I honestly just buy the theory that it’s the hardest position in sports and there’s only so many guys on planet earth at a time to play it at a high level. Makes it impossible to scout unless they’re already in the league and obviously with the draft they’re not.
It’s pretty crazy when you think about it. QB needs to read a defense and throw a ball to moving target on a pinpoint location, while keeping an eye on massive humans that can fly trying to tackle him. He’s gotta navigate his own lineman while doing it. And 5 seconds is too slow.
There’s probably no rhyme or reason- doesn’t help that the teams who get it right don’t need to do it again for 15 years.
I think of the 2018 Draft as a good case study. Baker probably was the most productive of the bunch. Darnold the best combo of tools, tape and numbers. Rosen not far after him. Allen a complete project with a freaky arm. Then Lamar as another project with a freaky arm and legs and crazy production, but the tape was super raw QB wise. Allen and Jackson became the best QBs. Then probably Baker who was short and from a spread offense. The two safer pro-looking guys with size and good tape busted. Just shows you how hard it is.
I agree with a bunch of this but it does look to me like they complicate it. I don't have any proof but it looks to me like there's a bunch of guys making decisions who are looking for football players at QB when the QBs are basically playing a whole different sport to everyone else that just happens to be on the same pitch. It's like picking fighter pilots by running special forces training. As you say, the crazy thing about being a QB is the need to be stupidly aware while allying that to uncanny accuracy. Then you go and read a bunch of profiles raving about how far a guy can throw a ball, how fast he can run... those things aren't nothing, but I don't get how the sport is where it is there. It'd be like if every year, they drafted a bunch of WRs who couldn't really catch or run routes but boy are they great athletes and once you build the hands off of that blocking...
Introducing the S2 Cognition test that helps predict NFL quarterback success - this article fascinated me. It's basically some company does a mental processing test - how quickly do you spot and react to a pattern - which they claim is very predictive of passer rating. The test has apparently been in use since 2015 and 14 NFL teams use it.
Anyway, apparently Brock Purdy got a gigantic score on it. I dunno whether the draft testing is shared with teams but if Purdy's got elite scores on this, how comes he lasts to the 7th? Even if teams don't have this data... how comes they're not learning to hunt what that sort of thing looks like?
One thing in this class' favour - apparently it has fantastic scores on this test. But we don't know who (other than Bryce Young). What odds those scores belong to guys like Haener and Hooker who teams aren't salivating over because they don't have rocket arms on giant bodies? And hey, maybe they do. Apparently Josh Allen has an elite score. If Richardson or Levis have one, if their lack of college production is something else, that's different... but I dunno, feels reachy.
Also apparently only one other guy in last year's draft had an elite score. I hope that was Pickett... and if it wasn't, I wonder if we'll start seeing problems making reads over the next couple years. The conservatism of the offence made it real hard to see what he is there. We know the guy has a ton of character and guts, and we know he can be very accurate in the right situation. The reads...
What you said to Empo about the superstar or bust mentality might be right too. The difficulty of constructing a winning team around a guy on a non-rookie contract. But, still, they just don't seem to get what a superstar is. The two biggest superstars at QB recently are Brady and Mahomes. They ain't fast and they ain't big, so why do we think Richardson looking like an edge rusher gives him a ceiling like them?
