter of the season & he got a lot of that on Marlies over the years. They are at least letting him focus on the rest of his game at the NHL level, PP is also very different.

Definitely would agree though that they should get him in on the PP now while Sandin is out, now is the time.
 
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123offtheglass said:
I wouldn't go as far as saying they're stunting the development of half his game, it's only been a little over a quarter of the season & he got a lot of that on Marlies over the years. They are at least letting him focus on the rest of his game at the NHL level, PP is also very different.

Definitely would agree though that they should get him in on the PP now while Sandin is out, now is the time.
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Agreed, Muzzin is not a difference maker on the 2nd PP
 
zeke said:
Not a great night for him in the top 4. He can do better than that.
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Yeah, “meh” night, but better than Holl: Speculation: - Justin Holl Disappointment Discussion

He’s our best option with Muzzin at the moment, IMO. Still has his rookie moments, and I’d like to see him be more aggressive offensively, but overall he’s been a positive contributor. Ideally he’d be on the 3rd pair this year, but with Holl a real liability at the moment, Lily should stay with Muzz. Fully healthy I want to see:

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Lily
Sandin - Dermott
 
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Maplebeasts said:
His underlying numbers weren't great. Not sure if that was on him or Muzzin though. Muzzin's were far and away the worst on the team for Dmen.
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“Underlying numbers” are basically “how did the team perform with X on the ice.” Over the course of a full season, the player’s individual contribution is somewhat represented/isolated, but in a single game they’re meaningless IMO - almost no signal, almost pure noise. Evaluating a single game is all about the eye test.

This is gonna sound douchey, but I do have a decent stats background - I have an MSc in a stats heavy discipline, published a paper in a peer reviewed journal, and have worked as a Data Scientist in the past. Noise-heavy stats over tiny sample sizes mean nothing.
 
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ponder said:
“Underlying numbers” are basically “how did the team perform with X on the ice.” Over the course of a full season, the player’s individual contribution is somewhat represented/isolated, but in a single game they’re meaningless IMO - almost no signal, almost pure noise. Evaluating a single game is all about the eye test.

This is gonna sound douchey, but I do have a decent stats background - I have an MSc in a stats heavy discipline, published a paper in a peer reviewed journal, and have worked as a Data Scientist in the past. Noise-heavy stats over tiny sample sizes mean nothing.
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Liljegren more often than not is a positive in terms of expected goals for/against, especially when he's paired with Sandin. I'm not really worried in the least about last night.
 
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123offtheglass said:
He looks like he has the skillset & is trending towards being a solid shutdown defenseman.

Didn't this guy used to be a very offensive defenseman with defensive flaws? Seems as if he's been very committed to becoming a complete defenseman over the years.
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Maybe when he was 17. Not since his rookie year of the AHL that is for sure.

He's always been more reliable defensively and a better skater than Sandin. Arguably a better puck mover with the puck on his stick too.

Sandin is mostly just more aggressive in the offensive end (and it can work since he has high IQ) and can make some better passes everywhere on the ice. Sandin is special in that regard, whereas Liljegren is just good. Liljegren is more cautious, which is funny because he has the skating to be able to compensate for greater risks whereas Sandin does not.
 
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ponder said:
“Underlying numbers” are basically “how did the team perform with X on the ice.” Over the course of a full season, the player’s individual contribution is somewhat represented/isolated, but in a single game they’re meaningless IMO - almost no signal, almost pure noise. Evaluating a single game is all about the eye test.

This is gonna sound douchey, but I do have a decent stats background - I have an MSc in a stats heavy discipline, published a paper in a peer reviewed journal, and have worked as a Data Scientist in the past. Noise-heavy stats over tiny sample sizes mean nothing.
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Agree 100%. I saw a really good analysis of this a while back that basically said that while advanced stats can be useful for judging team performance, their value is questionable at best for judging individual players, even with large sample sizes and with a small sample size, they're completely useless. Every time I see someone posting advanced stats for some player for one game and say look how good/bad this player was, I just shake my head because as far as I'm concerned, these numbers are a complete waste of time.
 
Gary Nylund said:
Agree 100%. I saw a really good analysis of this a while back that basically said that while advanced stats can be useful for judging team performance, their value is questionable at best for judging individual players, even with large sample sizes and with a small sample size, they're completely useless. Every time I see someone posting advanced stats for some player for one game and say look how good/bad this player was, I just shake my head because as far as I'm concerned, these numbers are a complete waste of time.
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Single game stats of any kind are basically useless, it's not an advanced stat thing.

Anyone remember that Ryan Poehling kid who scored a hat trick against us for the Habs in the last game of the season? Future NHL superstar obviously, two way stud second line centre at minimum.

3 years later and he's 23 and still a fringe NHLer on a team devoid of centre talent.

Back to Lily, I still like the kid, plays a good safe game. I continue to see the same issue holding him back though, good skater overall but footwork is an issue. He's not big so losing a step with a bad pivot takes him out of the play. Something he'll need to clean up to go from a Dermott level guy (strong bottom pair defender who struggles when moved up) to a legitimate top 4 quality guy.
 
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Not going to get into who the better player is as both have plenty of time in their careers to settle this.

This will look good on the Leafs and their drafting department if guys they picked turn out to be NHL players.
 
5/7 regular NHL defencemen on a strong contending team all drafted/signed and developed internally sounds like a real good number actually.
 
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