Weren't you saying that you only had Kakko 4th on your list as of like 3 weeks ago? What made you change your mind so suddenly?
Self-preservation!!!
Seriously though, some reasons are:
1. I still think that Turcotte is blocked by Hughes pretty badly on the US team, and if it wasn't for Hughes, there would be -- a lot -- more talk on Turcotte going higher up the drafts. Looking at like the 5 nations in Russia when Hughes was injured, Turcotte was the clear No 1 center for a dominant US team.
So I think Turcotte is underrated. I think there is a really good shot that he will be a strong top center for someone down the road. Like a Matt Duchene with his head screwed on not only right, but with a very good attitude and 2-way game.
2. Podkolzin has not had the most impressive U18. But I still also think that he is underrated. Many put him in that Russian wunder-kid with issues category, and not totally without reason, but he is also a very strong and hard working, stubborn and determined, young player. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he could become a Tarasenko type of player, or even slight better. He will be a physical force in the near future. He can really rip the puck. He is so hard to get a hold of and can carry it in traffic. He is tremendously ambitious.
3. I think Kakko kind of can become an Eric Staal type of performer. A winner. A leader. But I am not sold on him like becoming Malkin II, although he certainly has a lot of potential.
4. So against the background of 1-3, choosing between a Duchene type with a very good 2-way game, someone that can become a Tarasenko type and someone that can become a Eric Staal type of performer, I think there is an argument to be made for the more speedy/flashier types in today's game.
5. One thing that has changed for me is the probability for these kids of full-filling their potential. I've not seen Kakko since the U20. He had a good U20 WJC, topped by the gold winning goal, but he didn't blow that tournament away. He impressed me a lot more yesterday when I saw him again again Sweden. I don't change my opinion on his potential, but it did change my opinion of the likelihood of him getting there.
Even if I am not ready to write off vPod like some are, certainly him but also Turcotte has not improved my picture of them. Turcotte is where he was and vPod has fallen a little.
6. I do think that it is
important to remember that in -- almost all drafts -- the distance between 2 and certain players going 3-10 ends up being smaller than it was on the draft day.
-Brady T certainly gained ground on Svech this season.
-Elias Petterson has leapfrogged Nolan Patrick.
-McAvoy and Matthew Tkachuk is closer to Laine than they were on draft day.
-Marner and Raantanen must be seen as being ahead of Eichel at this point. Or? At least closer to him than on draft-day.
-Is Sam Reinhart even top 5 anymore?
Early developed players often get drafted very high, and kids behind them catch up.
There is, de facto, a big risk in uncritically going with the 'best player' on draft day, without really thinking through where this kids might end up being in a 5-10 year range.
But a counter argument to that is that even if you know that of a bunch of horses in a race, its more likely than not that the top horse won't win, it doesn't make sense to never put your many on the top horse. But the threshold for me to joggle with these names aren't as high as it is for some.
