The Race for the Calder Trophy

[Obvious Fabertism]

his 2 main partners both have better xGoal rates without him than with him.

on ice goaltending metrics compared to expected metrics very rarely have anything to do with the player. Giving faber all credit for getting better on ice goaltending based on a 1 year sample size is disingenuous.

And he has better xGoal rates without each of them too, so all that says is that the pairings aren’t being utilized optimally.

You can go back to last year and get a fun picture regarding your second paragraph, if you don’t think on ice goaltending tells a story, you should look at Calen Addison in front of these same goaltenders. Gus put up a .933 with Addison being sub .900 on ice.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Faber plays with everyone, that’s what is required from a top pair defenseman. His goalies doing better with him on the ice and his team generating better scoring chances speaks a lot towards the positives he brings.

Friendly reminder that Faber has been stapled to the hip of Jake Middleton all season, who brings these kinds of numbers to the table when he isn’t with Faber.

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Also plays with Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, Boldy for more than half of his time on ice.

Hard to blame the team when he has the worst defensive numbers of any regular forward on said team.

Of the 11 Chcago forwards with 500+ 5v5 mins, Bedard is dead last in GA/60 and 2nd to last in xGA/60:

View attachment 848692

Plays with 3rd/4th liners and against top players on the other team, its no wonder why he gets dominated every shift. Other teams focus on him, hard to do anything with shit linemates.

 

[dgibb10]

And he has better xGoal rates without each of them too, so all that says is that the pairings aren’t being utilized optimally.

You can go back to last year and get a fun picture regarding your second paragraph, if you don’t think on ice goaltending tells a story, you should look at Calen Addison in front of these same goaltenders. Gus put up a .933 with Addison being sub .900 on ice.

No, Faber has a worse xGoals rate without Brodin.

But also even then the comparison is that Faber is better than other RD such as: Mermis, Bogosian, Merrill, Addison.

Middleton did get a 150 minute showing with Spurgeon for the short time he was healthy. In that time they had a 61.5% xGoal rate (top 10 pairing in the league).

Sounds like Addison got pretty unlucky on a small sample size. Again, nothing more volatile than goalie performance. As you should know looking at save%s from last year to this year.

But hmmm, the Minnesota goalies went from 0.920s last year to sub 0.900 when faber got put into the lineup this year. CLEARLY he is making his goalies worse. Or perhaps goalies are just incredibly volatile and you shouldn't be crediting Dmen for the play of the goalies behind them.

Sometimes there are things that the stats can't tell. Patrick Kane for example was always analytically underrated offensively because his cross crease passes weren't valued as highly as they should have been, and this was a trend for many years.

A 1 year sample size of goaltending volatility does not paint a pattern

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Also plays with Kaprizov, Eriksson Ek, Boldy for more than half of his time on ice.

This is not correct, he plays 35.4% of 5v5 time Kaprizov.

 

[Hawkaholic]

This is not correct, he plays 35.4% of 5v5 time Kaprizov.

That's about 34.5% more ice time with legit players than Bedard has.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

No, Faber has a worse xGoals rate without Brodin.

But also even then the comparison is that Faber is better than other RD such as: Mermis, Bogosian, Merrill, Addison.

Middleton did get a 150 minute showing with Spurgeon for the short time he was healthy. In that time they had a 61.5% xGoal rate (top 10 pairing in the league).

Sounds like Addison got pretty unlucky on a small sample size. Again, nothing more volatile than goalie performance. As you should know looking at save%s from last year to this year.

But hmmm, the Minnesota goalies went from 0.920s last year to sub 0.900 when faber got put into the lineup this year. CLEARLY he is making his goalies worse. Or perhaps goalies are just incredibly volatile and you shouldn't be crediting Dmen for the play of the goalies behind them.

Sometimes there are things that the stats can't tell. Patrick Kane for example was always analytically underrated offensively because his cross crease passes weren't valued as highly as they should have been, and this was a trend for many years.

A 1 year sample size of goaltending volatility does not paint a pattern

It’s really just one goalie being worse, and we have direct quotes from Gus talking about his thoughts on the difference between years, his focus (had a baby) and team structure (the depth D and injuries) being the quoted challenges. Faber is still rocking a sub 1.0 PDO so I don’t even know why on ice save percentage being solid would even be some sort of mark against him.

 

[dgibb10]

It’s really just one goalie being worse, and we have direct quotes from Gus talking about his thoughts on the difference between years, his focus (had a baby) and team structure (the depth D and injuries) being the quoted challenges. Faber is still rocking a sub 1.0 PDO so I don’t even know why on ice save percentage being solid would even be some sort of mark against him.

It's not. I don't assign credit to guys based on how goalies play behind them.

YOU were the one who tried to do that by using goals% instead of xGoals%.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

That's about 34.5% more ice time with legit players than Bedard has.

Yes, but the other 65% of the time we see him with as bad or worse players.

None of this says anything at all about how individually proficient either are by the way, these are all extremely situational stats.

It's not. I don't assign credit to guys based on how goalies play behind them.

YOU were the one who tried to do that by using goals% instead of xGoals%.

I watched all but 3 1/3 Wild games this season, I know exactly who contributed to each goal against and have no qualms about posting it in our GDTs. Middleton was brought down heavily from playing with Mermis, who is not an NHL player at all, they had terrible chemistry, but he has still looked awful any time he is not with a top tier line mate. All my post was intending to do is point out that Brock Faber plays most of his minutes with a guy who has the same kind of track record as Bedard’s line mates.

 

[dgibb10]

Yes, but the other 65% of the time we see him with as bad or worse players.

None of this says anything at all about how individually proficient either are by the way, these are all extremely situational stats.

I watched all but 3 1/3 Wild games this season, I know exactly who contributed to each goal against and have no qualms about posting it in our GDTs. Middleton was brought down heavily from playing with Mermis, who is not an NHL player at all, they had terrible chemistry, but he has still looked awful any time he is not with a top tier line mate. All my post was intending to do is point out that Brock Faber plays most of his minutes with a guy who has the same kind of track record as Bedard’s line mates.

And in those minutes when he has not been with a top tier dman like Brodin, Faber has struggled.

 

[VainGretzky]

Hard to blame the team when he has the worst defensive numbers of any regular forward on said team.

Of the 11 Chcago forwards with 500+ 5v5 mins, Bedard is dead last in GA/60 and 2nd to last in xGA/60:

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Your routine has been the same ever since I have been on HB you knock and critique Canadian players and champion American players. Hard to take you seriously when you have a complete bias and agenda. I f Bedard was American and Faber Canadian you would be slamming Faber and pumping up Bedard , It's your history Eichel Gaudreau it's all the same , Hughes brothers as well.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

And in those minutes when he has not been with a top tier dman like Brodin, Faber has struggled.

I strongly disagree with that statement, theres been no point in this entire season where I would say Faber has struggled. He’s been as consistent in his own play as any defenseman I have seen in this league. He’s had stretches of bad results, like any player will in this luck based sport, but at no point has he personally struggled or looked poor at all.

Brodin is having the best year of his career if not for injury, they look great playing together, they each look very good apart. Consider the reasons that a coach would put his two best shutdown together, and when he would have them apart: together against one line teams, apart when they have split threats/need balance. With Faber getting more minutes, you leave Brodin in lesser matchups where you would expect him to perform better.

 

[dgibb10]

I strongly disagree with that statement, theres been no point in this entire season where I would say Faber has struggled. He’s been as consistent in his own play as any defenseman I have seen in this league. He’s had stretches of bad results, like any player will in this luck based sport, but at no point has he personally struggled or looked poor at all.

Brodin is having the best year of his career if not for injury, they look great playing together, they each look very good apart. Consider the reasons that a coach would put his two best shutdown together, and when he would have them apart: together against one line teams, apart when they have split threats/need balance. With Faber getting more minutes, you leave Brodin in lesser matchups where you would expect him to perform better.

Faber doesn't play harder minutes. Also the gap in minutes is just Faber power play time.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

To be fair, Hawks have still let in 10 more goals in Bedards 63GP than the Wild have all season. And Faber is getting better goaltending than Bedard no matter what you think of your goalies.

5 on 5
Bedards goalies have a 0.889sv% when he's on the ice (teammates have a 8.61sh%)
Fabers goalies have a 0.911sv%, when he's on the ice (teammates have a 9.86sh%)

I wonder why, can't be because Faber plays with elite 1st line talent majority of his shifts, while Bedard is stuck with 4th liners every shift.

The cost of the franchise dismantling itself to get him, I guess.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Faber doesn't play harder minutes. Also the gap in minutes is just Faber power play time.

Again, this is all situational and depends on how you interpret harder, Brodin (with JEE) gets McDavid coverage because he defends speed so well, but Brock is out against the top shooting threats. Brodin is literally a top 3 defensive D men in the league and has been for a decade, when the rookie is getting the same kind of deployment and put out there to start OT in front of him, it says a lot.

 

[dgibb10]

Again, this is all situational and depends on how you interpret harder, Brodin (with JEE) gets McDavid coverage because he defends speed so well, but Brock is out against the top shooting threats. Brodin is literally a top 3 defensive D men in the league and has been for a decade, when the rookie is getting the same kind of deployment and put out there to start OT in front of him, it says a lot.

It says a lot about the other RD on Minnesota yes.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

It says a lot about the other RD on Minnesota yes.

Only one D man in OT, and he got the same deployment when Spurgeon was healthy, with two different coaches so…

 

[dgibb10]

Only one D man in OT, and he got the same deployment when Spurgeon was healthy, with two different coaches so…

His ice time and deployment went down to about 22 minutes until brodin got hurt.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

His ice time and deployment went down to about 22 minutes until brodin got hurt.

22 minutes being top ice time still, while still being the guy out there in the final minute. I am sure the goal for next season would be to have him right around that number, with a healthy Spurgeon, who is also a hell of a player and the captain, also being worthy of time.

Faber did get extra opportunities this season due to injuries, but he also is the one that earned those opportunities through his play, we have seen how he played his way into the PP, and even later was switched out for Chisholm, but recently put back on PP1 through continued solid play.

All this to basically just say, there hasn’t been a single game this season where I walked away feeling like things would have been better if Faber played less. Brodin has only had one game where he was bad enough to think that, the rest of the lineup has had an abundance of those.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Get back to me in like three years before I fret about Bedard’s defensive deficiencies. Calder is whatever. Faber can win it but I know Bedard will. Nobody even cares about last year’s Calder Trophy once the next season gets underway. It’s the ultimate “only relevant in the season it’s won” award.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Get back to me in like three years before I fret about Bedard’s defensive deficiencies. Calder is whatever. Faber can win it but I know Bedard will. Nobody even cares about last year’s Calder Trophy once the next season gets underway. It’s the ultimate “only relevant in the season it’s won” award.

Not to mention, journalists typically know f all about hockey anyway. Not sure why they vote on awards, should be done by pro scouts or players.

 

[Panthaz89]

Hard to blame the team when he has the worst defensive numbers of any regular forward on said team.

Of the 11 Chcago forwards with 500+ 5v5 mins, Bedard is dead last in GA/60 and 2nd to last in xGA/60:

View attachment 848692

He plays the most of any forward on the team and is obviously always going to be in every empty net situation which the Blackhawks are normally going to be in more often than most teams because they are garbage.

 

[HF007]

Faber is impressive but 18 is a big difference compared to 21

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He plays the most of any forward on the team and is obviously always going to be in every empty net situation which the Blackhawks are normally going to be in more often than most teams because they are garbage.

Those are 5v5 per 60 numbers, which don't include empty net situations. So both of your points are irrelevant.

 

[Sniperberg]

Hello guys! I just have a question:
This place always tells me that defendermen arent good defendermen if they dont play the defense well like a huge wall. This makes some sense to me.
So, why is it that when you have good offenseman like Bedard everyone are saying he is bad player because he not be good at defenseman?

I though that defenseman role was defense and offensiveman was making the goal and assists. Help?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hello guys! I just have a question:
This place always tells me that defendermen arent good defendermen if they dont play the defense well like a huge wall. This makes some sense to me.
So, why is it that when you have good offenseman like Bedard everyone are saying he is bad player because he not be good at defenseman?

I though that defenseman role was defense and offensiveman was making the goal and assists. Help?

Centers are expected to play both sides of the ice. Defensive play is important for all positions. The idea is to defend as a team.