Blue Jays Discussion: The "So, How About Them Blue Jays?" Edition. [1.5 Games ahead of Yankees]

[Suntouchable13]

U.S. national feed for all playoff games. However, if a game 163 is required to settle a division leader tie, I think that could be a Sportsnet production since it is considered part of the regular season.

I think playoff games will be produced by Sportsnet. Why wouldn't they be? Buck and Pat will call all the games. Just like for Raptors playoff games you don't get the national US feed. I would expect the same for Jays.

 

[mikebel111*]

A sweep would certainly be nice, but even if they lose today thats not horrible, would still have 1.5 game lead over the Yankees

This team has a knack for stepping up against hot teams/ teams they are close in standings and even crushing their spirits.
Yankees. Angels, Rangers

Rangers perfect example. Steal a game late and make it a heartbreaking loss for the Rangers and than coming in the next night and embarass them. That could ruin the mojo of a team. One could say the next series the Rangers will face an adversity check

This team is coming along and everyone is finding a way to contribute

 

[mikebel111*]

He should get more tougher roles than Hawkins IMO.

Agreed. Hawkins is too hittable right now. Lowe can and has shown he can have a shutdown inning

 

[southpaw24]

It's funny listening to yanks fans in mlb on Sirius/Xm ***** about cashman not making any more moves at the deadline and girardi needing to be fired, such a turnaround since trade deadline it's hilarious

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think playoff games will be produced by Sportsnet. Why wouldn't they be? Buck and Pat will call all the games. Just like for Raptors playoff games you don't get the national US feed. I would expect the same for Jays.

No local TV broadcasts for the MLB playoffs. Fox and TBS own the rights. Buck will be working for TBS like he has for the last few years.

There will be local radio, however.

 

[mikebel111*]

Man the Yankees struggles are so similar to what happened to us last season. Our GM didnt make a move at TD. And than we got hit by the injury bug and we didnt recover. Hopefully Yankees sufer the same faith, it doesnt help though that Angels are having their annual season ending callapse

 

[Bjindaho]

Had some time to kill this morning, so I ran the numbers for some of our current guys against the HOF monitor (note: 100 is usually the benchmark to be a HOF player).

Bautista is currently at 66.5, Price 55.5, Tulo 45.5, Martin 39, Encarnacion 21, and Donaldson 16.5 (Note: if you look at B-Rs numbers, they give Donaldson credit for all the categories he is currently leading...the only assumption I made was around Price and his ERA).

 

[theaub]

babip regressed stats (ie an extremely unscientific way of seeing what projected stats would be if everyone babip'd .300)

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The tough part about using .300 is that some guys will never babip that high for a sustained period of time. Conversely, other guys may have babips well above .300 consistently.

That said, I like the idea of analyzing a given players historical babip and regressing or progressing to that mean from their current level.

For example, Tulo with his .320 career babip vs his second half babip in 2015 of .250.

 

[Discoverer]

babip regressed stats (ie an extremely unscientific way of seeing what projected stats would be if everyone babip'd .300)

Interesting, thanks for that.

I think a more accurate representation of what to expect from players would be to use their career BABIP, since that's where they're most likely to hit the rest of the way. That would bump up a high BABIP guy like Tulo (career .321) and drop a guy like Edwin (career .262), although it would admittedly be tough for someone like Colabello who doesn't have a whole lot of major league experience.

 

[Discoverer]

The tough part about using .300 is that some guys will never babip that high for a sustained period of time. Conversely, other guys may have babips well above .300 consistently.

That said, I like the idea of analyzing a given players historical babip and regressing or progressing to that mean from their current level.

For example, Tulo with his .320 career babip vs his second half babip in 2015 of .250.

Damn you.

 

[theaub]

lol I was going to use career BABIP but in the bluntest sense I am a lazy, lazy person.

I'll run it now though just need to plug in the numbers.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Damn you.

Your point on Colabello is well made. It's easy to argue a babip of .400 is extremely unsustainable. Also, that even expecting a babip north of .300 is hard to predict given the lack of major league plate appearances.

That being said, his AA and AAA numbers were all boosted by high babips. You have to then weigh how heavily you want to buy into those numbers. I could see him settling in as a .310-.315 guy given the track record.

 

[theaub]

Okay, Pt II

Anyone with 1000+ MLB PA's - used their career BABIP. Anyone under 1000, prorated their career BABIP with an expected .300 BABIP until they reach 1000 PA's

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Okay, Pt II

Anyone with 1000+ MLB PA's - used their career BABIP. Anyone under 1000, prorated their career BABIP with an expected .300 BABIP until they reach 1000 PA's

Good job. Looks about right to me. The Tulo numbers are obviously a little weird because they don't include his Colorado figures.

Also, one Benjamin Daniel Revere (esq) is missing. I believe he'd own the highest career babip of all the regulars with the 1000 PA's.

 

[Discoverer]

Okay, Pt II

Anyone with 1000+ MLB PA's - used their career BABIP. Anyone under 1000, prorated their career BABIP with an expected .300 BABIP until they reach 1000 PA's

Now could you just do us one more favour and quickly do the same while weighting recent years more heavily to account for changes in approach and then convert those final numbers into wRC+ for us? Thanks!

But seriously... that's awesome.

 

[tml19]

My question is how are the Twins even in the race?

 

[Divine]

I think the problem after the Twins series is going to be that the Jays don't have any strong opponents until the end of the season, excluding the Yankees.

I would have preferred to potentially go into the postseason after facing top teams with good pitchers, rather than coasting.

 

[tp71]

I think the problem after the Twins series is going to be that the Jays don't have any strong opponents until the end of the season, excluding the Yankees.

I would have preferred to potentially go into the postseason after facing top teams with good pitchers, rather than coasting.

I don't care who they face, just get to the playoffs.

 

[Divine]

I don't care who they face, just get to the playoffs.

How'd that work for the Raptors? I would actually prefer playoff success...

 

[theaub]

Blue Jays stats pt 3

Notes
- Revere included
- didn't weight career BABIP as there wasn't really a great weighting model (and the only person it would affect is Reyes who will be taken out soon enough)
- probably a calculation error in here somewhere that I'll find

I'll start doing this weekly since its pretty simple.

 

[Suntouchable13]

What do you guys think about the Jays depth? Let's say a guy like Tulo, or Donny, or Bautista, or EE, or even Price goes on the DL, are they Jays screwed? One guy, not talking about the whole team getting decimated by injuries in Sept.

 

[TootooTrain]

How'd that work for the Raptors? I would actually prefer playoff success...

For a team that has one of the longest playoff droughts, I'll take the experience either way. The notoriety that comes with making the post-season so that certain free agents might be swayed to come here and make the club stronger. Not to mention just being a fan and enjoying it. Lots of positives for just getting to the dance. Ofcourse we'd all "prefer" to have success.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I think the problem after the Twins series is going to be that the Jays don't have any strong opponents until the end of the season, excluding the Yankees.

I would have preferred to potentially go into the postseason after facing top teams with good pitchers, rather than coasting.

I have no idea what you expect the Jays to do about their schedule ... It's not like they have a choice in the matter. Most of their games are within their division anyway, which are always tough regardless of the other teams record. The Rays always play the Jays tough, as to the O's, the Yankee's as well .. The Red Sox seem like the easiest but I'd never count them out.

How'd that work for the Raptors? I would actually prefer playoff success...

Different teams .. Relatively speaking, the Jays have much better players (some amongst the best in the league at their position) relative to what the Raptors have.

 

[TootooTrain]

What do you guys think about the Jays depth? Let's say a guy like Tulo, or Donny, or Bautista, or EE, or even Price goes on the DL, are they Jays screwed? One guy, not talking about the whole team getting decimated by injuries in Sept.

I would think that if you take any teams top 2 guy out of the lineup it would have an immediate impact on the team's success. The one situation I see hurting the most is in the rotation, but I despise these "what if" scenario's so let's just run down the bench/depth chart instead.

AA said they have 5-6 guys on their mind for callups for september. Compared to the 8-10 they had last year who were mostly kids.

Rotation - You obviously have Stroman in the wings in late sept assuming his recovery goes without a hitch. Copeland, Redmond, Hendriks/Sanchez piggyback maybe if they were forcing the issue.
Bullpen - Delabar, Tepera, Loup.
Positional - They've got infield depth with Goins, Penny, Cola. Tolleson (although people were commenting earlier that he has some physical ailments). Pompey, enough said. Fields as a potential defensive replacement/pinch runner.