OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Congrats to KC, but Kelce was the real winner winning Swift

[Ryder71]

This is why I have a nagging feeling WR is in play at 20 or 51.

Hope not, we got other pressing holes, hopefully we get a WR very soon.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Hope not, we got other pressing holes, hopefully we get a WR very soon.

Nope moore is starting lt they have a cb2 now and a milb so its c or wr at 20

 

[Peat]

Hope not, we got other pressing holes, hopefully we get a WR very soon.

One WR only partly plugs the hole. And the Steelers actively scouting 1st round WRs.

I think Khan is going to have to smash it out of the park to plug all the holes with quality tbh.

 

[WickedWrister]

Can't say I really love any of these options. Hollywood is the youngest and would fit with the scouting old divisional rivals theme, but I've never been a huge fan.

Fair point, but he was still big time more efficient than Johnson. I'm guessing that's partly on routes run too (but then Smith loves targeting it downfield), but even so, you can apply some level of evening out for being on a less efficient offence and he should still do what Johnson did.

I mean we're talking about a guy who's 29 and had a career high of 3.3 receptions and 38 yards per game back in 2020. He's simply not an every down receiver. He's the definition of like a 50-60 target per year WR3.

Nope moore is starting lt they have a cb2 now and a milb so its c or wr at 20

I would not rule out tackle at 20.

 

[Peat]

I mean we're talking about a guy who's 29 and had a career high of 3.3 receptions and 38 yards per game back in 2020. He's simply not an every down receiver. He's the definition of like a 50-60 target per year WR3.

104 receptions put you in the top 32 WRs last year. 64th (i.e. last of the WR2s) saw 64... which is Josh Reynolds.

It's not brilliant. I'm not high on the guy. But given where we are, unless the team wants to gamble on a fading veteran having a bit more juice or go trade, he's the best of what there is and I think he is good enough to do work.

Does getting Reynolds as WR2 put a bit of urgency on drafting a high potential guy in the draft? Yes. But to me, that existed anyway. It existed even with DJ on the roster.

And despite all you've said, which is all true, he still basically did a pretty equal job compared to what DJ did and could be expected to replace those 5 TDs and most of those yards. Hence why I thought there was urgency on getting a high potential guy in the draft with DJ here...

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Can't say I really love any of these options. Hollywood is the youngest and would fit with the scouting old divisional rivals theme, but I've never been a huge fan.


I mean we're talking about a guy who's 29 and had a career high of 3.3 receptions and 38 yards per game back in 2020. He's simply not an every down receiver. He's the definition of like a 50-60 target per year WR3.


I would not rule out tackle at 20.

I would they have moore they like and jones. Heck they could like Anderson enough to not go c in round 1

 

[Ryder71]

Nope moore is starting lt they have a cb2 now and a milb so its c or wr at 20

Center please! Get a 12 year cornerstone for the OL.

One WR only partly plugs the hole. And the Steelers actively scouting 1st round WRs.

I think Khan is going to have to smash it out of the park to plug all the holes with quality tbh.

If you miss a center in round one, Barton and Frazier aren't likely to make it to 51. You can get a good WR in the 3rd round.

 

[WickedWrister]

104 receptions put you in the top 32 WRs last year. 64th (i.e. last of the WR2s) saw 64... which is Josh Reynolds.

It's not brilliant. I'm not high on the guy. But given where we are, unless the team wants to gamble on a fading veteran having a bit more juice or go trade, he's the best of what there is and I think he is good enough to do work.

Does getting Reynolds as WR2 put a bit of urgency on drafting a high potential guy in the draft? Yes. But to me, that existed anyway. It existed even with DJ on the roster.

And despite all you've said, which is all true, he still basically did a pretty equal job compared to what DJ did and could be expected to replace those 5 TDs and most of those yards. Hence why I thought there was urgency on getting a high potential guy in the draft with DJ here...

Reynolds only had 40 receptions last year. You're looking at targets.

He got extra run at the beginning of the year because Jameson Williams (their real WR2) was suspended.

You can't just take his numbers from the #2 passing offense in football and plop them into one of the worst ones and think we're going to get similar results.

 

[Ryder71]

Boyd would be good in as much as we'd have some more stability at that position. He's also not a head case and has a very good work ethic. Then get a WR on day two or three at the draft. Get a safety and WR this week or thereabouts.

If so you can still go C, CB at 20, 51

 

[Ryder71]

dp

 

[Peat]

Reynolds only had 40 receptions last year. You're looking at targets.

He got extra run at the beginning of the year because Jameson Williams (their real WR2) was suspended.

You can't just take his numbers from the #2 passing offense in football and plop them into one of the worst ones and think we're going to get similar results.

So I am, but I was looking at targets all the way through and just put in the wrong word. The point stands.

And if I thought you could just move Reynolds' numbers from the Lions to the Steelers intact and all would be well, I'd be crowing how about he'd improve the Steelers because he was straight up better than DJ per target. Apply some wriggle room, assume the Steelers are going to improve (it'd be pretty bloody awful if they didn't given the changes made at OC and QB), and I don't see why similar wouldn't occur. It's not like WRs aren't part of whether an offence is good or not - if Reynolds can be WR2 on a really good offence, that's a good thing.

And, again, it's not like Diontae Johnson left a really impressive target for an incoming WR to clear. I am quite explicit that I don't think Reynolds is going to be a good WR2 here. Johnson didn't put up good WR2 numbers though. (edit: Or maybe looking at the numbers that's unfair but either way, comparable and Reynolds was better last season)

 

[MrBrightside]

So I am, but I was looking at targets all the way through and just put in the wrong word. The point stands.

And if I thought you could just move Reynolds' numbers from the Lions to the Steelers intact and all would be well, I'd be crowing how about he'd improve the Steelers because he was straight up better than DJ per target. Apply some wriggle room, assume the Steelers are going to improve (it'd be pretty bloody awful if they didn't given the changes made at OC and QB), and I don't see why similar wouldn't occur. It's not like WRs aren't part of whether an offence is good or not - if Reynolds can be WR2 on a really good offence, that's a good thing.

And, again, it's not like Diontae Johnson left a really impressive target for an incoming WR to clear. I am quite explicit that I don't think Reynolds is going to be a good WR2 here. Johnson didn't put up good WR2 numbers though. (edit: Or maybe looking at the numbers that's unfair but either way, comparable and Reynolds was better last season)

I really think it's a mistake in analysis just to treat receiver play as a zero sum game where targets and catches can just be moved from Player A to Player B and that you can just take 50 targets and add 1 per game to 3 other guys and you're in the same spot. It doesn't work that way. For whatever limitations Johnson had, he got open and drew defensive attention. There will be an entirely new scheme and many new parts so it's even less an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's like saying that if you sign 10 free agents for $5 each you're getting the same quality as signing 2 free agents for $25 each.

 

[WickedWrister]

So I am, but I was looking at targets all the way through and just put in the wrong word. The point stands.

And if I thought you could just move Reynolds' numbers from the Lions to the Steelers intact and all would be well, I'd be crowing how about he'd improve the Steelers because he was straight up better than DJ per target. Apply some wriggle room, assume the Steelers are going to improve (it'd be pretty bloody awful if they didn't given the changes made at OC and QB), and I don't see why similar wouldn't occur. It's not like WRs aren't part of whether an offence is good or not - if Reynolds can be WR2 on a really good offence, that's a good thing.

And, again, it's not like Diontae Johnson left a really impressive target for an incoming WR to clear. I am quite explicit that I don't think Reynolds is going to be a good WR2 here. Johnson didn't put up good WR2 numbers though.

Ok fair enough I just dont think having the 64th most targets among WR (largely because Jared Goff threw the ball 600+ times) is a compelling argument for him being WR2 material. He's not even the WR2 on that team, it's Jameson Williams. He was on a 2 year 6 million dollar contract.

I wouldn't mind him I guess, but he's probably due for a big raise with the cap jumping up in what's likely his last big contract opportunity. And just the fact that getting any semi decent WR in FA has been expensive of late.

I'd be okay with anything less than like 6-7 million per?

 

[pistolpete11]

Reynolds only had 40 receptions last year. You're looking at targets.

He got extra run at the beginning of the year because Jameson Williams (their real WR2) was suspended.

You can't just take his numbers from the #2 passing offense in football and plop them into one of the worst ones and think we're going to get similar results.

The Lions threw the ball more than the Steelers, but they had more options than the Steelers. If Williams was their WR2, then that means Reynolds was their 4th option including LaPorta. Here, he'd be 2nd behind Pickens, maybe 3rd depending on how they use Muth. So he'd still probably see 60+ targets over the course of the season.

 

[WickedWrister]

The Lions threw the ball more than the Steelers, but they had more options than the Steelers. If Williams was their WR2, then that means Reynolds was their 4th option including LaPorta. Here, he'd be 2nd behind Pickens, maybe 3rd depending on how they use Muth. So he'd still probably see 60+ targets over the course of the season.

Yeah I just don't think that's a very attractive scenario for us.

 

[Peat]

Yeah I just don't think that's a very attractive scenario for us.

I never said it was attractive! Surely the fact that I'm comparing it to last year's dogshit offence should tell you it isn't attractive

But out of the options left, I think it's the best. And I don't regret losing Diontae Johnson when I look at it.

But I do get real interested in drafting a guy. I hope they figure out ways to reinforce the OL in FA, because they're going to have to take a guy early.

 

[WickedWrister]

I never said it was attractive! Surely the fact that I'm comparing it to last year's dogshit offence should tell you it isn't attractive

But out of the options left, I think it's the best. And I don't regret losing Diontae Johnson when I look at it.

But I do get real interested in drafting a guy. I hope they figure out ways to reinforce the OL in FA, because they're going to have to take a guy early.

"Don't need a WR2 when you have two TE1's"

 

[Peat]

"Don't need a WR2 when you have two TE1's"

I'd be so down for that.

I dunno whether I shared it or found it here (seems the sort of of thing you might have shared tbh) or what, but I remember seeing an article saying Shanahan was pretty much abandoning pass action in favour of straight dropbacks, because he could get all the benefits of forcing opponents to play the run simply by sticking out a FB.

I want to see the Steelers use 2 TEs or a FB like that. It was why I was down for Washington, but it feels like he's going to be slow maturing to be that sort of guy. Maybe they can turn Baby Heyward into that FB, or find a way to use Harris and Warren at the same time that works. But if they want to draft to make that happen even better, I'm game.

 

[Peat]

I really think it's a mistake in analysis just to treat receiver play as a zero sum game where targets and catches can just be moved from Player A to Player B and that you can just take 50 targets and add 1 per game to 3 other guys and you're in the same spot. It doesn't work that way. For whatever limitations Johnson had, he got open and drew defensive attention. There will be an entirely new scheme and many new parts so it's even less an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's like saying that if you sign 10 free agents for $5 each you're getting the same quality as signing 2 free agents for $25 each.

You're not wrong.

But I don't see a better place to start.

Ideally each answer sparks new questions that are then researched. Reynold was efficient with low end WR2 targets, but how did he and Detroit do when he had to be WR2? What routes is he running when that happens, does it change? How effective were the Steelers without Johnson? Etc.etc.

But answering those questions is a lot of work and I don't care that much. I can tell you the Lions' score per game was near identical with Reynolds as WR2 and the other guy as WR2, but I've lost the exact numbers and don't feel like working it out again, and in any case that number isn't definitely right as what if there were defensive scores?

That all said, I think people are overblowing the differences here. Reynolds is a guy who just put up similar boxscores to DJ off of a borderline WR2 workload. He'd be going from number 3/4 to target 3. Yes the Detroit offence was very good. I don't think they were so good that he should just fall apart in a league average offence, and whether that happens mostly falls on the OL/Smith/QB/Pickens/Muth. If Pickens can't handle being WR1, pretty much no WR2 is rescuing things. A borderline WR1, yeah, but it's been a while since Johnson did that in Pittsburgh which one of my main points.



Actually I am going to look up some numbers. Pickens in the 4 games without DJ last season.

33 targets (140 over a full season) 17 catches (72 catches over a full season) 357 yards (1517 yards over a full season) 2 TDs (8.5 over a full season)

Those numbers blow his full season numbers out of the water (except for the catches, which are better but woof that's not good). And he did that with Pickett and Canada, with Robinson and Heyward to draw attention, and he did that vs 4 teams that ended up in the top 15 for points against and yards against. 3 of the 4 games were close so not much garbage time (and that one game that was close is the one game he got shut down).

Obviously a small sample. Obviously the increased physical workload might wear at him over a full season.

But just as a sample of how much Diontae Johnson's ability to draw attention meant to Pickens, it comes back strong on "not a lot". Replacing Johnson does not seem to involve replacing a vital magnet that made other players better at first glance.

 

[MrBrightside]

So given Kaboly's track record we should rule out the Steelers, Chiefs, and Jets as destinations for Boyd.

 

[pistolpete11]

You're not wrong.

But I don't see a better place to start.

Ideally each answer sparks new questions that are then researched. Reynold was efficient with low end WR2 targets, but how did he and Detroit do when he had to be WR2? What routes is he running when that happens, does it change? How effective were the Steelers without Johnson? Etc.etc.

But answering those questions is a lot of work and I don't care that much. I can tell you the Lions' score per game was near identical with Reynolds as WR2 and the other guy as WR2, but I've lost the exact numbers and don't feel like working it out again, and in any case that number isn't definitely right as what if there were defensive scores?

That all said, I think people are overblowing the differences here. Reynolds is a guy who just put up similar boxscores to DJ off of a borderline WR2 workload. He'd be going from number 3/4 to target 3. Yes the Detroit offence was very good. I don't think they were so good that he should just fall apart in a league average offence, and whether that happens mostly falls on the OL/Smith/QB/Pickens/Muth. If Pickens can't handle being WR1, pretty much no WR2 is rescuing things. A borderline WR1, yeah, but it's been a while since Johnson did that in Pittsburgh which one of my main points.



Actually I am going to look up some numbers. Pickens in the 4 games without DJ last season.

33 targets (140 over a full season) 17 catches (72 catches over a full season) 357 yards (1517 yards over a full season) 2 TDs (8.5 over a full season)

Those numbers blow his full season numbers out of the water (except for the catches, which are better but woof that's not good). And he did that with Pickett and Canada, with Robinson and Heyward to draw attention, and he did that vs 4 teams that ended up in the top 15 for points against and yards against. 3 of the 4 games were close so not much garbage time (and that one game that was close is the one game he got shut down).

Obviously a small sample. Obviously the increased physical workload might wear at him over a full season.

But just as a sample of how much Diontae Johnson's ability to draw attention meant to Pickens, it comes back strong on "not a lot". Replacing Johnson does not seem to involve replacing a vital magnet that made other players better at first glance.

This is why I've been saying a WR in R1 or even R2 is overkill. They have a WR1 in Pickens and I really don't understand why some people don't think they do. Just give him the ball more. With a better scheme and a better QB, his numbers would be right up there with some of the best WR in league.

A WR2 better than Boyd or Reynolds would be ideal, but it's just not a priority when you've got Dan Moore penciled in as your starting LT and a giant ? at C. I've always been a believer in building from the inside-out and have been pounding the table that they need to address it since Pouncey and DeCastro retired. This is only amplified by the fact they are going to be looking to run the ball a lot this year.

So given Kaboly's track record we should rule out the Steelers, Chiefs, and Jets as destinations for Boyd.

The Chiefs I get. The Jets? Why the Jets?

I mean, Rodgers is going to be out there on the campaign trail for the first few months of the season anyway

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Isn’t it funny that DJ was a bad influence on GP but Tomlin was hugging and smiling at them both all season

 

[pistolpete11]

Isn’t it funny that DJ was a bad influence on GP but Tomlin was hugging and smiling at them both all season

What's funny is that you're the one saying that. Most of us have been criticizing Tomlin for that for years and years and you routinely defend Tomlin.

 

[xlm34]

Yeah I think Boyd or Reynolds would be fine for a WR2 in Arthur Smith’s system. I think either of them are capable of putting up 500/600 yards which is about all we can expect. It’s not great but Smith’s offense has never really been able to support a bunch of pass catchers. I figure the yard breakdown would be something like:

Pickens — 1100
WR2 — 550
Muth — 700
WR3 — 250
Harris/Warren — 500
Everyone else — 200

That puts you at 3300 yards which I think is a reasonable expectation for next year given the QB situation.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Should be an elite OT, CB, or WR option that gets pushed down to 20 because of the quality at those positions. I’d just sit and take the BPA of those groups.