This year should be viewed as the first in a two year re-tool and re-load for a window to win over the next three to five years. We have a new GM with his first full off-season, a new coach, young players and prospects ready to contribute, contracts coming off the cap, the cap rising, and key players in their prime.
We cannot waste this opportunity and cannot go "all-in" this year at the expense of a window we have here.
THIS OFF-SEASON PRIORITIES
Trade Marner for two pieces and prospects (and therefore cap space). Something like the suggested Wright and Oleksiak (with picks or prospects) is fine for us. Wright gives us a middle-six centre on the right timeline and Oleksiak is a big, hometown boy filling a top four role. Removing Marner will bring a strong, presumably strong cultural change for the team. How issues with contract, the playoffs and the media are not things he will grow out of and he will be gunning for $12M on his next deal. Take two pieces and $6M in cap space.
Deal with Tavares now by extending this this off-season. Get him locked up for three or four more years for under $3M per. For his production as a middle six centre or winger this is good value. We also shouldn't force our hometown captain off the team. Release the pressure valve on him by changing him from overpaid underperformer to underpaid, discount taking leader. He should also trade letters with Matthews. This is Auston's team, let's make it so.
Lock in Bertuzzi and Domi for a combined $10M or less per year for four or five years. These are the types of guys we want. They play hard, they bring the snot and grit, they can play up and down the lineup, and help us absorb the loss of Marner with goals and playmaking for Matthews, on the PP too.
Make room for the kids by moving out overpaid under-contributors. Marner, Samsonov, Brodie, Kampf, and Jarnkrok. Two walk in FA, Marner is dealt, and so are Kampf and Jarnkrok -- the latter two without much return. We need room and opportunity for youngsters to start/continue to contribute. Knies, McMann, Robertson, Holmberg, Dewar, Benoit, Woll can all play at the NHL level and many are ready to give more with more opportunity. We also need to get Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Tverberg, Steeves, Hirvonen, Niemela, Webber, and Hildeby a chance to see if they can be part of this and some will. Maybe find 150 games for this group to split this year. We do this by moving guys out and by not clogging the lineup with too many vets that won't give us much more. Maybe we keep Gregor as RFA though.
Fix the D and start now. In addition to Oleksiak or Larsson, sign three more D at a combined $12M. Make one of them a top four and make at least two of them RD. Sign Liljegren to a one year, show me one last time deal, around $2M. As for rh acquisitions, think Roy with term, and Tanev or Demelo, or Hakanpa, Lyubushkin and Edmundson. Go seven deep and leave opportunities for Niemela, Webber, Rifai, and others to get a cup of NHL coffee.
Bridge goaltending for one more year by spending our remaining cap space wisely. We should have about $4M or $5M left here and spend it on a 1B or high end back up. We have to see if Woll can stay healthy enough to be our guy. I think one of Stolarz, Dredger, Nedjelkovic, Broissoit, DeSmith, Lankinen or Talbot will come at short term, +/- $3M per. Sign Jones and /or Murray as our third guy and maybe sign both so we can inevitably lose one on waivers. Be ready for Hildeby to jump all of these guys and play some games if he shows he is ready.
Knies Matthews Domi
Bertuzzi Tavares Robertson
Cowen Weight Nylander
Dewar Holmberg McMann
Gregor
Rielly Tanev/Demelo
McCabe Oleksiak/Larsson
Benoit Liljegren
Lyubushkin/Edmundson/Haakanpaa
Woll
Stolarz/Broissoit/Nedjelkovic
Jones/Murray
Hildeby
Next Year
1. Use the cap increase to re-sign Knies, Woll, and maybe Liljegren.
2. Use the Tavares savings on an $8M D, F, or G
3. Plan to have 3 or 4 kids busting down the door for meaningful ice time. Cowan, Minten, Grebenkin, Hildeby, Niemela, etc.
We finally get to a core with proper allocations across F, D and G. We finally have guys contributing on low cap hits, and we finally have a gap rising where we can outspend others.
