The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[Fjordy]

Dahlin - Jokiharju
Byrum - Samuelsson
Bryson - Clifton
Gilbert

UPL, Reimers

I’m not outlining this to trash Power or Quinn. Just to show that shifting from raw talent acquisition to purposely building a particular type of roster, and the timing of the switch, matters.

And this defense looks very dubious. With Sammy injures and the weak Jokiharju. Even now I would choose Power over Beniers.

 

[Der Jaeger]

And this defense looks very dubious. With Sammy injures and the weak Jokiharju. Even now I would choose Power over Beniers.

True. It’s a matter of what you want over something else.

I’d rather have those centers and figure out how to support Dahlin over the current roster. Fixing my hypothetical roster doesn’t require elite defenders. Just some good 3/4/5 types.

 

[Fjordy]

True. It’s a matter of what you want over something else.

I’d rather have those centers and figure out how to support Dahlin over the current roster. Fixing my hypothetical roster doesn’t require elite defenders. Just some good 3/4/5 types.

Finding 1D is much more difficult than 2C/3C.

 

[Dreakon13]

Mitts is softer than butter, they won't work in the playoffs.

Cozens is only 23, plenty of time to get 'better'

I dunno, maybe the fancy stats and his time in Colorado so far says different, but by the time he left he struck me as a hard skater and a bit of a dog on the puck. Maybe the bar was just really low to stand out on this team last year lol.

I'm just not totally sure what "better" looks like for Cozens. Not saying he doesn't have upside, but I'm not sure what that trajectory is. Other than maybe like Krebs, I feel like I have a handle on what most other players on this team do well... but I couldn't tell you what's Cozens bread and butter.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Finding 1D is much more difficult than 2C/3C.

Why would a 1D be needed? Dahlin would be the 1D and Byrum the 2D.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I dunno, maybe the fancy stats and his time in Colorado so far says different, but by the time he left he struck me as a hard skater and a bit of a dog on the puck. Maybe the bar was just really low to stand out on this team last year lol.

I'm just not totally sure what "better" looks like for Cozens. Not saying he doesn't have upside, but I'm not sure what that trajectory is. Other than maybe like Krebs, I feel like I have a handle on what most other players on this team do well... but I couldn't tell you what's Cozens bread and butter.

Mittelstadt wasn't soft at all, unless somebody wants a mid-six C that hits. A guy that isn't physical, but uses his hands to be strong on the puck when in possession and in board battles, that backchecks hard, creates TOs with his hands vs physical separation of player form puck, just isn't "soft" to me. If that's the definition, then we just traded for a really soft 3C in McLeod. In fact, one could argue that because McLeod doesn't have the same board battle success while still not being physical (just due to lesser hands and stick skills), that he's more soft than Mitts.

That doesn't necessarily mean I think Cozens should have been traded though. KA should have kept everyone and improved the D-corps some other way. Cozens could've developed into a better mid-six C than Mitts, regardless of whether a top 9 or top-6/bottom-6 set-up was used. If not, he could easily stay at 3C or even move to wing. Flexibility that is gone for now.

 

[Dreakon13]

That doesn't necessarily mean I think Cozens should have been traded though.

FWIW, I wasn't saying I wanted either traded. But if someone had to go, I'd feel more confident in Mitts upside compared to Cozens at the moment. I'm fine with Cozens surprising me though.

 

[joshjull]

If you're gonna overpay which we did....then do it right and overpay for the superior player.

Also your cough is disingenuous, the reasoning for Cirelli being potentially available was because Tampa needed money to keep Stamkos a lifer (and hell keep Sergachev at that). Oh and potentially replenish a barren pipeline of prospects. I give them credit for the pivot they figured out and not committing to Stamkos longish term, but the logic was there...you can't look back after the dust has settled and sneeze or cough at the idea....

There is nothing disingenuous about @Chainshot pointing out Cirelli is Tampa’s 2C, not their 3C.

He never made sense as a 3C target for that reason. He’s not a 3C and Tampa wouldn’t be looking to move him.

From Tampa’s roster building perspective, it would make no sense for them to create a hole at 2C to keep a top 6 winger.

Tampa already set the table for their offseason when they acquired McDonagh in late May. Once it was clear Stamkos wasnt signing whatever deal they had offered. They traded Sergachev, acquired Geuntzels rights and extended him with a 7y @ 9mil per deal. That was in a span of 3 days 6/29 to 7/1.

Moving on from Cirelli wasn’t in their plans.

To echo what some above me has said Adams gets no marks of being unable to reasonably obtain a viable 3c when he's drafted literally everything but THAT. If you have a glaring whole in your roster or pipeline thats when you draft for it especially with later picks. Obviously with your 1st BPA is a viable choice but we've pissed away later round picks like it was nothing if we miss, and NOW WE ARE PISSING AWAY HIGHER ROUND PICKS like its nothing because we suck so much and draft so high and people are flippant about it.

You draft as much talent as possible for two reasons

They turn into a roster player. Or they can be used to acquire a roster player.

The trade was a perfectly normal use of the assets we have. You do realize every team in the NHL will make deals like this. even ones far more successful than we are.

 

[joshjull]

Mitts is softer than butter, they won't work in the playoffs.

Cozens is only 23, plenty of time to get 'better'

Huh?

Not being physical doesn’t make one soft. He also had 9pts in 11 playoff games. I think it worked.

EDIT: I’m not picking Mitts over Cozens though. I wanted to keep all 3 centers.

 

[joshjull]

Who else is excited about the Krebs at wing experiment?

Can I get a… Hell Yeah!!!!

…………………….


Hello?

Anybody?

 

[DapperCam]

Mitts is softer than butter, they won't work in the playoffs.

Cozens is only 23, plenty of time to get 'better'

Mitts was our best player along the boards. He wasn’t softer than butter unless you are talking about big hits or fighting, which I don’t care about.

 

[michaelsaas]

simply keep mittelstadt and you have your 3C in cozens

I am sure the board would have responded thoughtfully and maturely to rolling out the same three centers from last season again.

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

FWIW, I wasn't saying I wanted either traded. But if someone had to go, I'd feel more confident in Mitts upside compared to Cozens at the moment. I'm fine with Cozens surprising me though.

Do we think mitts still had “ upside”? I’m pretty sure that the upside he has was what he reached last year… And that’s pretty much his peak

 

[KrakenSabresMike]

There is nothing disingenuous about @Chainshot pointing out Cirelli is Tampa’s 2C, not their 3C.

He never made sense as a 3C target for that reason. He’s not a 3C and Tampa wouldn’t be looking to move him.

From Tampa’s roster building perspective, it would make no sense for them to create a hole at 2C to keep a top 6 winger.

Tampa already set the table for their offseason when they acquired McDonagh in late May. Once it was clear Stamkos wasnt signing whatever deal they had offered. They traded Sergachev, acquired Geuntzels rights and extended him with a 7y @ 9mil per deal. That was in a span of 3 days 6/29 to 7/1.

Moving on from Cirelli wasn’t in their plans.


You draft as much talent as possible for two reasons

They turn into a roster player. Or they can be used to acquire a roster player.

The trade was a perfectly normal use of the assets we have. You do realize every team in the NHL will make deals like this. even ones far more successful than we are.

Also the not drafting a 3c argument is a weird one to make after this year - they likely have two options in the system… When they drafted just this year, which is the most likely person to be perfect for that role ( Konsta) or ostlund as a 2c/3c with cozens taking the other role.

Also, the NHL draft takes years to get somebody so I’m not sure how drafting someone fixes the problem now. But they did address it with two number one draft picks in the last three years.

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

Mitts was our best player along the boards. He wasn’t softer than butter unless you are talking about big hits or fighting, which I don’t care about.

Was there an announcement or is this speculation?

I would hope there is a competition at trading camp and the spots have not been awarded

 

[Irie]

Mitts was our best player along the boards. He wasn’t softer than butter unless you are talking about big hits or fighting, which I don’t care about.

I thought it was more a comparison between Mitts and Cozens than characterizing Mitts overall, as it was directly quoting "moving Cozens instead of Mitts". Mitts wasn't soft, per se, but there is zero edge to his game, and the Sabres top six is one of the softer top sixes in the league. Cozens at 23 is way more willing to push back, stand up for teammates, and bring a bit of physicality than Mitts likely ever will, so in that regard, while it may have been a bit of hyperbole, there still was some truth in the sentiment.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I am sure the board would have responded thoughtfully and maturely to rolling out the same three centers from last season again.

We're rolling out the same two Cs that struggled mightily last season, and there isn't much fuss about it yet.

 

[Fjordy]

Why would a 1D be needed? Dahlin would be the 1D and Byrum the 2D.

The more 1D the better. Byram has a history of concussions, Sammy is constantly injured, Jokiharju is bad and not a top 4D. This is a dubious of a defense. I'd easily pick Power over Beniers, period.

 

[Dreakon13]

Do we think mitts still had “ upside”? I’m pretty sure that the upside he has was what he reached last year… And that’s pretty much his peak

I guess that's a fair question. I think he's a guy who takes a little while but always seems to find his game at every level. If the last year or so was him finding that game or peaking... then "upside" in this case would've been seeing that player getting big minutes consistently, and not just when Thompson is injured or both top 6 centers are slumping.

 

[GameMisconduct]

I thought it was more a comparison between Mitts and Cozens than characterizing Mitts overall, as it was directly quoting "moving Cozens instead of Mitts". Mitts wasn't soft, per se, but there is zero edge to his game, and the Sabres top six is one of the softer top sixes in the league. Cozens at 23 is way more willing to push back, stand up for teammates, and bring a bit of physicality than Mitts likely ever will, so in that regard, while it may have been a bit of hyperbole, there still was some truth in the sentiment.

Yeah, I also 'liked' the post with the Mitts/Cozens comparison by @BUCKSHOT, but more are as testament to the difference in their games and what they offer, and my resulting strong preference for Cozens for this team in that regard, especially in terms of what I would prefer the Sabres to build around/emphasize.

Mitts is absolutely an effective player, but he doesn't offer as much in some areas I value: speed, initiation, and match-up ability, especially that last one. Colorado has more plentiful options in those areas and a proven track record of success that buffalo doesn't have thus both players individual strengths have differnt relative values for each team

In Buffalo, there aren't/haven't been enough high talent players that provide the above attributes. I'm encouraged by the fact that we'll have a coach with actual nhl-level tactical acumen for the first time in ages and that we seem to have an awareness of what we've been lacking and an identity in the changing nature of the team which reflects those characteristics. Hopefully, this allows these elements to also develop as much by synergy and strategy than via indivdual player attributes. But individually, Cozens aligns much more with where they need to build, and so is significantly more valuable to Buffalo. I think Ruff's discussion of Cozens echoes that.

I also feel that Cozens has gotten seriously undervalued in the discourse over time. This is, I think, partially because he had some uneveness in his game last year after clear seasons of elevation, and partially because I think Casey gets shined up a bit in comparison now that he's gone in a trade a lot of folks didn't love (again, to be clear Mitts deserves props for what he accomplished). I think in a clear-eyed comparison there are pretty obvious differences in what they bring and their potential.

Also, I want to quote the instructive comps in the Cozens thread by @Satanphonehome

Dylan Cozens scored 18 goals and 47 points.
Casey Mittelstadt scored 18 goals and 57 points.

Their Corsi % was virtually identical (51.3 to 51.1)
Xgoals% was Mittelstadt 51.5 to Cozens 49.5

Cozens had middling 50.7% Dzone starts to Mittelstadt's easy 44.5%

Mitts had 187 shot attempts to Cozens 367
Cozens blocked 28 shots and threw 108 hits. Mitts was 23 and 14

Primary assists:
Mitts 19
Cozens 22

Penalities drawn:
Cozens +6
Mitts -7

Cozens played 125 minutes SH and 167 on the PP
Mitts played 7 minutes SH and 190 on the PP

Cozens is in the 85 percentile for top skating speed and 90th for bursts
Mittelstadt is "below 50th" in both categories

This ^^^ is comparing what everyone considers a bad year for Dylan Cozens to what most would consider Casey Mittelstadt's best year

Again, this is more about the relative qualities/approaches I see in the two players than an attempt to slight Mitts. I liked and appreciated Casey while he was here, and especially how he grew as a player despite not being put in a particularly great development situation (thanks Botts/Kreuger/whoever--honestly the accretion of bad decisions sort of blurs together for me).

We've also already seen what a Cozens motivated to prove himself can do. He earned the workhorse moniker for a reason that shouldn't be forgotten, despite the unevenness (insert devlopment isn't linear quote here).

Given their differences as players, potential to develop, and the composition of the team, if it comes down to one over the other, I take Cozens every time. You can absolutely argue that we would be better having them both, but losing Cozens would have been much more detrimental than losing Mitts

 

[Dingo44]

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Sometimes the baseline ideas in hockey are more important than just acquiring talent in terms of roster construction. Sometimes it’s reversed. Adams was in talent acquisition mode until this off-season, and now he’s switched. I think that both are needed but the time to switch is important.

Imagine Adams decided that he was building a defense and center out type organization in 2020 right after the season ends. He encourages his scouts to comes off Marco Rossi and instead take Anton Lindell in 2020. He defies draft experts and takes Matt Beniers instead of Owen Power in 2021. Both those two players are 200 foot centers in the classic Bruins mold.

Let’s take a look at the team, assuming no other or different moves are made:

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch
Benson - Beniers - Cozens
McLeod - Lundell - Greenway
Malenstyn - Lafferty - Zucker
NAK, Krebs

Dahlin - Jokiharju
Byrum - Samuelsson
Bryson - Clifton
Gilbert

UPL, Reimers

I’m not outlining this to trash Power or Quinn. Just to show that shifting from raw talent acquisition to purposely building a particular type of roster, and the timing of the switch, matters.

Otherwise known as the “what would Detroit do” drafting strategy.

I love their first round choices in the yzerman era.

 

[BUCKSHOT]

Can we get thru training camp before we argue about this ?

 

[Dingo44]

Can we get thru training camp before we argue about this ?

I keep hoping to get a discussion going other than the same old 3 - 4 arguments ad nauseum.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

I keep hoping to get a discussion going other than the same old 3 - 4 arguments ad nauseum.

Let’s discuss why Dennis Vial didn’t play for the 1999-00 Sabres