OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Sneaking up onto training camp

[MrBrightside]

Aiyuk isn't Lamb but this isn't going to lower his market.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Aiyuk isn't Lamb but this isn't going to lower his market.

I don’t see how they balance Williams wanting new guaranteed money and fitting in Aiyuk this season but anyway the aiyul resoultion needs to 100 resolved by 4 pm today so rosters can be set by tomorrow

 

[Peat]

Not trying to be a dick or get in between you 2, but your post could have been more specific to add the qualifier "RW's worst season.."

I'm quoting a post talking about his worst season and specifically state I'm talking about his first season. "The numbers for Wilson's first season in Denver". Yeah, I could have been that bit clearer but it's all there.

Wilson is better than Pickett but I don’t really think it’s a big enough upgrade to make much of a difference. I think we’re going from a bottom 5 QB to a bottom 10 QB.

Even last year with a decent stat line, Wilson’s underlying numbers were kind of ugly

I decided not to bring those up as that argument would go on forever But yes.

I just don't know what to expect. You can build any damn narrative you want out of his numbers and scouting reports at this point.

I think the issue is discussing how it would be in 2024, though. Saying the Steelers QBs downgraded ignores the fact that Pickett has been on a constant downtrend his entire career and frankly should have lost out the backup role this year to McKee on the Eagles. This isn't directed at you and more directed at the media guys making the argument, but I don't think it makes any sense to ignore that 2024 Pickett looks pretty clearly worse than 2023 Pickett, who looked pretty clearly worse than 2022 Pickett.

Even Fields has outperformed Pickett at the NFL level so far. This is also while Fields has shown some improvements with his passing numbers from year to year, unlike Pickett.

Depends what you value on the outperformance thing. In terms of production, yeah. In terms of closing games out, no. Fields' 4th quarter performance is such a deal breaker for me.

I also can't help but think the changes we saw in their numbers last season is just as consistent with Fields getting a nice new shiny WR and Pickett getting a very skewed schedule with WR/TE injuries thanks to his injuries as it is actual progression or regression.

 

[Andy99]

I don’t see how they balance Williams wanting new guaranteed money and fitting in Aiyuk this season but anyway the aiyul resoultion needs to 100 resolved by 4 pm today so rosters can be set by tomorrow

No, they can trade Aiyuk any time until the trade deadline. Steelers, for example, would keep like a 6th shitty WR or someone and then just cut him when Aiyuk is available lol….chances that we’d sign/trade for another player who’s making high enough coin is very slim

 

[pistolpete11]

The bolded reinforces my message about ball security. Your 1st response will likely be: we're talking .2 to .1 percentage points. But for a Mike Tomlin team who absolutely LOVES dancing on the margins, that figure could loom large.

I will keep beating this drum: Tomlin HATES HATES HATES turnovers (most coaches do, but it's a Tomlin mantra). Mostly bc it puts his beloved defense in a poor position. The secondary reason is that he knows his pathetic offense isn't likely to make up for the error by getting it back quickly.

And I do agree that the RW/JW combo is better than KP8/MR duo on paper. I'm curious how it translates to ultimate TEAM play.

No, it's really not a big deal. That's maybe 1 more INT a season. It's negligible and considering the much, much more significant difference in yards, TD%, etc., it's a net benefit.

His average is clearly better than Pickett's average. His high is miles beyond Pickett's high.

His low, if it comes to it, is very similar.

And we don't know what Wilson we're getting.

I feel pretty confident we're not getting Wilson's low (although I worry a bit given the surrounding cast). But, if people are going to say there's no way he can get that low, I am going to point out that his low is on record and its hideous.

No, his low is comparable to Pickett's best. It's still better than Pickett's low.

And Wilson has enough of a track record that, even at his age, it's much more believable that it was an outlier.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

No, they can trade Aiyuk any time until the trade deadline. Steelers, for example, would keep like a 6th shitty WR or someone and then just cut him when Aiyuk is available lol….chances that we’d sign/trade for another player who’s making high enough coin is very slim

True but what if they wanted to extend there own guys. Muth DJ the organization doesn’t negotiate in season

 

[Andy99]

True but what if they wanted to extend there own guys. Muth DJ the organization doesn’t negotiate in season

You can extend Muth without increasing his current salary this season…in fact, in many cases the teams can actually lower this year’s cap hit with an extension…

 

[WickedWrister]

Yeah I just think it's kind of contrarian to suggest we wont get better performance out of the QB position this year. The bar is on the floor.

2022 Russ had Nathaniel Hackett, honestly might be worse than Matt Canada

2023 Broncos offense honestly wasn't anything to write home about either. They threw a ridiculous amount of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage because Russ was getting sacked too much. Sprinkled in with his moon ball deep shots. But even that extremely conservative offense scored 21 ppg which would represent a massive upgrade over what we had with Pickett/Trubisky.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

You can extend Muth without increasing his current salary this season…in fact, in many cases the teams can actually lower this year’s cap hit with an extension…

His cap hit is less than 2 million we will see

 

[Al Smith]

I think the issue is discussing how it would be in 2024, though. Saying the Steelers QBs downgraded ignores the fact that Pickett has been on a constant downtrend his entire career and frankly should have lost out the backup role this year to McKee on the Eagles. This isn't directed at you and more directed at the media guys making the argument, but I don't think it makes any sense to ignore that 2024 Pickett looks pretty clearly worse than 2023 Pickett, who looked pretty clearly worse than 2022 Pickett.

Even Fields has outperformed Pickett at the NFL level so far. This is also while Fields has shown some improvements with his passing numbers from year to year, unlike Pickett.

To the extent it matters, the media guy I was listening to on ESPN Radio yesterday who made the comment that the Steelers had gotten worse at QB was referring to last year's triumvirate of QB's jointly, not just KP. And they were referring to both RW and JF for this year's QB set, not just RW.

 

[Empoleon8771]

To the extent it matters, the media guy I was listening to on ESPN Radio yesterday who made the comment that the Steelers had gotten worse at QB was referring to last year's triumvirate of QB's jointly, not just KP. And they were referring to both RW and JF for this year's QB set, not just RW.

I mean:

Steelers 2023: 63.8% completion%, 201.2 yards/game, 6.8 Y/A, 10.6 Y/C, 5.84 NY/A,
Wilson 2023: 66.4% completion%, 204.7 yards/game, 6.9 Y/A, 10.3 Y/C, 5.72 NY/A
Fields 2023: 61.4% completion%, 197.1 yards/game, 6.9 Y/A, 11.3 Y/C, 5.50 NY/A

I'm not really seeing anything here that says "worse at QB". At worst, it's pretty much a wash with including Rudolph's insane run at the end of the year.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

No, it's really not a big deal. That's maybe 1 more INT a season. It's negligible and considering the much, much more significant difference in yards, TD%, etc., it's a net benefit.

I read somewhere that Mike Tomlin has been in more 1 score margins than any other coach in the league (on average, not cumulative). I'll see if I can dig it up.

There's an obvious correlation between turnovers and losing, so it makes sense that even such a miniscule difference could literally be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs- I'm not being hyperbolic.

Look at our last few seasons where we've made the playoffs by the skin of our teeth/last game of the year. You factor in 1 more loss and it's simply no playoffs.

This is the danger of playing Mike Tomlin football: playing close to the vest in every facet, where the margins are so slim that just 1 turnover or 2 can do you in.

I'm in no way cosigning this philosophy or advocating for the return of KP or some other milquetoast QB to play handoff monkey. I'm simply stating that while these new cats are more talented, it may not jive well with what Tomlin wants to do. We'll see if those chickens come home to roost or not.

 

[Pens1566]

I struggle to think of ANY NFL QB I'd prefer KP over ...

 

[Peat]

I mean:

Steelers 2023: 63.8% completion%, 201.2 yards/game, 6.8 Y/A, 10.6 Y/C, 5.84 NY/A,
Wilson 2023: 66.4% completion%, 204.7 yards/game, 6.9 Y/A, 10.3 Y/C, 5.72 NY/A
Fields 2023: 61.4% completion%, 197.1 yards/game, 6.9 Y/A, 11.3 Y/C, 5.50 NY/A

I'm not really seeing anything here that says "worse at QB". At worst, it's pretty much a wash with including Rudolph's insane run at the end of the year.

But those numbers are in systems that aren't "conservative by design" and then given the Canada touch. That's quite a handicapping for the Steelers' guys.

*shrugs* I'd say we'll see it on the field, but I really really hope that Smith is given the rope to attack and we're never given the ability to properly compare.

 

[xlm34]

The Athletic released their QB rankings which is a survey of 50 coaches/execs. Russ ranked 22 and Fields ranked 24 and that seems about right to me.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I kind of see another year of limbo - 9-8, 10-7 and getting obliterated in postseason if we make it. Not sold on RW or Fields. Not as bad as Pickett but I think we will get upgraded QB play with slightly less “horseshoe up our ass” moments so the record will net out similarly.

Good news is I think they are building a nice cabal of talent for a rookie/drafted QB on O. Bad news is the young OL actually need to develop, and you need to be bad enough to get the QB.

But if OL doesn’t figure it out, we might actually suck this season (truly wondering… would that be the worst thing for this franchise)?

Unless things really change, hard to see this team truly contending in Watt era.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Athletic released their QB rankings which is a survey of 50 coaches/execs. Russ ranked 22 and Fields ranked 24 and that seems about right to me.

Should note that despite Wilson and Fields being close, Wilson is on tier 3 and Fields is on tier 4. Difference between those tiers is the difference between guys like Mayfield, Carr and Watson in one group and Jones, Minshew and Darnold in the other.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Pretty cool stuff if you're a an engineering dork

NFL to use new device to check field conditions

NFL officials say a new device known as "Strike" will be used to assess pregame field conditions during the upcoming regular season, with the goal of helping to create universal guidelines for the league's 30 playing surfaces.

www.espn.com

 

[T1K]

Should note that despite Wilson and Fields being close, Wilson is on tier 3 and Fields is on tier 4. Difference between those tiers is the difference between guys like Mayfield, Carr and Watson in one group and Jones, Minshew and Darnold in the other.

These tiers are rather wide — putting Wilson in the same group as TLaw, and Kyler is quite generous to Wilson.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

These tiers are rather wide — putting Wilson in the same group as TLaw, and Kyler is quite generous to Wilson.

Not really Lawerence isn’t good especially for a generation talent and Kyler can’t stay healthy

 

[pistolpete11]

I read somewhere that Mike Tomlin has been in more 1 score margins than any other coach in the league (on average, not cumulative). I'll see if I can dig it up.

There's an obvious correlation between turnovers and losing, so it makes sense that even such a miniscule difference could literally be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs- I'm not being hyperbolic.

Look at our last few seasons where we've made the playoffs by the skin of our teeth/last game of the year. You factor in 1 more loss and it's simply no playoffs.

This is the danger of playing Mike Tomlin football: playing close to the vest in every facet, where the margins are so slim that just 1 turnover or 2 can do you in.

I'm in no way cosigning this philosophy or advocating for the return of KP or some other milquetoast QB to play handoff monkey. I'm simply stating that while these new cats are more talented, it may not jive well with what Tomlin wants to do. We'll see if those chickens come home to roost or not.

You're ignoring the significantly more good that comes along with that maybe-1 extra INT a season.

 

[WickedWrister]

But those numbers are in systems that aren't "conservative by design" and then given the Canada touch. That's quite a handicapping for the Steelers' guys.

*shrugs* I'd say we'll see it on the field, but I really really hope that Smith is given the rope to attack and we're never given the ability to properly compare.

We saw the comparison last year when Rudolph came in. Canada was fired but it was the same playbook and scheme. If that didn't open your eyes that Pickett was not the guy, I don't know what will.

And I'd argue the Broncos offense last year was just as if not more conservative than ours. They attempted the most passes at or behind the line of scrimmage than any other offense in like 15 years.

 

[Peat]

Should note that despite Wilson and Fields being close, Wilson is on tier 3 and Fields is on tier 4. Difference between those tiers is the difference between guys like Mayfield, Carr and Watson in one group and Jones, Minshew and Darnold in the other.

So Wilson is at the bottom of Tier 3, and Fields right at the top of Tier 4?

 

[Empoleon8771]

These tiers are rather wide — putting Wilson in the same group as TLaw, and Kyler is quite generous to Wilson.

Eh I don't think Lawrence or Kyler are all that good personally, so I don't object a ton. That's not really praising Wilson, though.

So Wilson is at the bottom of Tier 3, and Fields right at the top of Tier 4?

Yes, the guy between them is Daniel Jones.

I generally agree that Wilson is a Carr/Watson caliber guy while Fields is a Minshew/Darnold caliber guy.

 

[xlm34]

So Wilson is at the bottom of Tier 3, and Fields right at the top of Tier 4?

Wilson is the last in tier 3 which is labeled as a legitimate starter that ideally is not throwing a bunch. And Fields is second in tier 4 which is filled with the unproven young guys or stop gap vets.

Wilson got 35 votes for tier 3, 12 for tier 4, and 3 For tier 2. Fields got 20 votes for tier 3, 25 for tier 4, 1 for tier 2, and 4 for tier 5.