Let's see how this goes? Hockey fan from Toronto here and someone who enjoys looking at, contemplating, and analyzing rebuilds. This has been a good post to read with lots of balanced input.
Here is my (loaded) question? I think a lot has been done right by the Habs, after a few years of what looked like mismanagement from the outside and now in hindsight. I remember when Montreal went to the finals and some (many) members of the fanbase felt it was bittersweet, with winning being good of course, but also extending MB's tenure. The question:
Does Montreal have the high end pieces require to convert the rebuild to a success? It seems as though Slafkovsky has to build on the back half of last season and become the star that leads this team. That's possible, but also a lot of pressure on one kid.
It's impossible to say if the Canadiens have the high end pieces with certainty. But it looks pretty positive. Several players have superstar potential.
Demidov - Drafted 5th overall and thought by many to be the 2nd best offensive talent in the draft
Slafkovsky - Big talented winger who grew exponentially last season and put up great numbers for a 19 year old
Caufield - 48 goals in his first 82 games under MSL. Shoulder surgery sidelined that progress but he has a good chance to recover
Hutson - Record highest NCAA points in his first two years. All indications that he should at the very least be an excellent PP QB
None of those players are Connor Bedard. None are sure thing superstars. But all have excellent potential.
Then there are really good young players like Reinbacher, Roy, Guhle, Maillioux, Newhook, Dach. Maybe not star players but definitely solid, good players with nice upside.
Nick Suzuki provides good leadership and solid two way play. He was also one of the best players in the league from February onward last season.
It's a very promising group.
Am I seeing this right? The surrounding group of youth seems to be solid from Suzuki to Caulfield to a stable of young D and possibly/probably a goalie good enough to not be the reason you don't start winning.
I know there were injuries to Dach and Newhook and you need them to be healthy, do you also need them to be much better than they have showed in their careers this far?
Is the best thing for this team to bottom out one more time and end up at the top end of the draft? Sell off the remaining vets and then start upward? Are they too good for this to happen? Would this hurt the development of the boatload of youth on the roster this season?
I think they may add one more depth player to the scoring group. They may not though. This team could very well go into the season as is. Some on this board won't be happy with that but a good portion of the board is fine with it.
I personally expect improvement but for us to be outside the playoffs looking in. But it's a transition year and it's hard to predict. We could fall off or overperform and make it. The most important thing this year is for Kirby Dach to have a healthy season. So much depends on him. If he has another big injury, that will create a hole that HUGO will look to fill.
This is not a knock and maybe the more productive way to phrase the question is what things need to happen for this rebuild to become a successful one, not just a potentially successful one?
Health is the number one factor.
The pieces are there. There's a really good group up front and on the backend. But the Canadiens have had terrible injuries that have derailed progress. Caufield's shoulder limited his shooting ability. Dach hasn't played enough. Newhook had a great streak going and then got hurt, only to finish the season on another hot streak.
The talent is there. And the Canadiens seem to have finally figured out development. If they can just stay healthy they should have a good long run once they got all the pieces together.
My opinion, I wouldn't start rushing it from here. Try to strike the balance of losing while developing key pieces one more year. Trade off the valuable veterans in Gallagher, Savard, Matheson, Dvorak, and Armia (retain where you have to) and try to get a few more high end bullets in the chamber. Maybe keep Beck and Demidov away from the bigs for another year? Is there a quicker way to achieve the same results we are talking about? A way to not have one more year on the way down before you start the way up?
I'm fine with them going into next year as is. If we add more scoring depth? Great. We'll probably need it at some point as there will be injuries. But the club should improve if health isn't too bad. One area where I think Montreal could use some help is with another big bodied power foward. If they can add a big winger, that will improve their long term chances.
And the Canadiens have a few other things going for them as well. They've locked up most of their key players at long reasonable contracts. And they have a lot to trade with, particularly blueline talent. They have two more firsts in the next draft as well. HUGO has done a great job positioning the team going forward.
It's been a long time since anyone here could honestly say this.