Blue Jays Discussion: The official Davis Schneider Appreciation Society

[Suntouchable13]

I really want them to give Clement a chance so we can see if he can be a Whit replacement. Clement at 2B, Schneider at LF in 2023? Horowitz can play DH and replace Belt. Varsho full time CF. Ryu will walk. But Re-sign Chapman imo. 5-6 WAR is way too hard to replace. Barger will make the team as a bench bat. Hicks is the biggest wild card.

Man, it will be tough to see KK go. I am torn on Chappy. It is just sometimes it is hard watching his ABs with him whiffing so much. And the power is kinda down in terms of homers. Defensively, though, he is the most consistent there

 

[canucksfan]

Seems like Bichette is progressing well

 

[phillipmike]

Yes but we’re referring to what they can potentially provide. The Jays were looking for some return to form similar to Yates’ years previous to 2020. You’re banking on Cimber returning to form similar to his years prior to 2023. Hence why I said 2019 Yates vs 2022 Cimber.

The depth between 2021 Jays pen and 2023 Jays pen is unmatched. Cimber’s been declining and wasn’t missing any bats this year. Jackson isn’t even pencilled in for a pen spot next year and I listed 10 names that could compete for a spot in ST. Green, while having not thrown a major league inning yet, has done what is needed through his rehab so far. Plus I feel way more confident with his ability and pedigree compared to Cimber.

The difference is you are going almost 2 years back on Yates (when the Jays signed him in 2021 based on his 2019 season) and Cimber was good just 8-10 months ago.

You arent comparing the 2021 to 2023 pens. You are comparing 2021 to what a 2024 pen should look like and you have 2 months of baseball to play, plus playoffs and an offseason. Make a decision to get rid of Cimber in August based on potentially paying him a modest $3M in 2024 seems foolish.

You say Cimber is declining, well if thats true, Yates was declining in 2021 when the Jays signed him. So a moot point.

You name all these pitches you may have for 2024, but as i said you can never have enough depth. At the moment, we have only 3 relievers from the OD roster currently active with Mayza, Swanson and Garcia which proves that.

Cimber was your 2nd best reliever last year and now is hurt. That can easily happen to Mayza or Swanson next year. You plan for worst case.

You dont need to pick one over the other, Cimber still has options and so do other guys. But if Cimber healthy, im easily taking him over guys like Jackson, and Pearson. He is a guy you can use to get lefties and righties out and he can be depended on in leverage.

If everyone is healthy, I'm going with;

Romano
Mayza
Swanson
Garcia
Richards
Cimber
Cabrera
Green

 

[Eyedea]

The difference is you are going almost 2 years back on Yates (when the Jays signed him in 2021 based on his 2019 season) and Cimber was good just 8-10 months ago.

You arent comparing the 2021 to 2023 pens. You are comparing 2021 to what a 2024 pen should look like and you have 2 months of baseball to play, plus playoffs and an offseason. Make a decision to get rid of Cimber in August based on potentially paying him a modest $3M in 2024 seems foolish.

You say Cimber is declining, well if thats true, Yates was declining in 2021 when the Jays signed him. So a moot point.

What?

Yates was elite in 2019. Better than any year of Cimber's career. He was hurt in 2020 with back issues and elbow chip/spurs. He pitched 4.1 innings. There was no obvious sign of decline. They signed him in 2021, what, 15-16 months after his 2019 season? Not sure why you're going 2 entire years back when the 2019 season doesn't end in January 2019.

Cimber was good last year, but the peripherals trended downward from the year prior. He was giving up harder contact, and his ERA was almost a full run below his xERA. Look at his savant page, his EV, xSLG, hard hit% and even barrel rate took a tumble. Even if you are to assume that his troubles this year were entirely injury related (back/rhomboid then shoulder) it doesn't mean he wasn't showing worrying signs prior to this year. Yates didn't shown any signs of decline prior to his 2020 injury laden season.

When Cimber is ready to go in spring 2024, how long ago would his good performances be?

This isn't to say that Cimber at 3.5-4.5m is terrible business, but I literally just mentioned 10 guys in the minors that have similar if not better projections moving forward.

 

[Puckstuff]

Man, it will be tough to see KK go. I am torn on Chappy. It is just sometimes it is hard watching his ABs with him whiffing so much. And the power is kinda down in terms of homers. Defensively, though, he is the most consistent there

I would be open to bringing KK back if the price was right. He has grit and leadership and obviously amazing on D. I'd expect the offence to cool off next year by just a bit, so a multi-year deal would make me a bit nervous.

 

[phillipmike]

What?

Yates was elite in 2019. Better than any year of Cimber's career. He was hurt in 2020 with back issues and elbow chip/spurs. He pitched 4.1 innings. There was no obvious sign of decline. They signed him in 2021, what, 15-16 months after his 2019 season? Not sure why you're going 2 entire years back when the 2019 season doesn't end in January 2019.

Cimber was good last year, but the peripherals trended downward from the year prior. He was giving up harder contact, and his ERA was almost a full run below his xERA. Look at his savant page, his EV, xSLG, hard hit% and even barrel rate took a tumble. Even if you are to assume that his troubles this year were entirely injury related (back/rhomboid then shoulder) it doesn't mean he wasn't showing worrying signs prior to this year. Yates didn't shown any signs of decline prior to his 2020 injury laden season.

When Cimber is ready to go in spring 2024, how long ago would his good performances be?

This isn't to say that Cimber at 3.5-4.5m is terrible business, but I literally just mentioned 10 guys in the minors that have similar if not better projections moving forward.

Id like to know what projection system predicts 10 guys under Jays control for 2024 to be better than Cimber - let alone 10 guys in the minors;

Zips 3 year projections:
Swanson: 2.2 fWAR
Pearson: 1.9 fWAR
Romano: 1.5 fWAR
Green: 1.5 fWAR
Richards: 1.4 fWAR
Cabrera: 1.4 fWAR
Cimber: 1.1 fWAR
Mayza: 1.1 fWAR
Jackson; 1.1 fWAR
Pop: 0.3 fWAR
Garcia: 0.0 fWAR

 

[Eyedea]

Id like to know what projection system predicts 10 guys under Jays control for 2024 to be better than Cimber - let alone 10 guys in the minors;

Zips 3 year projections:
Swanson: 2.2 fWAR
Pearson: 1.9 fWAR
Romano: 1.5 fWAR
Green: 1.5 fWAR
Richards: 1.4 fWAR
Cabrera: 1.4 fWAR
Cimber: 1.1 fWAR
Mayza: 1.1 fWAR
Jackson; 1.1 fWAR
Pop: 0.3 fWAR
Garcia: 0.0 fWAR

2025 Projections - Steamer (RoS) | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Steamer/Depth charts. Even his updated ZiPS projections have him 10th (out of 10) relievers for the Jays. Those ZiPS 3 year projections aren't even matching with his updated in-season numbers. Doubt those are accurate now.

 

[canucksfan]

Just to add to the discussion, this assumes the Jays don't go and add a bullpen arm or two. I wouldn't keep Cimber even if they don't add.

On a similar topic, it will be nice going into the offseason without a pressing need to add pitching. Rotation will be set and Tiedemann as depth.

 

[phillipmike]

2025 Projections - Steamer (RoS) | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Steamer/Depth charts. Even his updated ZiPS projections have him 10th (out of 10) relievers for the Jays. Those ZiPS 3 year projections aren't even matching with his updated in-season numbers. Doubt those are accurate now.

Doesnt hold much water for me when Cimber has outperformed his FIP in his entire Jays tenure and plus those are 2023 projections when he is currently hurt. I'm talking 2024 and outward.

 

[Eyedea]

Doesnt hold much water for me when Cimber has outperformed his FIP in his entire Jays tenure and plus those are 2023 projections when he is currently hurt. I'm talking 2024 and outward.

2024 and onward that don’t take injuries into consideration? Okay. Your 3 year rolling projections include 2023 btw.

Plus what kind of performance indicator suggests Cimber will be worth 0.1 fWAR in 2024 and then 0.7 fWAR in 2025 with an 11.65 K/9? There’s no way you honestly think that projection holds more weight.

 

[Discoverer]

I've been high on Cimber the last couple years, including heading into this season. It was only 20 innings, but he looked really bad. Even at his best he walked a fine line, but he took a couple steps back in every way this year: velocity down another notch (and slider velocity down 3 mph), not missing bats at all, Ks way down and BB way up, EV/barrels/hard hit % all way up from last year... it's only ~$3.5 million, but with the other relief options they have in the organization, I think you're way better off investing that elsewhere at this point.

 

[saska sault]

I would be open to bringing KK back if the price was right. He has grit and leadership and obviously amazing on D. I'd expect the offence to cool off next year by just a bit, so a multi-year deal would make me a bit nervous.

I'd go 2 year with team option, heavier salary in the first year for his security. If he can hold his own with the bat, he earns the 2nd year. He seems to fit in really nice and seems like a guy we want if we can get a playoff run going.

 

[canucksfan]

Kasevich has done well in the last month or so. He's walking more than he's striking out. Very good average and his ISO is .164 which is quite an improvement. If he can develop some power and maintain it, he will be a very solid prospect.

 

[Eyedea]

Kasevich has done well in the last month or so. He's walking more than he's striking out. Very good average and his ISO is .164 which is quite an improvement. If he can develop some power and maintain it, he will be a very solid prospect.

Same with Doughty. Obviously his hit tool is a little more raw but after his slow start he’s picked it up and is running a ~130 wRC+ since May and 159 since July 1st.

We’ve documented De Jesus’ improvements too and he’s kept it up since May/June. Even though Dasan and GMart have had up and down years I think we’ve seen some tremendous strides from that absolutely inept start to the year for the farm bats.

 

[canucksfan]

Same with Doughty. Obviously his hit tool is a little more raw but after his slow start he’s picked it up and is running a ~130 wRC+ since May and 159 since July 1st.

We’ve documented De Jesus’ improvements too and he’s kept it up since May/June. Even though Dasan and GMart have had up and down years I think we’ve seen some tremendous strides from that absolutely inept start to the year for the farm bats.

Definitely. The first month or so was brutal, with Tiedemann injured, Martinez batting around .050, Barger injured and struggling.

I think the biggest disappointments in the Jays system have been Barriera, mostly due to injury, and Toman. Toman has struggled with the bat.

 

[phillipmike]

2024 and onward that don’t take injuries into consideration? Okay. Your 3 year rolling projections include 2023 btw.

Plus what kind of performance indicator suggests Cimber will be worth 0.1 fWAR in 2024 and then 0.7 fWAR in 2025 with an 11.65 K/9? There’s no way you honestly think that projection holds more weight.

My mistake, i thought it was 2024-2026. Didnt realize it included 2023.

I would say its better than the 2023 Steamer projection that you included predicting 7 innings for Cimber.

Cimber was the Jays' 2nd most valuable reliever to only Romano in 2021-2022. Im not willing to let him go for nothing based off 1 injury plague season. At $3M, you could do a lot worse for a reliever who has a history of getting both lefties and righties out in leverage.

 

[Eyedea]

Definitely. The first month or so was brutal, with Tiedemann injured, Martinez batting around .050, Barger injured and struggling.

I think the biggest disappointments in the Jays system have been Barriera, mostly due to injury, and Toman. Toman has struggled with the bat.

Yeah I don't think Barriera has been terrible, but the injuries (shut down again) and showing up to camp with a significant amount of bad weight added has been disappointing. This coming after his big response at the draft to all of the other orgs that passed on him.

 

[Eyedea]

My mistake, i thought it was 2024-2026. Didnt realize it included 2023.

I would say its better than the 2023 Steamer projection that you included predicting 7 innings for Cimber.

Cimber was the Jays' 2nd most valuable reliever to only Romano in 2021-2022. Im not willing to let him go for nothing based off 1 injury plague season. At $3M, you could do a lot worse for a reliever who has a history of getting both lefties and righties out in leverage.

To each his own of course but I think he's closer to that 2023 projection than that ridiculous 2025 one lol. Honestly every 2025 projection looks absolutely nuts (look at Romano and Swanson as other examples).

 

[MS]

I just don't think - and this goes for hockey as well - that banking on bounce-back years for guys in their mid-30s is good business or smart betting. The odd time it does happen (Belt this year has worked out) but in most cases when a guy is 32, 33, 34 and shows a big statistical decline it's the start of a permanent trend.

Also I don't think that contending teams have guys throwing 87 or 88 MPH fastballs out of their bullpen and feel like we've moved past that this year.

 

[Eyedea]

I just don't think - and this goes for hockey as well - that banking on bounce-back years for guys in their mid-30s is good business or smart betting. The odd time it does happen (Belt this year has worked out) but in most cases when a guy is 32, 33, 34 and shows a big statistical decline it's the start of a permanent trend.

Also I don't think that contending teams have guys throwing 87 or 88 MPH fastballs out of their bullpen and feel like we've moved past that this year.

Only other similar pitcher to him is Tyler Rogers but he's been in the 90-100 percentile for EV and barrels for 4 years now. No signs of decline from him, and he has one of the best sliders in baseball.

 

[canucksfan]

Big loss for the Rays

 

[MS]

Big loss for the Rays

TB are quietly only 17-24 in their last 41 and are living off of their April record - basically .500 since they started 27-6.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Big loss for the Rays

Excellent news for us. We won't have to face a healthy McClanhan in a wildcard series.

But man, finishing 1 or 2 in the wildcard is not a great incentive. The winner will get Baltimore. I think staying 3rd is better. Going through AL Central winner and Texas is more preferred. We will see how things shake down.

 

[canucksfan]

Excellent news for us. We won't have to face a healthy McClanhan in a wildcard series.

But man, finishing 1 or 2 in the wildcard is not a great incentive. The winner will get Baltimore. I think staying 3rd is better. Going through AL Central winner and Texas is more preferred. We will see how things shake down.

Playing the Twins would likely be better but Astros could finish above the Rangers.

The only thing I do not want is a series against Tampa on the road.

 

[Eyedea]

Twins have had one of the best 2nd half offences and a solid rotation.

By the numbers the Rays would probably be the “easiest” opponent in a current playoff spot. But it’s the Rays.