The Paul Maurice Pitchfork Thread (MOD Warning Post #1)

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

The shots are misleading though. Like vs CBJ, expected goals were 3.5 for Florida, 2.5 for CBJ. 3.5 on 50 shots is terrible. Florida lost because of lack of execution and bad goaltending, but it wasn't domination. Tarasov was decent but not out of this world.

High danger chances until the last flurry and White goal were 6-5 for Florida. Moneypuck had CBJ at 40% chance of winning. Ultimately I don't put much on PoMo because our goalies can't make a save but it's not like Florida is destroying teams. This game was very similar to the game vs Arizona. Slightly outplaying a bad team and getting out goalied.

 

[pantherbot]

The shots are misleading though. Like vs CBJ, expected goals were 3.5 for Florida, 2.5 for CBJ. 3.5 on 50 shots is terrible. Florida lost because of lack of execution and bad goaltending, but it wasn't domination. Tarasov was decent but not out of this world.

High danger chances until the last flurry and White goal were 6-5 for Florida. Moneypuck had CBJ at 40% chance of winning. Ultimately I don't put much on PoMo because our goalies can't make a save but it's not like Florida is destroying teams. This game was very similar to the game vs Arizona. Slightly outplaying a bad team and getting goalied.

But so what? You can argue we should dominate CBJ more because their roster sucked, that's fine, but we were still clearly the better team even if you say we weren't playing great. We were down 5-2 because goaltending let us down, not because of something Maurice did or didn't do.

What do we need to do? have like double high danger chances vs. the other team to win? That's not going to happen on a consistent basis. We need stops in net.

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

Anyone but Bruno, right???

Who is he with now? They're probably a tire fire with him anywhere near their bench!

 

[BB88]

You’re seriously going by betting odds? Lulzzz cmon dude

Everyone and their mothers knew and was telling us that our D was garbage, and guess what, it is. Yet people here had us a shoe in for the playoffs guaranteed no questions….

Yeah we have some elite players, but we lack depth compared to last year…

Yes sure, we do take crappy shots, but we also have grade A scoring chances and we fumble it time and time again. I just don’t understand how it’s any coach’s fault that Barkov only has 4 goals and we’ve lacked finishing.

I agree that sticking to the Staals is terrible. But is it really on him/final say on who gets sent up or down? Isn’t it Zito’s call? Zito is also the one pushing the Staals….at that point might as well have saved money and just have Levtschi, Hutsko, Deni, or Hepo. And have Kiersted on D.

But I disagree with you on the key points that we have an elite team at the moment, we simply lack the depth and it clearly shows….plus our biggest problems of crappy finishing, bad goals from goalies, and a crappy D there’s so much any coach can do.

I’m just going by odds? No I’m not.
I’d just say that Vegas knows something about odds.

This team has Barkov, Tkachuk, Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Bennett, Lundell, Luostarinen, White at F.
That is absolutely loaded on talent vs your basic team.

I don’t think the team is elite, I’m again just saying that this team absolutely has elite talent. Saying otherwise is just foolish

I didn’t have an issue with trading Weegar, I wouldn’t have re-signed him.
My issue with Zito related to Weegar is trading Weegar and replacing him with Staal.

The F is absolutely a contender, net should be somewhere close and the defense is bottom10 on the paper.

Overall this team is not and should not be a top tier contender but they are seriously underperforming.

& Maurice has a part in it.
He did a terrible job with loaded Winnipeg roster and has done absolutely nothing to change my views on him when he got signed

 

[ScottyMascotty]

 

[pantherbot]

I’m just going by odds? No I’m not.
I’d just say that Vegas knows something about odds.

This team has Barkov, Tkachuk, Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Bennett, Lundell, Luostarinen, White at F.
That is absolutely loaded on talent vs your basic team.

I don’t think the team is elite, I’m again just saying that this team absolutely has elite talent. Saying otherwise is just foolish

I didn’t have an issue with trading Weegar, I wouldn’t have re-signed him.
My issue with Zito related to Weegar is trading Weegar and replacing him with Staal.

The F is absolutely a contender, net should be somewhere close and the defense is bottom10 on the paper.

Overall this team is not and should not be a top tier contender but they are seriously underperforming.

& Maurice has a part in it.
He did a terrible job with loaded Winnipeg roster and has done absolutely nothing to change my views on him when he got signed

You've had a pretty clear anti Maurice bias from the start. But what has he done specifically that is leading to this roster to underperform? I haven't seen anyone come up with a good reason here.

 

[KW]

The whole thing is a f***ing perfect storm.

Mo not making roster changes to remove obvious loss causes.

Goalies not stopping a beach ball, especially at 5-hole and glove.

Top players not scoring at clear opportunities where other top players do.

Zito leaving no options and not bringing up young guns.

It’s f***ed up without good reason to be f***ed up, that’s what’s f***ed up about it.

 

[Panteras]

I’m just going by odds? No I’m not.
I’d just say that Vegas knows something about odds.

you're not going by odds, you're just saying Vegas knows about odds. This sounds like a George Bush speech lol

This team has Barkov, Tkachuk, Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Bennett, Lundell, Luostarinen, White at F.
That is absolutely loaded on talent vs your basic team.

I don’t think the team is elite, I’m again just saying that this team absolutely has elite talent. Saying otherwise is just foolish

Barkov and Tkachuk are "elite" if you will... Top 10-15 players in the league.
The rest are in the just "good"/"decent" players list... this is HARDLY a "loaded on talent" denomination we should be throwing around so freely.

Well you said we have a talented roster, which means the team overall. While we do have some talented players which I already mentioned literally in the post you quoted, we are not a talented team when taking everything into account. Our D and lack of overall depth like the one we had last year has brought us down to simply a "decent/mediocre" wild card team. This is perhaps the reality you're having issues with.

I didn’t have an issue with trading Weegar, I wouldn’t have re-signed him.
My issue with Zito related to Weegar is trading Weegar and replacing him with Staal.

I mean I don't have an issue with trading Weegar either.. Never even brought him up.
Sure, Staal is garbage and we should've probably just rolled with Carlsson or Kiersted if the plan was for this to be a transition year anyways. Save some money. But depth never hurts, it's just Staal wasn't it. I agree..

The F is absolutely a contender, net should be somewhere close and the defense is bottom10 on the paper.

Overall this team is not and should not be a top tier contender but they are seriously underperforming.

& Maurice has a part in it.
He did a terrible job with loaded Winnipeg roster and has done absolutely nothing to change my views on him when he got signed

Our offense is like 31st in SH% if I'm not mistaken. We can say they're under performing, snake bitten if you will. But how does Paul Maurice factor into this? This is where you still haven't provided a solid argument, just basically "POMO SUUUUUCKS AND CAN'T CHANGE MY MIND".....he did a terrible job with Winnipeg? Well holy shit you talking that good good being a fan of a team that only last season reached the second round for the first time since Clinton was president.. Pomo took Winnipeg to a Conference Finals at least and reached other conference finals and SC final during all that time.

 

[PSLguy]

For folks blaming PoMo for putting the Stall's on the ice, who should he put out there instead? It's not like he has a few healthy scratches sitting and watching the games. He only has the players on the bench. Blame Zito for that not PoMo.

Also for the record I was not on the Maurice bandwagon.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

You've had a pretty clear anti Maurice bias from the start. But what has he done specifically that is leading to this roster to underperform? I haven't seen anyone come up with a good reason here.

I think plenty of people have pointed to one very good reason:

Maurice is stressing an offensive style that wants to cycle around the boards and just slam low percentage shots on net, hoping for 'chaos' (his word) and rebound chances. I think this approach has a completely obvious correlation with the team's lousy shooting percentage.

When you are taking low quality shots just for the sake of shooting, you are going to have a low shooting percentage, that is simply reality.

 

[Felidae]

I do agree that the offense is not as dynamic as last season. It's nowhere near as bad, but we kinda look like how we played against Tampa in the PO. Outshooting opponents, lots of perimeter shots, although our net front presence is better with the addition of Tkachuk. I also think the product on the ice is boring. Nonetheless, we rank 11th in G/GP. I'd say that's pretty good considering a few factors like underperforming top liners, offensively absent 3rd line, and the loss of Marchment and Duclair.

At the end of the day though, it's not Paul Maurice's fault that the goaltending has been an absolute dumpster fire, which is the number 1 issue at the moment. I think it's the goalie coach who has the most say in who starts.

It's also not his fault he has to ice the Staal's due to lack of depth. (Though how much icetime he gives them can be argued)

 

[pantherbot]

I think plenty of people have pointed to one very good reason:

Maurice is stressing an offensive style that wants to cycle around the boards and just slam low percentage shots on net, hoping for 'chaos' (his word) and rebound chances. I think this approach has a completely obvious correlation with the team's lousy shooting percentage.

When you are taking low quality shots just for the sake of shooting, you are going to have a low shooting percentage, that is simply reality.

We're like 5th in goals for per 60 at 5v5. What's the problem exactly? Quantity or quality, what does it matter if we're scoring. If the goalies didn't shit the bed for three games in a row now, does this thread even get reactivated?

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

For folks blaming PoMo for putting the Stall's on the ice, who should he put out there instead? It's not like he has a few healthy scratches sitting and watching the games. He only has the players on the bench. Blame Zito for that not PoMo.

Also for the record I was not on the Maurice bandwagon.

We have waived significantly better players. Hell, I'd take anyone under 30 in the AHL over E Staal.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

We're like 5th in goals for per 60 at 5v5. What's the problem exactly? Quantity or quality, what does it matter if we're scoring. If the goalies didn't shit the bed for three games in a row now, does this thread even get reactivated?

In some of these recent losses the team has put up goals late in the game after it was basically over, to be fair.

 

[airbud]

On top of the low % shots, we're also bottom 5 in hits in the league with a game in hand on the other 4. The Devils are among that 5 as well, but it seems they're doing more of what we did last season and its been working for them. One last thing, brunette has an opt-out clause in his associate coach contract this year that allows him to leave for a head coach job if the opportunity presents itself. Maybe just maybe, Zito realizes Maurice shouldn't have been anywhere near this team from the get, eats a big bowl of crow and picks up the phone and do what he should have done last season and offer brunette the permanent position.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Underachieved with a loaded roster in Winnipeg.

Underperforming with talented roster in Florida.

Will still say that this move was Zitos biggest mistake, see Vegas, see Boston in comparison

Who should've been Panthers head coach if not Paul Maurice who has over 1000 NHL games under his belt
Should Panthers head coach in your opinion been Jukka Jalonen with 0 NHL games under his belt?

Do you realize at all how big risk it would've been
to bring in European coach who hasn't ever coached in North America.

If Jalonen would've sucked as badly as Maurice does right now
it would've meaned that same door opening also Zito would've got fired with Jalonen

I do understand that most Finns wanna see Jalonen getting coaching chance in NHL
with that record what he has achieved in Finnish national team but as great all those Jalonen's
merits are they don't matter jack-shit in NHL's coaching market
because NHL organisations do not care piece of shit about IIHF worlds.

Finland might have head coach in NHL some day but it'll be probably one of these guys
Olli Jokinen ( played over 1200 NHL regular season games )
Mikko Koivu ( played over 1000 NHL regular season games )
Valtteri Filppula ( played over 1000 NHL regular season games )
Toni Söderholm ( interested to coach NHL team one day )
Tuomo Ruutu ( Panthers assistant coach right now and played over 700 NHL regular season games )

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

If we're gonna fire Maurice after one season (I wouldn't mind this) and rehire a former coach, Brunette is not at the top of my list.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

But so what? You can argue we should dominate CBJ more because their roster sucked, that's fine, but we were still clearly the better team even if you say we weren't playing great. We were down 5-2 because goaltending let us down, not because of something Maurice did or didn't do.

What do we need to do? have like double high danger chances vs. the other team to win? That's not going to happen on a consistent basis. We need stops in net.

Not at all, I'm just posting that in reply to the people who keep posting charts saying Florida's "luck" will have to turn around. It's misleading. But they should have 6 more points than they do, if Florida gets goaltending they'll be fine. I'm not expecting some big offensive burst though.

 

[iam76]

Anyone but Bruno, right???

Who is he with now? They're probably a tire fire with him anywhere near their bench!

your not wrong.

Who should've been Panthers head coach if not Paul Maurice who has over 1000 NHL games under his belt
Should Panthers head coach in your opinion been Jukka Jalonen with 0 NHL games under his belt?

Do you realize at all how big risk it would've been
to bring in European coach who hasn't ever coached in North America.

If Jalonen would've sucked as badly as Maurice does right now
it would've meaned that same door opening also Zito would've got fired with Jalonen

I do understand that most Finns wanna see Jalonen getting coaching chance in NHL
with that record what he has achieved in Finnish national team but as great all those Jalonen's
merits are they don't matter jack-shit in NHL's coaching market
because NHL organisations do not care piece of shit about IIHF worlds.

Finland might have head coach in NHL some day but it'll be probably one of these guys
Olli Jokinen ( played over 1200 NHL regular season games )
Mikko Koivu ( played over 1000 NHL regular season games )
Valtteri Filppula ( played over 1000 NHL regular season games )
Toni Söderholm ( interested to coach NHL team one day )
Tuomo Ruutu ( Panthers assistant coach right now and played over 700 NHL regular season games )

I woulda went after the guy Vegas or bruins got

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

If we're gonna fire Maurice after one season (I wouldn't mind this) and rehire a former coach, Brunette is not at the top of my list.

We can all agree Bruno was not the perfect coach, but at least the games were fast, fun and entertaining.

He let young guys play and figure things out.

This season is just... so bad. A huge step back in terms of the on-ice watch-ability.

 

[RogerRoger]

With Quenneville, 2020-2021 shots per game: 34.9, first in the league. 3.6 High danger chances for per game, .910SV%
With Q+Brunette, 2021-2022 shots per game: 37.3, first in the league. 8.6 High danger chances for per game, 904SV%
With Maurice, 2022-2023 shots per game: 40.8, first in the league. 9.6 High danger chances for per game, 893SV%

We have been spamming shots since Boughner. Sure last year we had more breakout opportunities, but once we were in the zone it was ostensibly the same, board, shot, and hope for a rebound.

Our PP was miserable to begin with, but it's at 29% in the last ten games, which is very good. If it sustains anywhere close to that I'll be more than happy. What I blame him for is a mediocre PK and one of the most penalize team in the league. That's one area he controls that necessitate improvement.
Overall, that's where I expected this team to be at and what I expected of Maurice.

 

[pantherbot]

Not at all, I'm just posting that in reply to the people who keep posting charts saying Florida's "luck" will have to turn around. It's misleading. But they should have 6 more points than they do, if Florida gets goaltending they'll be fine. I'm not expecting some big offensive burst though.

Yeah but that "luck" people are talking about are based on calculations like high danger chances or more complicated offensive models. They aren't just saying our shot % is low, they're saying that the chances we have should be going in more. Maybe the argument here is that those models are wrong and our actual shots are lower danger than the models would suggest, and maybe that's actually true, but we're also a top-5 team in goals for per 60, so it's not like we're a bad offensive team.

I think you hit the real problem which is that we would have 3 more wins with just average goaltending.

 

[pantherbot]

In some of these recent losses the team has put up goals late in the game after it was basically over, to be fair.

I don't have score effect data so can't say how much that's impacted our offensive numbers, but even if you were to say there were huge score effects, maybe we're a top 10 team instead of top 5, which is still pretty good? I just feel like this argument for poor shot selection is trying to find a problem that isn't there because we're losing. It's pretty clear that with even average goaltending we'd have at least another 2-3 wins if not more.

 

[KW]

Yeah, just like they say in politics: “it’s the goaltending, stupid”.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

With Quenneville, 2020-2021 shots per game: 34.9, first in the league. 3.6 High danger chances for per game, .910SV%
With Q+Brunette, 2021-2022 shots per game: 37.3, first in the league. 8.6 High danger chances for per game, 904SV%
With Maurice, 2022-2023 shots per game: 40.8, first in the league. 9.6 High danger chances for per game, 893SV%

We have been spamming shots since Boughner. Sure last year we had more breakout opportunities, but once we were in the zone it was ostensibly the same, board, shot, and hope for a rebound.

Our PP was miserable to begin with, but it's at 29% in the last ten games, which is very good. If it sustains anywhere close to that I'll be more than happy. What I blame him for is a mediocre PK and one of the most penalize team in the league. That's one area he controls that necessitate improvement.
Overall, that's where I expected this team to be at and what I expected of Maurice.

I appreciate your post and I agree that you've got a point, however, I just want to nitpick slightly here and be a huge dipshit for doing so:

I really dislike how 'high danger' chances are calculated. For instance, let's say that a puck rebounds into the slot and a player takes a whack at it. There might be 4 bodies stacked up, making it completely impossible to get the puck on the net... but it doesn't matter, that's still a 'high danger' scoring chance.

Also, when you're shooting the puck 2 feet wide of the net or directly into the goalie's chest (a problem for everyone on this team not named Verhaeghe right now), then that's also a little misleading.