Player Discussion The Official Brock Boeser Risk Management Thread

[LemonSauceD]

Even about a month ago I was still on the re sign Boeser hill but that’s quickly changed. We can’t afford to re sign Boeser to $7.5M+ he’s going to want considering the amount of holes we have on defense. If we get someone like Byram or any other RFA dman, we are gonna need money to re sign them after the season. There’s also Lankinen in which we should 100% prioritize signing and he’ll likely come at another 3-4M.

There’s no way we can afford to keep Boeser.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Even about a month ago I was still on the re sign Boeser hill but that’s quickly changed. We can’t afford to re sign Boeser to $7.5M+ he’s going to want considering the amount of holes we have on defense. If we get someone like Byram or any other RFA dman, we are gonna need money to re sign them after the season. There’s also Lankinen in which we should 100% prioritize signing and he’ll likely come at another 3-4M.

There’s no way we can afford to keep Boeser.

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

 

[Hodgy]

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

Ya, I think an argument could be made that this team doesn't have enough top end talent, and I think I agree. And if you are of that view, then, unless you can find a better scorer than Boeser, I think you probably need to sign him and upgrade the defense at the expense of winger depth up front.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

In much the same way I feel there’s no way we win a trade involving Petey, I simply don’t see how we replace what Boeser brings for the same or less money.

He’s a character guy good for 30ish goals and shines in the playoffs. We need to re-sign him. I get the thinking of “replace him internally”, but no one is close to being ready to step into his shoes.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I just know that any reasonable extension for BB6 will have me anxious about the eventual drop off. It would be tough having a slow skating non-play-driving winger on the decline locked in at $7-8m for (what is likely to be) very long term. Cup contenders usually don't have too many bad contracts, even one of those can be a big/costly problem. Like most UFA contracts, all we can hope is that we get at least 3-4 "good" seasons out of him. I would really hate to have buyers remorse immediately (kind of like the Eriksson/Stamkos/Lucic type deals).

I think a team can still be competitive with strong centers, defense and goaltending, winger is the lowest on my priority list. Even if we can't replace Boeser completely, I still rather let him walk than to commit something like $8m x 8, feels like the same bullet we dodged with Lindholm (who also only really had 1 offensively great season in his career, much like Brock).

 

[F A N]

I just know that any reasonable extension for BB6 will have me anxious about the eventual drop off. It would be tough having a slow skating non-play-driving winger on the decline locked in at $7-8m for (what is likely to be) very long term. Cup contenders usually don't have too many bad contracts, even one of those can be a big/costly problem. Like most UFA contracts, all we can hope is that we get at least 3-4 "good" seasons out of him. I would really hate to have buyers remorse immediately (kind of like the Eriksson/Stamkos/Lucic type deals).

I think a team can still be competitive with strong centers, defense and goaltending, winger is the lowest on my priority list. Even if we can't replace Boeser completely, I still rather let him walk than to commit something like $8m x 8, feels like the same bullet we dodged with Lindholm (who also only really had 1 offensively great season in his career, much like Brock).

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

Yes, Boeser averaged roughly 30 goals and 65 points over his career so far, but that is in his peak and as a fixture on the top line with all the prime offensive opportunities and PP1 time. As he move past his peak, his scoring should naturally decline.

It is interesting you use Kessel as an example, even his last season with Pittsburgh he was a point per game player. His stats didn't fall off until he was traded to Arizona. Is the sudden and steep drop off due to his age, or is it due to an older vet not motivated to play for a rebuilding team? Work ethic was an issue with Kessel but it could also be said about Brock for a while.

I think a vast majority of the players decline as they are in the late 20s, moving into their 30s. There are always exceptions like Pavelski, and the elites like Crosby/Malkin/Ovi/Selanne usually remain productive, but the norm is that signing an aging forward long term is not a good bet to make.

Yes if the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow. There are and will be options for scoring wingers though, there always are.

 

[F A N]

Yes, Boeser averaged roughly 30 goals and 65 points over his career so far, but that is in his peak and as a fixture on the top line with all the prime offensive opportunities and PP1 time. As he move past his peak, his scoring should naturally decline.

Well ya. I certainly expect some decline in later years and fear steep declines. Miller will be 36 at the end of his contract and I certainly don't expect him to be a 90+ point #1C type at age 36. It's part of the business. You can't keep a soon to be 28 year old player like Boeser without paying him into his mid-30s. We signed DeBrusk to a 7 year contract where he will be 34 in his last year.

It is interesting you use Kessel as an example, even his last season with Pittsburgh he was a point per game player. His stats didn't fall off until he was traded to Arizona. Is the sudden and steep drop off due to his age, or is it due to an older vet not motivated to play for a rebuilding team? Work ethic was an issue with Kessel but it could also be said about Brock for a while.

I don't think Kessel's work ethic was an issue. I also don't recall many of us questioning Brock's work ethic. Brock always worked hard IMO.

I think a vast majority of the players decline as they are in the late 20s, moving into their 30s. There are always exceptions like Pavelski, and the elites like Crosby/Malkin/Ovi/Selanne usually remain productive, but the norm is that signing an aging forward long term is not a good bet to make.

But you're not signing an aging forward. 28 years old isn't aging. And the "bet" here isn't that the player would still be productive at age 35 but that he would be remain productive through his expected prime years with more of a gradual age-related decline.

Yes if the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow. There are and will be options for scoring wingers though, there always are.

It seems like you're talking about contention being this far off thing in the future. We're not rebuilding. We're not looking to contend in 5 years. A 28 year old Boeser certainly fits this team's perceived/desired window of contention just like Debrusk.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Well ya. I certainly expect some decline in later years and fear steep declines. Miller will be 36 at the end of his contract and I certainly don't expect him to be a 90+ point #1C type at age 36. It's part of the business. You can't keep a soon to be 28 year old player like Boeser without paying him into his mid-30s. We signed DeBrusk to a 7 year contract where he will be 34 in his last year.


I don't think Kessel's work ethic was an issue. I also don't recall many of us questioning Brock's work ethic. Brock always worked hard IMO.


But you're not signing an aging forward. 28 years old isn't aging. And the "bet" here isn't that the player would still be productive at age 35 but that he would be remain productive through his expected prime years with more of a gradual age-related decline.



It seems like you're talking about contention being this far off thing in the future. We're not rebuilding. We're not looking to contend in 5 years. A 28 year old Boeser certainly fits this team's perceived/desired window of contention just like Debrusk.

Yea like I said before, I believe the team will extend him and pray he remains productive for 2-4 seasons, go all-in during Hughes's contract, and deal with the rest later on. And the extension is a logical move in that sense.

I just personally don't feel comfortable with it, and it wouldn't be how I build the team. However, I'm fairly sure management will keep BB6. I'm just going to be hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

 

[SillyRabbit]

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

Last season was the year.

Pettersson at 7.35M
Boeser at 6.65M
Hughes at 7.85M
Miller at 8M
Demko at 5M
Hronek at 4.4M
Lindholm at 5.325M
Zadorov at 3.75M
Joshua at 1.625M

We had a really great cap situation with players outperforming their contracts before they became UFA's.

And of course, almost all of the above players were having career years in addition to their favorable cap hits.

The concept of a "window" is very important in the salary cap era and had Demko and Boeser been healthy, and Pettersson been his normal self, we definitely beat the Oilers and could've seen ourselves in the SCF.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Last season was the year.

Pettersson at 7.35M
Boeser at 6.65M
Hughes at 7.85M
Miller at 8M
Demko at 5M
Hronek at 4.4M
Lindholm at 5.325M
Zadorov at 3.75M
Joshua at 1.625M

We had a really great cap situation with players outperforming their contracts before they became UFA's.

And of course, almost all of the above players were having career years in addition to their favorable cap hits.

The concept of a "window" is very important in the salary cap era and had Demko and Boeser been healthy, and Pettersson been his normal self, we definitely beat the Oilers and could've seen ourselves in the SCF.

 

[F A N]

Yea like I said before, I believe the team will extend him and pray he remains productive for 2-4 seasons, go all-in during Hughes's contract, and deal with the rest later on. And the extension is a logical move in that sense.

I just personally don't feel comfortable with it, and it wouldn't be how I build the team. However, I'm fairly sure management will keep BB6. I'm just going to be hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

I get that you don't feel comfortable re-signing Boeser for 8 years. But you keep saying "If the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow." Like if you were in charge when would you have the Canucks contend? Like next summer, if you're talking about UFA forwards, the top forwards under 30 aside from Boeser are Rantanen, Marner, and Ehlers. Even if he is available, you're not getting Rantanen for less than Petey money. Marner is going to demand similar money. Ehlers will be comparatively affordable but Ehlers has 4 goals, 14 points in 37 playoff games. Boeser had 7 goals
12 points in 12 games last playoffs. Add in the other intangibles and why wouldn't we keep Boeser?

Then there's the fact that we have to make decisions on other players as well. Garland, Suter, and Sherwood only have one year left on their deals. You want to bet on Lekkerimaki replacing Boeser and go from there?

Name the last Stanley Cup winner that didn't have a winger who typically scores at a 30+ goal pace? Arguably Vegas but Marchessault scored 30 the previous year, 28 during the Cup year (in 76 games), and scored 42 the next year. They also have Mark Stone, who while never scoring 30 goals, was widely considered to be one of the elite wingers in the league. Maybe Penguins' Cups? They did have Kessel and Malkin spent time on the wing. Maybe the Kings First Cup? They won their second Cup with Gaborik who was healthy for the playoffs. The point is you need guys talented enough to play with your star Cs just as you need a good partner for your Norris trophy winner Dman.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I get that you don't feel comfortable re-signing Boeser for 8 years. But you keep saying "If the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow." Like if you were in charge when would you have the Canucks contend? Like next summer, if you're talking about UFA forwards, the top forwards under 30 aside from Boeser are Rantanen, Marner, and Ehlers. Even if he is available, you're not getting Rantanen for less than Petey money. Marner is going to demand similar money. Ehlers will be comparatively affordable but Ehlers has 4 goals, 14 points in 37 playoff games. Boeser had 7 goals
12 points in 12 games last playoffs. Add in the other intangibles and why wouldn't we keep Boeser?

Then there's the fact that we have to make decisions on other players as well. Garland, Suter, and Sherwood only have one year left on their deals. You want to bet on Lekkerimaki replacing Boeser and go from there?

Name the last Stanley Cup winner that didn't have a winger who typically scores at a 30+ goal pace? Arguably Vegas but Marchessault scored 30 the previous year, 28 during the Cup year (in 76 games), and scored 42 the next year. They also have Mark Stone, who while never scoring 30 goals, was widely considered to be one of the elite wingers in the league. Maybe Penguins' Cups? They did have Kessel and Malkin spent time on the wing. Maybe the Kings First Cup? They won their second Cup with Gaborik who was healthy for the playoffs. The point is you need guys talented enough to play with your star Cs just as you need a good partner for your Norris trophy winner Dman.

There isn't much in the UFA pool that is an improvement on Boeser AND someone we can afford. I probably look into the trade options. There have been decent wingers that were acquired via trade in the past, that have gone for relatively cheap, but the best part is their contract usually has less term and/or lower cap hit. There are bound to be sellers near the TDL and/or after the season, we can potentially snatch one or two there.

I can't give you an example on who's available or not, as I'm obviously not working for any NHL team, but I rather pay the assets for a complementary winger, rather than paying long term to one that should be on the decline soon.

**Although I mentioned above that the trade option is one I prefer, some UFAs could also work well. Debrusk was signed for free at a lower cap hit than Boeser, and honestly he isn't that much worse than Brock. He is making roughly 80% of Boeser's CURRENT cap hit and is providing roughly 80% of the offense, so it's not like we absolutely have to extend Boeser to 8 years in order to get some scoring.

 

[F A N]

There isn't much in the UFA pool that is an improvement on Boeser AND someone we can afford. I probably look into the trade options. There have been decent wingers that were acquired via trade in the past, that have gone for relatively cheap, but the best part is their contract usually has less term and/or lower cap hit. There are bound to be sellers near the TDL and/or after the season, we can potentially snatch one or two there.

I can't give you an example on who's available or not, as I'm obviously not working for any NHL team, but I rather pay the assets for a complementary winger, rather than paying long term to one that should be on the decline soon.

So essentially you're proposing paying assets to acquire a player who simply has less years left on his contract. That's a fair strategy but we're not a team coming out of a rebuild flush with assets to trade. And if you're talking about long term contending, trading a 1st and or top prospect for the purpose of acquiring a close to Boeser quality player and save on term and a bit of cap hit that will affect contending. Of course we can even things out by trading Boeser and using those assets to acquire another winger. The difficult is that while trade opportunities are out there, not a lot of teams are trading a winger coming off a 30+ goal season who has say 4-5 years left on a contract paying him $4-6M.

Trade wise we've only made a few great deals for forwards in our history. Nasland, Bertuzzi, and Miller comes to mind. Building your team planning on acquiring Boeser-quality players who is younger, makes less, and on a mid term deal is not really a plan.

**Although I mentioned above that the trade option is one I prefer, some UFAs could also work well. Debrusk was signed for free at a lower cap hit than Boeser, and honestly he isn't that much worse than Brock. He is making roughly 80% of Boeser's CURRENT cap hit and is providing roughly 80% of the offense, so it's not like we absolutely have to extend Boeser to 8 years in order to get some scoring.

But if you're concerned about term, you're only talking about 1-2 year difference here. DeBrusk is 4 months older than Boeser and his deal is for 7 years and started this year instead of next. I liked the DeBrusk signing because the cap hit was low but he was coming off a 19 goal 40 point season. Boeser had 40 goal 73 point season and before his concussion it looks like he was on pace to come close to that. Obviously if management isn't confident about paying Boeser close to what he realistically deserves then we should trade him.

But for discussions sake, who are the comparable Debrusk wingers that have been available? Bertuzzi/Domi/Bunting two seasons ago? 3 seasons ago we signed Mikheyev. There actually aren't a whole lot of DeBrusk calibre players available as a UFA in the first place and the contracts we gave DeBrusk and Mik were subtantial regardless of how it worked out.

Brock is also great in the locker room. Quinn, Petey, Miller they all like him.

 

[604]

Even about a month ago I was still on the re sign Boeser hill but that’s quickly changed. We can’t afford to re sign Boeser to $7.5M+ he’s going to want considering the amount of holes we have on defense. If we get someone like Byram or any other RFA dman, we are gonna need money to re sign them after the season. There’s also Lankinen in which we should 100% prioritize signing and he’ll likely come at another 3-4M.

There’s no way we can afford to keep Boeser.

To be clear, you’re prioritizing the backup goalie over our top winger?

If you need to, you start getting rid of guys like Myers and Joshua to fit a small raise for Boeser. Ideally you get Boeser at near the same price and sacrifice Myers and Joshua for an upgrade on D.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

So essentially you're proposing paying assets to acquire a player who simply has less years left on his contract. That's a fair strategy but we're not a team coming out of a rebuild flush with assets to trade. And if you're talking about long term contending, trading a 1st and or top prospect for the purpose of acquiring a close to Boeser quality player and save on term and a bit of cap hit that will affect contending. Of course we can even things out by trading Boeser and using those assets to acquire another winger. The difficult is that while trade opportunities are out there, not a lot of teams are trading a winger coming off a 30+ goal season who has say 4-5 years left on a contract paying him $4-6M.

Trade wise we've only made a few great deals for forwards in our history. Nasland, Bertuzzi, and Miller comes to mind. Building your team planning on acquiring Boeser-quality players who is younger, makes less, and on a mid term deal is not really a plan.



But if you're concerned about term, you're only talking about 1-2 year difference here. DeBrusk is 4 months older than Boeser and his deal is for 7 years and started this year instead of next. I liked the DeBrusk signing because the cap hit was low but he was coming off a 19 goal 40 point season. Boeser had 40 goal 73 point season and before his concussion it looks like he was on pace to come close to that. Obviously if management isn't confident about paying Boeser close to what he realistically deserves then we should trade him.

But for discussions sake, who are the comparable Debrusk wingers that have been available? Bertuzzi/Domi/Bunting two seasons ago? 3 seasons ago we signed Mikheyev. There actually aren't a whole lot of DeBrusk calibre players available as a UFA in the first place and the contracts we gave DeBrusk and Mik were subtantial regardless of how it worked out.

Brock is also great in the locker room. Quinn, Petey, Miller they all like him.

It depends how much you value 1) cap space, and 2) how you project the player going forward.
For 1) using Debrusk as an example, that is about $3m worth of cap space (assuming Boeser signs for $8.5m x 8) per season, for 7 season. That is not an insignificant amount. What is that worth depends on the person, but with a team carrying so much in dead cap and some inefficient contracts, that is not a negligible difference to me. 2) I simply don't project Boeser to perform very well going forward, that is probably the core of our disagreement. I see Boeser as a good complimentary winger who has been tied to the hip of 2 very good centers over the years, and despite playing L1 and PP1 with 2 100pts centers and an elite defenseman, he has only 1 season where he scored over 40 goals (even including pace for the shortened years) and 70 pts. Added to that his skating and overall game leads me to believe that he wouldn't be worth his cap hit in ANY of the years on his new contract. The concussion doesn't help my evaluation of him. I think the team is better off going for other options (like fixing the D) than signing BB6 to a long term contract. Maybe a Guentzel-like player becomes available, maybe we trade for a Bjorkstrand-type player, or maybe we sign another player in the Debrusk-tier, or maybe we spend the money strengthening our D. To me, any one of those is a better outcome.

 

[F A N]

It depends how much you value 1) cap space, and 2) how you project the player going forward.
For 1) using Debrusk as an example, that is about $3m worth of cap space (assuming Boeser signs for $8.5m x 8) per season, for 7 season. That is not an insignificant amount. What is that worth depends on the person, but with a team carrying so much in dead cap and some inefficient contracts, that is not a negligible difference to me. 2) I simply don't project Boeser to perform very well going forward, that is probably the core of our disagreement. I see Boeser as a good complimentary winger who has been tied to the hip of 2 very good centers over the years, and despite playing L1 and PP1 with 2 100pts centers and an elite defenseman, he has only 1 season where he scored over 40 goals (even including pace for the shortened years) and 70 pts. Added to that his skating and overall game leads me to believe that he wouldn't be worth his cap hit in ANY of the years on his new contract. The concussion doesn't help my evaluation of him. I think the team is better off going for other options (like fixing the D) than signing BB6 to a long term contract. Maybe a Guentzel-like player becomes available, maybe we trade for a Bjorkstrand-type player, or maybe we sign another player in the Debrusk-tier, or maybe we spend the money strengthening our D. To me, any one of those is a better outcome.

Obviously, how you project the player going forward matters. If you don't think Boeser is worth $8M or whatever it is required to sign him even on a 1-2 year deal then the answer is simple. You trade him and don't re-sign him.

There is also a #3 in there. Like I said, even DeBrusk signings don't come around often and they often cost significant assets to acquire. Again, use DeBrusk as an example. His issues in Boston have been well documented. Yet the Bruins didn't end up trading him and ended up walking away with nothing. Of course there are exceptions. Bjorkstrand was a good trade and Seattle took advantage. But again, planning to acquire a 27 year old winger coming off a 28 goal 57 point season for a 3rd and 4th round pick in a rising cap environment shouldn't be a plan. At the end of the day, goal scorers like Boeser don't grow on trees. They are expensive to keep but losing him sets the team back unless the team trades him for assets.

 

[kcunac]

The big q is term. Will BB be willing to take 5 years instead of 8? That’s probably a tough ask.

 

[AzNightmare]

To win the cup, luck also plays a big factor.
At some point, the GM will have to make a gamble and sacrifice the future to win now, even if it means signing a contract that won't age well years later, hopefully after the team has won the cup already.

If the GM is just looking for diamonds in the rough, that's be very difficult and an even bigger gamble. Essentially having a crystal ball and paying cheap for players who will just so happen have break out years to replace voids for a cheaper cost.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Last season was the year.

Pettersson at 7.35M
Boeser at 6.65M
Hughes at 7.85M
Miller at 8M
Demko at 5M
Hronek at 4.4M
Lindholm at 5.325M
Zadorov at 3.75M
Joshua at 1.625M

We had a really great cap situation with players outperforming their contracts before they became UFA's.

And of course, almost all of the above players were having career years in addition to their favorable cap hits.

The concept of a "window" is very important in the salary cap era and had Demko and Boeser been healthy, and Pettersson been his normal self, we definitely beat the Oilers and could've seen ourselves in the SCF.

This is why a multi year window is so important.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Obviously, how you project the player going forward matters. If you don't think Boeser is worth $8M or whatever it is required to sign him even on a 1-2 year deal then the answer is simple. You trade him and don't re-sign him.

There is also a #3 in there. Like I said, even DeBrusk signings don't come around often and they often cost significant assets to acquire. Again, use DeBrusk as an example. His issues in Boston have been well documented. Yet the Bruins didn't end up trading him and ended up walking away with nothing. Of course there are exceptions. Bjorkstrand was a good trade and Seattle took advantage. But again, planning to acquire a 27 year old winger coming off a 28 goal 57 point season for a 3rd and 4th round pick in a rising cap environment shouldn't be a plan. At the end of the day, goal scorers like Boeser don't grow on trees. They are expensive to keep but losing him sets the team back unless the team trades him for assets.

Yea I'm also coming from the point where I don't want to saddle Petey and Hughes's prime (so essentially the next 5-8 years or so) with any inefficient contract. If you think Hughes will leave after his current contract, then extending Brock and go all-in the next 2 seasons is the right play. I hope Hughes will stay with us so we need to budget like $14m for his next contract, I want to make sure we have enough cap space there, and also to add as well. Having Brock at $8ish mil will not help in that regards.