OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Whats a Running Back? Does it make the Steel Steeler?

[JTG]

The balance between Harris and Warren should be around 50/50, IMO. Run the hot hand. This situation can so easily sort itself out. They need to know what they have in Warren with Najee's option year coming.

Najee needs to go to the LBell school of being a RB. If Najee had that kind of patience, he could be a 5 yard a carry RB with how big and strong he is. Fact is - Najee is entirely too heavy. He's unnecessarily heavy. Bell even said as much. Najee needs to be around 220-225 at most. Not 240.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

The balance between Harris and Warren should be around 50/50, IMO. Run the hot hand. This situation can so easily sort itself out. They need to know what they have in Warren with Najee's option year coming.

Najee needs to go to the LBell school of being a RB. If Najee had that kind of patience, he could be a 5 yard a carry RB with how big and strong he is. Fact is - Najee is entirely too heavy. He's unnecessarily heavy. Bell even said as much. Najee needs to be around 220-225 at most. Not 240.

Harris gave an odd interview when asked about Warren’s run:

Steelers RB Najee Harris not ready to praise teammate Jaylen Warren

There is certainly some tension coming from Najee Harris about the Steelers running back situation.

sports.yahoo.com

Hopefully there isn’t animosity building there, but I’m sure he’s not thrilled.

 

[Flying Dego]

Harris gave an odd interview when asked about Warren’s run:

Steelers RB Najee Harris not ready to praise teammate Jaylen Warren

There is certainly some tension coming from Najee Harris about the Steelers running back situation.

sports.yahoo.com

Hopefully there isn’t animosity building there, but I’m sure he’s not thrilled.

I'd think it's a combination of things not really directed at Warren.

-Najee has built up a large Fandom, to be honest he's the most popular player I've seen that's done so little...not to be overly harsh but we all can see his lack of vision and stats don't paint him as anything more than an average back to Date.

-With him voicing about RB salary he's probably torn thinking about Warren playing so well proves the GMs right. RBs are completely replaceable save a select few.

-Warren balling out will put the nail in his future contracts coffin to sum it up. That's probably a big factor in his frustration. He's not the clear best at what he does.

 

[PensandCaps]

Harris gave an odd interview when asked about Warren’s run:

Steelers RB Najee Harris not ready to praise teammate Jaylen Warren

There is certainly some tension coming from Najee Harris about the Steelers running back situation.

sports.yahoo.com

Hopefully there isn’t animosity building there, but I’m sure he’s not thrilled.

Well maybe he should stop playing like garbage if he doesn't want to lose his carries.

He looked semi better in the 2nd half but for the most part he was terrible last season.

No more excuses this year for why he can't average 4.0+

 

[pistolpete11]

I get what you mean, but you get what I mean too right? There's often and often.

There's a version of use both guys often that makes us a very run-heavy team. It's what the team have talked about wanting. That's why I'm asking about what exactly is meant by often.

Where I'm coming from is that for most of the summer, I brought into the idea of the balanced offence. Good way to take the pressure off of the shoulders of a young guy. But now... at the risk of overreacting to 3 series, Pickett's looking less like a guy who needs sheltering and more like one of the org's stronger assets. The receiving weapons room looks stronger than the running weapons room too.

So I'm wondering just how balanced we want them to be. I know that's going to depend on situations, and in an ideal world there's plenty of games where Pickett throws them to victory and Harris and Warren mop things up... but at the same time, we know what's mean in terms of bias on 2 and 6 in a close game.

And yeah, I know what your answer is because you've said it. But I want to make the why of the question clearer.

We discussed this a few months back, but I'm at 25-ish times. Once you start getting into the 30's with QB's around Pickett's level, it's usually a sign your team is losing:

OT: - The Pittsburgher Thread: Super Bowl? Thats like a giant pot of chips or popcorn right?

Pickett can lead men. I think that was so evident when Mitch came out and Kenny came in. Kenny has a set on him, and it comes through with the way he plays and the way guys play for him. It's kind of where the similarity between Cousins and Pickett splits for me, for the better. I find...

forums.hfboards.com

A couple of drives in the preseason isn't enough to change my expectations. As others have said in the past, though, I want them to cut him loose on the types of passes he's throwing.


-------------------

Maybe it's a good thing if Harris is pissed?

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Well maybe he should stop playing like garbage if he doesn't want to lose his carries.

He looked semi better in the 2nd half but for the most part he was terrible last season.

No more excuses this year for why he can't average 4.0+

His injury was pretty brutal, so I’ll give him some leeway there.

But this has to be a make or break year.

His stats can be misleading because he’s being fed the ball so often.

Just because he posts a third 1000k season, doesn’t mean he is playing like a true feature back.

I like him and hope he does well, just being brutally honest about the situation.

I'd think it's a combination of things not really directed at Warren.

-Najee has built up a large Fandom, to be honest he's the most popular player I've seen that's done so little...not to be overly harsh but we all can see his lack of vision and stats don't paint him as anything more than an average back to Date.

-With him voicing about RB salary he's probably torn thinking about Warren playing so well proves the GMs right. RBs are completely replaceable save a select few.

-Warren balling out will put the nail in his future contracts coffin to sum it up. That's probably a big factor in his frustration. He's not the clear best at what he does.

I get why he’s angry, but it’s the NFL, the ultimate dawg eat dawg.

Gotta distinguish yourself and show why you were a first rounder.

 

[Peat]

Interesting snippet from a fantasy football article on The Athletic:

"It’s possible that the Steelers are going to slightly reduce the number of scrimmage plays they give Najee Harris, as Jaylen Warren outpaced Harris in GBYPA (8.0 versus 7.4) and yards per reception (7.6 versus 5.6). Even if this happens, Harris may net out ahead of his 2022 pace due to a potential GBR improvement, as he was tied for 40th in GBR received at 34.9 percent, while Pittsburgh placed 12th in team GBR at 42.4 percent."

That's Good Blocking Rate, and Good Blocking Yards Per Attempt (i.e. if the block is good, how many yards are they picking up).

Not surprised to learn that Harris got significantly worse blocking. Bad blocking no less. 34.9 would be 30th if it was a team here. It's what my eye test was telling me. It's a shame the article didn't give us how much of it Warren got, and how both did on plays where they got not-good blocking.

And it's a shame they don't dig deeper into what's happening on the plays they both get good blocking or a reception, because since digging into the stats reveals different situations, you've got to wonder just how different?


Incidentally, that could be part of why Harris is salty. About the only thing Warren had to do was swerve his guy a little and sprint. The team laid out a red carpet for Warren to make his yards, blocking wise. Harris is receiving a bunch of criticism because in no small part, the team hasn't done that for him. That's got to sting.

edit: Also even with zero salt, it's maybe not surprising that a RB isn't giving a ton of praise for a run that was 90% blocking. It'd be like giving praise for someone going to the store and not forgetting what's on the list.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Interesting snippet from a fantasy football article on The Athletic:

"It’s possible that the Steelers are going to slightly reduce the number of scrimmage plays they give Najee Harris, as Jaylen Warren outpaced Harris in GBYPA (8.0 versus 7.4) and yards per reception (7.6 versus 5.6). Even if this happens, Harris may net out ahead of his 2022 pace due to a potential GBR improvement, as he was tied for 40th in GBR received at 34.9 percent, while Pittsburgh placed 12th in team GBR at 42.4 percent."

That's Good Blocking Rate, and Good Blocking Yards Per Attempt (i.e. if the block is good, how many yards are they picking up).

Not surprised to learn that Harris got significantly worse blocking. Bad blocking no less. 34.9 would be 30th if it was a team here. It's what my eye test was telling me. It's a shame the article didn't give us how much of it Warren got, and how both did on plays where they got not-good blocking.

And it's a shame they don't dig deeper into what's happening on the plays they both get good blocking or a reception, because since digging into the stats reveals different situations, you've got to wonder just how different?


Incidentally, that could be part of why Harris is salty. About the only thing Warren had to do was swerve his guy a little and sprint. The team laid out a red carpet for Warren to make his yards, blocking wise. Harris is receiving a bunch of criticism because in no small part, the team hasn't done that for him. That's got to sting.

edit: Also even with zero salt, it's maybe not surprising that a RB isn't giving a ton of praise for a run that was 90% blocking. It'd be like giving praise for someone going to the store and not forgetting what's on the list.

Warren basically said it was all blocking, but he turned on the jets at the Bills 40 and was never touched.

That part was all him.

Harris I don’t feel has that extra gear and would have been caught.

Hopefully Warren keeps pushing him because I feel they will need both backs to have successful seasons if they want to make the playoffs.

 

[Peat]

We discussed this a few months back, but I'm at 25-ish times. Once you start getting into the 30's with QB's around Pickett's level, it's usually a sign your team is losing:

OT: - The Pittsburgher Thread: Super Bowl? Thats like a giant pot of chips or popcorn right?

Pickett can lead men. I think that was so evident when Mitch came out and Kenny came in. Kenny has a set on him, and it comes through with the way he plays and the way guys play for him. It's kind of where the similarity between Cousins and Pickett splits for me, for the better. I find...

forums.hfboards.com

A couple of drives in the preseason isn't enough to change my expectations. As others have said in the past, though, I want them to cut him loose on the types of passes he's throwing.

How much do you need to see to change your expectations? Because, yeah, the sample is too small and hasn't had enough pressure.

At the same time, the way he's throwing guys open, the way he's going through his progressions, it looks different. Right now he's looking like he made a big leap.

Also this is about more than just Pickett. It's about the guys catching the ball vs the guys running the ball. The former are looking a sight more formidable than the latter right now.

 

[TooManyHumans]

Harris has a career long of 37 yards in the NFL. I think his career long at Alabama was 42. He was never going to take that to the house unless he stiff armed the entire secondary and LBer core.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Harris has a career long of 37 yards in the NFL. I think his career long at Alabama was 42. He was never going to take that to the house unless he stiff armed the entire secondary and LBer core.

Well, the hurdle play against Notre Dame in the playoff went for 53, but the point of the topic being discussed remains.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Useless, but interesting stat:

Ravens couldn’t extended their NFL record 24 game preseason win streak agt Wash last night.

 

[pistolpete11]

How much do you need to see to change your expectations? Because, yeah, the sample is too small and hasn't had enough pressure.

At the same time, the way he's throwing guys open, the way he's going through his progressions, it looks different. Right now he's looking like he made a big leap.

Also this is about more than just Pickett. It's about the guys catching the ball vs the guys running the ball. The former are looking a sight more formidable than the latter right now.

More than zero regular season passes.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

There's a version of use both guys often that makes us a very run-heavy team. It's what the team have talked about wanting. That's why I'm asking about what exactly is meant by often.

Idk. I more meant like an actual timeshare. Like if there’s 24 carries in a game, both guys see 10+. Not Najee 18 and Warren 6. Wasn’t directed so much at volume, more at % share of RB carries/touches because Tomlin has typically liked a bellcow.

 

[Peat]

Idk. I more meant like an actual timeshare. Like if there’s 24 carries in a game, both guys see 10+. Not Najee 18 and Warren 6. Wasn’t directed so much at volume, more at % share of RB carries/touches because Tomlin has typically liked a bellcow.

Fair. I am going off on a bit of a tangent but not entirely, as the type of team they want to be is going to dictate who gets carries.

Warren got 23% of the carries Harris got on 1st & 10 (151 to Harris, 36 to Warren). Harris hugely outperformed Warren there - 4 yards a carry compared to 3.3, 14 1st downs compared to 0. You're not going to give Warren any more of the work there, right? But that's 55% of Harris' workload. If you're not eating into that, what are you eating into to give them roughly even work?

Where Warren has outshone Harris is 2nd & medium to long. But even if you give Warren every scrap of Harris' work there, that's 82 carries, which means Harris has 190 carries and Warren has 159.

Which means if we want them to be even, we basically have to invent more runs in that position for Warren to take, At which point we're back to talking what sort of team the Steelers should be.

I would love to see someone do a big, massive deep dive with stats and data, but right now it looks to me like -

Harris and Warren do different things well
The things Harris does better are the things the team needs more often
The most obvious way that changes is if the team leans more on the run

And therefore, the call for Harris and Warren to be given equal carries leaves me with questions.

 

[xlm34]

Fair. I am going off on a bit of a tangent but not entirely, as the type of team they want to be is going to dictate who gets carries.

Warren got 23% of the carries Harris got on 1st & 10 (151 to Harris, 36 to Warren). Harris hugely outperformed Warren there - 4 yards a carry compared to 3.3, 14 1st downs compared to 0. You're not going to give Warren any more of the work there, right? But that's 55% of Harris' workload. If you're not eating into that, what are you eating into to give them roughly even work?

Where Warren has outshone Harris is 2nd & medium to long. But even if you give Warren every scrap of Harris' work there, that's 82 carries, which means Harris has 190 carries and Warren has 159.

Which means if we want them to be even, we basically have to invent more runs in that position for Warren to take, At which point we're back to talking what sort of team the Steelers should be.

I would love to see someone do a big, massive deep dive with stats and data, but right now it looks to me like -

Harris and Warren do different things well
The things Harris does better are the things the team needs more often
The most obvious way that changes is if the team leans more on the run

And therefore, the call for Harris and Warren to be given equal carries leaves me with questions.

I would love to see what defenses Harris and Warren faced in those second and medium/long situations.

Like if they saw Warren on the field, are they anticipating a pass vs a run with Harris? It’s probably not substantial enough to make a big difference but I’d be curious to see the numbers.

 

[Peat]

I would love to see what defenses Harris and Warren faced in those second and medium/long situations.

Like if they saw Warren on the field, are they anticipating a pass vs a run with Harris? It’s probably not substantial enough to make a big difference but I’d be curious to see the numbers.

Ditto. It's also possible that if you dug, you'd find out Pickett's passing numbers were better with Harris on the field in that situation. Maybe you don't find that, but it all seems a critical part of the evaluation. After all, the team does pass more than it runs in the situations where Warren is a more effective runner.

Sadly I don't think that sort of data is out there. But there's a ton more data than Warren having a higher YPC, and I think it's saying that it's a more complicated story than that.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I would love to see what defenses Harris and Warren faced in those second and medium/long situations.

Like if they saw Warren on the field, are they anticipating a pass vs a run with Harris? It’s probably not substantial enough to make a big difference but I’d be curious to see the numbers.

Agreed. As a fan, I'm not going to do it but you'd think an organization would assess its offense's formations and play calls from those formations, plus defenses faced, when analyzing this kind of data.

 

[Andy99]

Agreed. As a fan, I'm not going to do it but you'd think an organization would assess its offense's formations and play calls from those formations, plus defenses faced, when analyzing this kind of data.

and you would think a good coaching staff would self scout and stop telegraphing running plays on first down and start passing equally with Harris on the field so opponents don’t get a beat on them…

 

[Peat]

Agreed. As a fan, I'm not going to do it but you'd think an organization would assess its offense's formations and play calls from those formations, plus defenses faced, when analyzing this kind of data.

I'd love to say I'm confident the Steelers have done all this and are placing their in Harris for reasons like this...

... doesn't seem that sort of org, alas.

 

[JTG]

Harris gave an odd interview when asked about Warren’s run:

Steelers RB Najee Harris not ready to praise teammate Jaylen Warren

There is certainly some tension coming from Najee Harris about the Steelers running back situation.

sports.yahoo.com

Hopefully there isn’t animosity building there, but I’m sure he’s not thrilled.

Warren basically said it was all blocking, but he turned on the jets at the Bills 40 and was never touched.

That part was all him.

Harris I don’t feel has that extra gear and would have been caught.

Hopefully Warren keeps pushing him because I feel they will need both backs to have successful seasons if they want to make the playoffs.

Yeah, I saw that. It was a great run by Warren, and as we have said earlier, Najee probably doesn't take that to the house.

We discussed this a few months back, but I'm at 25-ish times. Once you start getting into the 30's with QB's around Pickett's level, it's usually a sign your team is losing:

OT: - The Pittsburgher Thread: Super Bowl? Thats like a giant pot of chips or popcorn right?

Pickett can lead men. I think that was so evident when Mitch came out and Kenny came in. Kenny has a set on him, and it comes through with the way he plays and the way guys play for him. It's kind of where the similarity between Cousins and Pickett splits for me, for the better. I find...

forums.hfboards.com

A couple of drives in the preseason isn't enough to change my expectations. As others have said in the past, though, I want them to cut him loose on the types of passes he's throwing.


-------------------

Maybe it's a good thing if Harris is pissed?

It all depends on the offense. If they are doing dink and dunk passes, I'd expect Kenny to throw 35-40 times a game. If they are stretching the field, I'd expect <30.

Interesting snippet from a fantasy football article on The Athletic:

"It’s possible that the Steelers are going to slightly reduce the number of scrimmage plays they give Najee Harris, as Jaylen Warren outpaced Harris in GBYPA (8.0 versus 7.4) and yards per reception (7.6 versus 5.6). Even if this happens, Harris may net out ahead of his 2022 pace due to a potential GBR improvement, as he was tied for 40th in GBR received at 34.9 percent, while Pittsburgh placed 12th in team GBR at 42.4 percent."

That's Good Blocking Rate, and Good Blocking Yards Per Attempt (i.e. if the block is good, how many yards are they picking up).

Not surprised to learn that Harris got significantly worse blocking. Bad blocking no less. 34.9 would be 30th if it was a team here. It's what my eye test was telling me. It's a shame the article didn't give us how much of it Warren got, and how both did on plays where they got not-good blocking.

And it's a shame they don't dig deeper into what's happening on the plays they both get good blocking or a reception, because since digging into the stats reveals different situations, you've got to wonder just how different?


Incidentally, that could be part of why Harris is salty. About the only thing Warren had to do was swerve his guy a little and sprint. The team laid out a red carpet for Warren to make his yards, blocking wise. Harris is receiving a bunch of criticism because in no small part, the team hasn't done that for him. That's got to sting.

edit: Also even with zero salt, it's maybe not surprising that a RB isn't giving a ton of praise for a run that was 90% blocking. It'd be like giving praise for someone going to the store and not forgetting what's on the list.

So my question with the "blocking rate" stats is when is it determined when the block is good or not? Because Najee running up the backs of his linemen before they can even really create a hole would see him have a lower good blocking rate than a guy like LBell who would just wait for blocks to form before he took off.

I still think the best thing this front office has done is take out Dotson and put in Seumalo. That's going to make Moore look better (and it really has) and it gives the RBs a guy to run behind. Seumalo is basically guaranteed to get push every single drive. I think Philly was insane to let him walk, but that's just me.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

and you would think a good coaching staff would self scout and stop telegraphing running plays on first down and start passing equally with Harris on the field so opponents don’t get a beat on them…

I'd love to say I'm confident the Steelers have done all this and are placing their in Harris for reasons like this...

... doesn't seem that sort of org, alas.

Indeed. I was leaving that part unsaid and hoped-for.

 

[Peat]

I would love to see what defenses Harris and Warren faced in those second and medium/long situations.

Like if they saw Warren on the field, are they anticipating a pass vs a run with Harris? It’s probably not substantial enough to make a big difference but I’d be curious to see the numbers.

Circling back -

On 2nd and 7-9 -

Harris has 27 carries for 70 yards

Warren has 6 carries for 59 yards

That right there is half the difference in their stats.

And got to think there's a very big difference in how they were being used there. Like Warren is being used sparingly on option reads against teams that have sold out on the pass and that Harris is being used to inch back to within 3rd & medium/short in the safest way possible and who cares if the entire opposition is waiting for it.

You'd have to watch a lot of video to be sure of it, but it feels like there's got to be something there.

 

[Andy99]

Circling back -

On 2nd and 7-9 -

Harris has 27 carries for 70 yards

Warren has 6 carries for 59 yards

That right there is half the difference in their stats.

And got to think there's a very big difference in how they were being used there. Like Warren is being used sparingly on option reads against teams that have sold out on the pass and that Harris is being used to inch back to within 3rd & medium/short in the safest way possible and who cares if the entire opposition is waiting for it.

You'd have to watch a lot of video to be sure of it, but it feels like there's got to be something there.

Second and 7 is not an automatic passing down, the way 3rd and 7 is…the problem for the Steelers last season was that they were not doing well on first down…that’s all Harris and the choices of run/pass the Steelers chose…if the Steelers start passing more on first down w Harris in there, and are successful, then they’ll get in more 2nd and 3rd downs where the opposition isn’t keying on the pass…should open things up and that should be to the advantage of the faster Warren…I think the Steelers should get closer to a 50-50 split betw Harris and Warren but Najee clearly has an advantage when there’s only a yard or two to get

 

[Peat]

Second and 7 is not an automatic passing down, the way 3rd and 7 is…the problem for the Steelers last season was that they were not doing well on first down…that’s all Harris and the choices of run/pass the Steelers chose…if the Steelers start passing more on first down w Harris in there, and are successful, then they’ll get in more 2nd and 3rd downs where the opposition isn’t keying on the pass…should open things up and that should be to the advantage of the faster Warren…I think the Steelers should get closer to a 50-50 split betw Harris and Warren but Najee clearly has an advantage when there’s only a yard or two to get

How is it all Harris when the stats show the team blocked far worse in front of him than they did other players?

And it's clearly not an automatic passing down, or teams wouldn't be waiting for Harris' run on 2nd and 7-9.