The Vet vs. Prospect theory

[SirloinUB]

You should always play the better player. That's it. It doesn't need to be more complicated than that.

Kasper is better than everybody else in the bottom 6. He would be the best option for 3C today.

It really isn't that simple and pretending it is, is quite naïve.

 

[RedHawkDown]

It really isn't that simple and pretending it is, is quite naïve.

Why?

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

This isn't about Motte, IMO, this is about when this team decides to cut bait on Rasmussen.

 

[SirloinUB]

Why?

Development and competitive cycle are relevant factors.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

It's got nothing to do with regression. Kasper is significantly better than Veleno, Fichser, Motte, and Berggren. He should have a spot above all of those guys.

Based upon what? What do you base this upon that Marco Kasper is better than those four guys today. He clearly is tracking to be... but completely ignoring his draft and prospect pedigree can you with certainty tell me on September 26th at 2:12 PM that he is a better player for a game tomorrow. That's how coaches operate.

And if the Wings want Kasper to be the 2C behind Larkin... what does it matter if he's slightly better than the bottom of the roster guys today? Shouldn't you want him being exposed to situations and minutes that would encourage his development to put the team on his back? To build his offensive chops playing 19-20 minutes a night instead of asking him to play 8-10 minutes a night in Detroit?

This is like the people who absolutely freaked out when the Wings called up Joakim Andersson instead of Anthony Mantha way back when during their last couple playoff "runs". "Oh but Mantha's so much better at hockey!" But Andersson could play center and played a defensively responsible game which is what they were lacking at that moment from whoever got hurt.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Based upon what? What do you base this upon that Marco Kasper is better than those four guys today. He clearly is tracking to be... but completely ignoring his draft and prospect pedigree can you with certainty tell me on September 26th at 2:12 PM that he is a better player for a game tomorrow. That's how coaches operate.

And if the Wings want Kasper to be the 2C behind Larkin... what does it matter if he's slightly better than the bottom of the roster guys today? Shouldn't you want him being exposed to situations and minutes that would encourage his development to put the team on his back? To build his offensive chops playing 19-20 minutes a night instead of asking him to play 8-10 minutes a night in Detroit?

This is like the people who absolutely freaked out when the Wings called up Joakim Andersson instead of Anthony Mantha way back when during their last couple playoff "runs". "Oh but Mantha's so much better at hockey!" But Andersson could play center and played a defensively responsible game which is what they were lacking at that moment from whoever got hurt.

Based on the fact that he was far better than any of those players have ever been in his one single pre season game.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Based on the fact that he was far better than any of those players have ever been in his one single pre season game.

I don't know what I expected.

 

[Frk It]

You should always play the better player. That's it. It doesn't need to be more complicated than that.

Kasper is better than everybody else in the bottom 6. He would be the best option for 3C today.

I don’t think he’s a better player than Copp or Compher as of today.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I don’t think he’s a better player than Copp or Compher as of today.

He isn't. People just like to lose their shit over one preseason game against AHL+ competition.
I think he absolutely deserves to be in the conversation for a roster spot, but wholly hell to people read a lot into a super small sample size. I should have bought futures on preseason over reactions.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This isn't about Motte, IMO, this is about when this team decides to cut bait on Rasmussen.

Rasmussen was probably the best defensive forward on Detroit last year. He's someone I'm fine keeping around in the bottom 6. There are 5 other players in the bottom 6 I want gone before him.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don’t think he’s a better player than Copp or Compher as of today.

He isn't. People just like to lose their shit over one preseason game against AHL+ competition.
I think he absolutely deserves to be in the conversation for a roster spot, but wholly hell to people read a lot into a super small sample size. I should have bought futures on preseason over reactions.

He was on the ice against Bedard's line a lot. Bertuzzi, Bedard, Hall, Foligno, Nazer, Teravainen. They aren't exactly all stars but it's really disingenuous to say he was up against AHL competition.

Better than Compher now? Probably not. Better than Copp? I'd say a fair bit. Better skater, better passer, better stickhandler, better shot, way more physical. Copp is better on faceoffs. I think Kasper could at the minimum match Copp's production from last year with similar icetime while tilting the ice more in the right direction.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Rasmussen was probably the best defensive forward on Detroit last year. He's someone I'm fine keeping around in the bottom 6. There are 5 other players in the bottom 6 I want gone before him.

Right, but that 3rd line winger spot is what is blocking young forwards, since the Wings don't want young guys on the 4th line. Copp isn't going anywhere any time soon. And I don't see the Wings as wanting to use Rasmussen (or Copp) on the 4th line, so it's a conundrum. Something has to give.

 

[Frk It]

He was on the ice against Bedard's line a lot. Bertuzzi, Bedard, Hall, Foligno, Nazer, Teravainen. They aren't exactly all stars but it's really disingenuous to say he was up against AHL competition.

Better than Compher now? Probably not. Better than Copp? I'd say a fair bit. Better skater, better passer, better stickhandler, better shot, way more physical. Copp is better on faceoffs. I think Kasper could at the minimum match Copp's production from last year with similar icetime while tilting the ice more in the right direction.

I don’t think so, and I think Copp would have been a lot more dominant at the AHL level if we are talking about hypotheticals where they switch places last year.

 

[13to40]

Don’t remember how much Gust was signed for this offseason, but I’ve never been a fan.

I understood why he was signed: to directly replace Ghost on the PP, but I would much prefer Ed or Seider there on the PP instead.

With that being said, if AlJo isn’t able to beat him out for the final spot then I think it serves more towards how AlJo hasn’t developed properly or hasn’t hit his full potential yet.

I don’t think the tiebreaker goes to the vet in this case. I think Gust does get waived or traded if AlJo is finally ready to make the jump.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don’t think so, and I think Copp would have been a lot more dominant at the AHL level if we are talking about hypotheticals where they switch places last year.

Copp was one of our worst forwards last season. 3rd or 4th worst amongst the regular forwards from last year. Was the boat anchor on his shutdown line with Fischer and Rasmussen where plays died on his stick in the offensive zone. Copp has turned into Frans f***ing Nielsen 3 years ahead of schedule.

Finished the season with 9 points his final 30 games. Kasper was getting warmed up in his final 30.
Andrew Copp 2023-24 Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

If Kasper could not match 33 points in 79 , 15 minutes a night in the NHL then yeah, total waste of an 8th overall pick. I think Kasper could match or exceed that. And not based off a single preseason game. Based off watching most of his career for the last 3 seasons.

 

[norrisnick]

Copp was one of our worst forwards last season. 3rd or 4th worst amongst the regular forwards from last year. Was the boat anchor on his shutdown line with Fischer and Rasmussen where plays died on his stick in the offensive zone. Copp has turned into Frans f***ing Nielsen 3 years ahead of schedule.

Finished the season with 9 points his final 30 games. Kasper was getting warmed up in his final 30.
Andrew Copp 2023-24 Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

If Kasper could not match 33 points in 79 , 15 minutes a night in the NHL then yeah, total waste of an 8th overall pick. I think Kasper could match or exceed that. And not based off a single preseason game. Based off watching most of his career for the last 3 seasons.

Copp is Compher with worse wingers.

 

[Frk It]

Copp was one of our worst forwards last season. 3rd or 4th worst amongst the regular forwards from last year. Was the boat anchor on his shutdown line with Fischer and Rasmussen where plays died on his stick in the offensive zone. Copp has turned into Frans f***ing Nielsen 3 years ahead of schedule.

Finished the season with 9 points his final 30 games. Kasper was getting warmed up in his final 30.
Andrew Copp 2023-24 Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

If Kasper could not match 33 points in 79 , 15 minutes a night in the NHL then yeah, total waste of an 8th overall pick. I think Kasper could match or exceed that. And not based off a single preseason game. Based off watching most of his career for the last 3 seasons.

Match 33 in 79? Dude he was under .5 ppg in THE AHL last year…

What are we talking about?

 

[TheOctopusKid]

I mean…
Veteran depth player + unproven prospect

Scenario 1: Unproven prospect proves himself in camp or limited call up and team trades away or send cheap veteran away to for now proven prospect - Win!

Scenario 2: Unproven prospect isn’t ready and is sent back down and veteran depth player on short term cheap deal continues to hold spot till kid is ready - Win!

Unproven Prospect on Roster

Scenario 1: Prospect turns out to be great and you plug and play - Win!

Scenerio 2: Prospect not ready. Gets caved in. Confidence goes to hell. Wings don’t make playoffs because there is no depth. Fanbase calls him bust and loads him into trebuchet. Fails with the Sharks - LOSS

Why wouldn’t you just… have the security of a veteran on a nothing deal as a fallback? This isn’t that hard of a concept

 

[norrisnick]

I mean…
Veteran depth player + unproven prospect

Scenario 1: Unproven prospect proves himself in camp or limited call up and team trades away or send cheap veteran away to for now proven prospect - Win!

Scenario 2: Unproven prospect isn’t ready and is sent back down and veteran depth player on short term cheap deal continues to hold spot till kid is ready - Win!

Unproven Prospect on Roster

Scenario 1: Prospect turns out to be great and you plug and play - Win!

Scenerio 2: Prospect not ready. Gets caved in. Confidence goes to hell. Wings don’t make playoffs because there is no depth. Fanbase calls him bust and loads him into trebuchet. Fails with the Sharks - LOSS

Why wouldn’t you just… have the security of a veteran on a nothing deal as a fallback? This isn’t that hard of a concept

Contrary to popular belief. Veterans are allowed to be shipped off to the minors. There are vet deals on the payroll that won't get claimed. So they can move back and forth freely just as easily as a kid that's waiver exempt. It's just an embarrassing situation for the veteran.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

AlJo or Gust?

Mazur or Motte?

What are you REALLY getting, or not getting, by playing a washed up below average Vet, as opposed to the inexperienced, yet upside having Prospect?

johansson over gustafsson for sure. that's a no brainer

maatta - seider
edvinsson - chiarot
johansson - petry
gustafsson - holl

that's a d-corp deployment that doesn't make me want to kill myself

mazur over motte (or fischer or watson or veleno even) less clear. not that i don't doubt that he could perform as well or better than those guys, just that i think mazur has room for development and it would be better for him long term to get big minutes in gr than 4th line minutes in detroit

 

[Retire91]

I of course defer to the experts on the team, for me when you are in a rebuild phase it's the best opportunity to put your prospects in because you don't really need to eek out ever win. In the process you really see what your prospects are made of from a very difficult situation. If someone can thrive through that you know you have a really special player. I know a lot of people say it can stunt growth but I disagree, I think it exposes someone who was not going to play up to their potential anyway. It's a real cut to the chase philosophy.

The only reason I agree is when a prospect is not physically ready like of course nursing an injury or flat out just not filled out yet for NHL play.

 

[Henkka]

This isn't about Motte, IMO, this is about when this team decides to cut bait on Rasmussen.

What's the problem with Rasmussen? His development curve still doesn't differ about a guy like Alex Killorn.

 

[Dotter]

I thought the basic understanding is they'll be brought up when the inevitable injury occurs. Yzerman made a comment about that last season, he expected more injuries. The team stayed relatively healthy.

Kids need to be getting big minutes. Not sitting on the bench watching hockey. Griffins makes more sense... for now.

Depth is a luxury.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

johansson over gustafsson for sure. that's a no brainer

maatta - seider
edvinsson - chiarot
johansson - petry
gustafsson - holl

that's a d-corp deployment that doesn't make me want to kill myself

mazur over motte (or fischer or watson or veleno even) less clear. not that i don't doubt that he could perform as well or better than those guys, just that i think mazur has room for development and it would be better for him long term to get big minutes in gr than 4th line minutes in detroit

Maatta would look like a very different defenseman playing as many minutes as Seider, and not in a good way.

 

[19 for president]

I think Vet vs Prospect depends on #1 is the prospect ready for NHL ice time and #2 their potential deployment.

If you say line 1 gets 20ish minutes a night and you have 40 to spread over the bottom 3. Are we talking lines 2/3 getting 15ish and the 4th getting 10 or less.

If a kid is getting less than 10 min a night at the NHL level but closer to 20 at the AHL level and is someone your project as having offensive upside then I think it benefits them to stay down.

If a kid will get closer to 15 a night on average and be put in at least some offensive situations then I think its more beneficial to have them stay up.

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Kasper, MBN, Danielson, and Mazur are all guys that I think project to play top 9 ideally as they develop. Could they probably all play 4th line right now, I'd say probably yes. I'd not a huge fan of sticking guys you want to develop offensively in shut down roles, as I do think it stymies them a bit offensively. I felt this help back Filppula a bit offensively when he came up.

So the question is can they beat out a guy for a 3rd line or above offensive spot. That also means whatever line Copp is on should be a 4th line because offensively the puck dies with him.

Larkin, Seider, Ray, DBC, Kane, Tank are locks for PP time. There are 4 spots available for PP time, so definitely an opportunity there. (Need to outplay Compher, Gus, Ed, Berggy).

Danielson, Kasper, and Mazur are also strong enough defensively to get a look at the PK which is also a big deal for a young guy. Often they can't be trusted to PK which allows a specialty guy like a Motte to be held onto vs playing the young guy.

Also while I don't want them on a 4th line permanently it is a positive that they can all play a shutdown role if needed because it allows them to slide down the lineup a bit without having to be fully sat if they go through some struggles. If they were offensive only guys, now you are looking at benching them or sending them down which is the kind of yoyoing that isn't good for guys.

One of these guys should make the team assuming they continue to look very solid like the older 3 have. MBN I fully expect play in the minors/SEL as he'd basically need to show that he is top 6 ready to make the team. Wings have plenty of offensive depth in GR for injuries/ callups, as 2 of the guys would be in GR. All 3 of the older guys have an NHL frame now, are showing they can handle NHL physicality, and are defensively responsible.