OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Super Bowl? Thats like a giant pot of chips or popcorn right?

[JTG]

Pickett can lead men. I think that was so evident when Mitch came out and Kenny came in. Kenny has a set on him, and it comes through with the way he plays and the way guys play for him. It's kind of where the similarity between Cousins and Pickett splits for me, for the better. I find Cousins to be kind of cringy, and there hasn't been a shortage of Cousins WRs who have thrown him under the bus. I think Kenny has enough talent coupled with the intangible factor that could see him be a surprisingly productive QB in this league.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this is the most likable team I can remember since 2005.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I think the Dak record of 16-22 when he throws 35 Or passes is where they draw the line for KP. Heck ben only won 1 playoff game where he completed 35 passes and never had 3 tds in a win

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Steelers have the 7th easiest schedule based on last year's records.

2023 NFL strength of schedule for every team: Eagles, Cowboys among hardest; Steelers, Packers have it easier

Here's how the strength of schedule ranking breaks down for all 32 teams heading into the 2023 season

www.cbssports.com

 

[WickedWrister]

Vegas betting odds for the AFC North has us insanely lower than the rest. Apparently people are really smitten with Jackson and Watson...

I'm interested to see this year play out bc I still feel like as a team we are solid. The thing that transcends us to a threat is KP progression and Canada having passing plays beyond the sticks.

FWIW, we were +900 to win the division last offseason, or an implied probability of 10%. This year we are at +550 implied probability of 15ish%. Not a MASSIVE bump, but still significantly better.

But yeah, it all comes down to whether KP8 can take that next step. I'll echo what others here have said, as well as the coaching staff and front office, about wanting to be a balanced football team. You hear Tomlin talk constantly about needing balance to marry the run and the pass, and that's all fine and good, but its 2023. You have to be able to throw the ball to win football games. I don't care how dominant your defense is, the best offenses in the league can put up 30 pts against anyone.

The game that comes to mind is the Week 11 game I think against Cincy, the second matchup. We lost 37-30, but it was a competitive affair. We forced a couple of turnovers to keep it within reach, but the difference was really just the Bengals and Burrow being more efficient through the air. It's just really, really hard to continually string together 10, 12 play TD drives.

 

[Pens1566]

Let's be real though. Above this question mark the actual indicator of the Steelers winning or losing is a healthy Watt.

Still crazy we are a .690 win pctg when Watt plays.

Agree completely. And while Watt is the primary one, I don't think he is the only concern in that area. To a lesser extent (just how much is obviously debatable) I'd also include Cam/Minkah/Harris. Any one of those guys goes down for an extended period and we are in really bad shape.

 

[JTG]

FWIW, we were +900 to win the division last offseason, or an implied probability of 10%. This year we are at +550 implied probability of 15ish%. Not a MASSIVE bump, but still significantly better.

But yeah, it all comes down to whether KP8 can take that next step. I'll echo what others here have said, as well as the coaching staff and front office, about wanting to be a balanced football team. You hear Tomlin talk constantly about needing balance to marry the run and the pass, and that's all fine and good, but its 2023. You have to be able to throw the ball to win football games. I don't care how dominant your defense is, the best offenses in the league can put up 30 pts against anyone.

The game that comes to mind is the Week 11 game I think against Cincy, the second matchup. We lost 37-30, but it was a competitive affair. We forced a couple of turnovers to keep it within reach, but the difference was really just the Bengals and Burrow being more efficient through the air. It's just really, really hard to continually string together 10, 12 play TD drives.

View attachment 705938

Isn't this the game where our DBs dropped 4 interceptions?

And if it's not an advanced stat, that needs to be an advanced stat.

 

[JTG]

And I'm already saying that if Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu is there for us to draft in 2024, we move Jones to the right side and take either one of them. I think both Fashanu and Alt are generational LTs.

 

[Josey Wales]

Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
·
2m
The #Steelers have informed veteran CB Arthur Maulet, with them since 2021, that he’s being released, source said. An experienced CB available.

 

[Peat]

I also don't understand the need to throw him into a sink or swim situation. Ben was obviously babied in his first 2 years, but the only season in his first 5 where he averaged more than 30 attempts was 2006 when he went 7-8 and was playing from behind more. It was also probably the worst season of his career. It wasn't until after the second Super Bowl where he started slinging it around more. The game's changed some since then, but I also don't think they should be asking him to do what a HoF'er did either.

I don't want sink or swim with him, but I think he can be potentially great.

To my mind, if the mindset is not seeing the guy being significantly better than Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill, then the logical thing to do is want to find out as quickly as possible. I don't see the point of being patient and slow with someone who's not good enough. Who cares if you make the next Dalton bust through impatience?

I also think that in terms of a comparison with Big Ben, then... tbh, I think it makes sense to compare him to the other QBs around today rather than to Big Ben. Forget the different era of football bit - we're talking a guy with Hall of Fame traits who didn't start playing QB until his last year of High School. That's kind of unique. I'm not sure that's a useful barometer

Looking at other recent Y2 QBs, excluding near slam dunk guys, around the league -

Tagovailoa threw 32.8 passes per game his 11 full games in Y2.
Mac Jones threw 31.6 passes per game
Jalen Hurts threw 28.8 passes in Y2 after being a near total redshirt in Y1.
Josh Allen threw 28.8 passes per game in Y2, and that's as the biggest success in terms of raw traits to real starter in near forever

I feel like its fair to ask Pickett to do the same as them. I don't see the advantages of asking him to do less.

So, yeah, 25-30 can work. I'm personally putting it at around 27-33. I compare Pickett to other rookie QBs and I think that, given his greater level of college experience and prior experience with his OC's concepts, I'm happier putting him on an accelerated course of running things and being the guy. I also think given that he looked fairly comfortable throwing 27-30 times a game after the bye, I'm happy with him at that level.



I would also add that in general, I firmly believe this team needs an offence that has a chance if it gets into a shootout with an elite offence. I don't think there's a SB chance without it. We've been over this a ton in general in this thread, and I get you can't just install it right away, but I want that to be the destination and I don't think they get there without continuing to move to it.

I don't think they need to be having Pickett 35-40 times a game to get there, but they do need to keep challenging him. I agree the next growth point should be in throwing deeper more regularly rather than throwing more often. I think we can all agree there.

And I'm already saying that if Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu is there for us to draft in 2024, we move Jones to the right side and take either one of them. I think both Fashanu and Alt are generational LTs.

If they're drafting high enough to be looking at those guys they need to be looking at QBs instead.

 

[xlm34]

Maulet being released is kind of weird. I guess the guy they signed from the Vikings is their new slot corner but they have no one behind him.

 

[xlm34]

FWIW, we were +900 to win the division last offseason, or an implied probability of 10%. This year we are at +550 implied probability of 15ish%. Not a MASSIVE bump, but still significantly better.

But yeah, it all comes down to whether KP8 can take that next step. I'll echo what others here have said, as well as the coaching staff and front office, about wanting to be a balanced football team. You hear Tomlin talk constantly about needing balance to marry the run and the pass, and that's all fine and good, but its 2023. You have to be able to throw the ball to win football games. I don't care how dominant your defense is, the best offenses in the league can put up 30 pts against anyone.

The game that comes to mind is the Week 11 game I think against Cincy, the second matchup. We lost 37-30, but it was a competitive affair. We forced a couple of turnovers to keep it within reach, but the difference was really just the Bengals and Burrow being more efficient through the air. It's just really, really hard to continually string together 10, 12 play TD drives.

View attachment 705938

I think efficient is the key word there. You don’t have to start being pass heavy, but you do need to be able to stretch the field when you do pass.

I like where the Steelers are headed with their identity on both sides of the ball. In a world where defenses are getting smaller and faster to try to counter these passing attacks, why not get bigger and more physical on offense? Realistically we’re not going to beat the Chiefs or Bills at their own game so zigging when everyone else is zagging seems pretty smart.

And on defense you’ve got a good pass rush with long, physical corners that if they develop are going to be great at disrupting timing.

 

[Peat]

Maulet being released is kind of weird. I guess the guy they signed from the Vikings is their new slot corner but they have no one behind him.

I feel a little nonplussed in that pass coverage duties in the centre of the field is absolutely the weakest part of the team and I don't like seeing them subtract from it, but at the same time Maulet leaving is just another bad answer going, so who cares?

I'm wondering how often we'll see 3 Safety looks with a Safety playing NCB, or Peterson playing inside with Wallace/Witherspoon/Porter manning the boundary.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Maulet being released is kind of weird. I guess the guy they signed from the Vikings is their new slot corner but they have no one behind him.

In Khan We Trust.

 

[Pengwins]

Maulet sucked. I always criticized him

 

[JTG]

If they're drafting high enough to be looking at those guys they need to be looking at QBs instead.

Totally valid. I guess I'm kind of a predicting another 500 season and this class has some high end players other than tackle.

 

[pistolpete11]

I don't want sink or swim with him, but I think he can be potentially great.

To my mind, if the mindset is not seeing the guy being significantly better than Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill, then the logical thing to do is want to find out as quickly as possible. I don't see the point of being patient and slow with someone who's not good enough. Who cares if you make the next Dalton bust through impatience?

I also think that in terms of a comparison with Big Ben, then... tbh, I think it makes sense to compare him to the other QBs around today rather than to Big Ben. Forget the different era of football bit - we're talking a guy with Hall of Fame traits who didn't start playing QB until his last year of High School. That's kind of unique. I'm not sure that's a useful barometer

Looking at other recent Y2 QBs, excluding near slam dunk guys, around the league -

Tagovailoa threw 32.8 passes per game his 11 full games in Y2.
Mac Jones threw 31.6 passes per game
Jalen Hurts threw 28.8 passes in Y2 after being a near total redshirt in Y1.
Josh Allen threw 28.8 passes per game in Y2, and that's as the biggest success in terms of raw traits to real starter in near forever

I feel like its fair to ask Pickett to do the same as them. I don't see the advantages of asking him to do less.

So, yeah, 25-30 can work. I'm personally putting it at around 27-33. I compare Pickett to other rookie QBs and I think that, given his greater level of college experience and prior experience with his OC's concepts, I'm happier putting him on an accelerated course of running things and being the guy. I also think given that he looked fairly comfortable throwing 27-30 times a game after the bye, I'm happy with him at that level.



I would also add that in general, I firmly believe this team needs an offence that has a chance if it gets into a shootout with an elite offence. I don't think there's a SB chance without it. We've been over this a ton in general in this thread, and I get you can't just install it right away, but I want that to be the destination and I don't think they get there without continuing to move to it.

I don't think they need to be having Pickett 35-40 times a game to get there, but they do need to keep challenging him. I agree the next growth point should be in throwing deeper more regularly rather than throwing more often. I think we can all agree there.



If they're drafting high enough to be looking at those guys they need to be looking at QBs instead.

Tua
30+ attempts : 3-4
<30 attempts : 4-0

Jones
30+ attempts : 6-6 (Funny enough, 4 of these games he had exactly 30 attempts, 3-1 in those games)
<30 attempts : 3-1

Hurts
30+ attempts : 2-4
<30 attempts : 6-3

Allen
30+ attempts : 5-3
<30 attempts : 6-1



I'll give you Allen even though his record with <30 passes was better, but these other guys weren't out there slinging it around winning games. They were throwing because they were losing (or I guess potentially losing because they were throwing too much). As I said a while back, you're inevitably going to fall behind sometimes and are going to have to throw to catch up which will raise the season average. The game plan is typically to not fall behind, though, so again, the plan should be around 25 times.


Also, how he looked after the bye needs to be tempered given the strength of schedule.

 

[Andy99]

Tua
30+ attempts : 3-4
<30 attempts : 4-0

Jones
30+ attempts : 6-6 (Funny enough, 4 of these games he had exactly 30 attempts, 3-1 in those games)
<30 attempts : 3-1

Hurts
30+ attempts : 2-4
<30 attempts : 6-3

Allen
30+ attempts : 5-3
<30 attempts : 6-1



I'll give you Allen even though his record with <30 passes was better, but these other guys weren't out there slinging it around winning games. They were throwing because they were losing (or I guess potentially losing because they were throwing too much). As I said a while back, you're inevitably going to fall behind sometimes and are going to have to throw to catch up which will raise the season average. The game plan is typically to not fall behind, though, so again, the plan should be around 25 times.


Also, how he looked after the bye needs to be tempered given the strength of schedule.

yes, it’s almost like if not you’re one of the best QBs in the league, you’re better off attempting fewer passes…who would’ve thought lol…pretty clear that the Steelers are gearing up for Pickett to throw fewer passes because they don’t think they have a top 5-10 or whatever QB in the league…

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

So all of those people who crucified Matt Azaria before having all the evidence, please come forward. There have now been 3 people in the NFL who were railroaded with false rape charges

Brian Banks and Matt Boermeester being the others.

Witness says Araiza not present for alleged rape

Matt Araiza was not present when an alleged gang rape of a minor occurred at an October 2021 party, according to witness testimony included in evidence that prompted prosecutors to not press charges against the former Bills punter.

www.espn.com

 

[Peat]

Tua
30+ attempts : 3-4
<30 attempts : 4-0

Jones
30+ attempts : 6-6 (Funny enough, 4 of these games he had exactly 30 attempts, 3-1 in those games)
<30 attempts : 3-1

Hurts
30+ attempts : 2-4
<30 attempts : 6-3

Allen
30+ attempts : 5-3
<30 attempts : 6-1



I'll give you Allen even though his record with <30 passes was better, but these other guys weren't out there slinging it around winning games. They were throwing because they were losing (or I guess potentially losing because they were throwing too much). As I said a while back, you're inevitably going to fall behind sometimes and are going to have to throw to catch up which will raise the season average. The game plan is typically to not fall behind, though, so again, the plan should be around 25 times.


Also, how he looked after the bye needs to be tempered given the strength of schedule.

Good stats.

I'd agree that in an ideal world, things are going well and you don't ask Kenny to do much.

Way I'd put it though is I want them to have a plan for it going wrong, because it usually does, and I want that plan to include Kenny throwing the ball. Not insane amounts, but don't turtle up and hope the run game can do everything.

Totally valid. I guess I'm kind of a predicting another 500 season and this class has some high end players other than tackle.

They're talking up the strength of this class at the top a ton, but I work on the assumption the OTs always go early.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

I feel a little nonplussed in that pass coverage duties in the centre of the field is absolutely the weakest part of the team and I don't like seeing them subtract from it, but at the same time Maulet leaving is just another bad answer going, so who cares?

I'm wondering how often we'll see 3 Safety looks with a Safety playing NCB, or Peterson playing inside with Wallace/Witherspoon/Porter manning the boundary.

Brooke Pryor
@bepryor

Versatile CB Art Maulet asked for his release from the Steelers, and it was granted, source confirms. Maulet spent the last two seasons in Pittsburgh — played in 33 games with 8 starts — and was especially productive in 2022 with 59 tackles, 2 sacks and an interception.

11:53 AM · May 10, 2023

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

So all of those people who crucified Matt Azaria before having all the evidence, please come forward. There have now been 3 people in the NFL who were railroaded with false rape charges

Brian Banks and Matt Boermeester being the others.

Witness says Araiza not present for alleged rape

Matt Araiza was not present when an alleged gang rape of a minor occurred at an October 2021 party, according to witness testimony included in evidence that prompted prosecutors to not press charges against the former Bills punter.

www.espn.com

Caping up for someone who admitted to statutory rape?

Because theres no direct evidence he took part in a worse crime?

At best its still a he said she said, toss up. A witness saying X left around 12:30 is hardly rock solid. Its enough for reasonable doubt in a criminal case, but i wouldn't bet anything that mattered to me on it.

 

[JTG]

Good stats.

I'd agree that in an ideal world, things are going well and you don't ask Kenny to do much.

Way I'd put it though is I want them to have a plan for it going wrong, because it usually does, and I want that plan to include Kenny throwing the ball. Not insane amounts, but don't turtle up and hope the run game can do everything.



They're talking up the strength of this class at the top a ton, but I work on the assumption the OTs always go early.

Those two will. I can't see enough players out playing them. I expect both to be top 10.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Caping up for someone who admitted to statutory rape?

Because theres no direct evidence he took part in a worse crime?

At best its still a he said she said, toss up. A witness saying X left around 12:30 is hardly rock solid. Its enough for reasonable doubt in a criminal case, but i wouldn't bet anything that mattered to me on it.

“A witness who was in the house gave a statement saying that at — at least one point in the party, that you made a statement telling people at the party you were 18,” Amador explained to the accuser. “Another witness at the party, a different one, says that they specifically heard you say you were 18 …”

There was additional evidence cited by Amador from a recording from a party the night before at a different residence in which the girl says on camera that she is 18.

The civil lawsuit alleged that soon after the girl’s arrival at the party, she was separated from her friends, and Araiza led her “over to the side yard of the house, where he told her to perform” sex against her consent.

Araiza, however, has always maintained that he never led her into a private area of the backyard, that she walked back there while he was urinating.

Witness testimony, again including the girl’s friends, played a role in prosecutors declining to press charges.

“The witnesses say … that shortly after you arrived at the party, you left and came back shortly thereafter,” Amador said. “And you told [a friend], ‘I just had sex.’ ... You didn’t appear unhappy. You appeared to be having fun and that the encounter on the side of the house with Matt, suspect Araiza, was consensual."

Amador explained to the girl that additional witness testimony alleged that at this period of time, “you were approaching men at the party saying, ‘I want you to [expletive] me, and if you don’t [expletive] me, you’re a [expletive].”

She was telling everyone she was 18. She was on camera bragging that she just banged a guy, and she was apparently soliciting for sex the entire night.

If our standard for players is 'we can't look at anyone who hooked up with a chick at a college party who said she was 18' then we need to cut everyone on the team. And that would also mean that 90% of the people on this forum would fall into that category.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

She was telling everyone she was 18. She was on camera bragging that she just banged a guy, and she was apparently soliciting for sex the entire night.

If our standard for players is 'we can't look at anyone who hooked up with a chick at a college party who said she was 18' then we need to cut everyone on the team. And that would also mean that 90% of the people on this forum would fall into that category.

Thats the best case scenario.

And whether she lied about her age and was soliciting is irrelevant. She was underage.

Best case hes a moron, who had sex with an underage girl.

Worst case, the witness is wrong or lied and not only did he have sex with an underage girl he took hinto a room to be gang raped.

Let me ask you this:

If you were hiring someone for a job and one applicant fit that scenario and another qualified candidate didn't. Which one are you hiring?

I do agree with people jumping to conclusions of guilt isnt a good way to go about things either but this guy fall somewhere between negligent idiot to callously evil.

Im not shedding a tear for him either way.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Thats the best case scenario.

And whether she lied about her age and was soliciting is irrelevant. She was underage.

Best case hes a moron, who had sex with an underage girl.

Worst case, the witness is wrong or lied and not only did he have sex with an underage girl he took hinto a room to be gang raped.

Let me ask you this:

If you were hiring someone for a job and one applicant fit that scenario and another qualified candidate didn't. Which one are you hiring?

I do agree with people jumping to conclusions of guilt isnt a good way to go about things either but this guy fall somewhere between negligent idiot to callously evil.

Im not shedding a tear for him either way.

He admitted having relations (oral) with this woman. Obviously illegal due to Cali's age of consent. That is a fact.
He was long gone after the gang rape occurred. That is also a fact.

When interviewing people who state they have a conviction, I ask them the circumstances of what happened and I measure their remorsefulness. Having sex with a 17 yo is different than a 15 yo and I'd feel differently about whichever facts are revealed.

Considering the circumstances, I'm not going to skewer the guy because your standard is that he should have asked for ID. I mean seriously, who all here has asked for ID before hooking up with a girl? I doubt I'll see many hands.

So I guess you can put me down for being a negligent idiot along with probably 99% of NFL players and 90% of this forum who did the same things in college. So should they be out of jobs too?

This dude would not even be part of the discussion if not for a couple factors:

1) He was at a party where some bad shit went down and he was part of the vortex
2) He's semi-famous

If the Steelers hired him, I'd have no moral issues with it.