Player Discussion The Official Brock Boeser Risk Management Thread

[LemonSauceD]

Even about a month ago I was still on the re sign Boeser hill but that’s quickly changed. We can’t afford to re sign Boeser to $7.5M+ he’s going to want considering the amount of holes we have on defense. If we get someone like Byram or any other RFA dman, we are gonna need money to re sign them after the season. There’s also Lankinen in which we should 100% prioritize signing and he’ll likely come at another 3-4M.

There’s no way we can afford to keep Boeser.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Even about a month ago I was still on the re sign Boeser hill but that’s quickly changed. We can’t afford to re sign Boeser to $7.5M+ he’s going to want considering the amount of holes we have on defense. If we get someone like Byram or any other RFA dman, we are gonna need money to re sign them after the season. There’s also Lankinen in which we should 100% prioritize signing and he’ll likely come at another 3-4M.

There’s no way we can afford to keep Boeser.

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

 

[Hodgy]

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

Ya, I think an argument could be made that this team doesn't have enough top end talent, and I think I agree. And if you are of that view, then, unless you can find a better scorer than Boeser, I think you probably need to sign him and upgrade the defense at the expense of winger depth up front.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

If he takes anything in the $7m range AAV, re-sign him immediately.

They can't afford to lose him.

In much the same way I feel there’s no way we win a trade involving Petey, I simply don’t see how we replace what Boeser brings for the same or less money.

He’s a character guy good for 30ish goals and shines in the playoffs. We need to re-sign him. I get the thinking of “replace him internally”, but no one is close to being ready to step into his shoes.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

I just know that any reasonable extension for BB6 will have me anxious about the eventual drop off. It would be tough having a slow skating non-play-driving winger on the decline locked in at $7-8m for (what is likely to be) very long term. Cup contenders usually don't have too many bad contracts, even one of those can be a big/costly problem. Like most UFA contracts, all we can hope is that we get at least 3-4 "good" seasons out of him. I would really hate to have buyers remorse immediately (kind of like the Eriksson/Stamkos/Lucic type deals).

I think a team can still be competitive with strong centers, defense and goaltending, winger is the lowest on my priority list. Even if we can't replace Boeser completely, I still rather let him walk than to commit something like $8m x 8, feels like the same bullet we dodged with Lindholm (who also only really had 1 offensively great season in his career, much like Brock).

 

[F A N]

I just know that any reasonable extension for BB6 will have me anxious about the eventual drop off. It would be tough having a slow skating non-play-driving winger on the decline locked in at $7-8m for (what is likely to be) very long term. Cup contenders usually don't have too many bad contracts, even one of those can be a big/costly problem. Like most UFA contracts, all we can hope is that we get at least 3-4 "good" seasons out of him. I would really hate to have buyers remorse immediately (kind of like the Eriksson/Stamkos/Lucic type deals).

I think a team can still be competitive with strong centers, defense and goaltending, winger is the lowest on my priority list. Even if we can't replace Boeser completely, I still rather let him walk than to commit something like $8m x 8, feels like the same bullet we dodged with Lindholm (who also only really had 1 offensively great season in his career, much like Brock).

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

If you average out his career totals over 82 games, Boeser has averaged about 30 goals and 65 games. He slowed down after suffering a concussion but this year he is scoring at a 33 goal 67 point pace.

I have no idea how to accurately predict how a player would age. Like sure I can look at an average skater, player who took a lot of physical abuse, and or injury history and predict that he wouldn't age well but Kessel was an elite skater/goal scorer, an ironman, who rarely got hit and he didn't exactly age well. Work ethic can also go away. You can say that Lindholm had 1 offensively great season but he was good for a long while. The issue is that he was coming off a bad season so you don't know where his game was heading at age 30.

The truth is that a lot of Cup winners were in good situations. It's like if we won a Cup two years ago or last year where our core players were young and signed to good contracts.

If you don't want to sign guys like Boeser you need to make some homerun trades and signings to contend.

Yes, Boeser averaged roughly 30 goals and 65 points over his career so far, but that is in his peak and as a fixture on the top line with all the prime offensive opportunities and PP1 time. As he move past his peak, his scoring should naturally decline.

It is interesting you use Kessel as an example, even his last season with Pittsburgh he was a point per game player. His stats didn't fall off until he was traded to Arizona. Is the sudden and steep drop off due to his age, or is it due to an older vet not motivated to play for a rebuilding team? Work ethic was an issue with Kessel but it could also be said about Brock for a while.

I think a vast majority of the players decline as they are in the late 20s, moving into their 30s. There are always exceptions like Pavelski, and the elites like Crosby/Malkin/Ovi/Selanne usually remain productive, but the norm is that signing an aging forward long term is not a good bet to make.

Yes if the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow. There are and will be options for scoring wingers though, there always are.

 

[F A N]

Yes, Boeser averaged roughly 30 goals and 65 points over his career so far, but that is in his peak and as a fixture on the top line with all the prime offensive opportunities and PP1 time. As he move past his peak, his scoring should naturally decline.

Well ya. I certainly expect some decline in later years and fear steep declines. Miller will be 36 at the end of his contract and I certainly don't expect him to be a 90+ point #1C type at age 36. It's part of the business. You can't keep a soon to be 28 year old player like Boeser without paying him into his mid-30s. We signed DeBrusk to a 7 year contract where he will be 34 in his last year.

It is interesting you use Kessel as an example, even his last season with Pittsburgh he was a point per game player. His stats didn't fall off until he was traded to Arizona. Is the sudden and steep drop off due to his age, or is it due to an older vet not motivated to play for a rebuilding team? Work ethic was an issue with Kessel but it could also be said about Brock for a while.

I don't think Kessel's work ethic was an issue. I also don't recall many of us questioning Brock's work ethic. Brock always worked hard IMO.

I think a vast majority of the players decline as they are in the late 20s, moving into their 30s. There are always exceptions like Pavelski, and the elites like Crosby/Malkin/Ovi/Selanne usually remain productive, but the norm is that signing an aging forward long term is not a good bet to make.

But you're not signing an aging forward. 28 years old isn't aging. And the "bet" here isn't that the player would still be productive at age 35 but that he would be remain productive through his expected prime years with more of a gradual age-related decline.

Yes if the team is looking to contend, they will have to replace BB6 somehow. There are and will be options for scoring wingers though, there always are.

It seems like you're talking about contention being this far off thing in the future. We're not rebuilding. We're not looking to contend in 5 years. A 28 year old Boeser certainly fits this team's perceived/desired window of contention just like Debrusk.