The state of the Habs Rebuild - The Next step

[Sorinth]

I mean, I said "Let's say" ideally and not straight up "a rebuild should take this long." It's more of a hypothetical rather than a statement of fact that is backed up through research.

If you want some though...

2008: Lightning drafted Stamkos
2010-2011: Lightning went to the conference finals

2011: Colorado drafted Landeskog
2013-2014: Colorado made the playoffs

2013: Florida drafts Barkov
2015-2016: Florida makes the playoffs.

I said I'm looking for progression, not for our team to start trading away every draft pick we have for guys in their prime looking to win. The teams (cup winners, as you were so eager to point out) you mentioned all progressed fairly quickly in some shape or form after going through struggles and picking those guys.

As for the draft picks comment, if you don't count Dach and Newhook as pieces that Hughes has acquired for the rebuild and omit them to suit your narrative, you're being disingenuous.

I have plenty of patience; I'm not one of the super-competitive athletes who have to play on this team year in and year out. Too much losing is a killer on culture and can quickly become toxic if that's all it is. Year 5-6-7 of just losing and not being good enough, a lot of these 'kids' we have are starting to become men, and all they've known is losing. That's not good. That's how you become Buffalo or Columbus or Phoenix etc..

And the year after all 3 teams were picking top-10 again, on top of which for Florida and Colorado you would actually need to start 2 years earlier with the Duchene and Hubredeau picks, I excluded them from the original post because neither player was part of the team that won the cup, but if talking about making the playoffs being the sign that the rebuild is complete then they should be included.

But somehow I doubt make the playoffs in 2 years, then go back to picking top-10 three years from now is what you imagine a successful rebuild to be. So the point remains that this 5 year rebuild is a fantasy.

As for seeing progress, you can't have been looking for it very hard given that we've gone from 55 to 68 to 76 points, our GF/G has gone from 2.66 to 2.77 to 2.83, our GA/G has gone from 3.87 to 3.72 to 3.43. There's been steady progress each and every year.

 

[HABitual Fan]

I mean who takes those spots, are rookies expected to take over in less than a season?

With only one retention spot available they will probably have to take expiring contracts back in order to up the value of Dvorak, Savard and Armia. As well they can use available cap room to take on players from teams needing to clear room for acquisitions for picks.

 

[Rapala]

B+ for now.

Next draft will be very important for us. I know everyone expect us to battle for a playoff spot. I still believe we will finish around 7-11.

We will probably need to draft a elite center in the next draft, if Dach don't stay healthy or don't play well in the center position.

?????

 

[Milhouse40]

Not a tank, but they aren't gonna let UFAs walk for nothing and eventually this year they'll want to give experience to players who will be part of the long term future of the club.

Clearly they know this year is about being competitive but not a playoffs at all cost. Their restraint on UFAs showed that.

It's all a matter of where they will be at that point and what's out there.

If they are out of the race, they will sell everything for sure. No debate.

But if they are in it, it's another story.

I could see them doing what we've seen more lately which is a team both selling and buying at the same time. But what I don't see is KH trading all UFA for 2nd or 3rd in order to replace them by a jersey fillers....not with the ton of picks and prospects we already have in the bank.

 

[salbutera]

You have an indelicate point. Tomorrow isn’t promised to anyone. I’m at the stage where I don’t even buy green bananas.

Awesome - I plan on plagiarizing that line if you’re ok with it?

 

[Paddyjack]

You have an indelicate point. Tomorrow isn’t promised to anyone. I’m at the stage where I don’t even buy green bananas.

I hear ya buddy. I realized that this year I already outlived my mother (she was 55). They have to win that Cup fast!

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Awesome - I plan on plagiarizing that line if you’re ok with it?

Not my creation. Its all yours.

 

[Mrb1p]

First off that's just more evidence that the statement a rebuild should ideally take 5 years is little more then fantasy.

Second, every GM inherits prospects from the previous GM, but no we haven't been rebuilding since 2016. 2 high picks in 6 years isn't evidence that a rebuild has been ongoing, and why even stop there, Galchenyuk in 2012, would be 2 top picks in 5 years which, and before that McDongagh in 2007, and Price in 2005, Kostitsyn in 2003, Komisarek in 2001, Ward in 97, Ryan in 95. Are we saying that we've been rebuilding for 20 years now? Or just maybe it's the norm to get a top pick every 5-6 years if you aren't a long term contending team. There's a difference between trying to make the playoffs every year and occasionally coming up short and getting a good pick and rebuilding.

Yes, theres a difference between trying to make the POs every year and not coming up short and actively not try to make the POs. With the Plekanec move, they stopped trying to make the playoffs. They stopped using youth and futures to bolster the current lineup, in fact, they used veterans like Plekanec, Pacioretty and Scandella to bolster up the future. That is the main difference. It's an economics difference, Bergevin was in a spending window from 12 to 16, he was in an accumulation phase from 16 to 22. Even so, it wouldn't even matter in the grand scheme of things what label Bergevin decided to put on his team building if the results were similar. A 9th, 3rd, 15, 16 and 1st OA in the span of 7 years is entirely an accumulation phase, and then you can also consider that the pick numbers were 32 top 100 picks in a span of 7 years, which adds to 4.5 picks within the first 3.2 rounds, which is of course a great indication of an accumulation phase.

A simple way to look at things is to look at the current core and see where they come from:
Suzuki
Caufield
Guhle
Romanov/Dach
Xhekaj
Montambeault
Roy
Kapanen


Are all Bergevin players, thus the rebuild started way before Bergevin ever left.

If we picked Hughes in 2018, Caufield in 2019, Guhle in 2020 and Oettinger in 2017, would we also be clamoring for a 6-7 years rebuild because "HuGo has only been here 2 years" ? Of course not, that's just silly.

Labels are silly overall, it doesn't matter what we think, a team is ready to compete when a team is ready to compete, and right now, the pieces are there to start priming ourselves towards competition.

I mean who takes those spots, are rookies expected to take over in less than a season?

Taking over for Dvorak shouldn't be too hard as he's a ghost and often injured.

Taking over for Savard should be near impossible, IMO. He is the glue that sticks the squad together. They should just resign him and move Matheson instead, Im sure he'd take a very team friendly deal.

 

[WeThreeKings]

It's all a matter of where they will be at that point and what's out there.

If they are out of the race, they will sell everything for sure. No debate.

But if they are in it, it's another story.

I could see them doing what we've seen more lately which is a team both selling and buying at the same time. But what I don't see is KH trading all UFA for 2nd or 3rd in order to replace them by a jersey fillers....not with the ton of picks and prospects we already have in the bank.

They'll look for Meier deals but they're not gonna pay for pending UFA they can't or don't want to sign. The experience for the young kids and giving them key roles is more important than just having guys not part of the future take up roster spots and minutes in a year they aren't expecting playoffs.

 

[ReHabs]

As for seeing progress, you can't have been looking for it very hard given that we've gone from 55 to 68 to 76 points, our GF/G has gone from 2.66 to 2.77 to 2.83, our GA/G has gone from 3.87 to 3.72 to 3.43. There's been steady progress each and every year.

This is undeniable. To make the next step and play meaningful games is even more exciting though.

 

[HuGort]

What was the gauranteed return for Anderson Hughes turned down?
Paid thru the nose......not really at all.
A redundant young D for chance at a #2 big centre former 3rd OA......any and every day please.
How many late 1st rd picks contribute anything significant in the NHL? (Hint....not many) Newhook will out perform most late 1st rd picks taken around the pick they moved. Again worth a shot but I'll say not as happy as with the Dach deal)
Mesar, not my cup of tea but they looked for skill is my guess. ( and the obvious connection to another pick that year )
So ya don't wanna gamble on a Dach or Newhook but wanna gamble on a redundant D or picks that historically for all nhl teams don't give ya a whole lot?
Sounds like just trying to pick a bone for whatever reason.
Not all moves will work out but they have taken shots, been creative and aggressive and it's refreshing.

Never disclosed. But media said substantial. Some speculate a first round pick. At 28 Anderson would been a piece for team a physical guy away from cup. I would have pulled the trigger. Usually hard nosed guys by 30 are done. Mesar just total waste of a first. Small semi skilled forward. Last thing we need. Barron has skill but no hockey IQ.

All GMs their first few years this board thinks are next Sam Pollock. Gainey was the same with Kovalev trade, among others. Then we started to see the Samansov signings, Gomez trades. Andre Savard did same. Bergevin was loved on here his first few years. Weise, Vanek, Weaver, getting to semi finals his second year. Galchenyuk looked like great pick. Now, it's Hughes turn

 

[rve24]

Never disclosed. But media said substantial. Some speculate a first round pick. At 28 Anderson would been a piece for team a physical guy away from cup. I would have pulled the trigger. Usually hard nosed guys by 30 are done. Mesar just total waste of a first. Small semi skilled forward. Last thing we need. Barron has skill but no hockey IQ.

All GMs their first few years this board thinks are next Sam Pollock. Gainey was the same with Kovalev trade, among others. Then we started to see the Samansov signings, Gomez trades. Andre Savard did same. Bergevin was loved on here his first few years. Weise, Vanek, Weaver, getting to semi finals his second year. Galchenyuk looked like great pick. Now, it's Hughes turn

You should send the Habs your CV and bring the team n fans a Cup.
Hughes has done a good job so far. Time will tell.if it's enough.
Pick your 3 best current GMs and you find 3 teams that, in hindsight, didn't make every perfect move.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Never disclosed. But media said substantial. Some speculate a first round pick. At 28 Anderson would been a piece for team a physical guy away from cup. I would have pulled the trigger. Usually hard nosed guys by 30 are done. Mesar just total waste of a first. Small semi skilled forward. Last thing we need. Barron has skill but no hockey IQ.

All GMs their first few years this board thinks are next Sam Pollock. Gainey was the same with Kovalev trade, among others. Then we started to see the Samansov signings, Gomez trades. Andre Savard did same. Bergevin was loved on here his first few years. Weise, Vanek, Weaver, getting to semi finals his second year. Galchenyuk looked like great pick. Now, it's Hughes turn

A late first is NOT substantial and not enough when retention would be required.

 

[Sorinth]

Yes, theres a difference between trying to make the POs every year and not coming up short and actively not try to make the POs. With the Plekanec move, they stopped trying to make the playoffs. They stopped using youth and futures to bolster the current lineup, in fact, they used veterans like Plekanec, Pacioretty and Scandella to bolster up the future. That is the main difference. It's an economics difference, Bergevin was in a spending window from 12 to 16, he was in an accumulation phase from 16 to 22. Even so, it wouldn't even matter in the grand scheme of things what label Bergevin decided to put on his team building if the results were similar. A 9th, 3rd, 15, 16 and 1st OA in the span of 7 years is entirely an accumulation phase, and then you can also consider that the pick numbers were 32 top 100 picks in a span of 7 years, which adds to 4.5 picks within the first 3.2 rounds, which is of course a great indication of an accumulation phase.

A simple way to look at things is to look at the current core and see where they come from:
Suzuki
Caufield
Guhle
Romanov/Dach
Xhekaj
Montambeault
Roy
Kapanen


Are all Bergevin players, thus the rebuild started way before Bergevin ever left.

If we picked Hughes in 2018, Caufield in 2019, Guhle in 2020 and Oettinger in 2017, would we also be clamoring for a 6-7 years rebuild because "HuGo has only been here 2 years" ? Of course not, that's just silly.

Labels are silly overall, it doesn't matter what we think, a team is ready to compete when a team is ready to compete, and right now, the pieces are there to start priming ourselves towards competition.

It might be a simple way of looking at it but it's also a stupid way to look at it. The rebuild starts when the GM decides to rebuild and acts on that decision by actually rebuilding. Yes when you decide to rebuild there will have prospects and young players who will be part of the rebuild, that's the nature of getting draft picks every year. A 5th round pick who defies the odds and becomes an NHL player doesn't mean the rebuild started when that 5th round pick got drafted any more the we can say the rebuild started in 1992 when we drafted Rivet and then traded him for Pacioretty who we in turn traded for Suzuki.

 

[HuGort]

You should send the Habs your CV and bring the team n fans a Cup.
Hughes has done a good job so far. Time will tell.if it's enough.
Pick your 3 best current GMs and you find 3 teams that, in hindsight, didn't make every perfect move.

Much harder rebuilding a team than getting to finals. We'll see what we have then. I've heard this stuff before early on with Gainey, Savard, Bergevin, etc ..

 

[Habs13]

I think we've reached the "waiting for the bad contacts to expire" stage where there isn't a lot more than can be done until that happens

 

[habbubba]

I was beginning to wonder if the word BRIDGE was even in Hughes lexicon, can see now that it is, merveilleux!

 

[Beer and Chips]

Year three and we still don't know if Kirby Dach is our 2C, maybe we should hang onto that second first round pick, just in case.

 

[DAChampion]

Sign or trade for an impact forward sometimes soon.

 

[Habby4Life]

Sign or trade for an impact forward sometimes soon.

One can hope

 

[rve24]

Much harder rebuilding a team than getting to finals. We'll see what we have then. I've heard this stuff before early on with Gainey, Savard, Bergevin, etc ..

Really? Getting to the finals is a tough task. Teams rebuild constantly but never reach a finals. It's easy to dump n acquire, it's hard to get to the mountain top. I got a feeling if they ever do get to the finals the bar will change to win the finals.
So no answer to the question Of your top 3 GMs so we can dissect their moves? And compare to Hughes.
I get wanting to wait to evaluate if its a success but your also evaluating their effectiveness (your perceived mistakes) before it entirely plays out.

 

[ZUKI]

The funny thing with the present management is that most of us are happy with them when in fact, the team has really bad results since they are there ....

i know, i know,,,, i like them too! and no need to shit and crying on the previous group and Bergevin.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Sign or trade for an impact forward sometimes soon.

 

[DAChampion]

Draisatl is not and will not be available.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Draisatl is not and will not be available.

Wrong he’s signing with the Habs 7x$8M