Player Discussion The Slaf Thread - Parabolic Growth Edition

[417]

We see it the same. Slaf had a good 2nd half playing with Suzuki. The thought that some think he should make more than Suzuki after this 2 seasons is reaching. Slaf has shown some potential but with Suzuki and MSL coaching. Slaf knows this and more than $8M AAV is pumping up too much.

Habs are the ones that would be reaching with this 8 year deal. Pretty sure Slav and his agent would be open to 8x $7M - $7.75M range.

Now if we get Celebrini, that's a different story. He's a prototypical 1st OA pick and he has the chance to leap frog Suzuki in AAV. For as much as I value him, Slaf in this draft would not be a top 5 pick.

Not sure if you're referring to me, but I never said he "should" make more than Suzuki...to me, I don't really care to qualify it that way.

If he and his agent are smart, they either sign a short-term bridge deal this summer...or wait until next summer to negotiate a long term deal after betting on himself for the upcoming season.

If he continues on the trajectory he was on in the 2nd half of this season, than Suzuki's salary will be the floor of what he could command next summer.

If the Habs are smart, and they believe in the player like I think they do, they're trying to sign him to a long term deal this summer because than they can reasonably use the Suzuki contract as a ceiling per se.

All this stuff you're talking about "prototypical 1st OA pick", is really irrelevant in contract negotiations. There's comparables out there, there's a market, that's what drives salaries.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Neither is Josh Norris, yet he signed a 7.9M/yr deal coming off ELC.

Robert Thomas, who is a guy who drives play one would argue, after his first 2 NHL seasons had 75pts in 136 games.

Slafkovsky currently has 60pts in 121 games played.

Robert Thomas signed a contract extension that pays him 8.125M annually.

Again, the market will dictate his salary on a long term deal, not Nick Suzuki or Cole Caufield or whether or not he "leads his line" or any of that kind of subjective analysis about his worth to the team.

Most players who sign long term deals coming off ELC aren't slam dunk 80+ future forwards or 70pt+ Dmen either.

It's an extension based mostly on the expectations that the player will get there at some point eventually.

Norris finished his ELC and had 35 goals with 55 pts in 66 games
Thomas finished his ELC and had 77 pts with 20 goals in 72 games.

They both finished their ELC and had very good seasons and still got paid around $8M. According to your calculations, Caufield should have got $9M+. 26 goals with 36 pts in 46 games.

Talk to me when Slaf puts up Norris and Thomas numbers next year. Also, can you come up with comparisons who are wingers and have not finished their ELC when the signed the next one?

 

[417]

Norris finished his ELC and had 35 goals with 55 pts in 66 games
Thomas finished his ELC and had 77 pts with 20 goals in 72 games.

They both finished their ELC and had very good seasons and still got paid around $8M. According to your calculations, Caufield should have got $9M+. 26 goals with 36 pts in 46 games.

Talk to me when Slaf puts up Norris and Thomas numbers next year. Also, can you come up with comparisons who are wingers and have not finished their ELC when the signed the next one?

Josh Norris had 35 goals and 55pts at 22 years old..

But the thing is, when he was Slafkovsky's age, he was playing in the NCAA. Josh Norris best NHL campaign saw him top out at 55pts, again at 22 years old. Slafkovsky is 19 years old and coming off a 50pt season.....

Thomas signed a bridge deal coming off ELC (2 years 5.6M) and at that point had just concluded his 3rd NHL season (had 12pts in 33 games in the shortened season).

At this point in Slafkovsky's career, he's SIGNIFICANTLY ahead of both of those players right now and this is what you need to capture when you're negotiation for the LONG TERM, you have to use projections and right now, based purely on those projections, Slafkovsky is trending higher than they were at the time they signed.

I mean, sure, I can talk to you when Slafkovsky puts up Norris and Thomas numbers next year...but you might not like what that might cost at that point lol

 

[Redux91]

The circumstances around Caufield's negotiations and Slafkovsky aren't the same.

I don't think that applies..

Tough shit for the agent, might also be tough shit for the Habs/Hughes too.

Again, individual players do not set a teams salary cap...league revenues do.

The Montreal Canadiens are not a small market team, so expecting them to operate with an "internal salary cap", is also not realistic.

Nick Suzuki's contract was signed when the cap/league revenues were at a certain level, same with Caufield...

The landscape will have significantly shifted when it's time for Slafkovsky to negotiate his deal.

No trust me I don't have the mindset of 'that Suzuki cap is the cap forever' I just mean it as it's definitely a little 'hack' HuGo know they can use for a few years, they 'used it' with CC and I believe they will use it juuuuust one more time when it comes to Slaf
Who is obviously a team first guy and clearly reveres Nick for who he is at the moment

This is also why I don't see an 8 year deal for Slaf, as you said it's different for him
I see a 4-5 year 7M deal
And after that, depending on what level of stardom he has hopefully reached
Then he will get 8+Mill yes, only logical

 

[417]

No trust me I don't have the mindset of 'that Suzuki cap is the cap forever' I just mean it as it's definitely a little 'hack' HuGo know they can use for a few years, they 'used it' with CC and I believe they will use it juuuuust one more time when it comes to Slaf
Who is obviously a team first guy and clearly reveres Nick for who he is at the moment

Yeah I feel you...I just think Suzuki and Caufield signed their deals in a flat cap.

Today, we know that the cap is risings. We know where it's supposed to be in 2-3 years.

So that has to be factored in.

This is also why I don't see an 8 year deal for Slaf, as you said it's different for him
I see a 4-5 year 7M deal
And after that, depending on what level of stardom he has hopefully reached
Then he will get 8+Mill yes, only logical

I think it makes total sense for both sides to sign a bridge deal to be honest...gives Slafkovsky a bit more time to establish his value and increase his earnings (assuming he continues his trajectory) and it gives the Habs a bit more time to determine where he fits on the salary scale.

Either way, for me, this is all positive.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Josh Norris had 35 goals and 55pts at 22 years old. When he was Slafkovsky's age, he was playing in the NCAA.

Thomas signed a bridge deal coming off ELC (2 years 5.6M) and at that point had just concluded his 3rd NHL season (had 12pts in 33 games in the shortened season).

At this point in Slafkovsky's career, he's SIGNIFICANTLY ahead of both of those players right now.

He's only ahead because he started earlier. That doesn't mean he is a 80+ forward ever! You have to ask yourself how he got that good 2nd half. A lot of it is MSL coaching and him playing with Suzuki for the most of it. He needed a lot of help to get that 2nd half.

His pedigree is not as high as you are trying to explain. That's the difference in our debate. If he declines a 8x $7M - $7.75M extension, I let him play out his last ELC season and play him with Dach. See if he can do it again without Suzuki.

The bet on yourself narrative would apply to someone like B Tkachuk more than Slaf IMO. Slaf's confidence is still fragile IMO.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Based on what we saw if he tops out at 60 points I will be very disappointed.

It's too early to know. I would say this past season is his base. The max point is guess work. I would like to see what he can do without Suzuki as the next test. Suzuki does make others look better. Not saying Slaf sucks without him but Slaf has not earned any discusion where he is paid north of $8M. If he wants to bet on himself, I let him and play him with Dach to see what the results are. Habs have every right to do this.

I still have what Bob M said on my mind. None project to be top line studs but maybe one might reach it. Most project into good 2nd tier assets. In order for me to believe he is a 80+ forward, he has to show more than what he did this past season. Good production at his age but usage and opportunity was there.

 

[Hins77]

Yeah I feel you...I just think Suzuki and Caufield signed their deals in a flat cap.

Today, we know that the cap is risings. We know where it's supposed to be in 2-3 years.

So that has to be factored in.

I think it makes total sense for both sides to sign a bridge deal to be honest...gives Slafkovsky a bit more time to establish his value and increase his earnings (assuming he continues his trajectory) and it gives the Habs a bit more time to determine where he fits on the salary scale.

Either way, for me, this is all positive.

Bridge deal is not always bad. I mean. You could sign him 2 years. So 21 until 23 years old. And at 23, sign him for 8 years. It will cover the prime of his career. You will renegotiate at 31 years old instead of 29 years like Calgary did with Huberdeau…

 

[417]

He's only ahead because he started earlier.

Well exactly lol seems like an argue in favor of him, not against him IMO>

That doesn't mean he is a 80+ forward ever! You have to ask yourself how he got that good 2nd half. A lot of it is MSL coaching and him playing with Suzuki for the most of it. He needed a lot of help to get that 2nd half.

Just like Suzuki needed a lot of help to achieve career highs in goals and points this year. No one does it alone.

His pedigree is not as high as you are trying to explain. That's the difference in our debate. If he declines a 8x $7M - $7.75M extension, I let him play out his last ELC season and play him with Dach. See if he can do it again without Suzuki.

Pedigree really has nothing to do with it, that's what i'm arguing. That's not what sets the market lol, sorry don't mean to be repetitive or even argumentative here, but you're including a subjective element in contract discussions. It has no place there, it's cold hard numbers and projections.

The fact you think Slafkovsky was not a "traditional 1st overall" is really irrelevant.

Also, it's kind of odd that you would intentionally place a guy you picked 1st overall in a less advantageous situations just to spite him for declining a contract offer.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Well exactly lol seems like an argue in favor of him, not against him IMO>

Just like Suzuki needed a lot of help to achieve career highs in goals and points this year. No one does it alone.

Pedigree really has nothing to do with it, that's what i'm arguing. That's not what sets the market lol, sorry don't mean to be repetitive or even argumentative here, but you're including a subjective element in contract discussions. It has no place there, it's cold hard numbers and projections.

The fact you think Slafkovsky was not a "traditional 1st overall" is really irrelevant.

Also, it's kind of odd that you would intentionally place a guy you picked 1st overall in a less advantageous situations just to spite him for declining a contract offer.

Book mark it. Time will tell

 

[417]

Bridge deal is not always bad. I mean. You could sign him 2 years. So 21 until 23 years old. And at 23, sign him for 8 years. It will cover the prime of his career. You will renegotiate at 31 years old instead of 29 years like Calgary did with Huberdeau…

Absolutely agreed...it's all positive IMO. The fact this is even a debate is exactly what you want.

The Habs aren't in any contractual mess right now, bridge deal or long term deal, as long as the player continues to progress and establishes himself as a player this team can build around, the rest will work itself out.

We're not the Montreal Canadiens bookkeepers, Let them worry about that lol

 

[Hins77]

Absolutely agreed...it's all positive IMO. The fact this is even a debate is exactly what you want.

The Habs aren't in any contractual mess right now, bridge deal or long term deal, as long as the player continues to progress and establishes himself as a player this team can build around, the rest will work itself out.

We're not the Montreal Canadiens bookkeepers, Let them worry about that lol

I don’t want Montreal to be the next senstors or buffalo sabres, giving 8 years, max money to everybody and still to be in the basement.

 

[417]

Book mark it. Time will tell

What does this even mean?

Book what? and time will tell what? lol...seems like you're coping out of the discussion and I don't really know why. It's really not that complicated or controversial.

There are tons of examples of players who didn' have "pedigree" who ended up signing massive long term contracts. I just randomly selected 2 for you because of how generic their names were lol.

Pedigree matters before and at the draft...the second you're drafted it doesn't matter anymore. Unless you're a prestige player like McDavid or Ovechkin or Crosby. Those are exceptions though and I don't think anyone, neither him, his agent or the Montreal Canadiens, are under the impression he belongs in that category.

I don’t want Montreal to be the next senstors or buffalo sabres, giving 8 years, max money to everybody and still to be in the basement.

Sure no one wants that but if you look at what has brough the Sabres and Sens to the point they're at right now, there's a lot more to it than the fact they handed out contract extensions to players like candy.

 

[Habs Halifax]

What does this even mean?

Book what? and time will tell what? lol...seems like you're coping out of the discussion and I don't really know why. It's really not that complicated or controversial.

There are tons of examples of players who didn' have "pedigree" who ended up signing massive long term contracts. I just randomly selected 2 for you because of how generic their names were lol.

Pedigree matters before and at the draft...the second you're drafted it doesn't matter anymore. Unless you're a prestige player like McDavid or Ovechkin or Crosby. Those are exceptions though and I don't think anyone, neither him, his agent or the Montreal Canadiens, are under the impression he belongs in that category.


Sure no one wants that but if you look at what has brough the Sabres and Sens to the point they're at right now, there's a lot more to it than the fact they handed out contract extensions to players like candy.

Bookmark the discussion of what was said and lets compare to what actually happens.

 

[417]

Bookmark the discussion of what was said and lets compare to what actually happens.

But we don't have to wait there's tons of evidence available...just look at the history of players who didn't have "pedigree" who ended up signing lucrative long-term contracts.

Did Nick Suzuki have "pedigree" before he signed his contract with the Habs?

 

[Habs Halifax]

But we don't have too...just look at the history of players who didn't have "pedigree" who ended up signing lucrative long-term contracts.

You don't have too but I will

 

[JoelWarlord]

I think we're being a little bit precious about this Suzuki deal stuff. Suzuki is a great player but he is not prime Stamkos or Bergeron, and he signed under an 81.5M salary cap while the cap will be 92M or higher (and continuing to rise) by the time a new Slafkovsky contract kicks in. It's going to be a bit of a soft ceiling and apply downward pressure on contracts for a bit but I wouldn't count on Suzuki's deal being a hard ceiling with the cap beginning to rise again. By October 2025 the salary cap is going to be roughly 10.5 million higher than when Suzuki signed in December 2021, just not realistic to expect every player to peg their earnings to what Suzuki could get with October 2021 financials.

Hockey players can be team first at the expense of their own finances so it wouldn't really surprise me if he decides not to rock the boat and just accepts an 8x7.75, but would it really be that surprising if he says he wants the Brady Tkachuk/Robert Thomas contract? I just don't really care to nickle and dime over 500k if that's what it takes to get 8 years of term to lock in the long-term cap savings with a cap increase.

What I am saying is 8x $7.75M is maximizing his earnings. Why? Because he is not a top line asset who can lead on his own like others who have bet on themselves.

I understand your maximize earnings narrative but they apply to players each of their own. Slaf is not a slam dunk 80+ future forward. He had a good 2nd half with Suzuki. Chill.

If you believe this then why do you even want to give him 7.75? He's not a sniper like Caufield, so if you don't think he's a driver the number for an RFA fresh off an ELC should be like...6 maximum.

 

[417]

You don't have too but I will

Is there a reason why you choose to ignore available information?

I mean, just look at Nick Suzuki if you want lol what "pedigree" did he have to sign a long contract paying him the most money we've ever handed out to a skater?

He wasn't a 1st overall pick, wasn't a 80+ forward...but they paid him because they projected that he's a player this franchise wants to build around.

Not sure how that's different for Slafkovsky if they believe he's also a piece to build around.

 

[CHfan1]

Angle I would take is we believe in you like Suzuki and Caufield and we would like to pay you the same. It would be greedy to ask more than Suzuki and Caufield and I don't think Slaf is that type. He knows our system well and how we spend a lot of time and energy to get him in the best development situation as possible.

Lets play the future forecast game... Where does Slaf max out at? 60-80 pts and a power game added?

Based off the second half last season where he scored 16 goals and had 35 points in 41 games, I think Slafkovsky can be a ppg player. It wouldn’t surprise me if he can get to 35-40 goals, 45-50 assists, 80-90 points.

 

[badfish]

Some of the votes from McKenzie's list I found interesting:

Demidov had 5 second place votes, 2 third place votes, 1 fourth place vote, and 1 fifth place vote.
Lindstrom had 2 third place votes, 2 fourth place votes, 2 fifth place votes.
Sennecke had one top-5 vote and two top-10 votes.

Edit: I got lost on HF

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think we're being a little bit precious about this Suzuki deal stuff. Suzuki is a great player but he is not prime Stamkos or Bergeron, and he signed under an 81.5M salary cap while the cap will be 92M or higher (and continuing to rise) by the time a new Slafkovsky contract kicks in. It's going to be a bit of a soft ceiling and apply downward pressure on contracts for a bit but I wouldn't count on Suzuki's deal being a hard ceiling with the cap beginning to rise again. By October 2025 the salary cap is going to be roughly 10.5 million higher than when Suzuki signed in December 2021, just not realistic to expect every player to peg their earnings to what Suzuki could get with October 2021 financials.

Hockey players can be team first at the expense of their own finances so it wouldn't really surprise me if he decides not to rock the boat and just accepts an 8x7.75, but would it really be that surprising if he says he wants the Brady Tkachuk/Robert Thomas contract? I just don't really care to nickle and dime over 500k if that's what it takes to get 8 years of term to lock in the long-term cap savings with a cap increase.


If you believe this then why do you even want to give him 7.75? He's not a sniper like Caufield, so if you don't think he's a driver the number for an RFA fresh off an ELC should be like...6 maximum.

Because I feel like if you bridge him at a time when cap grows to $92M+, the cost for a top 6 winger goes from $7M to $9M in a heartbeat. So a 60 pts forward today vs a 60 pts in 3 years time grows by $2M+. Pay the top 6F rate now is what I say. The timing of contracts compared to cap growth is massive. If we were still in Covid Flat cap years, I'd have no problem with bridge contract and letting him play out his last ELC year. However, we are at a critical point of cap increases to come.

It's deeper than just his point totals for me. A lot of players in the NHL are paid too much because of them having good seasons at the right time in terms of cap future forecasts.

at $7.75M for 8 years, I think he becomes overpaid in the first 3 years (years we can manage) but underpaid in the last 5. The last 5 would be massive in terms of retaining our talent that will have contracts due. It's a strategy within the cap.

It's more of a calculation of what a top 6 winger cost in a future salary cap for me than if Slaf will be a 80+ winger. My safe range for Slaf is 50-70 pts range and I see it going up/down season/season.

Based off the second half last season where he scored 16 goals and had 35 points in 41 games, I think Slafkovsky can be a ppg player. It wouldn’t surprise me if he can get to 35-40 goals, 45-50 assists, 80-90 points.

So he passes Suzuki or does Suzuki go to 80-90 pts range? Personally, I don't see Slaf becoming more valuable than Suzuki. Do you see B Tkachuk in Slaf in terms of where he maxes out at?

 

[LaP]

I don’t want Montreal to be the next senstors or buffalo sabres, giving 8 years, max money to everybody and still to be in the basement.

And what do you want to do? Give money to Gomez and Cammalleri? If Slaf can be secured long term for under 8 millions it should be done. Having Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf at 21 millions something would be good. The cap will be over 90 millions in around 4 years so that's 23% of the cap spent on 20% of your top 9 forwards / top 6 defensmen which is very good considering they are all solid top 6 players in the making.

 

[CHfan1]

So he passes Suzuki or does Suzuki go to 80-90 pts range? Personally, I don't see Slaf becoming more valuable than Suzuki. Do you see B Tkachuk in Slaf in terms of where he maxes out at?

I think Suzuki gets to the 80-90 point range as well. What will help them both is if Caufield can improve his shooting %. In 2022-23 he had a 16.5 shooting %, last season it dropped to 8.9. Even if he gets back to his career average of 11.7% that’s another 9 goals based on his shot total of 314 from last season.

Tkachuk’s current best season, points wise, is 83. I think Slafkovsky exceeds that.

 

[LaP]

I think Suzuki gets to the 80-90 point range as well. What will help them both is if Caufield can improve his shooting %. In 2022-23 he had a 16.5 shooting %, last season it dropped to 8.9. Even if he gets back to his career average of 11.7% that’s another 9 goals based on his shot total of 314 from last season.

Tkachuk’s current best season, points wise, is 83. I think Slafkovsky exceeds that.

Even if he doesn't exceed that a big 70 points winger with a long prime in front of him at 7ish millions is not a problem at all it's actually a good contract, If you're convinced Slaf can be a 70 points player you sign him long term imo before it's too late and cost you too much.

 

[CHfan1]

Even if he doesn't exceed that a big 70 points winger with a long prime in front of him at 7ish millions is not a problem at all it's actually a good contract, If you're convinced Slaf can be a 70 points player you sign him long term imo before it's too late and cost you too much.

I definitely agree with this. I agree with the philosophy to lock up top RFA players long term through their prime years. More often than not those contracts age well as opposed to signing UFA’s to long term contracts.