Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[417]

He did not start the next season worse! His pre-season was 3 times better than the first one, his chemistry with Dach and Newhook was obvious. When Dach went down, and he was put with a Newhook who was learning C in our system and Anderson who could not buy a goal and could still never set up a goal, Slaf's stats suffered. But not his play.

His play was much better and many of us pointed it out. The stats-focused posters couldn't see it, especially those who were skeptical of his skills since the draft debates. But by mid-November, both MSL and Nick Suzuki said that Slaf was ready for first line duties. How fans can still say they were right that he was bad, while the coach and captain were wrong, after the results proved he was ready, is beyond me.

Agreed...it seems some folks have decided to reshape their previous argument around Slafkovsky's progression this season, as being some kind of unforeseen or exceptional event.

It really wasn't...was it a slow burn, absolutely, but the process was there. The results were inevitable.

 

[Tyson]

Would be great team building in terms of assembling a cap competitive team. Today, Slaf probably compares himself to both Suzuki and Caufield in terms of him reaching his ceiling so why not get him paid the same and avoid all the contract distraction talk all season long.

With Slaf, a 8 year contract would be 4 RFA and 4 UFA. If the 8 year term and AAV is not something they agree on, Hughes can do the 3 year bridge at a lower cap hit. That could be risky to Slaf in terms of staying in the 50-60 points range or any potential derail.

I always find this interesting to manage. Team vs Player perspective and it's gambling a bit on the what the future looks like. Nobody knows

Sign him to 8x8 asap because his upside is significant

 

[BLONG7]

Sign him to 8x8 asap because his upside is significant

He is part of the core..............so the sooner he gets locked up the better.
I do think that Hughes will have him and his agent to agree to be in the 7.5m - 7.8M range ala his linemates......

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Zegras to the habs confirmed

 

[Treal]

Zegras to the habs confirmed

Plus Zegras has red, white and blue gloves on!! All the way confirmed!!

 

[417]

He is part of the core..............so the sooner he gets locked up the better.
I do think that Hughes will have him and his agent to agree to be in the 7.5m - 7.8M range ala his linemates......

I'm sure that's what Hughes would love, not sure his agent would.

 

[Leto]

I'm sure that's what Hughes would love, not sure his agent would.

Should Slafkovsky continue on his growth trajectory, his agent will ask at minimum the same cap % as Caufield/Suzuki adjusted to the next cap ceiling. Since his next contract is expected to kick in 2025-2026 and the cap ceiling is estimated to reach 92m by then, I expect something around ~8.65m AAV.​

 

[417]

Should Slafkovsky continue on his growth trajectory, his agent will ask at minimum the same cap % as Caufield/Suzuki adjusted to the next cap ceiling. Since his next contract is expected to kick in 2025-2026 and the cap ceiling is estimated to reach 92m by then, I expect something around ~8.65m AAV.​

Agree, hence why I'm not sure it's realistic to expect him to "cap himself" under Suzuki and/or Caufield's contract given they don't represent the teams salary cap ceiling.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sign him to 8x8 asap because his upside is significant

Angle I would take is we believe in you like Suzuki and Caufield and we would like to pay you the same. It would be greedy to ask more than Suzuki and Caufield and I don't think Slaf is that type. He knows our system well and how we spend a lot of time and energy to get him in the best development situation as possible.

Lets play the future forecast game... Where does Slaf max out at? 60-80 pts and a power game added?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Agree, hence why I'm not sure it's realistic to expect him to "cap himself" under Suzuki and/or Caufield's contract given they don't represent the teams salary cap ceiling.

Yeah but that's with the understanding he is a sure shot 60-80+ player and can do that without Suzuki on his line. Betting on yourself does work in many situations but also doesn't in many others. What happens if Slaf plays with Dach next year and it's another 50 pts, 20-25 goal season? Our roster becomes loaded with several guys in the 50-60 pts range due to usage which is very possible.

Slaf is not driving anything at this point. Suzuki is. Slaf had a great 2nd half because he was with Suzuki for most of it. Slaf knows this and so does his agent. I remember fans pumping up Caufield to be better than Suzuki before last season as well.

In truth, the Habs are the ones taking the leap of faith after his good 2nd season, good 2nd half with Suzuki. Asking him if he is interested in a 8x $7.25M-$7.75M deal is not an unreasonable stance for our organization. Why? Because we believe he is on par with Suzuki and Caufield, not much, much, better.

We have a good performing young player but he's not MacKinnon.

 

[417]

Yeah but that's with the understanding he is a sure shot 60-80+ player and can do that without Suzuki on his line.

Betting on yourself does work in many situations but also doesn't in many others. What happens if Slaf plays with Dach next year and it's another 50 pts, 20-25 goal season?

He's not driving anything at this point. Suzuki is. Slaf had a great 2nd half because he was with Suzuki for most of it. Slaf knows this and so does his agent. I remember fans pumping up Caufield to be better than Suzuki before last season as well.

I just don't know why if as a player, especially a guy picked 1st overall, you would want to limit your earnings based on a teams arbitrary internal cap, rather than the teams salary cap.

Revenues determines contract ceilings, not individual players.

The cap is scheduled to increase in the coming years, why wouldn't a long term contract signed now (or in the next 6-12 months or so), not take that into consideration?

If the pie is bigger, shouldn't his slice (again from his point of view), also be bigger if the organization deems he's a player they want to build around for the long term?

Me personally, i'm always for players maximizing their earnings...it's not their jobs to manage the team's salary's cap.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I just don't know why if as a player, especially a guy picked 1st overall, you would want to limit your earnings based on a teams arbitrary internal cap, rather than the teams salary cap.

Revenues determines contract ceilings, not individual players.

The cap is scheduled to increase in the coming years, why wouldn't a long term contract signed now (or in the next 6-12 months or so), not take that into consideration?

If the pie is bigger, shouldn't his slice (again from his point of view), also be bigger if the organization deems he's a player they want to build around for the long term?

Me personally, i'm always for players maximizing their earnings...it's not their jobs to manage the team's salary's cap.

Not your prototypical 1st OA pick. More like a top 5 pick narrative in a weak draft.

What you are talking about is greed. Absolute max earnings with no thinking about the team and the player you are playing with to help you get to this point today. Yes, there are players/agents like this out there. But that's not how you build a contender in a salary cap and usually selfish players demand this kind of attention. I don't believe that is Slaf's type of personality and he doesn't have the same pedigree as MacKinnon to bank on himself in the way you are describing. I think our fan base is a bit guilty of pumping up his good 2nd half too much. It warrants good attention and compliments but not in big way like demanding more than Suzuki and Caufield at this stage. I get what you are saying but he just has not earned that type of hype or even confidence to bank on himself that way. It's been a long 2 years for him so far and he knows the challenges ahead of him.

Asking for more than $8M x8 after this season would be greed to me. If not greed, overly confident but let me ask you this? Is he leading the charge and line by himself, or is he sliding into the mix and starting to show signs of producing? With me, it's the later. Of course he has potential but Suzuki and MSL brought it out faster and compliments his growth. I think Slaf and his agent knows this more than anybody else

If Slaf and his agent think he is a 80+ forward regardless of who he plays with, they are too cocky. Don't worry, Hughes will manage this well. Some thought Caufield would ask for $9M AAV... I remember it.

I see it as the Habs taking a bigger leap of faith than Slaf wanting to bank on himself as a 80+ forward. If the Habs approached him with the $7.25M - $7.75M x8 extension and he started to ask for more, I let him finish the 3 year ELC, take him off the Suzuki line and see if he can do the same with Dach next year. I just don't see him burning us where he all of a sudden is a 80+ forward regardless of the usage and who he plays with.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Should Slafkovsky continue on his growth trajectory, his agent will ask at minimum the same cap % as Caufield/Suzuki adjusted to the next cap ceiling. Since his next contract is expected to kick in 2025-2026 and the cap ceiling is estimated to reach 92m by then, I expect something around ~8.65m AAV.​

It’ll be interesting to see. If they offer $64 million in guaranteed money for just one 20 goal/50 point season, it may be hard for a 20 year old to turn that kind of financial security down. I think that’s what Hughes will push for but who knows, maybe Slafkovsky wants to bet on himself for another season. I just don’t see his dollar amount going up that drastically even if his numbers get a bit higher for Slaf to take the risk of turning down that kind of deal.

 

[Redux91]

I'm sure that's what Hughes would love, not sure his agent would.

That's tough shit for the agent honestly as it was secretly known during the Caufield negotiations that 7.9 was the cap and that nobody is going to make more than our best player and captain
And then after Caufields contract was done they pretty much Confirmed this was the case
0 chance Slaf is getting 8M, and even Slaf would tell his own agent "you're f***in nuts if you think I'm gonna be walking around this town getting paid more than our #1 guy"

I see Slaf settling for like 7M no problem honestly

People already giving Guhle and Xhekaj like 4-5M already and it's like whoa whoa whoaaaa, bit too early to make these guys multi-millionnaires, gotta prove a bit more sorry

 

[417]

That's tough shit for the agent honestly as it was secretly known during the Caufield negotiations that 7.9 was the cap and that nobody is going to make more than our best player and captain
And then after Caufields contract was done they pretty much Confirmed this was the case
0 chance Slaf is getting 8M, and even Slaf would tell his own agent "you're f***in nuts if you think I'm gonna be walking around this town getting paid more than our #1 guy"

I see Slaf settling for like 7M no problem honestly

People already giving Guhle and Xhekaj like 4-5M already and it's like whoa whoa whoaaaa, bit too early to make these guys multi-millionnaires, gotta prove a bit more sorry

The circumstances around Caufield's negotiations and Slafkovsky aren't the same.

I don't think that applies..

Tough shit for the agent, might also be tough shit for the Habs/Hughes too.

Again, individual players do not set a teams salary cap...league revenues do.

The Montreal Canadiens are not a small market team, so expecting them to operate with an "internal salary cap", is also not realistic.

Nick Suzuki's contract was signed when the cap/league revenues were at a certain level, same with Caufield...

The landscape will have significantly shifted when it's time for Slafkovsky to negotiate his deal.

 

[417]

Not your prototypical 1st OA pick. More like a top 5 pick narrative in a weak draft.

I don't think that's how he and his agent view himself.

What you are talking about is greed. Absolute max earnings with no thinking about the team and the player you are playing with to help you get to this point today. Yes, there are players/agents like this out there. But that's not how you build a contender in a salary cap and usually selfish players demand this kind of attention. I don't believe that is Slaf's type of personality and he doesn't have the same pedigree as MacKinnon to bank on himself in the way you are describing. I think our fan base is a bit guilty of pumping up his good 2nd half too much. It warrants good attention and compliments but not in big way like demanding more than Suzuki and Caufield at this stage. I get what you are saying but he just has not earned that type of hype or even confidence to bank on himself that way. It's been a long 2 years for him so far and he knows the challenges ahead of him.

So it's greed for players to want to maximize their earnings?

So what do you call Owners/GMs, who want to minimize the player's salaries?

Is it not the same?

Sorry, I don't agree that it's greed for either side, it's called business and you don't have to make it personal.

It is not an individual player's job to help his GM navigate the salary cap.

Asking for more than $8M x8 after this season would be greed to me. If not greed, overly confident but let me ask you this? Is he leading the charge and line by himself, or is he sliding into the mix and starting to show signs of producing? With me, it's the later. Of course he has potential but Suzuki and MSL brought it out faster and compliments his growth. I think Slaf and his agent knows this more than anybody else

If Slaf and his agent think he is a 80+ forward regardless of who he plays with, they are too cocky. Don't worry, Hughes will manage this well. Some thought Caufield would ask for $9M AAV... I remember it.

I see it as the Habs taking a bigger leap of faith than Slaf wanting to bank on himself as a 80+ forward. If the Habs approached him with the $7.25M - $7.75M x8 extension and he started to ask for more, I let him finish the 3 year ELC, take him off the Suzuki line and see if he can do the same with Dach next year. I just don't see him burning us where he all of a sudden is a 80+ forward regardless of the usage and who he plays with.

Again, I don't agree with calling greed...it's a business man, for both sides.

All these questions you're asking are kind of irrelevant, whether or not he's leading the charge or a line by himself.

Josh Norris makes 8M a year, does he lead a line by himself?

The market will dictate whatever salary Slafkovsky signs whether it's a short bridge or a long term deal.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think that's how he and his agent view himself.

So it's greed for players to want to maximize their earnings?

So what do you call Owners/GMs, who want to minimize the player's salaries?

Is it not the same?

Sorry, I don't agree that it's greed for either side, it's called business and you don't have to make it personal.

It is not an individual player's job to help his GM navigate the salary cap.

Again, I don't agree with calling greed...it's a business man, for both sides.

What I am saying is 8x $7.75M is maximizing his earnings. Why? Because he is not a top line asset who can lead on his own like others who have bet on themselves.

I understand your maximize earnings narrative but they apply to players each of their own. Slaf is not a slam dunk 80+ future forward. He had a good 2nd half with Suzuki. Chill.

The same reasoning was said to me with Caufield. "He's going to ask for $9M+ after he had a good 2nd half with MSL"

 

[Habs Halifax]

That's tough shit for the agent honestly as it was secretly known during the Caufield negotiations that 7.9 was the cap and that nobody is going to make more than our best player and captain
And then after Caufields contract was done they pretty much Confirmed this was the case
0 chance Slaf is getting 8M, and even Slaf would tell his own agent "you're f***in nuts if you think I'm gonna be walking around this town getting paid more than our #1 guy"

I see Slaf settling for like 7M no problem honestly

People already giving Guhle and Xhekaj like 4-5M already and it's like whoa whoa whoaaaa, bit too early to make these guys multi-millionnaires, gotta prove a bit more sorry

We see it the same. Slaf had a good 2nd half playing with Suzuki. The thought that some think he should make more than Suzuki after this 2 seasons is reaching. Slaf has shown some potential but with Suzuki and MSL coaching. Slaf knows this and more than $8M AAV is pumping up too much.

Habs are the ones that would be reaching with this 8 year deal. Pretty sure Slav and his agent would be open to 8x $7M - $7.75M range.

Now if we get Celebrini, that's a different story. He's a prototypical 1st OA pick and he has the chance to leap frog Suzuki in AAV. For as much as I value him, Slaf in this draft would not be a top 5 pick.

 

[417]

What I am saying is 8x $7.75M is maximizing his earnings. Why? Because he is not a top line asset who can lead on his own like others who have bet on themselves.

Neither is Josh Norris, yet he signed a 7.9M/yr deal coming off ELC.

Robert Thomas, who is a guy who drives play one would argue, after his first 2 NHL seasons had 75pts in 136 games.

Slafkovsky currently has 60pts in 121 games played.

Robert Thomas signed a contract extension that pays him 8.125M annually.

Again, the market will dictate his salary on a long term deal, not Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield or whether or not he "leads his line" or any of that kind of subjective analysis about his worth to the team.

I understand your maximize earnings narrative but they apply to players each of their own. Slaf is not a slam dunk 80+ future forward. He had a good 2nd half with Suzuki. Chill.

The same reasoning was said to me with Caufield. "He's going to ask for $9M+ after he had a good 2nd half with MSL"

Most players who sign long term deals coming off ELC aren't slam dunk 80+ future forwards or 70pt+ Dmen either.

It's an extension based mostly on the expectations that the player will get there at some point eventually.

 

[Tyson]

Angle I would take is we believe in you like Suzuki and Caufield and we would like to pay you the same. It would be greedy to ask more than Suzuki and Caufield and I don't think Slaf is that type. He knows our system well and how we spend a lot of time and energy to get him in the best development situation as possible.

Lets play the future forecast game... Where does Slaf max out at? 60-80 pts and a power game added?

Based on what we saw if he tops out at 60 points I will be very disappointed.

 

[417]

We see it the same. Slaf had a good 2nd half playing with Suzuki. The thought that some think he should make more than Suzuki after this 2 seasons is reaching. Slaf has shown some potential but with Suzuki and MSL coaching. Slaf knows this and more than $8M AAV is pumping up too much.

Habs are the ones that would be reaching with this 8 year deal. Pretty sure Slav and his agent would be open to 8x $7M - $7.75M range.

Now if we get Celebrini, that's a different story. He's a prototypical 1st OA pick and he has the chance to leap frog Suzuki in AAV. For as much as I value him, Slaf in this draft would not be a top 5 pick.

Not sure if you're referring to me, but I never said he "should" make more than Suzuki...to me, I don't really care to qualify it that way.

If he and his agent are smart, they either sign a short-term bridge deal this summer...or wait until next summer to negotiate a long term deal after betting on himself for the upcoming season.

If he continues on the trajectory he was on in the 2nd half of this season, than Suzuki's salary will be the floor of what he could command next summer.

If the Habs are smart, and they believe in the player like I think they do, they're trying to sign him to a long term deal this summer because than they can reasonably use the Suzuki contract as a ceiling per se.

All this stuff you're talking about "prototypical 1st OA pick", is really irrelevant in contract negotiations. There's comparables out there, there's a market, that's what drives salaries.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Neither is Josh Norris, yet he signed a 7.9M/yr deal coming off ELC.

Robert Thomas, who is a guy who drives play one would argue, after his first 2 NHL seasons had 75pts in 136 games.

Slafkovsky currently has 60pts in 121 games played.

Robert Thomas signed a contract extension that pays him 8.125M annually.

Again, the market will dictate his salary on a long term deal, not Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield or whether or not he "leads his line" or any of that kind of subjective analysis about his worth to the team.

Most players who sign long term deals coming off ELC aren't slam dunk 80+ future forwards or 70pt+ Dmen either.

It's an extension based mostly on the expectations that the player will get there at some point eventually.

Norris finished his ELC and had 35 goals with 55 pts in 66 games
Thomas finished his ELC and had 77 pts with 20 goals in 72 games.

They both finished their ELC and had very good seasons and still got paid around $8M. According to your calculations, Caufield should have got $9M+. 26 goals with 36 pts in 46 games.

Talk to me when Slaf puts up Norris and Thomas numbers next year. Also, can you come up with comparisons who are wingers and have not finished their ELC when the signed the next one?

 

[417]

Norris finished his ELC and had 35 goals with 55 pts in 66 games
Thomas finished his ELC and had 77 pts with 20 goals in 72 games.

They both finished their ELC and had very good seasons and still got paid around $8M. According to your calculations, Caufield should have got $9M+. 26 goals with 36 pts in 46 games.

Talk to me when Slaf puts up Norris and Thomas numbers next year. Also, can you come up with comparisons who are wingers and have not finished their ELC when the signed the next one?

Josh Norris had 35 goals and 55pts at 22 years old..

But the thing is, when he was Slafkovsky's age, he was playing in the NCAA. Josh Norris best NHL campaign saw him top out at 55pts, again at 22 years old. Slafkovsky is 19 years old and coming off a 50pt season.....

Thomas signed a bridge deal coming off ELC (2 years 5.6M) and at that point had just concluded his 3rd NHL season (had 12pts in 33 games in the shortened season).

At this point in Slafkovsky's career, he's SIGNIFICANTLY ahead of both of those players right now and this is what you need to capture when you're negotiation for the LONG TERM, you have to use projections and right now, based purely on those projections, Slafkovsky is trending higher than they were at the time they signed.

I mean, sure, I can talk to you when Slafkovsky puts up Norris and Thomas numbers next year...but you might not like what that might cost at that point lol

 

[Redux91]

The circumstances around Caufield's negotiations and Slafkovsky aren't the same.

I don't think that applies..

Tough shit for the agent, might also be tough shit for the Habs/Hughes too.

Again, individual players do not set a teams salary cap...league revenues do.

The Montreal Canadiens are not a small market team, so expecting them to operate with an "internal salary cap", is also not realistic.

Nick Suzuki's contract was signed when the cap/league revenues were at a certain level, same with Caufield...

The landscape will have significantly shifted when it's time for Slafkovsky to negotiate his deal.

No trust me I don't have the mindset of 'that Suzuki cap is the cap forever' I just mean it as it's definitely a little 'hack' HuGo know they can use for a few years, they 'used it' with CC and I believe they will use it juuuuust one more time when it comes to Slaf
Who is obviously a team first guy and clearly reveres Nick for who he is at the moment

This is also why I don't see an 8 year deal for Slaf, as you said it's different for him
I see a 4-5 year 7M deal
And after that, depending on what level of stardom he has hopefully reached
Then he will get 8+Mill yes, only logical

 

[417]

No trust me I don't have the mindset of 'that Suzuki cap is the cap forever' I just mean it as it's definitely a little 'hack' HuGo know they can use for a few years, they 'used it' with CC and I believe they will use it juuuuust one more time when it comes to Slaf
Who is obviously a team first guy and clearly reveres Nick for who he is at the moment

Yeah I feel you...I just think Suzuki and Caufield signed their deals in a flat cap.

Today, we know that the cap is risings. We know where it's supposed to be in 2-3 years.

So that has to be factored in.

This is also why I don't see an 8 year deal for Slaf, as you said it's different for him
I see a 4-5 year 7M deal
And after that, depending on what level of stardom he has hopefully reached
Then he will get 8+Mill yes, only logical

I think it makes total sense for both sides to sign a bridge deal to be honest...gives Slafkovsky a bit more time to establish his value and increase his earnings (assuming he continues his trajectory) and it gives the Habs a bit more time to determine where he fits on the salary scale.

Either way, for me, this is all positive.