The Race for the Calder Trophy

[A1LeafNation]

Bedard and Faber have been up and down.

Kochetkov looks good, carried a 2 injury prone goalie team to the playoffs.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Bedard and Faber have been up and down.

Kochetkov looks good, carried a 2 injury prone goalie team to the playoffs.

When has Faber been down? Been our most consistent D man and JEE is the only other guy you could argue as even close to as consistently good as Faber on the team.

 

[vipera1960]

When has Faber been down? Been our most consistent D man and JEE is the only other guy you could argue as even close to as consistently good as Faber on the team.

Username checks out.


(Not discounting your analysis, but it was too easy)

 

[Rafafouille]

I wish this wasn't anonymous so we could see who the clowns are who didn't vote Bedard first.

Clowns? How are they clowns? Faber is the #1 wild D, 7th in the NHL in ice time in his rookie season and looking phenomenal. It's a coin toss and I'd favor Faber right now.


Edit: 5 points later, maybe not

 

[CBJx614]

7 more games than Bedard and still far back in points. We being serious?



What do you mean by 'on paper'?



Are you his brother or something? What a random choice.

Why are you asking if I'm being serious when my posts literally says I'm joking.

And on paper Chicago has been torn down stripped in an attempt to tank for Bedard(successful) and for this draft. On paper Columbus is a much better team. The roster assembled on paper is a much better team, Columbus had a coaching catastrophe as well as extremely underperforming vets. Columbus just as likely could have been competing for a playoff spot this season with proper coaching and players like Gaudreau, Laine and Werenski playing a disappearing act to start the season.


It's pretty obvious that Bedard is the best rookie, but Voronkov definitely deserves to be in the conversation with the rest.

 

[wetcoast]

Voters are dumb. Bedard missed too many games, should be Faber's to lose.

Ironic that this was posted right after you said this but then again Bedard is riding on that excellent Black hawks offensive juggernaut right?

The voters will make the right choice here as this is the actual wording for the trophy

The Calder Memorial Trophy is an annual award given "to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League."

 

[shakes the clown]

Clowns? How are they clowns? Faber is the #1 wild D, 7th in the NHL in ice time in his rookie season and looking phenomenal. It's a coin toss and I'd favor Faber right now.

they are clowns because only a clown could look at this rookie race and reach any conclusion other than Bedard is the run away leader in the ROY race.

 

[wetcoast]

I think people forget how rare it is for rookies to produce this much.

He is also producing at a PPG clip in the 12 games back since injury and look at his "help"

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

I wish this wasn't anonymous so we could see who the clowns are who didn't vote Bedard first.

The actual voting results for the Calder will be public and that's a good thing.

That being said though I remember in Ichiro Suzuki's rookie year a writer claimed he couldn't vote for him because he wasn't a true rookie and instead put a hometown pitcher first on his ballot and then Ichiro second.

That was before twitter so now some voters probably calculate a hot take vote to drive traffic and clicks.

 

[Rafafouille]

they are clowns because only a clown could look at this rookie race and reach any conclusion other than Bedard is the run away leader in the ROY race.

Nice non argument. Why is that so cut and dry in your mind? Faber has an incredible season.


The fact that Bédard is most likely the next generational player and will have the best career doesn't mean he's necessarily the best rookie this year.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He is also producing at a PPG clip in the 12 games back since injury and look at his "help"

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

It's not like he's lapping his teammates though, especially at ES.

That -15 in those 12 games also stands out. He's been really really not good defensively, especially through the neutral zone. He plays a ton of minutes on a terrible team, so you'd expect a terrible +/-. But even relative to the rest of the team, his numbers are poor. His relative 5v5 possession numbers pale in comparison to that of rookie McDavid:

Bedard
rel CF%: -1.37
rel xG%: -0.52
rel GF%: -1.36

McDavid
rel CF%: +4.54
rel xG%: +8.51
rel GF%: +10.70

He's going to be a tremendous offensive player, he's already a bonafide genuis inside the offensive blue line. But this suggests that, as predicted, he isn't going to be able to drive play like generational players are able to.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

It's not like he's lapping his teammates though, especially at ES.

That -15 in those 12 games also stands out. He's been really really not good defensively, especially through the neutral zone. He plays a ton of minutes on a terrible team, so you'd expect a terrible +/-. But even relative to the rest of the team, his numbers are poor. His relative 5v5 possession numbers pale in comparison to that of rookie McDavid:

Bedard
rel CF%: -1.37
rel xG%: -0.52
rel GF%: -1.36

McDavid
rel CF%: +4.54
rel xG%: +8.51
rel GF%: +10.70

He's going to be a tremendous offensive player, he's already a bonafide genuis inside the offensive blue line. But this suggests that, as predicted, he isn't going to be able to drive play like generational players are able to.

No way I'm going to attempt to compare Bedard with McDavid - but again - teammates make a difference. McDavid is the superior player with vastly superior speed/skating AND VASTLY superior teammates to help him drive the play. Bedard can't beat the defense with his skating but when he does get into the o-zone with the puck on his stick and space to make a play - who is there with him - Foligno/Donato/Kurashev/anyone else - versus Draisitl/RNH/Hyman/Kane? C'mon!

 

[AKL]

Just want to point out that some of McDavid's most common linemates in his rookie year were guys like Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov and Patrick Maroon, which is better than what Bedard has (mostly thanks to Eberle), but not by a whole lot. Certainly not Draisaitl, RNH, Hyman and Kane.

 

[Happyhary9]

Just want to point out that some of McDavid's most common linemates in his rookie year were guys like Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov and Patrick Maroon, which is better than what Bedard has (mostly thanks to Eberle), but not by a whole lot. Certainly not Draisaitl, RNH, Hyman and Kane.

People really try and sell Eberle short on how good he was early in his career (fell off fast though). In the three seasons prior to McDavid, Elberle was the 25th highest scoring forward in the NHL in ppg. He was the 12th highest scoring winger in the NHL over that period at .84 ppg. For comparison over that time that is the same as Daniel Sedin and .01 more then Marion Hossa. Eberle the year prior out scored both Bedards wingers combined. Even Pouliot outscored those guys individually the year.

Now I am not saying Bedard is a better rookie the McDavid. But I absolutely can't think of any rookie ever that was asked to lead a team from day one and had worse support then Bedard does. The Hawks don't have single forward who scored more then 40 points last year. They have zero top 6 guys on the team outside of Bedard. It goes beyond just his linemates as well. Teams don't have to worry about any second scoring line (zero depth) they can throw the kitchen sink at stopping Bedards line. Edmonton had another good scoring line with Hall and Dri, which teams had to accout for as well.

 

[Happyhary9]

Right now the Calder race is literally Bedard as 1A and Faber 1b. No one else really inthe discussion (except for 3rd place). Bedard's injury opened the door for Faber. But I think Bedard will pull away again some in the last 15 games or so.

 

[bossram]

Clowns? How are they clowns? Faber is the #1 wild D, 7th in the NHL in ice time in his rookie season and looking phenomenal. It's a coin toss and I'd favor Faber right now.

It's not a coin toss. Bedard essentially has it locked up, and the odds at sportbooks indicate this.

And I'm speaking as someone who has wagers on Faber for the Calder (from earlier, at much better odds than current, to be fair).

The voters are mostly going to be looking at points. Rightly or wrongly. Faber was going to need to be in the 50 point range to secure the Calder, or at least be very close to make it competitive. He's probably not going to get there. With Bedard coming back and essentially continuing at a point-per-game pace, it'll be a foregone conclusion. Especially if he hits 60 points.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

No way I'm going to attempt to compare Bedard with McDavid - but again - teammates make a difference. McDavid is the superior player with vastly superior speed/skating AND VASTLY superior teammates to help him drive the play. Bedard can't beat the defense with his skating but when he does get into the o-zone with the puck on his stick and space to make a play - who is there with him - Foligno/Donato/Kurashev/anyone else - versus Draisitl/RNH/Hyman/Kane? C'mon!

Teammates certainly make a difference, but even relative to the rest of the Blackhawks (who are terrible), Bedard's possession numbers are poor.

 

[Chelios]

Teammates certainly make a difference, but even relative to the rest of the Blackhawks (who are terrible), Bedard's possession numbers are poor.

Thank god. You got your Bedard alarm back online. Was beginning to worry about you Whiskey.

 

[prongertheman9]

Thank god. You got your Bedard alarm back online. Was beginning to worry about you Whiskey.

He’s had the worst Bedard takes for about 3 years now and keeps doubling down. It is comedy.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Yall gotta be nicer to Whiskey, he's still trying to cope with having to watch Jack Hughes every night instead of Connor Bedard.

Spoiler

/sarcasm, kinda

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Thank god. You got your Bedard alarm back online. Was beginning to worry about you Whiskey.

Sorry you can't accept me posting facts. He's an 18 year old center who is undersized and isn't the fastest guy, is it really a surprise that he's struggling everywhere except the offensive zone? That doesn't take away from the fact that he's already shown elite ability in the offensive zone, dude's a genius with the puck on his stick.

He’s had the worst Bedard takes for about 3 years now and keeps doubling down. It is comedy.

Yeah I was way off on my prediction for him to score 78 points this year. I guess I overestimated how productive he'd be.

I think you might still be butt hurt that I didn't have him in Crosby/McDavid's tier when he was in Regina.

 

[Chelios]

Barring another injury (god forbid), the award is Bedard’s. He was running away with it prior to being injured, and he has been even better since he came back from injury.

 

[SEALBound]

The best part about this chart is Crosby's 110 PIM sticking out like an infected hangnail.

 

[prongertheman9]

Yeah I was way off on my prediction for him to score 78 points this year. I guess I overestimated how productive he'd be.

I think you might still be butt hurt that I didn't have him in Crosby/McDavid's tier when he was in Regina.

You still think he is Jack Hughes tier then?

 

[wetcoast]

People really try and sell Eberle short on how good he was early in his career (fell off fast though). In the three seasons prior to McDavid, Elberle was the 25th highest scoring forward in the NHL in ppg. He was the 12th highest scoring winger in the NHL over that period at .84 ppg. For comparison over that time that is the same as Daniel Sedin and .01 more then Marion Hossa. Eberle the year prior out scored both Bedards wingers combined. Even Pouliot outscored those guys individually the year.

Now I am not saying Bedard is a better rookie the McDavid. But I absolutely can't think of any rookie ever that was asked to lead a team from day one and had worse support then Bedard does. The Hawks don't have single forward who scored more then 40 points last year. They have zero top 6 guys on the team outside of Bedard. It goes beyond just his linemates as well. Teams don't have to worry about any second scoring line (zero depth) they can throw the kitchen sink at stopping Bedards line. Edmonton had another good scoring line with Hall and Dri, which teams had to accout for as well.

Not to mention that Bedard isn't running against McDavid for this year's Calder so I'm not even sure why that was brought up in the first place.

People don't need to go to fancy stats to disect everything either, voters are like msot of us here they look at the counting stats and Bedard's Black Hawk team mates and see how porrly they did offensively when Bedard was out then make a gut call.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You still think he is Jack Hughes tier then?

Yeah I think they are comparable, at least when Hughes is healthy (which unfortunately hasn't been too often). It wouldn't surprise me if Bedard ended up being more productive, but I don't think he'll have the same 3 zone impact.

I still like the Kucherov comparison for Bedard.