OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Sneaking up onto training camp

[bigdaddyk88]

Rodgers makes the jets a superbowl contender but we will win 6 games with RW

 

[TooManyHumans]

I am not a fan of either Wilson or Fields, but to argue that they are worse than the all time historically bad Pickett is insane to me. 1.8 TD%. It does not get worse than that.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Pickett also can’t push the ball downfield. He’s doing the same stuff in Philly. Russ and Fields both have fantastic arm strength.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

League News:

Source: Chiefs reunite with WR Smith-Schuster

The Chiefs are signing wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, a source told ESPN amid multiple reports.

www.espn.com

Sources: Browns' Chubb out at least 1st 4 games

Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb will not be eligible to play in at least the first four games of the regular season, with sources telling ESPN's Adam Schefter that Chubb will remain on the Physically Unable to Perform list.

www.espn.com

 

[Peat]

I mean, I'm no Wilson supporter and I realize this fits in with your pro-Pickett stuff from last year and your gloom and doom from this year, but the bolded part is not remotely correct.

60.5% completion 16 touchdowns 11 interceptions passer rating 84.4 QBR 38.7
62% completion 6 touchdowns 4 interceptions passer rating 81.4 QBR 38.1

Completions, ratings, and touchdowns to interceptions ratio are all within negligible distances of each other.

Touchdowns are obviously different, but given Wilson's added mistakes, it comes out at the same level of passing performance.

If anyone still wants to claim these numbers are way way better, or that it's not remotely correct to say they're right there in the same ballpark, have fun with that.

 

[MrBrightside]

60.5% completion 16 touchdowns 11 interceptions passer rating 84.4 QBR 38.7
62% completion 6 touchdowns 4 interceptions passer rating 81.4 QBR 38.1

Completions, ratings, and touchdowns to interceptions ratio are all within negligible distances of each other.

Touchdowns are obviously different, but given Wilson's added mistakes, it comes out at the same level of passing performance.

If anyone still wants to claim these numbers are way way better, or that it's not remotely correct to say they're right there in the same ballpark, have fun with that.

Where are you getting these stats for Wilson?

Russell Wilson Career Stats - NFL - ESPN

Complete career NFL stats for Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Russell Wilson on ESPN. Includes scoring, rushing, defensive and receiving stats.

www.espn.com

Your numbers are totally made up.

EDIT - ah, I see, you're using his 2022 numbers and ignoring the 2023 numbers. That's an intellectually honest approach.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Where are you getting these stats for Wilson?

Russell Wilson Career Stats - NFL - ESPN

Complete career NFL stats for Pittsburgh Steelers Quarterback Russell Wilson on ESPN. Includes scoring, rushing, defensive and receiving stats.

www.espn.com

Your numbers are totally made up.

He may have been looking at the 2022 stats for RW.

 

[MrBrightside]

He may have been looking at the 2022 stats for RW.

Seems to be the case.

I hate this argument as I'm not a Wilson fan. I'd much rather just go with Fields and see what happens. But the idea that there's no difference between Wilson and Pickett is asinine.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Seems to be the case.

I hate this argument as I'm not a Wilson fan. I'd much rather just go with Fields and see what happens. But the idea that there's no difference between Wilson and Pickett is asinine.

Agreed and even if we were doing 2022 RW stats, 10 more TD's is significant. Realize he had more INT's, but that doesn't magically erase the TD production.

 

[T1K]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828082589229289851

Metchie would be an interesting addition to the WR room

 

[TooManyHumans]

Wilson: 66.4% 26 TD 5.8 TD% 8 INT 1.8 INT% 6.9 Yards/Attempt 6.04 Adjusted Air Yards/Attempt.

Pickett: 62.0% 6 TD 1.8 TD% 4 INT 1.2 INT% 6.4 Yards/Attempt 5.29 Adjusted Air Yards/Attempt.

Wilson was clearly better last year than Pickett. I am not a fan of Wilson but c'mon with this nonsense.

 

[pistolpete11]

Define "better". And I'm not being pedantic here.

KP was told to be a game manager/not turn the ball over bc Mike Tomlin's philosophy is that any possession ending in a punt or a FG is a good one. So you never saw KP take risks (which lends itself to more turnovers).

RW and JF are objectively better QB's on paper vs KP or even Mason. But I fear that the type of QB this team needs isn't those types of QBs. They've been in this league for awhile and their previous coaches have let them make mistakes. JF is a turnover machine with his fumbles and INT's. How long will Tomlin stand for that?

I still haven't seen enough of Wilson in Denver or even in a Steelers uniform to see who he is today vs what I've come to see in Seattle.

In short, from an individual standpoint we're likely to see more positive production from RW/JF compared to last year. But be prepared to see more negative plays (fumbles/INT's/dumb decisions) too. How does that parlay into team success? Guess we'll find out...

When it comes to Wilson, I mean 'better' in just about every conceivable metric. Pickett throws slightly less INT (1.8% career to 1.9% career or 2.0% in Denver), but that's about it. You have to compare Pickett's 'best' season to Wilson's outlier of a bad season to get anywhere near making an argument for Pickett.

With Fields, he turns the ball over a ton, no doubt. Like I said, I don't think he's particularly good. But statistically, they are similar passers (78.8 rating for Pickett vs. 82.3 for Fields) despite the INT, but Fields has the added threat of using his legs.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

@Peat 's post mentioned Wilson's first season in Denver, not last year. Some of you are a little too desperately hoping that the guy doesn't suck

 

[pistolpete11]

@Peat 's post mentioned Wilson's first season in Denver, not last year. Some of you are a little too desperately hoping that the guy doesn't suck

I don't think anyone is super stoked on Wilson.

Pointing out that he's (clearly) better than Pickett is entirely different than saying he's good.

 

[Peat]

EDIT - ah, I see, you're using his 2022 numbers and ignoring the 2023 numbers. That's an intellectually honest approach.

Well, yes, yes it is. What would I use when answering a post about Wilson's worst season other than, well, Wilson's worst season?

Learn to read rather than just exploding at the fact someone's said something you don't like.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You can say it's a dishonest argument, but I have a really tough time imagining how moving on from a guy who should be the 3rd string QB on the Eagles is a "downgrade" at QB. Pickett has been trending down his entire time in the NFL and I have no clue how you can look at Fields and Wilson and say "this is worse than if they would have kept Pickett".

 

[MrBrightside]

Well, yes, yes it is. What would I use when answering a post about Wilson's worst season other than, well, Wilson's worst season?

Learn to read rather than just exploding at the fact someone's said something you don't like.

"Exploding." Ok.

I mean, if you're comfortable cherry picking Wilson's worst season by a wide margin that was still better than Pickett's entire body of work and think it supports your thesis that the Steelers will suck because Wilson isn't better than Pickett, have at it. I suspect it will hold up as well as your 3324 posts defending Pickett all of the 2023 season have.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Rw is probably a 16-20 qb which is the best Qb we had since 2019

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

When it comes to Wilson, I mean 'better' in just about every conceivable metric. Pickett throws slightly less INT (1.8% career to 1.9% career or 2.0% in Denver), but that's about it. You have to compare Pickett's 'best' season to Wilson's outlier of a bad season to get anywhere near making an argument for Pickett.

With Fields, he turns the ball over a ton, no doubt. Like I said, I don't think he's particularly good. But statistically, they are similar passers (78.8 rating for Pickett vs. 82.3 for Fields) despite the INT, but Fields has the added threat of using his legs.

The bolded reinforces my message about ball security. Your 1st response will likely be: we're talking .2 to .1 percentage points. But for a Mike Tomlin team who absolutely LOVES dancing on the margins, that figure could loom large.

I will keep beating this drum: Tomlin HATES HATES HATES turnovers (most coaches do, but it's a Tomlin mantra). Mostly bc it puts his beloved defense in a poor position. The secondary reason is that he knows his pathetic offense isn't likely to make up for the error by getting it back quickly.

And I do agree that the RW/JW combo is better than KP8/MR duo on paper. I'm curious how it translates to ultimate TEAM play.

 

[Peat]

I don't think anyone is super stoked on Wilson.

Pointing out that he's (clearly) better than Pickett is entirely different than saying he's good.

His average is clearly better than Pickett's average. His high is miles beyond Pickett's high.

His low, if it comes to it, is very similar.

And we don't know what Wilson we're getting.

I feel pretty confident we're not getting Wilson's low (although I worry a bit given the surrounding cast). But, if people are going to say there's no way he can get that low, I am going to point out that his low is on record and its hideous.

You can say it's a dishonest argument, but I have a really tough time imagining how moving on from a guy who should be the 3rd string QB on the Eagles is a "downgrade" at QB. Pickett has been trending down his entire time in the NFL and I have no clue how you can look at Fields and Wilson and say "this is worse than if they would have kept Pickett".

There really can't be any regrets about moving on at this point. At worst it will be sideways.

The one way I can see it going pearshaped is if the Steelers are still relying on last quarter drives to win games, which seems plausible given Tomlin and the NFL in general, then they could end up losing more games. Wilson's 4th quarter history is good so not really a worry unless he declines massively, but Fields' history is he will just lose.

But there's a massive silver lining in the draft and refreshing the org if that happens so YOLO.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

Well, yes, yes it is. What would I use when answering a post about Wilson's worst season other than, well, Wilson's worst season?

Learn to read rather than just exploding at the fact someone's said something you don't like.

Not trying to be a dick or get in between you 2, but your post could have been more specific to add the qualifier "RW's worst season.."

 

[xlm34]

Wilson is better than Pickett but I don’t really think it’s a big enough upgrade to make much of a difference. I think we’re going from a bottom 5 QB to a bottom 10 QB.

Even last year with a decent stat line, Wilson’s underlying numbers were kind of ugly.

 

[MrBrightside]

The bolded reinforces my message about ball security. Your 1st response will likely be: we're talking .2 to .1 percentage points. But for a Mike Tomlin team who absolutely LOVES dancing on the margins, that figure could loom large.

I will keep beating this drum: Tomlin HATES HATES HATES turnovers (most coaches do, but it's a Tomlin mantra). Mostly bc it puts his beloved defense in a poor position. The secondary reason is that he knows his pathetic offense isn't likely to make up for the error by getting it back quickly.

And I do agree that the RW/JW combo is better than KP8/MR duo on paper. I'm curious how it translates to ultimate TEAM play.

That would be literally the difference of one turnover over the course of a season.

I don't disagree with the fundamental point. I'm not a fan of Wilson. I fear that they'll just continue being risk averse and will play to win every game 16-13, and Wilson being the QB plays very much into that dynamic. As noted, between his similarities with Pickett in hating the middle of the field and the anticipated conservative play calling of Smith/Tomlin, I don't think the offense will be much different. I do think they'll convert in the red zone more often and hit a few more big plays, but at the end of the day, it'll be a similar offense but with a better scheme and better QB, even if not a great QB.

 

[TooManyHumans]

I will keep beating this drum: Tomlin HATES HATES HATES turnovers (most coaches do, but it's a Tomlin mantra). Mostly bc it puts his beloved defense in a poor position. The secondary reason is that he knows his pathetic offense isn't likely to make up for the error by getting it back quickly.

Which is why I never really considered Fields to be competing to start. Dude turns it over way too much. He will likely get a shot at some point this year though. I can't see Wilson staying healthy and playing great all year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There really can't be any regrets about moving on at this point. At worst it will be sideways.

The one way I can see it going pearshaped is if the Steelers are still relying on last quarter drives to win games, which seems plausible given Tomlin and the NFL in general, then they could end up losing more games. Wilson's 4th quarter history is good so not really a worry unless he declines massively, but Fields' history is he will just lose.

But there's a massive silver lining in the draft and refreshing the org if that happens so YOLO.

I think the issue is discussing how it would be in 2024, though. Saying the Steelers QBs downgraded ignores the fact that Pickett has been on a constant downtrend his entire career and frankly should have lost out the backup role this year to McKee on the Eagles. This isn't directed at you and more directed at the media guys making the argument, but I don't think it makes any sense to ignore that 2024 Pickett looks pretty clearly worse than 2023 Pickett, who looked pretty clearly worse than 2022 Pickett.

Even Fields has outperformed Pickett at the NFL level so far. This is also while Fields has shown some improvements with his passing numbers from year to year, unlike Pickett.