OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: They Killed Kenny!

[DanielPlainview]

The same arguments have been made non-stop for weeks in here. One side thinks Pickett sucks because he's not putting up good numbers, and the other side just wants to see him put in a better situation before concluding he's good or bad. The arguments in this point are just talking past each other.

I personally think the "Pickett sucks" crowd is a lot more unreasonable in this discussion, not because they criticize Pickett but because there seems to be some downright fantasies being argued against in here from that side (like "no one criticizes Pickett because he went to Pitt" or "Pickett deserves more blame for the offense than Canada"). But at this point, no one is going to convince the other side of anything. The same arguments made today are the arguments that have been made for weeks, if not longer.

I really think a large cohort of Steelers fans are detached from reality about QB development. They really only ever saw Ben hit the ground running and think anything less than that means a guy sucks.

The realities about QBing the NFL are much more difficult than they seem to want to accept. It takes most players, even great players, half a decade to really come into their own. Can Pickett get there in this offense and under the philosophy of the current head coach? I'm very doubtful.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not even sure it's so much about whether he sucks. Nobody disagrees that the performance needs to better, and I think there's relatively few people who've absolutely made up their mind on him.

It is, as TooManyHumans says, one side thinking its absurd to the point of annoyance that people bring up the circumstances around Pickett's poor performance so much.

And the other side thinking it's completely natural and usual to bring up those circumstances.

I really get the impression that this side has made up their mind that he sucks. Especially on other places like reddit.

I really think a large cohort of Steelers fans are detached from reality about QB development. They really only ever saw Ben hit the ground running and think anything less than that means a guy sucks.

The realities about QBing the NFL are much more difficult than they seem to want to accept. It takes most players, even great players, half a decade to really come into their own. Can Pickett get there in this offense and under the philosophy of the current head coach? I'm very doubtful.

And with Ben, I don't think Ben became "Ben" until he was a good 5-6 years into his NFL career. He was a good QB obviously, but I think post-2010 Ben was a clearly better QB than pre-2010 Ben. I think you can prove that pretty easily statistically.

Looking at his stats for 2004-2009 compared to 2010-2018:

-Completion%: 63.3% for 04-09, 65.0% from 10-18
-TD%: 5.3% from 04-09, 5.0% from 10-18
-INT%: 3.4% from 04-09, 2.3% from 10-18
-Yards/game: 221.9 from 04-09, 286.0 for 10-18
-Rate (PFR rating): 91.7 from 04-09, 95.5 from 10-18

 

[Peat]

I really get the impression that this side has made up their mind that he sucks. Especially on other places like reddit.

Oh there's plenty of that around. Just get the impression it's not so much the case for many here. Might be wrong. Even so, I don't think it's what drives the argument.

 

[TooManyHumans]

I explained this extensively already, but I’m sure it got lost with all the exaggerating coming off that Brightside poster’s kb.

So not wasting time rehashing it.

If you think KP never gets any blame, you must have a legendary ignore list.

Some people blame him. Others give every excuse they can for why it isn't his fault when he plays like shit.

 

[DanielPlainview]

I really get the impression that this side has made up their mind that he sucks. Especially on other places like reddit.



And with Ben, I don't think Ben became "Ben" until he was a good 5-6 years into his NFL career. He was a good QB obviously, but I think post-2010 Ben was a clearly better QB than pre-2010 Ben. I think you can prove that pretty easily statistically.

Looking at his stats for 2004-2009 compared to 2010-2018:

-Completion%: 63.3% for 04-09, 65.0% from 10-18
-TD%: 5.3% from 04-09, 5.0% from 10-18
-INT%: 3.4% from 04-09, 2.3% from 10-18
-Yards/game: 221.9 from 04-09, 286.0 for 10-18
-Rate (PFR rating): 91.7 from 04-09, 95.5 from 10-18

They saw him go 15-1 with a AFC championship game appearance as a rookie and think that's just how it's supposed to be. It's not at all. Not only was it a different era where an offense could be carried by a strong run game, they had a much, much better coaching staff with a HC who knew his limitations and allowed his OC to be creative.

 

[TooManyHumans]

I really get the impression that this side has made up their mind that he sucks. Especially on other places like reddit.



And with Ben, I don't think Ben became "Ben" until he was a good 5-6 years into his NFL career. He was a good QB obviously, but I think post-2010 Ben was a clearly better QB than pre-2010 Ben. I think you can prove that pretty easily statistically.

Looking at his stats for 2004-2009 compared to 2010-2018:

-Completion%: 63.3% for 04-09, 65.0% from 10-18
-TD%: 5.3% from 04-09, 5.0% from 10-18
-INT%: 3.4% from 04-09, 2.3% from 10-18
-Yards/game: 221.9 from 04-09, 286.0 for 10-18
-Rate (PFR rating): 91.7 from 04-09, 95.5 from 10-18

I don't know about everyone else, but I think he sucked in the Packers game, when he had an elite running game and good protection. That doesn't mean he will always suck, but it definitely does raise red flags. I am also concerned that he has yet to have anything approaching a complete game or impressive stats in any game. I am concerned that he often seems to lock onto guys and is not seeing the field or reading defenses. I am concerned that he isn't all that good at staying in the pocket even when the protection is good. I don't think any of that is unfair, even allowing for Canada sucking. There are plenty of plays that are out there to be made even in this shitty offense and Pickett is not making them right now. It is a big concern because we aren't going to do anything without a good QB. I do agree that QBs take time to develop, so I am not giving up on Pickett. I like that he has stepped up his game in crunch time whenever we are down but within range (he did squat in the blowouts). I think his arm is good enough to make all the throws with proper footwork. I like that at least last year he showed an ability to make plays when things break down. I think he seems like a really likable guy and would be a good leader if he is good enough as a QB. However, I expect to see some actual development before the end of the season or I am looking hard in the draft at guys who can compete with Pickett to start next year.

 

[Peat]

Build the trenches.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

why do people compare KP to Ben he wasn’t drafted to be Ben he doesn’t have the draft pedigree or draft profile he is supposed to be the 3rd best Qb in franchise history. Compare him to Stout Neil Stewart Malone

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Some people blame him. Others give every excuse they can for why it isn't his fault when he plays like shit.

Some people say he’s already a bust and blows - you have extremes on both sides.

I’m willing to give him three years and be patient.

I’ve seen a dozen years of Tomlin’s incompetence.

Pretty massive difference between Tomlin’s shitty coaching, setting aside 2016, since their last SB appearance, vs 1.5 yrs of KP.

Not hard to understand why some of us would have way more tolerance for one over the other.

If KP is still struggling by the end of next season I’ll no longer have much patience left.

 

[TooManyHumans]

I don't understand what Tomlin's coaching since the last Super Bowl has to do with criticizing Pickett when Pickett plays poorly, but ok.

 

[Rossi Rat]

Curious what the PITT fans have to say about this. The Lady Dukes beat the Lady Panthers. Mark Madden at the game: “send us your men, Pitt, we’ll beat them too”.

Pitt fans can’t say ANYTHING because their coach is SCARED to play Duquesne. Absolutely pathetic. The city game was great and their scared coach ruined it. Coward.

 

[Factorial]

Curious what the PITT fans have to say about this. The Lady Dukes beat the Lady Panthers. Mark Madden at the game: “send us your men, Pitt, we’ll beat them too”.

Pitt fans can’t say ANYTHING because their coach is SCARED to play Duquesne. Absolutely pathetic. The city game was great and their scared coach ruined it. Coward.

Post somewhere else troll.

 

[Smoke]

Curious what the PITT fans have to say about this. The Lady Dukes beat the Lady Panthers. Mark Madden at the game: “send us your men, Pitt, we’ll beat them too”.

Pitt fans can’t say ANYTHING because their coach is SCARED to play Duquesne. Absolutely pathetic. The city game was great and their scared coach ruined it. Coward.

Hey Mark, nobody cares buddy.

 

[Factorial]

Hey Mark, nobody cares buddy.

Not a big Madden fan but he would post under his own name as he did on another Pens' board 15 years ago. This troll is trying to ride the coattails of Madden.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I don't understand what Tomlin's coaching since the last Super Bowl has to do with criticizing Pickett when Pickett plays poorly, but ok.

Because some of us put the bulk of the blame on Tomlin, the guy who wants everything nice and safe, for the offense being a mess and not just the easy scapegoats like KP and Canada.

He's the one constant in this org failings the last dozen years.

It's not really that hard of a concept to follow.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Curious what the PITT fans have to say about this. The Lady Dukes beat the Lady Panthers. Mark Madden at the game: “send us your men, Pitt, we’ll beat them too”.

Pitt fans can’t say ANYTHING because their coach is SCARED to play Duquesne. Absolutely pathetic. The city game was great and their scared coach ruined it. Coward.

This is a football thread, you stain.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't know about everyone else, but I think he sucked in the Packers game, when he had an elite running game and good protection. That doesn't mean he will always suck, but it definitely does raise red flags. I am also concerned that he has yet to have anything approaching a complete game or impressive stats in any game. I am concerned that he often seems to lock onto guys and is not seeing the field or reading defenses. I am concerned that he isn't all that good at staying in the pocket even when the protection is good. I don't think any of that is unfair, even allowing for Canada sucking. There are plenty of plays that are out there to be made even in this shitty offense and Pickett is not making them right now. It is a big concern because we aren't going to do anything without a good QB. I do agree that QBs take time to develop, so I am not giving up on Pickett. I like that he has stepped up his game in crunch time whenever we are down but within range (he did squat in the blowouts). I think his arm is good enough to make all the throws with proper footwork. I like that at least last year he showed an ability to make plays when things break down. I think he seems like a really likable guy and would be a good leader if he is good enough as a QB. However, I expect to see some actual development before the end of the season or I am looking hard in the draft at guys who can compete with Pickett to start next year.

See, none of this is unreasonable to me whatsoever. I don't think this level of criticism is unfair whatsoever. I don't think anyone would argue that Pickett has been good, especially not recently. Most people (at least as far as I can tell) recognize that a lot of the things you're saying are weaknesses with him.

I've been adamant for a while now that I think Pickett is just a system QB and any sort of success he may have in the NFL is more as a leader game manager type. The issue is that if you're not calling good plays that create open receivers, you're not going to have an effective passing game. Pickett isn't going to drive an offense with his arm, he's just not good enough to do that and I don't think he was really ever projected to be good enough to do that.

I keep bringing up Purdy as an example because I feel he and Pickett are roughly equally talented QBs. Purdy is currently leading the NFL in QBR while Pickett is near the bottom, and I feel like that is massively driven by the differences in supporting casts between the two teams. Pickett needs to be better than what he has been, but I seriously question how much better he can realistically be on this team without a massive restructure of the offense. I feel like a ton of the areas of disagreement on Pickett are things like "he's not good because he's not putting up good numbers", but I just fundamentally do not think this team is putting any non-elite QB in a position to put up good numbers.

To me, that seems to be the main point of the people who "defend" Pickett now. It's not saying that he's not at blame, he hasn't been playing well and he objectively needs to be better. However, how much better he can be is ultimately capped due to the things outside of his control with the team. With this team as-is, I think the most realistic "good game" for Pickett would be like 250 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. I don't think a QB of his talent level can realistically do better than that for this team as-is.

For reference, that 250 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs performance is basically what he did in the Raiders game earlier in the year. Of his 9 games this year, he has 1 game that hits that (Raiders 23-18 win) and 2 games that got pretty close (Ravens 17-10 win and Rams 24-17 win). The other 6 games either had turnovers or weren't particularly close.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

What makes Howell and Purdy so good is exactly what KP struggles with. KP doesn’t process as fast as them he doesn’t throw with any anticipation like they do.
KP couldn’t function in an offense based on in breaking routes like Purdy he is way to inaccurate

 

[Peat]

I keep bringing up Purdy as an example because I feel he and Pickett are roughly equally talented QBs.

My big fear with the Pickett and Purdy comparison is that the biggest thing with a QB to me is how fast they see it. Purdy, in the admittedly low amount I've seen him, sees it quick. That stacks up with the report that he aced the S2 cognition test. Only one other QB had an elite score that year. Nobody said who, but odds are it's not Pickett.

I'm not comfortable saying Pickett sees it slow, but does he consistently see it fast? Will he ever do so? Got doubts.

However, how much better he can be is ultimately capped due to the things outside of his control with the team.

This is a good way of putting my big belief here though. As far as I'm concerned, every player's ceiling is set more by the guys around him than by his natural talent (more, not totally). I think the ceiling provided by the team in his time here has been brutally low to the point where I do not know what can be unlocked by more talented surroundings - assuming the damage isn't permanent.

 

[ziggyjoe212]

If Tomlin thought MT or Rudolph gave them a better chance of winning, they would be in.

KP does what Tomlin wants the best, plays safe and protects the ball.

That isn't development, that isn't finding out answers, that's playing safe so Tomlin can win 9 games.

There is no plan being put in place here that will be successful in the playoffs.

I continue to ask how you and others expect them to win in the playoffs playing offense like this and I get the run around, because anyone with a brain knows this is a losing formula come playoff time.

You're putting words in peoples mouths. Even the biggest Steelers homer doesn't expect them to win in the playoffs with this offense. You're creating an argument that doesn't exist.

 

[ziggyjoe212]

The 4th quarter has determined this is not true.

So you think he's a starter caliber QB? Because his 6 TD's in 9 games and consistent inaccuracy says otherwise.
And who knows, maybe he can thrive under a real OC. But so far he hasn't shown anything to say he's a starting level QB.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

You're putting words in peoples mouths. Even the biggest Steelers homer doesn't expect them to win in the playoffs with this offense. You're creating an argument that doesn't exist.

Nah, this isn’t that hard.

If you make the argument Tomlin needs to baby KP, but the offense isn’t capable of winning in the playoffs this way, there is only one conclusion to make:

They are just playing to keep Tomlin’s win streak alive.

Pretending there is any logic beyond this is ridiculous.

 

[TooManyHumans]

See, none of this is unreasonable to me whatsoever. I don't think this level of criticism is unfair whatsoever. I don't think anyone would argue that Pickett has been good, especially not recently. Most people (at least as far as I can tell) recognize that a lot of the things you're saying are weaknesses with him.

I've been adamant for a while now that I think Pickett is just a system QB and any sort of success he may have in the NFL is more as a leader game manager type. The issue is that if you're not calling good plays that create open receivers, you're not going to have an effective passing game. Pickett isn't going to drive an offense with his arm, he's just not good enough to do that and I don't think he was really ever projected to be good enough to do that.

I keep bringing up Purdy as an example because I feel he and Pickett are roughly equally talented QBs. Purdy is currently leading the NFL in QBR while Pickett is near the bottom, and I feel like that is massively driven by the differences in supporting casts between the two teams. Pickett needs to be better than what he has been, but I seriously question how much better he can realistically be on this team without a massive restructure of the offense. I feel like a ton of the areas of disagreement on Pickett are things like "he's not good because he's not putting up good numbers", but I just fundamentally do not think this team is putting any non-elite QB in a position to put up good numbers.

To me, that seems to be the main point of the people who "defend" Pickett now. It's not saying that he's not at blame, he hasn't been playing well and he objectively needs to be better. However, how much better he can be is ultimately capped due to the things outside of his control with the team. With this team as-is, I think the most realistic "good game" for Pickett would be like 250 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. I don't think a QB of his talent level can realistically do better than that for this team as-is.

For reference, that 250 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs performance is basically what he did in the Raiders game earlier in the year. Of his 9 games this year, he has 1 game that hits that (Raiders 23-18 win) and 2 games that got pretty close (Ravens 17-10 win and Rams 24-17 win). The other 6 games either had turnovers or weren't particularly close.

I think that is fair but I also think I have seen Purdy throw with anticipation that I have simply not seen from Pickett. Yes, Purdy much more often has wide open guys but when he does not I have seen him throw to a spot and throw a WR open. I have very rarely seen that from Pickett. The closest I can think of is the back shoulder throws, which he sure seems to predetermine to throw. When he does, he makes a nice tight spiral throw, but otherwise he seems to wait for a guy to be wide open to throw the ball. He has to get better at anticipating and throwing guys open. He does not have the arm to be late, which he often seems to be.

 

[TooManyHumans]

Nah, this isn’t that hard.

If you make the argument Tomlin needs to baby KP, but the offense isn’t capable of winning in the playoffs this way, there is only one conclusion to make:

They are just playing to keep Tomlin’s win streak alive.

Pretending there is any logic beyond this is ridiculous.

Maybe babying Pickett is the way to get him to grow. Let him get good at the easy things before throwing him into the fire completely. Benton just gave an interview in which he credited Tomlin for not giving him too much all at once but easing him into a bigger role. It is possible that Tomlin is trying to walk the line between winning and growing Pickett. If Pickett shows more perhaps he will be allowed to do more. Also, Pickett has left a ton of plays out there, even if he is being protected. If he isn't even making the most of his simplified options, I am not sure why I should think the key to unlocking his potential is throwing more at him.

 

[JTG]

So you think he's a starter caliber QB? Because his 6 TD's in 9 games and consistent inaccuracy says otherwise.
And who knows, maybe he can thrive under a real OC. But so far he hasn't shown anything to say he's a starting level QB.

I think Kenny is talented enough to develop into a decent starter, but I don't believe he, nor any other QB, would be productive in this offense. When he has to just go out and play football, he is successful. When he's operating in this gameplan there is a noticeable difference.