Blue Jays Discussion: The official Danny Jackson Appreciation Society

[TheBeastCoast]

He's not meeting the ultra high expectations that are placed on him no doubt but he's not playing bad.

Kirk on the other hand is doing almost nothing well at the plate and he has way too much glove movement behind the plate for my liking right now.

I don't think an expectation of Vlad being over 800 OPS guy season over season is honestly an ultra high expectation. His talent level he should be living at that level year over year. Kirk has just been straight up bad no questions there.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

 

[Discoverer]

I'm not sure what else to call it though. If as you said your default is Fwar but in this case you are mum on his Fwar (I know you've looked it up too) and choose to selectively present a stat you use less frequently, then what else would you call that if not cherry-picking? Is that not the very definition?

He's a great defender but he plays mostly left field. Ignore the often contradictory and always flawed defensive metrics, and ask yourself - how likely is it that a corner outfielder would be the most valuable defender in the majors?

ps: I like Varsho's bunt singles, but objectively, they have to have less value than regular singles as they're far less likely to advance a runner multiple bases.

Oh I don't deny it was cherry-picking. It was a dumb argument meant to show the opposite end of another dumb argument. Usually in a case where there's such a big discrepancy in defensive stats I would look at a combination of both, so it would have been fair to say he's been worth something like 1.0-1.5 WAR this year.

I also didn't say he's been the most valuable defender in the league, just that he's been the best by DRS. He leads the league in DRS, but once you add in the positional adjustment he drops down a bit.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Bjindaho]

Scott Mitchell: Mid-season top 50 Toronto Blue Jays prospects and trade chips | TSN

TSN Blue Jays Reporter Scott Mitchell provides a mid-season update on his top 50 prospects in the Jays’ system and examines potential minor-league trade chips heading into the trade deadline.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Cor]

The #STLCards have traded Genésis Cabrera to the Blue Jays in exchange for minor-league catching prospect Sammy Hernandez. Cabrera was DFA’d by St. Louis on Monday.

 

[Cor]

This acquisition should mean the end of Mitch White hopefully.

 

[Bjindaho]

Since it isn't displaying,

Blue Jays Acquire Génesis Cabrera From Cardinals

The Blue Jays have acquired left-hander Génesis Cabrera from the Cardinals, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The Cards had …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

Also, like I mentioned earlier, there is upside to him.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Cardinals Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

Genesis Cabrera

LHP, St. Louis Cardinals

AGE: 26

BATS: L

DOB: 10/10/1996

THROWS: L

HT: 6' 2"

WT: 180

A skinny, undersized left-hander with big arm strength when he signed with the Rays for $34,000 in November 2013, Cabrera has steadily grown into his wiry-athletic frame in the pro ranks and had his stuff tick up as a result. He reached Double-A for the first time as a 20-year-old in 2017 and he was having a solid campaign in his return to the Southern League the next year when the Cardinals acquired him as part of the Tommy Pham Deadline deal. Though he pitched to mixed results as a starter at Triple-A Memphis in 2019 and struggled in his first two starts with St. Louis (6.45 ERA), Cabrera fared much better as a reliever when he rejoined the Cardinals in mid-June and ultimately earned a spot on the club’s postseason roster after posting a 3.12 ERA across eight appearances as a September callup.

Cabrera generates easy velocity with a lightning-quick arm and explosive delivery, but he’s still learning how to harness his electric stuff and throw strikes. The mid-90s fastball he shows as a starter plays up in shorter bursts, and he topped out at 99 mph while averaging 96.4 mph with the Cardinals in 2019. He has swapped his power slider for a slower, more distinct curveball that flashes above average in the low- to mid-80s with a good spin rate and downer action. He also throws a changeup in the upper-80s that right-handed hitters struggle to square up.

Cabrera was able to trim his walk rate last season in Triple-A, but he struggles to consistently deliver quality strikes because he has a violent delivery that makes his over-the-top arm slot difficult to repeat. That, in turn, leads to questions about the southpaw’s future role, with many pegging him as a reliever long term. The Cardinals still believe in Cabrera as a starter and will develop him as such in 2020, knowing that they can easily slot him into their Major League bullpen if his control doesn’t improve.

 

[Bjindaho]

If we're looking for a buy low insurance in the rotation, Cal Quantrill is projected to regress barring some adjustments and comes with control.

 

[phillipmike]

The #STLCards have traded Genésis Cabrera to the Blue Jays in exchange for minor-league catching prospect Sammy Hernandez. Cabrera was DFA’d by St. Louis on Monday.

Awesome, I mentioned him in the off-season in a potential Jansen trade and again not too long ago when he got DFA'd.

Lefty with big K potential and average 96. He aveaged 98 in 2021 (1.2 fWAR) so could get back up there and most importantly has an option left.

The Book on Génesis

The Cardinals’ poor pitching performance is especially baffling given Génesis Cabrera’s emergence as a stud reliever.

blogs.fangraphs.com

In the beginning, there was nothing. Wait, no, that’s not right — in the beginning, there was Tommy Pham. Yeah, now we’re talking. In the beginning there was Tommy Pham. Then John Mozeliak said, “Let there be a trade,” and Pham decamped for Tampa Bay, San Diego, Cincinnati, Boston, and eventually New York. In exchange, the Cardinals got a sampler platter of minor prospects: Justin Williams, Roel Ramírez, and Génesis Cabrera.

Williams and Ramírez are long gone from the St. Louis organization, but Cabrera is still going strong. That might have oversold it coming into the year — in 157.1 innings across 142 games, Cabrera had compiled a 3.95 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 0.4 fWAR. That’s hardly an imposing line, but the Cardinals hardly had an imposing bullpen, so he fit solidly into the middle of that group heading into 2023.

He’s only pitched 11 times in 2023, but those 11 times have been revelatory. Nineteen of the 45 opponents he’s faced have struck out. Only three have walked. That’s no fluke, either; he’s so deceptive and so hard to square up that he’s recorded more called or swinging strikes than he has balls this year, by a count of 68 to 60.

Also it may have got lost a few days ago but Cimber was transferred to the 60 day IL. Not good for him, but thankfully we have arms.

C Sammy Hernandez isnt a nobody though. Got the 6th highest bonus from all Jays draft picks in last year's draft, only guys to get more; Barriera, Toman, Kasevich, Doughty, ROden and Fluharty. But has a tough start to his minor league career, However, he is only 19 and the Cards have great success with catchers from Puerto Rico.

 

[Discoverer]

If they can figure out the command even just a little bit, that could be a nice addition. It's basically the equivalent to the O's adding Fujinami the other day - big velocity and whiff rate, but that's about it.

I thought they still had the Cimber spot open, but it looks like the 40-man is full right now, so unless I'm missing something, something else will have to follow today to make room. I guess White makes the most sense at this point since he's out of options, then at least Cabrera can be sent down when Ryu/Green are ready.

 

[Bjindaho]

If they can figure out the command even just a little bit, that could be a nice addition. It's basically the equivalent to the O's adding Fujinami the other day - big velocity and whiff rate, but that's about it.

I thought they still had the Cimber spot open, but it looks like the 40-man is full right now, so unless I'm missing something, something else will have to follow today to make room. I guess White makes the most sense at this point since he's out of options, then at least Cabrera can be sent down when Ryu/Green are ready.

Cimber's spot went to Luplow.

Cabrera should spell the end of White.

 

[Discoverer]

Cimber's spot went to Luplow.

Cabrera should spell the end of White.

Ahhh ok... I thought he was still on the 40-man from when he was up earlier in the year.

 

[canucksfan]

Thornton should be let go or Hatch

 

[Suntouchable13]

Luplow looked like a natural there during the outfielder’s group hug celebration after the game yesterday. Really learning fast!

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Bjindaho]

Thornton should be let go or Hatch

You never get rid of guys with options who can pitch in the minors when you'd have to send someone down and risk losing them anyway.

 

[red devil]

Thornton should be let go or Hatch

 

[Discoverer]

I assume Cabrera will just be stashed in Buffalo for now until they need an arm or he forces his way up. He's basically just an upgrade on Thornton/Hatch as a depth reliever.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Bjindaho]

Umm, none of that is correct.

He's a lefty, who should stop throwing his slider and keep the fastball, curveball, change.

 

[canucksfan]

Umm, none of that is correct.

He's a lefty, who should stop throwing his slider and keep the fastball, curveball, change.

Really? He did correct himself and said lefty. He works for Fangraphs and athletic so I thought it would be credible.

 

[Bjindaho]

Really? He did correct himself and said lefty. He works for Fangraphs and athletic so I thought it would be credible.

His downturn happens to correspond to him throwing his slider more.

He might be able to control it more, but it isn't a very good pitch. He needs one of the other two to find control. Heck, I would send him down and tell him to throw almost exclusively CB and CHG for a game or two.

Edit: The other option would be to have him switch from being 4 seam heavy to 2 seam heavy like Mayza (the 4 seam and slider would naturally follow a similar plane and are 6 mph different, so each makes the other worse if he is throwing both).

 

[Discoverer]

His downturn happens to correspond to him throwing his slider more.

He might be able to control it more, but it isn't a very good pitch. He needs one of the other two to find control. Heck, I would send him down and tell him to throw almost exclusively CB and CHG for a game or two.

Edit: The other option would be to have him switch from being 4 seam heavy to 2 seam heavy like Mayza (the 4 seam and slider would naturally follow a similar plane and are 6 mph different, so each makes the other worse if he is throwing both).

He sucked plenty last year before working the slider into his repertoire.

I won't pretend to know much about pitch usage and run values and that kind of stuff, but it looks like all of his pitches (except the slider, which is new this year) have ranged between excellent and awful over the last few years. Considering how much he struggles with control, I assume the best bet would be to make him a two-pitch pitcher and get him to work on harnessing those instead of the varied repertoire that hasn't really gotten him anywhere so far.