Player Discussion The Official Brock Boeser Risk Management Thread

[LemonSauceD]

Even about a month ago I was still on the re sign Boeser hill but that’s quickly changed. We can’t afford to re sign Boeser to $7.5M+ he’s going to want considering the amount of holes we have on defense. If we get someone like Byram or any other RFA dman, we are gonna need money to re sign them after the season. There’s also Lankinen in which we should 100% prioritize signing and he’ll likely come at another 3-4M.

There’s no way we can afford to keep Boeser.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Even about a month ago I was still on the re sign Boeser hill but that’s quickly changed. We can’t afford to re sign Boeser to $7.5M+ he’s going to want considering the amount of holes we have on defense. If we get someone like Byram or any other RFA dman, we are gonna need money to re sign them after the season. There’s also Lankinen in which we should 100% prioritize signing and he’ll likely come at another 3-4M.

There’s no way we can afford to keep Boeser.

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

 

[Hodgy]

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

Ya, I think an argument could be made that this team doesn't have enough top end talent, and I think I agree. And if you are of that view, then, unless you can find a better scorer than Boeser, I think you probably need to sign him and upgrade the defense at the expense of winger depth up front.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

In much the same way I feel there’s no way we win a trade involving Petey, I simply don’t see how we replace what Boeser brings for the same or less money.

He’s a character guy good for 30ish goals and shines in the playoffs. We need to re-sign him. I get the thinking of “replace him internally”, but no one is close to being ready to step into his shoes.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I just know that any reasonable extension for BB6 will have me anxious about the eventual drop off. It would be tough having a slow skating non-play-driving winger on the decline locked in at $7-8m for (what is likely to be) very long term. Cup contenders usually don't have too many bad contracts, even one of those can be a big/costly problem. Like most UFA contracts, all we can hope is that we get at least 3-4 "good" seasons out of him. I would really hate to have buyers remorse immediately (kind of like the Eriksson/Stamkos/Lucic type deals).

I think a team can still be competitive with strong centers, defense and goaltending, winger is the lowest on my priority list. Even if we can't replace Boeser completely, I still rather let him walk than to commit something like $8m x 8, feels like the same bullet we dodged with Lindholm (who also only really had 1 offensively great season in his career, much like Brock).

 

[F A N]

I just know that any reasonable extension for BB6 will have me anxious about the eventual drop off. It would be tough having a slow skating non-play-driving winger on the decline locked in at $7-8m for (what is likely to be) very long term. Cup contenders usually don't have too many bad contracts, even one of those can be a big/costly problem. Like most UFA contracts, all we can hope is that we get at least 3-4 "good" seasons out of him. I would really hate to have buyers remorse immediately (kind of like the Eriksson/Stamkos/Lucic type deals).

I think a team can still be competitive with strong centers, defense and goaltending, winger is the lowest on my priority list. Even if we can't replace Boeser completely, I still rather let him walk than to commit something like $8m x 8, feels like the same bullet we dodged with Lindholm (who also only really had 1 offensively great season in his career, much like Brock).

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

Yes, Boeser averaged roughly 30 goals and 65 points over his career so far, but that is in his peak and as a fixture on the top line with all the prime offensive opportunities and PP1 time. As he move past his peak, his scoring should naturally decline.

It is interesting you use Kessel as an example, even his last season with Pittsburgh he was a point per game player. His stats didn't fall off until he was traded to Arizona. Is the sudden and steep drop off due to his age, or is it due to an older vet not motivated to play for a rebuilding team? Work ethic was an issue with Kessel but it could also be said about Brock for a while.

I think a vast majority of the players decline as they are in the late 20s, moving into their 30s. There are always exceptions like Pavelski, and the elites like Crosby/Malkin/Ovi/Selanne usually remain productive, but the norm is that signing an aging forward long term is not a good bet to make.

Yes if the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow. There are and will be options for scoring wingers though, there always are.

 

[F A N]

Yes, Boeser averaged roughly 30 goals and 65 points over his career so far, but that is in his peak and as a fixture on the top line with all the prime offensive opportunities and PP1 time. As he move past his peak, his scoring should naturally decline.

Well ya. I certainly expect some decline in later years and fear steep declines. Miller will be 36 at the end of his contract and I certainly don't expect him to be a 90+ point #1C type at age 36. It's part of the business. You can't keep a soon to be 28 year old player like Boeser without paying him into his mid-30s. We signed DeBrusk to a 7 year contract where he will be 34 in his last year.

It is interesting you use Kessel as an example, even his last season with Pittsburgh he was a point per game player. His stats didn't fall off until he was traded to Arizona. Is the sudden and steep drop off due to his age, or is it due to an older vet not motivated to play for a rebuilding team? Work ethic was an issue with Kessel but it could also be said about Brock for a while.

I don't think Kessel's work ethic was an issue. I also don't recall many of us questioning Brock's work ethic. Brock always worked hard IMO.

I think a vast majority of the players decline as they are in the late 20s, moving into their 30s. There are always exceptions like Pavelski, and the elites like Crosby/Malkin/Ovi/Selanne usually remain productive, but the norm is that signing an aging forward long term is not a good bet to make.

But you're not signing an aging forward. 28 years old isn't aging. And the "bet" here isn't that the player would still be productive at age 35 but that he would be remain productive through his expected prime years with more of a gradual age-related decline.

Yes if the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow. There are and will be options for scoring wingers though, there always are.

It seems like you're talking about contention being this far off thing in the future. We're not rebuilding. We're not looking to contend in 5 years. A 28 year old Boeser certainly fits this team's perceived/desired window of contention just like Debrusk.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Well ya. I certainly expect some decline in later years and fear steep declines. Miller will be 36 at the end of his contract and I certainly don't expect him to be a 90+ point #1C type at age 36. It's part of the business. You can't keep a soon to be 28 year old player like Boeser without paying him into his mid-30s. We signed DeBrusk to a 7 year contract where he will be 34 in his last year.


I don't think Kessel's work ethic was an issue. I also don't recall many of us questioning Brock's work ethic. Brock always worked hard IMO.


But you're not signing an aging forward. 28 years old isn't aging. And the "bet" here isn't that the player would still be productive at age 35 but that he would be remain productive through his expected prime years with more of a gradual age-related decline.



It seems like you're talking about contention being this far off thing in the future. We're not rebuilding. We're not looking to contend in 5 years. A 28 year old Boeser certainly fits this team's perceived/desired window of contention just like Debrusk.

Yea like I said before, I believe the team will extend him and pray he remains productive for 2-4 seasons, go all-in during Hughes's contract, and deal with the rest later on. And the extension is a logical move in that sense.

I just personally don't feel comfortable with it, and it wouldn't be how I build the team. However, I'm fairly sure management will keep BB6. I'm just going to be hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

 

[SillyRabbit]

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

Last season was the year.

Pettersson at 7.35M
Boeser at 6.65M
Hughes at 7.85M
Miller at 8M
Demko at 5M
Hronek at 4.4M
Lindholm at 5.325M
Zadorov at 3.75M
Joshua at 1.625M

We had a really great cap situation with players outperforming their contracts before they became UFA's.

And of course, almost all of the above players were having career years in addition to their favorable cap hits.

The concept of a "window" is very important in the salary cap era and had Demko and Boeser been healthy, and Pettersson been his normal self, we definitely beat the Oilers and could've seen ourselves in the SCF.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Last season was the year.

Pettersson at 7.35M
Boeser at 6.65M
Hughes at 7.85M
Miller at 8M
Demko at 5M
Hronek at 4.4M
Lindholm at 5.325M
Zadorov at 3.75M
Joshua at 1.625M

We had a really great cap situation with players outperforming their contracts before they became UFA's.

And of course, almost all of the above players were having career years in addition to their favorable cap hits.

The concept of a "window" is very important in the salary cap era and had Demko and Boeser been healthy, and Pettersson been his normal self, we definitely beat the Oilers and could've seen ourselves in the SCF.

 

[F A N]

Yea like I said before, I believe the team will extend him and pray he remains productive for 2-4 seasons, go all-in during Hughes's contract, and deal with the rest later on. And the extension is a logical move in that sense.

I just personally don't feel comfortable with it, and it wouldn't be how I build the team. However, I'm fairly sure management will keep BB6. I'm just going to be hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

I get that you don't feel comfortable re-signing Boeser for 8 years. But you keep saying "If the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow." Like if you were in charge when would you have the Canucks contend? Like next summer, if you're talking about UFA forwards, the top forwards under 30 aside from Boeser are Rantanen, Marner, and Ehlers. Even if he is available, you're not getting Rantanen for less than Petey money. Marner is going to demand similar money. Ehlers will be comparatively affordable but Ehlers has 4 goals, 14 points in 37 playoff games. Boeser had 7 goals
12 points in 12 games last playoffs. Add in the other intangibles and why wouldn't we keep Boeser?

Then there's the fact that we have to make decisions on other players as well. Garland, Suter, and Sherwood only have one year left on their deals. You want to bet on Lekkerimaki replacing Boeser and go from there?

Name the last Stanley Cup winner that didn't have a winger who typically scores at a 30+ goal pace? Arguably Vegas but Marchessault scored 30 the previous year, 28 during the Cup year (in 76 games), and scored 42 the next year. They also have Mark Stone, who while never scoring 30 goals, was widely considered to be one of the elite wingers in the league. Maybe Penguins' Cups? They did have Kessel and Malkin spent time on the wing. Maybe the Kings First Cup? They won their second Cup with Gaborik who was healthy for the playoffs. The point is you need guys talented enough to play with your star Cs just as you need a good partner for your Norris trophy winner Dman.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I get that you don't feel comfortable re-signing Boeser for 8 years. But you keep saying "If the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow." Like if you were in charge when would you have the Canucks contend? Like next summer, if you're talking about UFA forwards, the top forwards under 30 aside from Boeser are Rantanen, Marner, and Ehlers. Even if he is available, you're not getting Rantanen for less than Petey money. Marner is going to demand similar money. Ehlers will be comparatively affordable but Ehlers has 4 goals, 14 points in 37 playoff games. Boeser had 7 goals
12 points in 12 games last playoffs. Add in the other intangibles and why wouldn't we keep Boeser?

Then there's the fact that we have to make decisions on other players as well. Garland, Suter, and Sherwood only have one year left on their deals. You want to bet on Lekkerimaki replacing Boeser and go from there?

Name the last Stanley Cup winner that didn't have a winger who typically scores at a 30+ goal pace? Arguably Vegas but Marchessault scored 30 the previous year, 28 during the Cup year (in 76 games), and scored 42 the next year. They also have Mark Stone, who while never scoring 30 goals, was widely considered to be one of the elite wingers in the league. Maybe Penguins' Cups? They did have Kessel and Malkin spent time on the wing. Maybe the Kings First Cup? They won their second Cup with Gaborik who was healthy for the playoffs. The point is you need guys talented enough to play with your star Cs just as you need a good partner for your Norris trophy winner Dman.

There isn't much in the UFA pool that is an improvement on Boeser AND someone we can afford. I probably look into the trade options. There have been decent wingers that were acquired via trade in the past, that have gone for relatively cheap, but the best part is their contract usually has less term and/or lower cap hit. There are bound to be sellers near the TDL and/or after the season, we can potentially snatch one or two there.

I can't give you an example on who's available or not, as I'm obviously not working for any NHL team, but I rather pay the assets for a complementary winger, rather than paying long term to one that should be on the decline soon.

**Although I mentioned above that the trade option is one I prefer, some UFAs could also work well. Debrusk was signed for free at a lower cap hit than Boeser, and honestly he isn't that much worse than Brock. He is making roughly 80% of Boeser's CURRENT cap hit and is providing roughly 80% of the offense, so it's not like we absolutely have to extend Boeser to 8 years in order to get some scoring.