Chris Halicke
5 hours ago - 01.16.2025Downtown
Top 10 favorites to be Steelers' next quarterback
The Steelers have just one quarterback under contract right now, and it's a sure bet Skylar Thompson won't be the starter come Week 1 in 2025. While it's a bit difficult to forecast who will be the next quarterback, we can at least weight the pros and cons of several options.
We'll break this down by the top-10 betting favorites, according to SportsBetting.ag:
1. Sam Darnold, free agent (3/1 odds)
The third overall pick in the 2018 draft had a career year with the Vikings, setting career highs in completion percentage (66.2%), passing yards (4,319), passing touchdowns (35) and passer rating (102.5). The advanced analytics were pretty favorable for Darnold, too. He finished with the same exact success rate (50.9) at Patrick Mahomes.
However, there's plenty of reason to be skeptical of Darnold not repeating the way he played the previous six seasons with the Jets, Panthers and 49ers. He had a great situation in Minnesota. It would be a gamble. Even with Darnold ending the season with a couple of bad games, it still may cost a lot of money. Pro Football Focus projects three years, $123.75 million with $70 million guaranteed for Darnold. That's a hefty price tag for one really good year.
2. Aaron Rodgers, cut/trade candidate (4/1 odds)
Rodgers is a future Hall-of-Famer. No doubt about that. And, even at 41 years old, Rodgers still completed 63% of his passes for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His 1.9% interception rate -- a stat Rodgers has led the NFL in six different times -- still shows he can take care of the football. That's something Mike Tomlin values almost more than anything on the offensive side of the ball.
However, the Steelers' offensive line just isn't equipped to protect an aging quarterback, especially one significantly less mobile than Russell Wilson. More importantly, there are numerous reports from both Green Bay and New York about Rodgers liking to throw his weight around and influencing roster decisions to best fit what he wants to do on offense. I'm skeptical that Tomlin would want to deal with an ego like that, especially since Rodgers' best days are clearly behind him.
3. Justin Fields, free agent (5/1 odds)
In six starts with the Steelers, Fields showed true growth in a couple of key areas. After turning the ball over 41 times in three seasons with the Bears, Fields turned it over just twice in those six games. That aided in a 4-2 start to the season. Fields also showed more dedication to playing from the pocket and getting through his progressions. And, his tools are undeniably special. He's got a strong arm and the only quarterback more electric with his legs is probably Lamar Jackson.
Committing to Fields is still risky. He's only 25 years old, so there's still plenty of room to grow and mature. But, Fields is still inaccurate on too many routine throws, especially to the flat. With the Steelers, he also struggled to lead the offense to more touchdowns after getting in the red zone. However, it might not take a huge contract to lure Fields back to Pittsburgh. PFF projects just a one-year, $11-million deal. If the Steelers could offer two years for $25 million with about $15 million guaranteed, that could be a low-cost move with moderate risk and high upside.
4. Russell Wilson, free agent (6/1 odds)
Wilson took over for Fields in Week 7, and for the next seven games, the offense hummed with him at quarterback. The team not only went 6-1 during those games, but Wilson unlocked the explosive pass plays with his patented moon balls to George Pickens and a few others.
But, as we all know now, Wilson's game deteriorated down the stretch. While he had a 103.9 passer rating during the aforementioned seven-game stretch, his 81.3 passer rating in a four-game losing streak to end the season was one of the reasons why the offense became horrifically stagnant. As epitomized in the wild-card loss to the Ravens, the offense became solely reliant on Wilson's ability to throw the deep ball. That's not an efficient way to run an offense, so it's no wonder why Wilson's 43.3% success rate ranked 26th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Also, Wilson will turn 37 before the end of the 2025 season. His game can't evolve to become more of a pocket passer, so relying on him to keep playing the same way that made him successful during his run in Seattle is a huge risk.
5. Jalen Milroe, draft prospect (7/1 odds)
The first draft prospect is Milroe, coming off two productive seasons at Alabama. He finished sixth in the Heisman voting in 2023, but regressed a bit in 2024. While he completed 64.3% of his passes, he threw for 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season while he threw for 23 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2023. However, Milroe would fit Tomlin's "very" important desire to have a mobile quarterback. Milroe amassed 1,257 rushing yards over the past two seasons. Milroe is also just a tad undersized at 6-2, 201 pounds. It could work while he's young and still has his speed, but that will wear down as he ages.
6. Quinn Ewers, draft prospect (7/1 odds)
Ewers is another potential option in the draft, coming off three seasons as the starter at Texas. He's an inch taller than Milroe, but he's also got a great arm and just led the SEC with 31 touchdown passes. However, he also led the conference with 12 interceptions. Like Milroe, his 2023 season was far better than his 2024 season, completing 69% of his throws for 3,479 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions in 12 games. But, that was also against lesser competition before Texas moved from the Big 12 to the SEC. His mobility is also lacking, and he's not a polished enough pocket passer to be a plug-and-play starter in the NFL.
7. Kirk Cousins, cut/trade candidate (9/1 odds)
Cousins was the top name in last year's free agent class, coming off four of five seasons with the Vikings in which he posted a passer rating of 103.1 or better. The Falcons gave him a huge contract to be their next quarterback, signing him to a four-year, $180-million deal with $100 million guaranteed. The Falcons have moved on to last year's first-round pick Michael Penix Jr., so the Steelers could do what they did last year and get a quarterback at a cheap price while another team pays the majority of his salary.
The problem is Cousins did not play anywhere close to the level he did in Minnesota. He led the NFL with 16 interceptions and was benched after 14 starts. His 88.6 passer rating was his lowest since 2014 with Washington. Cousins will also turn 37 in August. For an organization that desperately needs change, getting an aging quarterback on the cheap isn't exactly the change they need.
8. Daniel Jones, free agent (12/1 odds)
Jones is hardly an attractive option based on what he did with the Giants. He had one season that stood out when he helped lead the Giants to a 9-7-1 record and win a playoff game against the Vikings. In that season, he completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,205 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing for 708 yards and seven touchdowns on 120 carries. Jones would certainly qualify under Tomlin's desire for quarterback mobility.
The problem is Jones is wildly inconsistent as a passer. After that 2022 season in which Jones recorded a career-high 92.5 passer rating, he hasn't even sniffed anything higher than 79.4. While there are quarterbacks that have found success after years of struggles, including Ryan Tannehill at age 31 when he played under Arther Smith, this feels like more of a project. Not a ton of upside here. If the Steelers aren't going to find their franchise quarterback, and it likely won't be this spring, they at least need upside.
9. Derek Carr, cut/trade candidate (16/1 odds)
The Saints are about to head for a complete reset. They have the worst salary cap situation in the NFL, as they are currently $48.7 million over the cap. Carr is due for a $51.46-million cap hit. It's very hard to see them holding onto him. If they traded him before June 1, they'd still take a $40.1-million cap hit, but be free of his contract after 2025. In 10 games on a bad Saints team, Carr completed 67.7% of his passes for 2,145 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions, a passer rating of 101.0 while averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.
Carr turns 34 in March. And, once he would be traded or cut, he'll cost way more than other guys such as Rodgers or Cousins. This would be for a guy that was limited to just 10 games due to injuries. The Steelers have the money, but I find it hard to believe they would want to tie up so much money to an aging quarterback.
10: J.J. McCarthy, trade candidate (16/1 odds)
Should the Vikings (literally) buy into Darnold, they could move on from their 2024 first-round pick, whose season was derailed by two knee surgeries to repair a torn meniscus. McCarthy was one of the more talented quarterbacks in a good 2024 class of quarterbacks, and he played in a pro style offense at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh. He also has familiarity with Roman Wilson, who also went to Michigan.
Should the Vikings sign Darnold and make McCarthy available, it would likely cost quite a bit in draft capital. He's a potential franchise quarterback, though that's hardly a guarantee. It would be a move that requires buying into McCarthy and dedicating to his growth into their quarterback. But, this could all be moot, at least until we know what Minnesota is going to do about their quarterback situation.
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