The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[StrompTroller]

how--explain?

irrelevant of lines

Skinner-Tage-Tuch
Peterka-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-xxx-Benson
xxx-xxx-Rousek

youth Krebs, Kulich, Rosen, and others
likely in Rochester first half of next year Savoie, Ostlund,




You want Levi to get alot of game action which he would playing in Rochester with an occational call up for injuries or playing a game during a 3 in 4 or 4 in 6 stretch.

As ive said before ...its possible Byram was part 1 of a multipart trade that had to wait till the offseason.

Im not brining in people to force them to keep younger players in the AHL when these players are likely more skilled than who they bring in.

If they make trades its more in the short term variety

my concenr is the salkry cap structure.

The ideal format is do it as 4/7 for 14F 3/7 for the 7D/2G
or bottom 8 players on the roster 4F, 2D, 1G, 1 F/D/G make up about $11-$12MM of cap and the top 9F/5D/1G make up the rest of the roster with 50% for 9F and 5D/SG get 40%

Samulesson, Power, Dhalin, Clifton, Byram, signed UPL make up around $35M

If next years cap is 87.7
11.7M for bottom 8 that leaves $76M for 9/5/1 so 40% is 30.4 which Buffalo exceeds
7D/2G= 3/7 of 87.7 is 37.6M Buffalo fills out there roster on D/G with RyJo, a $1M back u G, and a $1M vet that put them at around 37.9M which is slightly above.

You can be slightly above that level for a few seasons do to youth elsewhere or expiring contacts., Buffalo doesn't look to have much in terms of expiring contracts with Byram getting a raise in 2025 and Johnson getting a bridge. in 26 Clifton ends and is replaced with an ELC.


-------------------

Ive seen enough people say in acquiring say Cirelli that the cap will go up making the contract not a big deal---thats not how it works.

Look at other sports. With a rising cap, the money is going to your star players and you go with youth and it squezes out the salariess of your middle of the road. You used to see some no name player have a 15+ yr career in baseball. not anymore. those players are forced out for the younger players who have higher potentuial return on salary.

Buffalo cant afford a high priced long term F making $6M or more--especially a 3C. They need something cheaper on the short term or they need to trade something with salary ir a player like Peterka who will be getting a raise in 25/26

Im gonna need more on the weird baseball analogy because as an avid baseball fan im not seeing that at all. Like...at all.

Not to mention a lack of a hard salary cap (yes there is a luxury tax). Not to mention most players...especially pitchers don't even really break in until their age 23-27 season.

This seems very apples to oranges to me.
As a braves fan id use Charlie morton getting another 20 million dollar extension and guys like Eddie Rosario getting more than most nhl players despite not hitting his body weight with the nats this year. How are you comparing really anything here?

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Im gonna need more on the weird baseball analogy because as an avid baseball fan im not seeing that at all. Like...at all.

Not to mention a lack of a hard salary cap (yes there is a luxury tax). Not to mention most players...especially pitchers don't even really break in until their age 23-27 season.

This seems very apples to oranges to me.
As a braves fan id use Charlie morton getting another 20 million dollar extension and guys like Eddie Rosario getting more than most nhl players despite not hitting his body weight with the nats this year. How are you comparing really anything here?

Baseball is riff with teams manipulating time of service to keep salaries and lengthen arbitration years

 

[StrompTroller]

Baseball is riff with teams manipulating time of service to keep salaries and lengthen arbitration years

I agree there are many discrepancies here which is why I find it an odd comparison. For reference look up Joey gallos stats versus compensation lol. How is it possible to compare the 2 sports?!

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

It appears one team knows how to draft and the other cant pick players outside the top 5 OA draft picks.

The reason Mittlestadt was traded is because they dont want to pay a 3C $6M+
Colorado is 8/4/2 with $16M to spend on 5F and 3D/ Thats on avg $2M per player or $1M for 6 players and $10M for 2 players.

Yes, Colorado's drafting record is pretty bad overall.

 

[Jim Bob]

Top 20 5 on 5 scorer over last three years...and buys Ostlund and Krebs another year to mature. He'd help us

I like the player. I just do not want vets on one year deals. By the time they adjust to the new team, they have one foot out the door. No thanks.

 

[Jim Bob]

I seem fixated on not doing dumb deals.

I'm all for acquiring Cirelli.

I've probably been the loudest proponent on trading the pick going back to last season.

It's just bad value.. like outside of an overpayment

So what is an even trade for Cirelli?

My guess is that what you think is fair value for Cirelli will be viewed as a massive underpayment by most neutral observers.

I'm with you, mostly. But it's too high a pick to trade for somebody who plays in the bottom six. And top six impact players are going to take more than 11OA, if any are available at all.

Honestly, I would love it if they traded down with Chicago. It looks like the Hawks want to trade up. Maybe 11OA for 18OA and Toronto's 2025 1st, or Connor Murphy if you think he fits and is an improvement over Joker. There's a realistic chance that other GMs reach and a good player may fall to 18. Or you have two picks that are each more appropriate in value to trade for a 3C.

Cirelli has played top 6 minutes on multiple Stanley Cup winning teams.

And it would not shock me if he were the C that had the 2nd highest TOI/G if he were on the Sabres next season.

 

[Djp]

Im gonna need more on the weird baseball analogy because as an avid baseball fan im not seeing that at all. Like...at all.

Not to mention a lack of a hard salary cap (yes there is a luxury tax). Not to mention most players...especially pitchers don't even really break in until their age 23-27 season.

This seems very apples to oranges to me.
As a braves fan id use Charlie morton getting another 20 million dollar extension and guys like Eddie Rosario getting more than most nhl players despite not hitting his body weight with the nats this year. How are you comparing really anything here?

This started about 25 yrs ago. You also see it in the NFL.

The stars make the money, then you have the pre UFA players, then the others.

The others move around among teams and Dont make as much.

A team in deciding its do I sign vef X or go with prospect Y.. in the NFL free agency affects how teams draft. In baseball and hockey most draft players wait 4+ yrs so instead its do I go with a Pro ready prospect or do I sign a vet.

In the NFL you have s high roster turnover rate over a 5 yr period.

Hockey isnt therr yet but I see it happening where they sign something special wingerd to long contracts whi li e avg ones itd to free agency then they move on and get replaced. Top 2 C, top 2 D, at you look at keeping long term.

If you look over the years, the avg career start age has gone down.

 

[TehDoak]

how--explain?

irrelevant of lines

Skinner-Tage-Tuch
Peterka-Cozens-Quinn
Greenway-xxx-Benson
xxx-xxx-Rousek

youth Krebs, Kulich, Rosen, and others
likely in Rochester first half of next year Savoie, Ostlund,




You want Levi to get alot of game action which he would playing in Rochester with an occational call up for injuries or playing a game during a 3 in 4 or 4 in 6 stretch.

As ive said before ...its possible Byram was part 1 of a multipart trade that had to wait till the offseason.

Im not brining in people to force them to keep younger players in the AHL when these players are likely more skilled than who they bring in.

If they make trades its more in the short term variety

my concenr is the salkry cap structure.

The ideal format is do it as 4/7 for 14F 3/7 for the 7D/2G
or bottom 8 players on the roster 4F, 2D, 1G, 1 F/D/G make up about $11-$12MM of cap and the top 9F/5D/1G make up the rest of the roster with 50% for 9F and 5D/SG get 40%

Samulesson, Power, Dhalin, Clifton, Byram, signed UPL make up around $35M

If next years cap is 87.7
11.7M for bottom 8 that leaves $76M for 9/5/1 so 40% is 30.4 which Buffalo exceeds
7D/2G= 3/7 of 87.7 is 37.6M Buffalo fills out there roster on D/G with RyJo, a $1M back u G, and a $1M vet that put them at around 37.9M which is slightly above.

You can be slightly above that level for a few seasons do to youth elsewhere or expiring contacts., Buffalo doesn't look to have much in terms of expiring contracts with Byram getting a raise in 2025 and Johnson getting a bridge. in 26 Clifton ends and is replaced with an ELC.


-------------------

Ive seen enough people say in acquiring say Cirelli that the cap will go up making the contract not a big deal---thats not how it works.

Look at other sports. With a rising cap, the money is going to your star players and you go with youth and it squezes out the salariess of your middle of the road. You used to see some no name player have a 15+ yr career in baseball. not anymore. those players are forced out for the younger players who have higher potentuial return on salary.

Buffalo cant afford a high priced long term F making $6M or more--especially a 3C. They need something cheaper on the short term or they need to trade something with salary ir a player like Peterka who will be getting a raise in 25/26

I think there is more flexibility there than you think. Bryam's acquisition makes Samuelsson less important, so that is a contract you can move on from to lower the D cost.

If you really want to affect change to the roster, it starts with buying out skinner. 7.8M saved this year, 5M next year, and ~2.5M in the final year. The three trailing years suck, but not enough to cause major issues. Combine that with the cap going up roughly 3-4M per season during that stretch, it's mostly a nil issue.

If they are keeping Skinner, then doing big things is much harder this year and next. For example, you can add Cirelli this summer, but you can't tweak the top 9 forward group beyond that.

 

[Beerz]

So what is an even trade for Cirelli?

My guess is that what you think is fair value for Cirelli will be viewed as a massive underpayment by most neutral observers.


Cirelli has played top 6 minutes on multiple Stanley Cup winning teams.

And it would not shock me if he were the C that had the 2nd highest TOI/G if he were on the Sabres next season.

Most neutral observers on the main board do not think Cirelli is worth the 11th OA.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I think there is more flexibility there than you think. Bryam's acquisition makes Samuelsson less important, so that is a contract you can move on from to lower the D cost.

If you really want to affect change to the roster, it starts with buying out skinner. 7.8M saved this year, 5M next year, and ~2.5M in the final year. The three trailing years suck, but not enough to cause major issues. Combine that with the cap going up roughly 3-4M per season during that stretch, it's mostly a nil issue.

If they are keeping Skinner, then doing big things is much harder this year and next. For example, you can add Cirelli this summer, but you can't tweak the top 9 forward group beyond that.

Yep. If we keep everyone and acquire Cirelli, we'd have $1M for each of the 4th line wingers, which is no bueno.

Therefore, I don't think they go after anyone nearly as expensive as Cirelli or Joshua, or probably even Trenin.

They have $8M for 3 holes, so that's like $4M for a 3C and $2M for each of 4LW and 4RW. It's going to be an underwhelming group of additions if they insist on keeping Skinner.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Most neutral observers on the main board do not think Cirelli is worth the 11th OA.

Buffalo doesn't have the cap space anyway. And that's for this season. Next season, Quinn, Levi, Peterka, and Byram all need humungous increases after 24/25, so he fits even less next season.

We're not trading for Cirelli.

 

[Jim Bob]

Most neutral observers on the main board do not think Cirelli is worth the 11th OA.

Most of those takes are just looking at Cirelli's counting stats, his cap hit, and the years remaining on the deal based on how they talk about him.

And you still haven't mentioned what a fair trade offer would be.

 

[Beerz]

Most of those takes are just looking at Cirelli's counting stats, his cap hit, and the years remaining on the deal based on how they talk about him.

And you still haven't mentioned what a fair trade offer would be.

Of course that is what they are looking at. His cap along with what he brings to the ice... all those are factors in determining his worth.

Pieces I would have on the table for Cirelli that could be mixed and matched in a variety of ways include Krebs, Joker, Rosen, 2nd Round pick, 3rd Round pick, Komarov, and any other prospect in that range. ( Poltapov, Neuchev, Kisikov, ect)

 

[BFLO]

I feel like we (okay... I) should break out a faceoff thread to talk about their deficiencies and how to address it. Tops would also be more contact overall because I will make a generalization that teams that play a limp style get out hustled on loose pucks so they get fewer winger wins on tied draws. And Buffalo has been very much a non-confrontational team physically under Granato. They might be able to push their team percentages a smidge by having more winger involvement.

I have nothing to back this up but years of anecdotal observation.

True. Also mentioned that teams are interested. It shouldn't be hard to look at that and think they could get something similar for a third of the contract value by getting a guy like AJ Greer or digging out some AHL tweener who they scout out who can skate.




Nashville ran out O'Reilly, Scissons, McCarron (all above 50%), Glass (46%) and Novak (only 42% but just 500 total draws) so they had better options.

My position on faceoffs is still the same. They need their top 2 centers to git gud and not worry too much out of someone who is going to be taking half as many draws as those two guys. And Trenin at 45% (170 draws in 16 games in Colorado, 77 W - 93 L) would be right in the mix of how Buffalo performed (Cozens 45.6% on 1146, Thompson 43.3%! on 859 draws, and Krebs 46.3% on 614 draws). It ain't good but it's what they have done.

Teams good at faceoffs are so because their top centers are good at faceoffs. And until someone can point me at data that it matters at a macro level instead of a micro level, it isn't a game breaker for me to have someone in the mid-40's career. It's having the "Number One Center" be so absolute dogshit at it that is hurting them most.

The difference between the best team (Penguins 54.6%) and the worst (Sabres 45%) at faceoffs is small enough in the NHL in any given season that it's difficult to quantify the value. I think of faceoffs as a small cumulative advantage in the macro sense.

Pittsburgh had the highest face off w% this season and they failed to make the playoffs. There were 4 non-playoff teams in the top 16 in fow% this season. So generally speaking, it's better to good or at least average at faceoffs.

The Sabres have been the worst fow% team from 2011-2024, we also have the worst points % in that time.

Good teams can be bad at faceoffs and bad teams can be good at faceoffs. But generally speaking, good teams tend to be good at everything and bad teams tend to be bad at everything.

Faceoffs are one of those details that maybe add up to like a 1% advantage over the course of a season. But in a league as tight as the NHL a team like Pittsburgh won or went to OT in a few games because of their 1% faceoff advantage and a team like the Sabres lost a few games, or failed to get to OT because of their -1% faceoff disadvantage. Giving your opponents a free 2% advantage is how we end up falling short.

We need to fight and scrap for every miniscule % advantage we can get. We can't afford to keep pretending faceoffs don't matter, just because they only matter a little. We need to at least be average at faceoffs.

And yes, a lot of our faceoff problem hasn't even been on the centers over the years. It's just as much the flaccid play from the wingers and defensemen on loose pucks or tied draws.

 

[Beerz]

Everything about Granato was flaccid. It bled thruout the whole team in all facets of the game.

I imagine what the team would be like if they played like they did in the last home game of the year against Washington...on a consistent level.

We don't need "fighters" but we do need our players to be engaged.. finishing checks, being a tad dirty, getting in scrums. All of that bleeds into the rest of your game..in your forecheck, board battles, winning face off battles.

Engaging.

Hopefully Ruff instills this into Tuch, Thompson, Quinn, Peterka, Cozens ect.

Granato had no interest in it and I think frowned upon it.

 

[OkimLom]

I think there is more flexibility there than you think. Bryam's acquisition makes Samuelsson less important, so that is a contract you can move on from to lower the D cost.

If you really want to affect change to the roster, it starts with buying out skinner. 7.8M saved this year, 5M next year, and ~2.5M in the final year. The three trailing years suck, but not enough to cause major issues. Combine that with the cap going up roughly 3-4M per season during that stretch, it's mostly a nil issue.

If they are keeping Skinner, then doing big things is much harder this year and next. For example, you can add Cirelli this summer, but you can't tweak the top 9 forward group beyond that.

If they decide to move Samuelsson to fit Byram, then they fully deserve the financial mess and headaches that will come with that terrible decision.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

If they decide to move Samuelsson to fit Byram, then they fully deserve the financial mess and headaches that will come with that terrible decision.

Why would they do that when they could just move Joki?

 

[Chainshot]

The difference between the best team (Penguins 54.6%) and the worst (Sabres 45%) at faceoffs is small enough in the NHL in any given season that it's difficult to quantify the value. I think of faceoffs as a small cumulative advantage in the macro sense.

Pittsburgh had the highest face off w% this season and they failed to make the playoffs. There were 4 non-playoff teams in the top 16 in fow% this season. So generally speaking, it's better to good or at least average at faceoffs.

The Sabres have been the worst fow% team from 2011-2024, we also have the worst points % in that time.

Good teams can be bad at faceoffs and bad teams can be good at faceoffs. But generally speaking, good teams tend to be good at everything and bad teams tend to be bad at everything.

Faceoffs are one of those details that maybe add up to like a 1% advantage over the course of a season. But in a league as tight as the NHL a team like Pittsburgh won or went to OT in a few games because of their 1% faceoff advantage and a team like the Sabres lost a few games, or failed to get to OT because of their -1% faceoff disadvantage. Giving your opponents a free 2% advantage is how we end up falling short.

We need to fight and scrap for every miniscule % advantage we can get. We can't afford to keep pretending faceoffs don't matter, just because they only matter a little. We need to at least be average at faceoffs.

And yes, a lot of our faceoff problem hasn't even been on the centers over the years. It's just as much the flaccid play from the wingers and defensemen on loose pucks or tied draws.

The lack of confrontation from the supporting players in all areas of the ice seems to seep into the faceoff dot. Lighting some fire under them to attempt to get more winger wins is a biggy.

And yet, when looking at the best faceoff teams, it remains that their best centers are the keys to being good at this task. If we look at the best faceoff performers based on wins in that timeframe, only a handful in the top 50 (7 of 'em) are sub 50%. The best guys to take those draws went and got good at it - that advantage is not in finding someone who is naturally talented at it since that doesn't measure the value of the player at the rest of the the game (see Cody Eakin) but in turning the most important players on the team into people who are at least a saw-off at it. Thompson in particular should be ashamed by his season at the dot and his career 42.1% win rate. No one serious has a 1 or 2 center getting pushed around to that degree at the dot.

Sure, finding a player who can contribute to being a bit above 50% for that individual will help a smidge on lower lines but unless Thompson and Cozens put in the work AND the staff makes a demand that they buy into about winning the puck off tied draws... this is trying to find an advantage way down the list in terms of priorities.

 

[Chainshot]

Why would they do that when they could just move Joki?

Because Doak doesn't like Samuelsson's contract.

 

[Chainshot]

Everything about Granato was flaccid. It bled thruout the whole team in all facets of the game.

I imagine what the team would be like if they played like they did in the last home game of the year against Washington...on a consistent level.

We don't need "fighters" but we do need our players to be engaged.. finishing checks, being a tad dirty, getting in scrums. All of that bleeds into the rest of your game..in your forecheck, board battles, winning face off battles.

Engaging.

Hopefully Ruff instills this into Tuch, Thompson, Quinn, Peterka, Cozens ect.

Granato had no interest in it and I think frowned upon it.

The Marek comment that he was told that they "skate fast and don't hit" by players on the team. There is no battle and I wonder how a couple years of no demand to win battles is going to impact some of these guys under Ruff, if he'll be able to get them to do some of that on a consistent basis or not.

 

[Jim Bob]

Of course that is what they are looking at. His cap along with what he brings to the ice... all those are factors in determining his worth.

Pieces I would have on the table for Cirelli that could be mixed and matched in a variety of ways include Krebs, Joker, Rosen, 2nd Round pick, 3rd Round pick, Komarov, and any other prospect in that range. ( Poltapov, Neuchev, Kisikov, ect)

Cirelli brings a heck of a lot more to the table than just counting stats.

 

[Beerz]

Cirelli brings a heck of a lot more to the table than just counting stats.

Didn't say he didn't.. tho by the sounds of it .. he is being wildly overblown on this board in what he accomplishes.

 

[Jim Bob]

Didn't say he didn't.. tho by the sounds of it .. he is being wildly overblown on this board in what he accomplishes.

I said others were just looking at his counting stats and you said of course they are.

 

[Beerz]

I said others were just looking at his counting stats and you said of course they are.

I said his cap and what he brings to the ice. That includes his counting stats and defensive work/FO/Leadership. It is the totality of his game.

 

[TehDoak]

Because Doak doesn't like Samuelsson's contract.

If they are going to sign Byram long term, they should absolutely look to move on from Samuelsson.

Find me a team with 5+ year deals with 4 d-men.