The Race for the Calder Trophy

[dgibb10]

Luke is a defenceman, I would hope he is better defensively. Not even a knock against Luke as it is really hard to be good defensively in the NHL as a 20 year old. Just calling out that particular poster who has been talking about Bedard’s defence non-stop.

I think luke is better relative to position as well.

My ballot in all honesty is:

1: Bedard
2: Nemec
3: Faber
4: Hughes
5: Carlsson
6. Mintyukov
7: Cooley
8: Rossi
9: Zary
10. Woll

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He's got some skill and doubled his point total from a year ago in the same number of games. I wouldn't oversell it though. Ideally he'd be a skilled guy on a third line and he will be of prime age in a couple of seasons.

He’s really sturdy on his skates and a really decent forechecker; hes still always been way worse than the sum of his parts. He works hard like a coaches son would, but he just isn’t that good. As his 2022-2023 numbers suggest. I would be extremely cautious if I was Kyle Davidson.

Yeah, he's certainly not the type of player who should be playing in the top 6 of a contender. He's limited in a lot of ways, and I would hesitate to make a big commitment to him. His numbers are certainly inflated by playing with Bedard and cheating for offense.

Reminds me a bit of Tomas Tatar, where I could see him having some good regular seasons as a complimentary top 6 guy, but will likely struggle come playoff time.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Gonna be a lot of crying when Bedard wins the Calder in a landslide.

 

[Dr Salt]

Interesting point

https://twitter.com/GregBoysen/status/1777436651490324571

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Interesting point

https://twitter.com/GregBoysen/status/1777436651490324571

No its not lol.

Bedard has 962 5v5 mins
Faber has 1409 5v5 mins

The fact that Bedard has still allowed more goals against at 5v5 is pretty terrible.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Interesting point

https://twitter.com/GregBoysen/status/1777436651490324571

1 more against in 14 fewer games, and that HoF goalie has a sub .900 season going. Kaprizov? Sure.

Faber needed a 50+ point season AND needed to be a defensive dynamo to have a shot. Will likely fall a bit short of both.

 

[ijuka]

People really are wondering why bedard has a lot of minus on a Blackhawks team where he is the only offensive threat?

 

[BlueAzN]

Imagine using +/- for a Calder trophy. Hf boards never ceases to be stupid. It's Faber and AINEC

 

[Minnewildsota]

Interesting point

https://twitter.com/GregBoysen/status/1777436651490324571

Didn't even spell Kirill's name correctly.
And a HoF goalie that's sporting a whopping .899 sv% this season. Real strong argument there.

 

[north21]

Gonna be a lot of crying when Bedard wins the Calder in a landslide.

I think 99.9% of everyone expects Bedard to win by a fair margin.

 

[Voight]

Imagine using +/- for a Calder trophy. Hf boards never ceases to be stupid. It's Faber and AINEC

Weird way to spell Bedard

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

Interesting point

https://twitter.com/GregBoysen/status/1777436651490324571

I think Bedard should win the Calder, but this is not an interesting point. MAF is a future hall of famer, but acting like he’s some elite goaltender propping up Faber is ridiculous. He doesn’t even have a .900 save percentage. If either of MNs goalies were league average they’d comfortably be in a playoff spot.

 

[BagHead]

Gonna be a lot of crying when Bedard wins the Calder in a landslide.

I have a feeling there will be some, on Twitter maybe, but I think most Wild fans expect it, so won't boohoo too much. Now if it goes the other way, it'll be interesting to see the response. Usually responses are louder to the surprise event than the expected. That's not a Blackhawks or Wild fan thing, it's a human thing.

 

[Thallis]

I have a feeling there will be some, on Twitter maybe, but I think most Wild fans expect it, so won't boohoo too much. Now if it goes the other way, it'll be interesting to see the response. Usually responses are louder to the surprise event than the expected. That's not a Blackhawks or Wild fan thing, it's a human thing.

If you seek stuff out on Twitter you can find just about anything. The majority of the hockey world expects it to go to Bedard. There will be crying, but you have to put a magnifying glass over it to consider it a significant portion of hockey fans in any way

 

[BagHead]

If you seek stuff out on Twitter you can find just about anything. The majority of the hockey world expects it to go to Bedard. There will be crying, but you have to put a magnifying glass over it to consider it a significant portion of hockey fans in any way

Exactly, I think that's kind of the danger with any media. If you look for a thing, you'll find multiple examples of that thing. It's easy to gain a bias that way, since you're looking at the specific examples of what you want to find, rather than the whole (which is usually too large to be viewed).

 

[Hawkaholic]

1 more against in 14 fewer games, and that HoF goalie has a sub .900 season going. Kaprizov? Sure.

Faber needed a 50+ point season AND needed to be a defensive dynamo to have a shot. Will likely fall a bit short of both.

To be fair, Hawks have still let in 10 more goals in Bedards 63GP than the Wild have all season. And Faber is getting better goaltending than Bedard no matter what you think of your goalies.

5 on 5
Bedards goalies have a 0.889sv% when he's on the ice (teammates have a 8.61sh%)
Fabers goalies have a 0.911sv%, when he's on the ice (teammates have a 9.86sh%)

I wonder why, can't be because Faber plays with elite 1st line talent majority of his shifts, while Bedard is stuck with 4th liners every shift.

 

[VainGretzky]

No its not lol.

Bedard has 962 5v5 mins
Faber has 1409 5v5 mins

The fact that Bedard has still allowed more goals against at 5v5 is pretty terrible.

Has to do with the team

 

[UrbanImpact]

i havent been following much regarding the Calder. I only measure in horses as well so how many we talking are in this race?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Has to do with the team

Hard to blame the team when he has the worst defensive numbers of any regular forward on said team.

Of the 11 Chcago forwards with 500+ 5v5 mins, Bedard is dead last in GA/60 and 2nd to last in xGA/60:

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

To be fair, Hawks have still let in 10 more goals in Bedards 63GP than the Wild have all season. And Faber is getting better goaltending than Bedard no matter what you think of your goalies.

5 on 5
Bedards goalies have a 0.889sv% when he's on the ice (teammates have a 8.61sh%)
Fabers goalies have a 0.911sv%, when he's on the ice (teammates have a 9.86sh%)

I wonder why, can't be because Faber plays with elite 1st line talent majority of his shifts, while Bedard is stuck with 4th liners every shift.

Faber plays with everyone, that’s what is required from a top pair defenseman. His goalies doing better with him on the ice and his team generating better scoring chances speaks a lot towards the positives he brings.

Friendly reminder that Faber has been stapled to the hip of Jake Middleton all season, who brings these kinds of numbers to the table when he isn’t with Faber.

 

[Thallis]

Has to do with the team

His offensive numbers also do. Because he's essentially the only threat on offense, he is given reigns to cheat as much as he wants, and the pressure to create offensively creates a feedback loop to keep pushing more and more. It's basically the same situation as Karlsson last season in San Jose, but Bedard is also a rookie forward.

 

[dgibb10]

Faber plays with everyone, that’s what is required from a top pair defenseman. His goalies doing better with him on the ice and his team generating better scoring chances speaks a lot towards the positives he brings.

Friendly reminder that Faber has been stapled to the hip of Jake Middleton all season, who brings these kinds of numbers to the table when he isn’t with Faber.

View attachment 848696

Show the xGF% why don't you?

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Show the xGF% why don't you?
View attachment 848703

Here’s 5v5 score adjusted xGF. Still shows the stark contrast.

Reminder, all of these numbers rely on context, Kaprizov being on the ice when Faber isn’t is more likely to occur when the opposing team has weaker players on the ice, like a post PK situation where Faber was killing the penalty. Anyway you slice it, you can go down the list and the only guys that don’t see a positive GF bump with Faber are Kap slightly and JEE massively (65% GF is just absurd and has to be some kind of outlier for scenarios like I described above.)

 

[dgibb10]

View attachment 848707
Here’s 5v5 score adjusted xGF. Still shows the stark contrast.

Reminder, all of these numbers rely on context, Kaprizov being on the ice when Faber isn’t is more likely to occur when the opposing team has weaker players on the ice, like a post PK situation where Faber was killing the penalty. Anyway you slice it, you can go down the list and the only guys that don’t see a positive GF bump with Faber are Kap slightly and JEE massively (65% GF is just absurd and has to be some kind of outlier for scenarios like I described above.)

his 2 main partners both have better xGoal rates without him than with him.

on ice goaltending metrics compared to expected metrics very rarely have anything to do with the player. Giving faber all credit for getting better on ice goaltending based on a 1 year sample size is disingenuous.

 

[Rooch]

Does Cutter win it next season?