OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Super Bowl? Thats like a giant pot of chips or popcorn right?

[OnMyOwn]

I don't really recall the Steelers giving Pickens much attention last year, either. I also don't really put much stock into pre-draft dinners and meetings being an indication of much. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors with the draft. IIRC, for months every talking head thought Tomlin was for sure going to take Malik Willis, but what came of that? He wasn't taken till the middle of the 3rd round by the Titans.

I would wager if Addison is there he gets taken just on his rapport with Pickett alone. JSN as well.

Personally, I'm hoping an OT falls to 17.

One of the Steelers coaches put Pickens through drills at his pro day. They paid attention to him.

 

[Peat]

I don't really recall the Steelers giving Pickens much attention last year, either. I also don't really put much stock into pre-draft dinners and meetings being an indication of much. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors with the draft. IIRC, for months every talking head thought Tomlin was for sure going to take Malik Willis, but what came of that? He wasn't taken till the middle of the 3rd round by the Titans.

I would wager if Addison is there he gets taken just on his rapport with Pickett alone. JSN as well.

Personally, I'm hoping an OT falls to 17.

There's smoke and mirrors, but there's also a long and notable history of Steelers' picks being guys they showed a bunch of interest in. Tomlin and Colbert were at Pickens pro day and while that could just be that it was Georgia's, there was also WR coach Frisman Jackson who put Pickens through a workout. DL coach Karl Dunbar was at Leal's pro day and both Mark Robinson & Oladokun had pre-draft visits. Austin was the only one who only just had a scout there.

Go back to 2021 and beyond Harris and Freiermuth both having visits and the position coach at their pro day, you have the OL coach at Kendrick Green's day, the OC and assistant OL coach at Dan Moore's, and the ST co-ordinator at Harvin's. No special attention to Buddy Johnson, Tre Norwood, or Loudermilk.

It isn't news that you can generally see the Steelers' interest in their draft picks pre-draft. It's not really there with the WRs. It'd be a surprise.

 

[DanielPlainview]

It would not be a surprise. There's a clear roster hole at the position: Calvin Austin cannot be an every down player, questions remain about DJ long term (who would be in his last year of his current deal in 2024), and Allen Robinson is about to be 30 - not a long term fix of anything other than depth. Even if we make assumptions about those 4, there's a 5th (or 6th depending on how many WR they want to carry) spot available for a rookie to step in.

There's clearly not a huge correlation between the amount of time the team spends drilling or wining and dining a guy and whether they draft him -- they do give some extra attention, but they don't end up drafting them, and vice versa.

Their draft board is anyone's guess but it would be more surprising if they passed on a guy like Addison than not.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Robinson is probably going fill the big slot Claypool was supposed to fill. They will probably draft wr on day 3 and bring in a few udfa but I think TE is higher on their list. They will use more 2 te less 3 wr

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Still think WR (and/or TE) makes a lot of sense in the draft, even with a high pick.

AR is experienced depth but not much more, even if he crushes all expectations he’s gone next year and they’re gonna want a contingency plan for DJ.

I really think you can make a logical case for any position that’s not QB or RB early in this draft.

 

[Peat]

It would not be a surprise. There's a clear roster hole at the position: Calvin Austin cannot be an every down player, questions remain about DJ long term (who would be in his last year of his current deal in 2024), and Allen Robinson is about to be 30 - not a long term fix of anything other than depth. Even if we make assumptions about those 4, there's a 5th (or 6th depending on how many WR they want to carry) spot available for a rookie to step in.

There's clearly not a huge correlation between the amount of time the team spends drilling or wining and dining a guy and whether they draft him -- they do give some extra attention, but they don't end up drafting them, and vice versa.

Their draft board is anyone's guess but it would be more surprising if they passed on a guy like Addison than not.

The HC or GM have been to the Pro Day of all Steelers first rounders since 2010

Excluding 2020 due to Covid, the position coach or higher has been at the pro day of all 2nd and 3rd rounders going back to 2018, when Okorafor only got an area scout.

There is a huge correlation between early Steelers draft picks and the attention paid to them in the draft process.

But right now Jackson-Njigba is the only WR that had the HC/GM there. WR Coach didn't watch anyone meaningful. Weidl went to see Hyatt and Parker Washington (and neither were the biggest names at their pro days for).

Maybe Khan is going to be different. Maybe they're running an epic smokescreen. But historically, the Steelers' actions here would be super clear.

 

[Peat]

Still think WR (and/or TE) makes a lot of sense in the draft, even with a high pick.

AR is experienced depth but not much more, even if he crushes all expectations he’s gone next year and they’re gonna want a contingency plan for DJ.

I really think you can make a logical case for any position that’s not QB or RB early in this draft.

I am pro more weapons.

I don't think the team seem terribly interested in doing it high. They've looked at a bunch of guys you'd expect to be there in the 4th round. That's about it.

As for contingency plans for DJ, Robinson not being much more and so on...

Lets assume WR1 gets DJ's 8.6 targets a game and WR2 gets the 6 a game Claypool was getting. That's 249 targets accounted for. Say the TEs and Harris/Warren get theirs.

So, remaining WR and Snell/McFarland/Watt targets from last year gives you... 75 I think? I dunno how many more times we're expecting Pickett to throw, but we're talking some real slim pickings for WR3 and below. If Robinson's good, he gets 50 of them. If he's not, or if Austin breaks through, maybe he gets 30. That's the share open to any new WR. That's not really worth taking a WR for high next year. And yeah, I get we're talking a multiple year investment but you can make it next year. If you cut DJ next year you can throw a pile of money at a WR in FA/trade next year.

And this year isn't all that great for WRs at the top. Sure, if JSN is there at 32 and they're ignoring him for whoever I might have questions... but how likely is that this year when he's close to the consensus top WR? Wait for a strong year and you can get Pickens in the late 2nd, or go for a weaker year and maybe use 17 on JSN? Seems an easy one to me.

 

[JTG]

Robinson is probably going fill the big slot Claypool was supposed to fill. They will probably draft wr on day 3 and bring in a few udfa but I think TE is higher on their list. They will use more 2 te less 3 wr

This would be a great draft to snag a top flight TE to pair with Muth

 

[bigdaddyk88]

This would be a great draft to snag a top flight TE to pair with Muth

Especially with his concussion issues

 

[Pengwins]

I like the trade but would have rather kept Sims

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

It would not be a surprise. There's a clear roster hole at the position: Calvin Austin cannot be an every down player, questions remain about DJ long term (who would be in his last year of his current deal in 2024), and Allen Robinson is about to be 30 - not a long term fix of anything other than depth. Even if we make assumptions about those 4, there's a 5th (or 6th depending on how many WR they want to carry) spot available for a rookie to step in.

There's clearly not a huge correlation between the amount of time the team spends drilling or wining and dining a guy and whether they draft him -- they do give some extra attention, but they don't end up drafting them, and vice versa.

Their draft board is anyone's guess but it would be more surprising if they passed on a guy like Addison than not.

Yea their history shows the correlation between pro visits/dinners/etc. This isn't even a debate.

If you want to propose that maybe they'll change tactics with the new regime, ok that's a wait and see. But they've been pretty predictable in terms of who they spend time with and their consequent draft picks

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Still think WR (and/or TE) makes a lot of sense in the draft, even with a high pick.

AR is experienced depth but not much more, even if he crushes all expectations he’s gone next year and they’re gonna want a contingency plan for DJ.

I really think you can make a logical case for any position that’s not QB or RB early in this draft.

TE- maybe
But with WR they're fairly set; might take a mid to late round player

Looks like they'll keep DJ for the season (which I think is extremely wise). If DJ crashes and burns again, then they'll look to trade him and we'll be discussing WR very high next draft

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

I like the trade but would have rather kept Sims

Why? Special teams?

 

[Flying Dego]

Still think WR (and/or TE) makes a lot of sense in the draft, even with a high pick.

AR is experienced depth but not much more, even if he crushes all expectations he’s gone next year and they’re gonna want a contingency plan for DJ.

I really think you can make a logical case for any position that’s not QB or RB early in this draft.

I'd absolutely love a TE to compliment Muth. When I look at us competing....are we going to out throw Burrow and the Bengals? No.

So why not go old Patriots style. 2 mismatch TEs. If we build our line up and get a run game + 2 TEs that can gash you for medium range + Pickens as the deep threat. I see that as the premium way to build up KP.

Give him safety valves.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I am pro more weapons.

I don't think the team seem terribly interested in doing it high. They've looked at a bunch of guys you'd expect to be there in the 4th round. That's about it.

As for contingency plans for DJ, Robinson not being much more and so on...

Lets assume WR1 gets DJ's 8.6 targets a game and WR2 gets the 6 a game Claypool was getting. That's 249 targets accounted for. Say the TEs and Harris/Warren get theirs.

So, remaining WR and Snell/McFarland/Watt targets from last year gives you... 75 I think? I dunno how many more times we're expecting Pickett to throw, but we're talking some real slim pickings for WR3 and below. If Robinson's good, he gets 50 of them. If he's not, or if Austin breaks through, maybe he gets 30. That's the share open to any new WR. That's not really worth taking a WR for high next year. And yeah, I get we're talking a multiple year investment but you can make it next year. If you cut DJ next year you can throw a pile of money at a WR in FA/trade next year.

And this year isn't all that great for WRs at the top. Sure, if JSN is there at 32 and they're ignoring him for whoever I might have questions... but how likely is that this year when he's close to the consensus top WR? Wait for a strong year and you can get Pickens in the late 2nd, or go for a weaker year and maybe use 17 on JSN? Seems an easy one to me.

Yeah I mean it’s not a need. If you pencil 30 targets a game and 510 targets for the season, 350 to DJ/Pickens/Pat (20+ per game) and another 100 to the RBs that’s about 60 left for backup WRs and TEs which is tiny.

My post is more about getting the best player. All things equal the best player at OT or CB is best case. But in 3-5 years give me superstar game tilting WR or EDGE or IOL over serviceable CB/OT. Just saying that bringing in Robinson or any other mid level vet shouldn’t change anything on draft front.

I also think a top OT or CB could struggle too, and the non top guys even moreso. Those are really hard positions with typically steep learning curves. So idk how much you’re giving up in year 1 even if the JSN/Addison/Mayer/whoever doesn’t catch 80 balls, or if the EDGE doesn’t see a ton of snaps. Also injuries do happen.

Long story short basically position should be a tiebreaker for BPA imo. I can’t predict who that will be; but if you could predict the future and told me “Kincaid is going to be Kittle 2.0” I wouldn’t avoid him because of targets in year 1.

TE- maybe
But with WR they're fairly set; might take a mid to late round player

Looks like they'll keep DJ for the season (which I think is extremely wise). If DJ crashes and burns again, then they'll look to trade him and we'll be discussing WR very high next draft

you could say they’re covered at any position is kinda my point. So they need talent more than any one position in my opinion.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

you could say they’re covered at any position is kinda my point. So they need talent more than any one position in my opinion.

I disagree with that. I think the Dline is on the brink. They also have no EDGE guys behind Watt/Highsmith. Safety is open too.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I disagree with that. I think the Dline is on the brink. They also have no EDGE guys behind Watt/Highsmith. Safety is open too.

They are not set and they have needs (I agree DL is top of list) but are covered to the point where they don’t need to reach for any one position for solely the 2023-24 season if there’s more talent elsewhere imo.

 

[Pengwins]

Why? Special teams?

Yes. and he was pretty clutch as a receiver.

Relying too much on the midget who has never played

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Yes. and he was pretty clutch as a receiver.

Relying too much on the midget who has never played

I mean the midget is at best the #4.

Sims is fine for what he was, but he certainly is a very limited player.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

DL, they are covered for this coming season. Way more than OLB and CB. And I don't think they need to take a DL in the top 3 picks unless someone like Bresee slides to 32 or even 49. I think pick 80 is where they look to take a DL.

The #3 OLB will play 60-70% of the snaps in a season. There are two OLB, thus that adds up to 200% snaps. Then take off Watt at 70% and Highsmith at 70%. What is left is 60% of the snaps. They need a #3 OLB and they have nobody behind them. They will take one in the first 3 picks. I think the pick at 32 will be where they take one.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

DL, they are covered for this coming season.

I still take issue with this. Cam is ancient and if he goes down, there is a HUUUGE dropoff. Leal and Loudermilk need to take some major steps before I claim that the Dline is fine.

Right now I've seen nothing from either that indicates they aren't disappointments

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I still take issue with this. Cam is ancient and if he goes down, there is a HUUUGE dropoff. Leal and Loudermilk need to take some major steps before I claim that the Dline is fine.

Right now I've seen nothing from either that indicates they aren't disappointments

Covered as in they have players on the roster who can play snaps if asked. Who do they have at OLB behind Watt and Highsmith?

My point was that I don't think they will look to take a DL until after the first 3 picks. The DL players in this draft have a sweet spot between about pick 50 and 150.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Covered as in they have players on the roster who can play snaps if asked. Who do they have at OLB behind Watt and Highsmith?

My point was that I don't think they will look to take a DL until after the first 3 picks. The DL players in this draft have a sweet spot between about pick 50 and 150.

Yea I definitely agree that EDGE/OLB is even worse shape than Dline.

But I would not rule out them taking a Dline or EDGE person if the right person falls.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I like the trade but would have rather kept Sims

Sims is just an undersized journeyman with 14 catches last year and 70+ in his career.

AR isn't a gamebreaker anymore and won't be a star again, but he's going to help this team way more than Sims ever could have.

Granted it depends on his health so I'll concede that, but when healthy, he's a better version of JUJU IMHO.

Tough, versatile, big bodied guy with great hands that will make those massive third down catches when you need them over the middle, and can be a weapon in the red zone (f*** knows they need more help there).

Unless he went way down hill last year (didn't see him at all with Rams), he's going to make way more play than Sims.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Sims is just an undersized journeyman with 14 catches last year and 70+ in his career.

AR isn't a gamebreaker anymore and won't be a star again, but he's going to help this team way more than Sims ever could have.

Granted it depends on his health so I'll concede that, but when healthy, he's a better version of JUJU IMHO.

Tough, versatile, big bodied guy with great hands that will make those massive third down catches when you need them over the middle, and can be a weapon in the red zone (f*** knows they need more help there).

Unless he went way down hill last year (didn't see him at all with Rams), he's going to make way more play than Sims.

Yea Sims was a nice addition last year, but believe there are a ton of his type laying around waiting for a phone call. Robinson and Austin supplement this position just fine. They also have A Miller as a possibility too.