Buddy Bizarre
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- Jul 9, 2021
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From ESPN
Record in 2022: 9-8
Point differential in 2022: minus-38
2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 6-5
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: 11th easiest
I'll admit it: I thought last year's column had the Steelers dead to rights. Unimpressed by their 9-7-1 record while being outscored by 55 points in 2021, I suggested that 2022 would be a transitional season with rookie Kenny Pickett taking over as quarterback. I was concerned the Steelers couldn't get any more out of their big three on defense, and when T.J. Watt went down in the opener with a torn pectoral muscle, those concerns felt justified. At their bye, they were 2-6. It felt like a lost season.
Then the universe remembered who stands on the sideline for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin hadn't posted a losing record in 15 seasons as a head coach, and he wasn't about to start now. They split their first two games after the bye and then got white-hot afterward, winning six of their final seven games. They still came up a half-win short of their total from 2021, but they came as close as possible to defying the numbers.
How did Pittsburgh turn things around? It got Watt back, which helped immensely. Its schedule got easier, as six of its seven wins during the second half came against teams with losing records. The only exception was a Week 17 victory over the rival Ravens, who were starting Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the injured Lamar Jackson.
play
0:50
Will Kenny Pickett improve in 2nd season with Steelers?Dan Orlovsky and Jeff Darlington weigh in on Kenny Pickett's potential going into his second season as the Steelers' starting quarterback.
The biggest factor, though, was something that holds concern for the Steelers and another team that isn't on this list. Before the bye, they turned the ball over 14 times in eight games. After the bye? Pickett & Co. yielded five giveaways in nine games, three of which came in a Week 14 loss to the Ravens. They turned the ball over twice across their other eight games in the second half, and unsurprisingly, they won seven of those eight.
It's impossible to count on any team to turn the ball over as infrequently as the Steelers did during that stretch over a full season, but there's something to break down here. I wanted to test this improvement with teams from the past to see if those that improved their giveaway rate so dramatically from one half to the next kept their turnover rate relatively low the following season. There aren't many comps, however.
The few teams that posted similarly drastic improvements in giveaways from one half to the next either were posting astronomical totals in the first half before regressing to league-average in the second half, changed quarterbacks after the season or had veteran quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger. Pickett is a rookie who held the ball before his pass attempts longer than all but three other quarterbacks and posted a below-average sack rate. He had a 4.8% interception rate over his first five starts and an 0.4% rate afterward. Morphing from PJ Walker into peak Aaron Rodgers is a nifty improvement, but I don't see how we can't expect Pittsburgh to turn the ball over more often this season.
What makes this so interesting is the Steelers aren't the only team that rode the turnover roller coaster in the second half to a turnaround. The Lions started 1-6 and turned the ball over 11 times across their first seven games. Then, suddenly, they morphed into something different. Jared Goff & Co. turned the ball over just four times in the ensuing 10 games, winning eight of those 10. Like the Steelers, they committed two of those turnovers in a single loss, to the Bills on Thanksgiving. The Lions just decided overnight to stop turning over the football, which immediately spurred a winning streak.
To be fair, the offense improved aside from strictly protecting the ball. If we eliminate the drives that ended in turnovers altogether, the Steelers jumped from 31st in points per possession before the bye to 11th afterward. Najee Harris hasn't been an efficient back, but Jaylen Warren showed it was possible to look impressive behind a middling offensive line. That line should be better in 2023, with Isaac Seumalo joining from the Eagles and rookie first-rounder Broderick Jones likely to take over at left tackle, although he has looked uneven during the preseason.
I'm more concerned about the defense on paper, which is strange for a Steelers team under Tomlin. Cornerback is suddenly a problem, as Cameron Sutton and Arthur Maulet left in free agency and were replaced by the ex-Vikings duo of Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan. I'm not sure about their fit in a scheme that played man at the sixth-highest rate last season, and it's a lot to ask of rookie second-rounder Joey Porter Jr. to be ready for a big role in Week 1. The last time the Steelers had a rookie cornerback start at least 12 games in a season was 1987. Even given the presence of Minkah Fitzpatrick, they probably won't lead the league in interception rate again.
Record in 2022: 9-8
Point differential in 2022: minus-38
2022 record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 6-5
Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN's FPI: 11th easiest
I'll admit it: I thought last year's column had the Steelers dead to rights. Unimpressed by their 9-7-1 record while being outscored by 55 points in 2021, I suggested that 2022 would be a transitional season with rookie Kenny Pickett taking over as quarterback. I was concerned the Steelers couldn't get any more out of their big three on defense, and when T.J. Watt went down in the opener with a torn pectoral muscle, those concerns felt justified. At their bye, they were 2-6. It felt like a lost season.
Then the universe remembered who stands on the sideline for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin hadn't posted a losing record in 15 seasons as a head coach, and he wasn't about to start now. They split their first two games after the bye and then got white-hot afterward, winning six of their final seven games. They still came up a half-win short of their total from 2021, but they came as close as possible to defying the numbers.
How did Pittsburgh turn things around? It got Watt back, which helped immensely. Its schedule got easier, as six of its seven wins during the second half came against teams with losing records. The only exception was a Week 17 victory over the rival Ravens, who were starting Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the injured Lamar Jackson.
play
0:50
Will Kenny Pickett improve in 2nd season with Steelers?Dan Orlovsky and Jeff Darlington weigh in on Kenny Pickett's potential going into his second season as the Steelers' starting quarterback.
The biggest factor, though, was something that holds concern for the Steelers and another team that isn't on this list. Before the bye, they turned the ball over 14 times in eight games. After the bye? Pickett & Co. yielded five giveaways in nine games, three of which came in a Week 14 loss to the Ravens. They turned the ball over twice across their other eight games in the second half, and unsurprisingly, they won seven of those eight.
It's impossible to count on any team to turn the ball over as infrequently as the Steelers did during that stretch over a full season, but there's something to break down here. I wanted to test this improvement with teams from the past to see if those that improved their giveaway rate so dramatically from one half to the next kept their turnover rate relatively low the following season. There aren't many comps, however.
The few teams that posted similarly drastic improvements in giveaways from one half to the next either were posting astronomical totals in the first half before regressing to league-average in the second half, changed quarterbacks after the season or had veteran quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger. Pickett is a rookie who held the ball before his pass attempts longer than all but three other quarterbacks and posted a below-average sack rate. He had a 4.8% interception rate over his first five starts and an 0.4% rate afterward. Morphing from PJ Walker into peak Aaron Rodgers is a nifty improvement, but I don't see how we can't expect Pittsburgh to turn the ball over more often this season.
What makes this so interesting is the Steelers aren't the only team that rode the turnover roller coaster in the second half to a turnaround. The Lions started 1-6 and turned the ball over 11 times across their first seven games. Then, suddenly, they morphed into something different. Jared Goff & Co. turned the ball over just four times in the ensuing 10 games, winning eight of those 10. Like the Steelers, they committed two of those turnovers in a single loss, to the Bills on Thanksgiving. The Lions just decided overnight to stop turning over the football, which immediately spurred a winning streak.
To be fair, the offense improved aside from strictly protecting the ball. If we eliminate the drives that ended in turnovers altogether, the Steelers jumped from 31st in points per possession before the bye to 11th afterward. Najee Harris hasn't been an efficient back, but Jaylen Warren showed it was possible to look impressive behind a middling offensive line. That line should be better in 2023, with Isaac Seumalo joining from the Eagles and rookie first-rounder Broderick Jones likely to take over at left tackle, although he has looked uneven during the preseason.
I'm more concerned about the defense on paper, which is strange for a Steelers team under Tomlin. Cornerback is suddenly a problem, as Cameron Sutton and Arthur Maulet left in free agency and were replaced by the ex-Vikings duo of Patrick Peterson and Chandon Sullivan. I'm not sure about their fit in a scheme that played man at the sixth-highest rate last season, and it's a lot to ask of rookie second-rounder Joey Porter Jr. to be ready for a big role in Week 1. The last time the Steelers had a rookie cornerback start at least 12 games in a season was 1987. Even given the presence of Minkah Fitzpatrick, they probably won't lead the league in interception rate again.
