The Window Starts Now

[conFABulator]

This year should be viewed as the first in a two year re-tool and re-load for a window to win over the next three to five years. We have a new GM with his first full off-season, a new coach, young players and prospects ready to contribute, contracts coming off the cap, the cap rising, and key players in their prime.

We cannot waste this opportunity and cannot go "all-in" this year at the expense of a window we have here.

THIS OFF-SEASON PRIORITIES

Trade Marner for two pieces and prospects (and therefore cap space). Something like the suggested Wright and Oleksiak (with picks or prospects) is fine for us. Wright gives us a middle-six centre on the right timeline and Oleksiak is a big, hometown boy filling a top four role. Removing Marner will bring a strong, presumably strong cultural change for the team. How issues with contract, the playoffs and the media are not things he will grow out of and he will be gunning for $12M on his next deal. Take two pieces and $6M in cap space.

Deal with Tavares now by extending this this off-season. Get him locked up for three or four more years for under $3M per. For his production as a middle six centre or winger this is good value. We also shouldn't force our hometown captain off the team. Release the pressure valve on him by changing him from overpaid underperformer to underpaid, discount taking leader. He should also trade letters with Matthews. This is Auston's team, let's make it so.

Lock in Bertuzzi and Domi for a combined $10M or less per year for four or five years. These are the types of guys we want. They play hard, they bring the snot and grit, they can play up and down the lineup, and help us absorb the loss of Marner with goals and playmaking for Matthews, on the PP too.

Make room for the kids by moving out overpaid under-contributors. Marner, Samsonov, Brodie, Kampf, and Jarnkrok. Two walk in FA, Marner is dealt, and so are Kampf and Jarnkrok -- the latter two without much return. We need room and opportunity for youngsters to start/continue to contribute. Knies, McMann, Robertson, Holmberg, Dewar, Benoit, Woll can all play at the NHL level and many are ready to give more with more opportunity. We also need to get Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Tverberg, Steeves, Hirvonen, Niemela, Webber, and Hildeby a chance to see if they can be part of this and some will. Maybe find 150 games for this group to split this year. We do this by moving guys out and by not clogging the lineup with too many vets that won't give us much more. Maybe we keep Gregor as RFA though.

Fix the D and start now. In addition to Oleksiak or Larsson, sign three more D at a combined $12M. Make one of them a top four and make at least two of them RD. Sign Liljegren to a one year, show me one last time deal, around $2M. As for rh acquisitions, think Roy with term, and Tanev or Demelo, or Hakanpa, Lyubushkin and Edmundson. Go seven deep and leave opportunities for Niemela, Webber, Rifai, and others to get a cup of NHL coffee.

Bridge goaltending for one more year by spending our remaining cap space wisely. We should have about $4M or $5M left here and spend it on a 1B or high end back up. We have to see if Woll can stay healthy enough to be our guy. I think one of Stolarz, Dredger, Nedjelkovic, Broissoit, DeSmith, Lankinen or Talbot will come at short term, +/- $3M per. Sign Jones and /or Murray as our third guy and maybe sign both so we can inevitably lose one on waivers. Be ready for Hildeby to jump all of these guys and play some games if he shows he is ready.

Knies Matthews Domi
Bertuzzi Tavares Robertson
Cowen Weight Nylander
Dewar Holmberg McMann
Gregor

Rielly Tanev/Demelo
McCabe Oleksiak/Larsson
Benoit Liljegren
Lyubushkin/Edmundson/Haakanpaa

Woll
Stolarz/Broissoit/Nedjelkovic
Jones/Murray
Hildeby

Next Year

1. Use the cap increase to re-sign Knies, Woll, and maybe Liljegren.

2. Use the Tavares savings on an $8M D, F, or G

3. Plan to have 3 or 4 kids busting down the door for meaningful ice time. Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Hildeby, Niemela, etc.

We finally get to a core with proper allocations across F, D and G. We finally have guys contributing on low cap hits, and we finally have a gap rising where we can outspend others.

Click to read more...

 

[The Shadow]

Make sure to time the cap space for McDavid hitting free agency in 2 years

 

[hamzarocks]

1. Marner trade yes

2. Tavares, no, he should not be brought back unless its a desperate last option. And no 3 or 4 year deal. He sucks and should get 1 year deal max

3. Domi + Bert at a max of 8.5M combined for a minimum of 4 years each. Either buy in to the team and committ for a bit cheaper or f*** off

 

[HockeyVirus]

Our window is 4 years, IMO it is likely Matthews either leaves by then or commands a deal that will age poorly in which case it might give us another year or two.

All players we acquire should be with that in mind. We should be confident they can maintain their level of play for at least 4-5 years. Means the oldest players we should be looking at are 30-31.

We need defense badly, because our D is old and will age out. Some young pieces who can grow into top 4 roles would be ideal.

Otherwise, I think they can only do so much this offseason. Figure out a new core and basically see how it goes and wait out Tavares expiring and offer to bring him back super cheap and try to find more depth with his cap.

After that, I am ok with starting a rebuild.

 

[Nineteen67]

What’s the goal of this two year re-tool re-build?

 

[Kazparov]

What’s the goal of this two year re-tool re-build?

Sell jersey's duh

 

[conFABulator]

What’s the goal of this two year re-tool re-build?

To win a Stanley Cup. Shouldn't that be the goal of any rebuild?

 

[All Mod Cons]

I think we have made too many mistakes over the past 6 years to right the ship. I can't see us making the final 4 during the Matthews, Nylander, Marner era.

We could absolutely have become a serious threat for a decade, but we screwed it up as best as you could. It looks like it is way too late to salvage this. Lack of draft picks, tradeable assets, cap control will make it an impossible task.

Meaningful changes should absolutely have been made softer the Colimbus series.

 

[Americanadian]

This year should be viewed as the first in. Two year re-tool and re-load. We have a new GM with his first full off-season, a new coach, young players and prospects ready to contribute, contracts coming off the cap, the cap rising, and key players in their prime.

We cannot waste this opportunity and cannot go "all-in" this year at the expense of a window we have here.

THIS OFF-SEASON PRIORITIES

Trade Marner for two pieces and prospects (and therefore cap space). Something like the suggested Wright and Oleksiak (with picks or prospects) is fine for us. Wright gives us a middle-six centre on the right timeline and Oleksiak is a big, hometown boy filling a top four role. Removing Marner will bring a strong, presumably strong cultural change for the team. How issues with contract, the playoffs and the media are not things he will grow out of and he will be gunning for $12M on his next deal. Take two pieces and $6M in cap space.

Deal with Tavares now by extending this this off-season. Get him locked up for three or four more years for under $3M per. For his production as a middle six centre or winger this is good value. We also shouldn't force our hometown captain off the team. Release the pressure valve on him by changing him from overpaid underperformer to underpaid, discount taking leader. He should also trade letters with Matthews. This is Auston's team, let's make it so.

Lock in Bertuzzi and Domi for a combined $10M or less per year for four or five years. These are the types of guys we want. They play hard, they bring the snot and grit, they can play up and down the lineup, and help us absorb the loss of Marner with goals and playmaking for Matthews, on the PP too.

Make room for the kids by moving out overpaid under-contributors. Marner, Samsonov, Brodie, Kampf, and Jarnkrok. Two walk in FA, Marner is dealt, and so are Kampf and Jarnkrok -- the latter two without much return. We need room and opportunity for youngsters to start/continue to contribute. Knies, McMann, Robertson, Holmberg, Dewar, Benoit, Woll can all play at the NHL level and many are ready to give more with more opportunity. We also need to get Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Tverberg, Steeves, Hirvonen, Niemela, Webber, and Hildeby a chance to see if they can be part of this and some will. Maybe find 150 games for this group to split this year. We do this by moving guys out and by not clogging the lineup with too many vets that won't give us much more. Maybe we keep Gregor as RFA though.

Fix the D and start now. In addition to Oleksiak or Larsson, sign three more D at a combined $12M. Make one of them a top four and make at least two of them RD. Sign Liljegren to a one year, show me one last time deal, around $2M. As for rh acquisitions, think Roy with term, and Tanev or Demelo, or Hakanpa, Lyubushkin and Edmundson. Go seven deep and leave opportunities for Niemela, Webber, Rifai, and others to get a cup of NHL coffee.

Bridge goaltending for one more year by spending our remaining cap space wisely. We should have about $4M or $5M left here and spend it on a 1B or high end back up. We have to see if Woll can stay healthy enough to be our guy. I think one of Stolarz, Dredger, Nedjelkovic, Broissoit, DeSmith, Lankinen or Talbot will come at short term, +/- $3M per. Sign Jones and /or Murray as our third guy and maybe sign both so we can inevitably lose one on waivers. Be ready for Hildeby to jump all of these guys and play some games if he shows he is ready.

Knies Matthews Domi
Bertuzzi Tavares Robertson
Cowen Weight Nylander
Dewar Holmberg McMann
Gregor

Rielly Tanev/Demelo
McCabe Oleksiak/Larsson
Benoit Liljegren
Lyubushkin/Edmundson/Haakanpaa

Woll
Stolarz/Broissoit/Nedjelkovic
Jones/Murray
Hildeby

Next Year

1. Use the cap increase to re-sign Knies, Woll, and maybe Liljegren.

2. Use the Tavares savings on an $8M D, F, or G

3. Plan to have 3 or 4 kids busting down the door for meaningful ice time. Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Hildeby, Niemela, etc.

We finally get to a core with proper allocations across F, D and G. We finally have guys contributing on low cap hits, and we finally have a gap rising where we can outspend others.

Serious question - if you bring in Stolarz or Brossoit to play with Woll, who plays the other 30 games?

 

[Al14]

Make sure to time the cap space for McDavid hitting free agency in 2 years

I don't want McDavid in 2 years. I don't want another Tavares situation with him.

If McDavid truly wanted to be a Leaf, he wouldn't have signed his last deal with such a long term. He can stay in Edmonton and retire there.

He has given Edmonton his best years as a hockey player. I don't want to witness his skills degradation similar to what we are now witnessing with Tavares.

I know a lot of fellow Leaf fans will disagree with me, however I still think I'll be proven right in the end.

Our Leafs need to draft and develop our own superstars. They need to draft better and certainly not overpay them too soon.

JMHO.

 

[Stephen]

I think we have made too many mistakes over the past 6 years to right the ship. I can't see us making the final 4 during the Matthews, Nylander, Marner era.

We could absolutely have become a serious threat for a decade, but we screwed it up as best as you could. It looks like it is way too late to salvage this. Lack of draft picks, tradeable assets, cap control will make it an impossible task.

Meaningful changes should absolutely have been made softer the Colimbus series.

Asset management errors and spendthrift ways to make things happen, clean up mistakes and carelessness at critical positions really hurt the organization over the years but at the same time you can’t help but take a very skeptical eye at what Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly have done as a collective and as individuals in their own ways and wonder if the foundational core wasn’t defective in their own way.

 

[Stephen]

I don't want McDavid in 2 years. I don't want another Tavares situation with him.

If McDavid truly wanted to be a Leaf, he wouldn't have signed his last deal with such a long term. He can stay in Edmonton and retire there.

He has given Edmonton his best years as a hockey player. I don't want to witness his skills degradation similar to what we are now witnessing with Tavares.

I know a lot of fellow Leaf fans will disagree with me, however I still think I'll be proven right in the end.

Our Leafs need to draft and develop our own superstars. They need to draft better and certainly not overpay them too soon.

JMHO.

Seeing what Dallas is doing right now is the most refreshing example to me. Just built an army of depth everywhere, a lot of it grown in house with a couple of generations in house, from grizzled vet to prime aged stars and rookies ready to contribute. It’s a tightly run program they have success, draft extremely well and no one is worried about Jason Robertson or Miro Heiskanen or someone else wanting the biggest contract in the league for X years.

 

[conFABulator]

Serious question - if you bring in Stolarz or Brossoit to play with Woll, who plays the other 30 games?

That is a legitimate question. It's one we need answered. We need 82 games out of Woll, the #2, Jones/Murray, and Hildeby.

There's lots that could go wrong, it could also be better than last year if Will is healthy enough to give us 50 games.

This is one of the reasons it is a two year retool IMO. If we don't have the goalie in house we use the JT savings on a goalie through UFA.

 

[conFABulator]

I think we have made too many mistakes over the past 6 years to right the ship. I can't see us making the final 4 during the Matthews, Nylander, Marner era.

We could absolutely have become a serious threat for a decade, but we screwed it up as best as you could. It looks like it is way too late to salvage this. Lack of draft picks, tradeable assets, cap control will make it an impossible task.

Meaningful changes should absolutely have been made softer the Colimbus series.

I think I am less sure we are beyond the point of return with this group. I do want a new GM (check), a new coach (check), new captain and new culture. The model I am suggesting is Matthews, Nylander and a bunch of $5M to $7M players and kids fighting for spots.

This is all pretty different than what we have seen here. Is it enough? We can try and pull the plug in two years too. We lose two years, but I think have to give this more time with the aforementioned changes.

There should be no running it back with the same core.

 

[Mess]

Seeing what Dallas is doing right now is the most refreshing example to me. Just built an army of depth everywhere, a lot of it grown in house with a couple of generations in house, from grizzled vet to prime aged stars and rookies ready to contribute. It’s a tightly run program they have success, draft extremely well and no one is worried about Jason Robertson or Miro Heiskanen or someone else wanting the biggest contract in the league for X years.

Strong drafting and developing your own in a Salary Cap World is indeed the key to long term success, but as you mentioned you need TEAM players willing to buy into that and not ME players all about being the richest paid $$$$$ in the league at the expense of Cup competitiveness for everyone else and early playoff exits.

A good GM would protect his high draft picks and really build a team around those ELC contracts (with high contributing young players) and 2nd contract bridge RFA deals as those first 7 years are all cost controllable.

Leafs players greed and GM incompetence lead to Leafs missing out on all those RFA years for AM and MM and only got value from Willy on his 2ns deal.

BT now has a chance to fix this with a Marner trade bring back younger cheaper assets and picks and JT contract ending after next year leaving but 2 double digit contracts and start bottom filling the roster with home grown talent.

 

[conFABulator]

1. Marner trade yes

2. Tavares, no, he should not be brought back unless its a desperate last option. And no 3 or 4 year deal. He sucks and should get 1 year deal max

3. Domi + Bert at a max of 8.5M combined for a minimum of 4 years each. Either buy in to the team and committ for a bit cheaper or f*** off

1. we agree

2. JT does NOT suck. If he was a FA this year he would have the most points of any FA center. Overpaid? Yes. He does not suck. I also think loyalty to a captain and hometown guy is the right thing to do organizationally.

3. I agree with this number. I said $10M OR LESS. It is Free agency and either overpay them a bit or other guys. I think these guys come for less than people outside the organization.

 

[conFABulator]

Our window is 4 years, IMO it is likely Matthews either leaves by then or commands a deal that will age poorly in which case it might give us another year or two.

All players we acquire should be with that in mind. We should be confident they can maintain their level of play for at least 4-5 years. Means the oldest players we should be looking at are 30-31.

We need defense badly, because our D is old and will age out. Some young pieces who can grow into top 4 roles would be ideal.

Otherwise, I think they can only do so much this offseason. Figure out a new core and basically see how it goes and wait out Tavares expiring and offer to bring him back super cheap and try to find more depth with his cap.

After that, I am ok with starting a rebuild.

I should have said it's a two year re-tool to a two or three year window. i agree.

In three years we need a lineup that has Matthews, Nylander, Bertuzzi, Domi, Tavares, McMann, Rielly, Oleksiak, Tanev, Benoit and McCabe as our veteran leadership supported and pushed by a wave of guys hitting their stride like Woll, Knies, Cowan, Minten, Robertson, Niemela, Hildeby and tonne of cap space.

 

[PromisedLand]

OP I agree with you in principle but I think the window will truly begin (albeit short window) end of next season when Tavares and Marner (for sure!) will be off the cap.

Marner and Tavares cap hits
- I am not sure Marner is going to waive this season; and even if he waives that's just Marner off the cap. Tavares' cap hit will still count against the cap. Any hope that I had had that Marner will raise his game in the playoffs is basically done for now btw... too many examples in 8 years of playoff performance to show me that Marner is just a regular season performer.
- If Marner doesn't waive you can't force him to waive he will walk as UFA; Leafs must not offer him a contract

- Tavares isn't a top6 center anymore IMO; dude can't skate; and what he brings for 11 AAV is just way too pricy compared to other legit teams in the league. IMO Tavares should only be with the Leafs if he is willing to do Gio deal i.e. League Minimum; if not then thanks but no thanks!

Youngsters:
- IMO Cowen, Minten, McMann, Holmberg, Robertson*, etc... will have to play on ice mistakes and all; get minutes and experience in NHL especially the kids who haven't had much experience as playoffs is another beast so they will learn this upcoming season before they can be "ready" to go

Defense and goaltending
- IMO it will be a two year process (this offseason and next off season) to truly shape and build are Defensive core and hopefully get one stud goalie. For me Goalie is priority #1; Woll is yet to show he is a bonafide #1 IMO

Bert and Domi
- I wouldn't lock them together for 10M AAV. They MUST come in at around 8.5 AAV at max.
- something like 4 to 4.5 AAV and they decide how they wanna split it
- If both sign then Robertson should be traded; if only one of them sign then Robertson should get a top9 role and #1PP unit role if not then Robertson should be traded regardless

Conclusion
Simply put... IMO the window truly opens wide enough starting 2025-2026 season and will remain open until Matthews' contract comes to a close. Basically we will have a 3 year window to really go for it. After that it is "rebuild" again scenario.


Line up 2024-2025 season:
Domi-Matthews-Bertuzzi
Knies-Holmberg-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Marner* (if he doesn't waive for trade)
Minten/Dewar-Kampf-Reaves/Dewar

McCabe XXX
Rielly XXX
Benoit Liljegren
Edmundson (I re-sign him)

XXX gotta find from trades or UFAs

*Trades
- Jarnkrok, Robertson,

If Marner waives then...
Domi-Matthews-Bertuzzi
Knies-Wright-Nylander (assuming trade with Seattle)
McMann-Minten-Tavares* (I'd rather develop Minten as a center)
McMann-Tavares-Cowen (another scenario if don't want Minten playing center yet but I prefer the above scenario)
Holmberg-Kampf-Reaves/Dewar

McCabe XXX
Rielly XXX
Benoit Liljegren
Edmundson (I re-sign him)

XXX gotta find from trades or UFAs

You let Minten/Cowen continue their development in the minors

*Trades
- Jarnkrok, Robertson


GOALIE
XXX
Woll

 

[Trapper]

Most likely scenario, they give Marner 13 million.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

What’s the goal of this two year re-tool re-build?

Next year will be different. Success, finally!

I'm just saying what the goal is, not what the outcome will be.

 

[ToneDog]

Make sure to time the cap space for McDavid hitting free agency in 2 years

The hell with waiting. Talk to McDavid hush hush and get him to ask for a trade like Wayne did.

Marner + Nylander + Rielly for McDavid, Hyman, Bouchard and Soup (cap dump).

 

[Jozay]

whats the obsession with keeping Tavares around?

wouldnt want him back even if it was league min. Effective player but the team needs change.

 

[francis246]

I think we have made too many mistakes over the past 6 years to right the ship. I can't see us making the final 4 during the Matthews, Nylander, Marner era.

We could absolutely have become a serious threat for a decade, but we screwed it up as best as you could. It looks like it is way too late to salvage this. Lack of draft picks, tradeable assets, cap control will make it an impossible task.

Meaningful changes should absolutely have been made softer the Colimbus series.

Meh I think we can. We need a goalie and you gotta move off Tavares and find a legit #2 C. I would honestly let Bertuzzi walk and sign Tyler Toffoli. He’s a better goal scorer

 

[CapspaceKiller]

Trade Marner....clearly, which will happen.

Tavares though, I'm letting him play out the year. I have no trust in him and I'm predicting a massive decline. 20 goals will be a struggle for him.

 

[ToneDog]

Trade Marner....clearly, which will happen.

Tavares though, I'm letting him play out the year. I have no trust in him and I'm predicting a massive decline. 20 goals will be a struggle for him.

20 goals on the 3rd line would be welcome. I would sign him July 1st to 3x3m.