OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Super Bowl? Thats like a giant pot of chips or popcorn right?

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Someone mentioned "identity" and while I don't agree with the "pound the rock" mantra, at least we can now say what we are. The past 3+ seasons, does anyone know what this team's offensive or defensive identity was? I sure don't.

So I'm glad we're good at something and that should be running the ball and stopping the run. Throwing it and stopping the pass remain to be seen. But baby steps in this rebuild are to be expected...

I'm all for the bully ball they want to play, I just want them to be a versatile offense.

Pound the ball when they want, run 5 wide no huddle if they get down or want to surprise a team, etc etc.

Don't get fixated on only playing one way.

 

[pistolpete11]

There needs to be some level of balance, but I think they need to lean heavy on running the ball.

Kind of similar to the 2005 Steelers. They lead the league in rushing attempts and finished 5th in rushing yards. They only finished 24th in passing yards, but they finished 3rd in net yards/attempt and 12th in passing TD. So very much a run-first team, but made big plays in the passing game.

Between a young QB and questionable WR, I just don't think they have the roster to be throwing much more than 20-25 times a game.

 

[Peat]

There needs to be some level of balance, but I think they need to lean heavy on running the ball.

Kind of similar to the 2005 Steelers. They lead the league in rushing attempts and finished 5th in rushing yards. They only finished 24th in passing yards, but they finished 3rd in net yards/attempt and 12th in passing TD. So very much a run-first team, but made big plays in the passing game.

Between a young QB and questionable WR, I just don't think they have the roster to be throwing much more than 20-25 times a game.

That equals the third fewest throws in the NFL last season. The teams who did worse finished bottom and 8th from bottom. I don't think we should be questioning the WRs that much.

That said the general idea of run a ton but look for explosive plays when passing is good. That's the 49ers and Eagles model. Run and pass pretty equally, top 5 for NY/A, top 5 for 1st downs by rushing and rushing touchdowns. They're both about 30-30 for run and pass. That seems the ideal.

The only flaw is I'm not sure we've got the guys for a super explosive attack. Pickett's not the world's biggest arm, we've only got one big speedster and he's a question mark, none of our guys (save maybe Harris) make a ton of guys miss. Throw in Canada and I don't think we're going to inspire a lot of respect there. But they've to try. Even if it's just targeting all those big targets in the intermediate area.

 

[Flying Dego]

That equals the third fewest throws in the NFL last season. The teams who did worse finished bottom and 8th from bottom. I don't think we should be questioning the WRs that much.

That said the general idea of run a ton but look for explosive plays when passing is good. That's the 49ers and Eagles model. Run and pass pretty equally, top 5 for NY/A, top 5 for 1st downs by rushing and rushing touchdowns. They're both about 30-30 for run and pass. That seems the ideal.

The only flaw is I'm not sure we've got the guys for a super explosive attack. Pickett's not the world's biggest arm, we've only got one big speedster and he's a question mark, none of our guys (save maybe Harris) make a ton of guys miss. Throw in Canada and I don't think we're going to inspire a lot of respect there. But they've to try. Even if it's just targeting all those big targets in the intermediate area.

The main focus this year is they need to have a wide open playbook for KP. The guy is 25 and someone who's started a lot of games in college and now a year of pro ball. He's had the offseason. I'll be livid if they play complete small ball and don't allow risk.

You're on the money, they need to follow the Niners/Eagles style as much as possible. We need a run game that is commanding but KP has to be allowed the opportunity to push the play.

When I clamored for us to nab Washington (still pumped we got him) I envisioned us bolstering the protection/run game. Then trotting out two threatening TEs (a la the old Pats) and just carving teams in the intermediate pass game.

I sure hope Washington is what I think he is. Teams are gonna hate covering Friar and him...

 

[pistolpete11]

That equals the third fewest throws in the NFL last season. The teams who did worse finished bottom and 8th from bottom. I don't think we should be questioning the WRs that much.

That said the general idea of run a ton but look for explosive plays when passing is good. That's the 49ers and Eagles model. Run and pass pretty equally, top 5 for NY/A, top 5 for 1st downs by rushing and rushing touchdowns. They're both about 30-30 for run and pass. That seems the ideal.

The only flaw is I'm not sure we've got the guys for a super explosive attack. Pickett's not the world's biggest arm, we've only got one big speedster and he's a question mark, none of our guys (save maybe Harris) make a ton of guys miss. Throw in Canada and I don't think we're going to inspire a lot of respect there. But they've to try. Even if it's just targeting all those big targets in the intermediate area.

The season average would be slightly higher because there will inevitably be games they fall behind or the running game isn't working or whatever else happens. But yeah, when you look back on a game and think "Man, everything was going our way today", I think that's throwing the ball 20-25 times.

 

[Peat]

The season average would be slightly higher because there will inevitably be games they fall behind or the running game isn't working or whatever else happens. But yeah, when you look back on a game and think "Man, everything was going our way today", I think that's throwing the ball 20-25 times.

But is that "everything went our way so we didn't need to throw the ball" or "because we didn't throw the ball, everything went our way"?

Because I don't feel like the latter happens very often.



Also, anything else apart... if you're not comfy with Pickett as a 24 year old guy with 10 NFL starts throwing to Muth, DJ, Pickens, Harris/Warren, when would you be comfortable? Because to me that looks like at least an average receiving corps and if a Y2 QB can't be trusted throwing to that, I'd like to find out so they can look at drafting his replacement.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Gotta turn Kenny loose.

 

[Flying Dego]

Vegas betting odds for the AFC North has us insanely lower than the rest. Apparently people are really smitten with Jackson and Watson...

I'm interested to see this year play out bc I still feel like as a team we are solid. The thing that transcends us to a threat is KP progression and Canada having passing plays beyond the sticks.

 

[Pens1566]

Vegas betting odds for the AFC North has us insanely lower than the rest. Apparently people are really smitten with Jackson and Watson...

I'm interested to see this year play out bc I still feel like as a team we are solid. The thing that transcends us to a threat is KP progression and Canada having passing plays beyond the sticks.

There isn't a ton of faith in Pickett.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I think people like Pickett but they don't see him as a star, Tannehill mold, where as they see Watson, Jackson and Burrow as stars. Thus that equals the worst odds.

Honestly, they aren't incorrect until KP shows he can be a true franchise QB.

 

[Captain Hook]

Yeah, I think the reason we're not picked to finish higher in the division is simply that the question has yet to be answered at QB for our team (Steelers). I think Pickett has underrated ability based on what I saw last season and may have a little higher ceiling than I originally thought but he hasn't put it all together yet and maybe never will. The questions remain with him until he proves he's the guy.

Bengals obviously sit alone atop our division with their QB position being the most stable. Ravens and Browns do have questions at QB. Jackson is very injury prone due to playing style and the Browns have to hope Watson finds his old form and doesn't remain the shell of his former self that he looked like last season. The difference for now is both Jackson and Watson have shown in the past they can be franchise QB's in the league. The jury is still out on Pickett.

 

[Power Surge]

Just continue to build a solid team around Pickett, he'll be fine. He doesn't need to be a star, just consistent.

He does need a NFL caliber coordinator which he doesn't have right now.

 

[JTG]

I think it's kind of crazy how people write Kenny off. I remember something very similar happening to Brees in San Diego. Too small. Not enough arm strength. I wasn't a huge Kenny fan at Pitt. He really earned my respect by coming into a horrible situation after getting no meaningful reps in camp, and he just took control.

I think Kenny probably settles around a Cousins trajectory (which is still pretty good), but I wouldn't write him off being a top 10 QB with the weapons that surround him. He needs to take care of the ball. That's the biggest thing from college and now in the pros - he has to make better decisions with the ball and live to fight another day.

 

[Flying Dego]

I think it's kind of crazy how people write Kenny off. I remember something very similar happening to Brees in San Diego. Too small. Not enough arm strength. I wasn't a huge Kenny fan at Pitt. He really earned my respect by coming into a horrible situation after getting no meaningful reps in camp, and he just took control.

I think Kenny probably settles around a Cousins trajectory (which is still pretty good), but I wouldn't write him off being a top 10 QB with the weapons that surround him. He needs to take care of the ball. That's the biggest thing from college and now in the pros - he has to make better decisions with the ball and live to fight another day.

While I agree with your last paragraph on him improving decision making...what you said is my fear with the coaching staff. That they put him in a bubble and don't let him make mistakes to grow. The last thing I want to see is another year of only screens and dump offs. He needs passing plays that attack the defense.

Canada still remains my biggest concern above all.

 

[Flying Dego]

There isn't a ton of faith in Pickett.

Let's be real though. Above this question mark the actual indicator of the Steelers winning or losing is a healthy Watt.

Still crazy we are a .690 win pctg when Watt plays.

 

[pistolpete11]

But is that "everything went our way so we didn't need to throw the ball" or "because we didn't throw the ball, everything went our way"?

Because I don't feel like the latter happens very often.



Also, anything else apart... if you're not comfy with Pickett as a 24 year old guy with 10 NFL starts throwing to Muth, DJ, Pickens, Harris/Warren, when would you be comfortable? Because to me that looks like at least an average receiving corps and if a Y2 QB can't be trusted throwing to that, I'd like to find out so they can look at drafting his replacement.

The gameplan going in should be to throw the ball 20-25 times.

I don't know if I'll ever be comfortable with Pickett throwing 30-40-50 times a game because....

I think people like Pickett but they don't see him as a star, Tannehill mold, where as they see Watson, Jackson and Burrow as stars. Thus that equals the worst odds.

Honestly, they aren't incorrect until KP shows he can be a true franchise QB.

...I'm one of these people.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Steelers just will not compete in the AFC for the next decade if KP/pass game can’t carve up a defense without having it schemed up. I’m hopeful he’s the guy and I think he has it in him but he’s gotta show that this season.

All good with a run oriented approach in general and I don’t think you can win in the NFL without a good run game. But on passing plays and downs they need to cut KP loose and let him rip it. Let him develop and see what he’s got.

Easy guy to root for and because of that I hope like hell he’s the franchise QB for the next decade… but it’s a lot better to find out he’s not and be able to look for the next QB than be in QB purgatory imo.

 

[Peat]

The gameplan going in should be to throw the ball 20-25 times.

I don't know if I'll ever be comfortable with Pickett throwing 30-40-50 times a game because....


...I'm one of these people.

Then make him throw and find out whether you're right or wrong. If you're wrong, then franchise QB found. If you're right, he'll suck, but at least we'll draft high and can take a shot on a different guy. Better to suck and find the future than hang around in pugatory

I get doubting the guy. I believe he has a higher ceiling than you seem to do, but that's just a matter of opinion and he's got to make it anyway.

I don't get wanting to baby him. If he's not good enough, find out, get rid, try again. If I'm misunderstanding and you think he can be the guy just they've got to keep going slow then fair enough but I disagree. I think he's got to keep pushing what he can do, not do less.

The median number of throws per game last was 33.59 (we were one of the teams getting that). The gameplan needs to be built around the assumption that will be necessary and there's no problem asking the QB to do that. If he can't, bye. I don't see any other way for it to be.

 

[xlm34]

I think you absolutely should open up the playbook next year for Pickett, but I don’t think you should really ever go into a game with the intention of having him throw the ball 35-40 times. He’s going to inevitably get experience doing so because shootouts are bound to happen, so you’ll get your answer whether he’s capable of winning those types of games.

I get that eventually he’s going to have to go toe to toe against Mahomes if they want to actually contend, but you’re just not going to win a back and forth, high scoring game against the Chiefs.

 

[pistolpete11]

Then make him throw and find out whether you're right or wrong. If you're wrong, then franchise QB found. If you're right, he'll suck, but at least we'll draft high and can take a shot on a different guy. Better to suck and find the future than hang around in pugatory

I get doubting the guy. I believe he has a higher ceiling than you seem to do, but that's just a matter of opinion and he's got to make it anyway.

I don't get wanting to baby him. If he's not good enough, find out, get rid, try again. If I'm misunderstanding and you think he can be the guy just they've got to keep going slow then fair enough but I disagree. I think he's got to keep pushing what he can do, not do less.

The median number of throws per game last was 33.59 (we were one of the teams getting that). The gameplan needs to be built around the assumption that will be necessary and there's no problem asking the QB to do that. If he can't, bye. I don't see any other way for it to be.

The only game he won last year when he threw more than 33 times was against the Rams, though.

20 might be too low. Might be more like 25-30, so I'll revise my statement and say to target 25+/- attempts.

I think the fundamental difference we have is that I don't think you need to throw the ball 30+ times to win. I think you can still win with a run-first offense, make plays in the passing game when needed, and good defense. I agree with people saying they need to loosen the reins a bit, but to me that's more in the type of passes he's making, not the number of passes he's making.

I also don't understand the need to throw him into a sink or swim situation. Ben was obviously babied in his first 2 years, but the only season in his first 5 where he averaged more than 30 attempts was 2006 when he went 7-8 and was playing from behind more. It was also probably the worst season of his career. It wasn't until after the second Super Bowl where he started slinging it around more. The game's changed some since then, but I also don't think they should be asking him to do what a HoF'er did either.

 

[Flying Dego]

Then make him throw and find out whether you're right or wrong. If you're wrong, then franchise QB found. If you're right, he'll suck, but at least we'll draft high and can take a shot on a different guy. Better to suck and find the future than hang around in pugatory

I get doubting the guy. I believe he has a higher ceiling than you seem to do, but that's just a matter of opinion and he's got to make it anyway.

I don't get wanting to baby him. If he's not good enough, find out, get rid, try again. If I'm misunderstanding and you think he can be the guy just they've got to keep going slow then fair enough but I disagree. I think he's got to keep pushing what he can do, not do less.

The median number of throws per game last was 33.59 (we were one of the teams getting that). The gameplan needs to be built around the assumption that will be necessary and there's no problem asking the QB to do that. If he can't, bye. I don't see any other way for it to be.

I agree not babying him..you need to start figuring out what he is. The guy is 25...it'd be different if he had limited experience and was 22 or something.

There's no reason he can't be in the 30-35 average like the rest. The only way I am ok with him going under 30 is if Najee decides he's a star and has a monster season.

That's unlikely. So let's have a balanced attack but I swear if I have to watch more inneffective short ball that results in a punt fest....

 

[Goalie_Bob]

In the 10 games that KP played in the whole game he averaged 35.7 attempts per game. Thus, I believe we are discussing a non issue.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Pickett was one of the worst rated quarterbacks in the NFL last year. Yes, he improved as the year went on, but the Steeler's win streak at the end of the year was mostly against weak non-playoff teams. They had one of the weakest schedules in the league the second half of the year.

So basically, KP did make improvements. He made progress. But the doubts about him, and the Canada run offense, has some real underpinnings and both will have to prove it.

Until they do, I don't blame anyone for the questioning. It is not an insult but reality.

 

[Power Surge]

I think it's kind of crazy how people write Kenny off. I remember something very similar happening to Brees in San Diego. Too small. Not enough arm strength. I wasn't a huge Kenny fan at Pitt. He really earned my respect by coming into a horrible situation after getting no meaningful reps in camp, and he just took control.

I think Kenny probably settles around a Cousins trajectory (which is still pretty good), but I wouldn't write him off being a top 10 QB with the weapons that surround him. He needs to take care of the ball. That's the biggest thing from college and now in the pros - he has to make better decisions with the ball and live to fight another day.

I agree. You can win a Super Bowl with a Cousins, you just have to have a solid team with solid coaching around him.

 

[Captain Hook]

I know it's a bit ridiculous to suggest he was really the second best QB in the NFL over that time. PFF grades are flawed and I think even they admit that but it's still a bit of evidence that Pickett was at least getting much better down the stretch. Schedule got easier etc. I know but he made some progress. Hopefully he keeps getting better.

I really like Pickett's dedication and maturity. I do think he'll maximize his potential because of those qualities.