HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[morhilane]

Buffalo is stealing our spot. Incredible.

Similar young defense, a younger forward group and way worst goaltending. Nothing surprising about Buffalo being worst than the Habs.

 

[ReHabs]

Similar young defense, a younger forward group and way worst goaltending. Nothing surprising about Buffalo being worst than the Habs.

On paper they have a better defense and forwards corps, both.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Similar young defense, a younger forward group and way worst goaltending. Nothing surprising about Buffalo being worst than the Habs.

They've been rebuilding for 13 years, man. They have the return from Eichel, Thompson developed into a surprise star, they have two 1st overall defenseman who have multiple years in the league, multiple other top 10 picks..

They should absolutely be better than the Habs. There's no excuse for them to not have turned things around.. but that's the cautionary tale, everyone cries we don't tank hard enough like Buffalo did and slit their wrists over Zach Benson, yet where are they?

Below a team that started a rebuild, officially, 2 years ago.. and they still can't materially distance themselves.

 

[Tuggy]

They rely on too many youngs players imo. At that time, they should target a guy like Thomas Hertl, elias lindholm and giving assets. No matter the cost.

Their GM definitely lacks balls to make a big move. They have very good young pieces in place. They have plenty of trade pieces (draft picks/prospects) and plenty of cap space.

I was baffled last season when they didn't make a move to push for a playoff spot.

 

[Lshap]

Similar young defense, a younger forward group and way worst goaltending. Nothing surprising about Buffalo being worst than the Habs.

Buffalo was the hot new team-de-jour. A lot of people had them in the playoffs. The surprise is that a roster with so much individual talent is doing so poorly as a group. Part of the problem was predictable – everyone knew it was a gamble to throw 21 year old Devon Levi into the full-time goalie position; turns out he's still very raw. I was rooting for him – he grew up in my neighbourhood and is a genuinely great kid who comes from a great family. But goaltending is part of a deeper, more systemic problem with that franchise.

I'm guessing here – aside from poor goaltending, Buffalo looks like it's missing leadership and a winning culture. They expected it to bloom during the Eichel era, but it turns out hockey talent and leadership are two different qualities. Now they're in the... um... Okposo era...? So who's the role model for these kids?

Again, I obviously don't know what the mood is in the dressing room, but the Sabres are a cautionary tale that building a winning team is more than adding pieces. They've drafted and traded well, yet somehow those positive moves still aren't translating onto the ice.

 

[NORiculous]

It's early in the sense of we don't know what we have with those lottery picks, one of which hasn't even been chosen yet. But in the sense that we probably aren't getting many top picks after this year then yes you can say we are already in the middle/transition part of our rebuild.

Yes.

That is why the picks they made (and the way management is developing them) are being scrutinized and criticized.

The team is going to get better but if they don’t manage those top picks well, the Suzuki era can turn into a Koivu era 2.0.

Going for players with lower ceilings right now is a mistake because you will get players with lower ceilings when you rise in the standings.

I think they were unanimously scared of busting two top picks in a row, so went with a « safer » pick. How else can a team be unanimous about a controversial pick that is far from being unanimous across the league.

Having a team of people that all see the game in similar fashion is a recipe for failure. They can all be smart and talented, but the team will still lack peripheral vision.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I like it

 

[NORiculous]

They've been rebuilding for 13 years, man. They have the return from Eichel, Thompson developed into a surprise star, they have two 1st overall defenseman who have multiple years in the league, multiple other top 10 picks..

They should absolutely be better than the Habs. There's no excuse for them to not have turned things around.. but that's the cautionary tale, everyone cries we don't tank hard enough like Buffalo did and slit their wrists over Zach Benson, yet where are they?

Below a team that started a rebuild, officially, 2 years ago.. and they still can't materially distance themselves.

I remember the Nords being in a similar situation until Lacroix traded Sundin for Clark who then turned into Claude Lemieux.

Arguably a « bad » trade but that helped the remaining kids get organized.

So you need talent but once you have it, you need a couple of good vets.

Starting with a couple of good vets before getting the top talent is a possible approche but it might prevent the team of having access to the needed top talent.

I’m sure It can be doable but I don’t think it’s a no risk path either…

 

[sandviper]

They've been rebuilding for 13 years, man. They have the return from Eichel, Thompson developed into a surprise star, they have two 1st overall defenseman who have multiple years in the league, multiple other top 10 picks..

They should absolutely be better than the Habs. There's no excuse for them to not have turned things around.. but that's the cautionary tale, everyone cries we don't tank hard enough like Buffalo did and slit their wrists over Zach Benson, yet where are they?

Below a team that started a rebuild, officially, 2 years ago.. and they still can't materially distance themselves.

I’m not sure if this is the correct term, but at various points of a rebuild, there’s trigger points. It’s that moment when you are at a point where a decision has to be made to take that next step. It could be selling an asset at the right time to get a rebuilding piece that moves you forward. Or, in Buffalo’s case, buying the right piece to get to the next level. They had this opportunity last season when they were on the cusp of the playoffs.

Edmonton I see in a similar situation historically. For whatever reason, they’re just afraid to trade draft picks when the time to win is now. I get they aren’t rebuilding in a traditional sense, but they sort of are when you think of them trying to be contenders.

Tampa has always been really good with this; buying at the right time and not worrying about FOMO.

Buffalo should definitely be better. I know tank critics point at them and mock their loser culture but I don’t think it’s that at all. They aren’t “losers” in that way. They’re losers because they don’t make the right decisions at the right times.

That’s more the trap I hope HuGo and future management avoids.

 

[salbutera]

Buffalo is laughable, no matter how many top 10 picks they lay turds year after year. Maybe that's a little lesson for us here on team tank.

Many mock at the “culture” word thrown around by MB and now HuGo, but once “losing culture” takes root…. takes a very long time to rid ones org of that mindset

They rely on too many youngs players imo. At that time, they should target a guy like Thomas Hertl, elias lindholm and giving assets. No matter the cost.

A large part of the reasoning has to do with established players wanting nothing to do with that market even hometown types like Kane..

 

[Hannibal]

At least the Wild ans Sens are winning more.

 

[salbutera]

I’m not sure if this is the correct term, but at various points of a rebuild, there’s trigger points. It’s that moment when you are at a point where a decision has to be made to take that next step. It could be selling an asset at the right time to get a rebuilding piece that moves you forward. Or, in Buffalo’s case, buying the right piece to get to the next level. They had this opportunity last season when they were on the cusp of the playoffs.

Edmonton I see in a similar situation historically. For whatever reason, they’re just afraid to trade draft picks when the time to win is now. I get they aren’t rebuilding in a traditional sense, but they sort of are when you think of them trying to be contenders.

Tampa has always been really good with this; buying at the right time and not worrying about FOMO.

Buffalo should definitely be better. I know tank critics point at them and mock their loser culture but I don’t think it’s that at all. They aren’t “losers” in that way. They’re losers because they don’t make the right decisions at the right times.

That’s more the trap I hope HuGo and future management avoids.

Because the type of established players needed won’t go to Edm or Buf. As Gord Miller repeatedly says “its well known players simply don’t want to play in Cdn markets” for a variety of reasons..

Now we’re staring to see players like Stamkos being public & more open about why they hold such a position..

 

[morhilane]

Buffalo was the hot new team-de-jour. A lot of people had them in the playoffs. The surprise is that a roster with so much individual talent is doing so poorly as a group. Part of the problem was predictable – everyone knew it was a gamble to throw 21 year old Devon Levi into the full-time goalie position; turns out he's still very raw. I was rooting for him – he grew up in my neighbourhood and is a genuinely great kid who comes from a great family. But goaltending is part of a deeper, more systemic problem with that franchise.

I'm guessing here – aside from poor goaltending, Buffalo looks like it's missing leadership and a winning culture. They expected it to bloom during the Eichel era, but it turns out hockey talent and leadership are two different qualities. Now they're in the... um... Okposo era...? So who's the role model for these kids?

Again, I obviously don't know what the mood is in the dressing room, but the Sabres are a cautionary tale that building a winning team is more than adding pieces. They've drafted and traded well, yet somehow those positive moves still aren't translating onto the ice.

Thinking a kid fresh out of the NCAA would be NHL starter material right away was wishful thinking from the Sabres management. The rest is a lack of maturity among the younger players they have and leadership has been suspect for years.

They have a lots of UFAs this year, mostly aging vets including their current captain. Things might looks different next season, could even be worst depending what happens in the off-season. They can't replace all those UFA vets by rookies...

 

[Lshap]

Yes.

That is why the picks they made (and the way management is developing them) are being scrutinized and criticized.

The team is going to get better but if they don’t manage those top picks well, the Suzuki era can turn into a Koivu era 2.0.

Going for players with lower ceilings right now is a mistake because you will get players with lower ceilings when you rise in the standings.

I think they were unanimously scared of busting two top picks in a row, so went with a « safer » pick. How else can a team be unanimous about a controversial pick that is far from being unanimous across the league.

Having a team of people that all see the game in similar fashion is a recipe for failure. They can all be smart and talented, but the team will still lack peripheral vision.

Seems everyone in this thread sees the same thing... only from different angles. We all agree we have very good young players and promising prospects, but we disagree on how high this existing core of kids can take us. We all agree teenagers need time to develop, but we disagree on when they should be expected to meet measurable markers of progress. We all agree we have no idea how it'll turn out, but we can't help projecting our feelings on how it'll turn out.

Optimistically, the Habs have one of the league's best groups of future defencemen and a solid if unspectacular future offence. We just need a little drafting luck in 2024 and another smart trade to turn this future good team into a legit contender.

Pessimistically, our rebuild has topped out as a few doubles and singles, but no homeruns. We probably have another top-10 pick coming up, but if we still lack a superstar after drafting 5OA and 1OA, chances are slim we'll find one at this point.

Realistically, we know we have to wait and see. But "Wait and see" is a conversation-killer, so here we are...

 

[DAChampion]

There's a part of me that thinks the rebuild will last forever as the Habs might always be an elite injury team.

I feel like it's been a problem for as long as I've been following the team in some detail. .

Carolina won a Cup in part due to Justin Williams pointing his stick into Koivu's eye.

In (2006?) Kovalev was not great, I think he had vertigo or something.

The 2008 team saw Streit injured and thus was less effective in the playoffs.

The 2009 team lost Lang, Tanguay, Komisarek, Koivu for parts.

In the past fifteen years the team tanked whenever Price and/or Markov were out.

But in 2011 they were still good, took the eventual Cup Champions (Boston) to 7 game OT, without Pacioretty who was taken out by Chara.

A dominant Habs team makes the playoffs in 2013 but Gryba takes out Eller.

In 2014, team made the conference finals, Vanek was playing injured and Price was taken out by Kreider.

In 2015/16 Galchenyuk was finally emerging, I think at one point he was 7th in points in the NHL or something, then he got yet another leg injury.

Last year and this year...

 

[Adam Michaels]

Buffalo is laughable, no matter how many top 10 picks they lay turds year after year. Maybe that's a little lesson for us here on team tank.

If you look at the teams that did a rebuild successfully by drafting high in consecutive years, their eventual playoff success was possible because they surrounded those high end youngsters with vets. Even if the young guys carried most of the mail, the vets they had around them only solidified their rebuild.

You can't have a team that gets rid of every 28-29 year old or over just to make your team all 25 or younger. Because then you'll be in the vicious cycle of always tanking to pick high.

 

[Sorinth]

Agreed. If they swing and miss on the 1OA and 5OA, both of whom were controversial picks, they should be fired and competent management should be put in place.

Disagree that management should be fired based on two picks. If Reinbacher busts but Hutson becomes a ppg 1st pairing guy then we should be relatively happy with our drafting. In the end mistakes will happen, in and of themselves they aren't fireable offensives. What matters is the process, and whether they learn from any mistakes.

It seems a lot has to go right for this team to come together but... coming into this season I had hope. I felt like so many youngsters had gone through their trial-by-fire and would step up this year. Unfortunately players like Harris, Xhekaj, Dach, and Caufield haven't demonstrated much improvement (yes, the injury to Dach is devastating). Guhle's PPG hasn't changed much, Suzuki's either. Slafkovsky looks like he's adapted to the speed of the NHL but there's a lot more runway before he can take off.

Since we aren't drafting top3, if too few young players improve, this season will be a net negative and have dark implications for the future.

Every rebuilding team needs a lot to go right. That part is normal, as for your assesment of players I think your completly wrong that there hasn't been much improvement. For example Caufield has improved his play without the puck dramatically, that's just as important for him to do as increasing his ppg (Which he has also done slightly). Same sort of thing with Guhle, there's been some great development in his game even if his ppg hasn't gone up. And it all seems perfectly normal to me, development isn't linear, it's perfectly normal that a player can make big strides but you only see the production some time down the road. If you can't see the improvement then I'm not sure what can be said beyond I think your wrong and time will tell.

 

[Sorinth]

Yes.

That is why the picks they made (and the way management is developing them) are being scrutinized and criticized.

The team is going to get better but if they don’t manage those top picks well, the Suzuki era can turn into a Koivu era 2.0.

Going for players with lower ceilings right now is a mistake because you will get players with lower ceilings when you rise in the standings.

I think they were unanimously scared of busting two top picks in a row, so went with a « safer » pick. How else can a team be unanimous about a controversial pick that is far from being unanimous across the league.

Having a team of people that all see the game in similar fashion is a recipe for failure. They can all be smart and talented, but the team will still lack peripheral vision.

So it's too early to tell whether our picks are going to be stars or not but yet you feel comfortable enough to criticize them for those picks? You realize how dumb that is right, especially when one of those picks is still months away from even being selected.

Every tank faces the same problem, you get a few high picks and they comes in and quickly makes the team better but overall the team still sucks but other teams are now as bad or worse then you so you stop getting the very top picks and have to make do with picks that have dropped off significantly in value. And that's a situation that's hard to get out of. It's why every success story involving tank required a huge amount of luck because those teams didn't just draft their superstars with tank picks they all drafted at least 1 superstar outside of their tank picks. And since we can't replicate that kind of draft luck it's not really something we should try to model.

As for the team going for lower ceiling players I completely disagree with your assessment. Slaf was the highest ceiling player in his draft class, and of all the contenders for going 1st OA he was probably close to the riskiest not the safest. For Reinbacher he also wasn't the "safe" pick, your making an assumption that because he is projected to be good defensively that must mean he doesn't have high offensive upside which simply isn't the case. I think one of the pre-draft scouting reports said it best "If you do hear his name picked top-10 in June don't think it's because the team that selects him is playing it safe, it's quite the opposite. The team that drafts Reinbacher top-10 will be one that isn't afraid to dream big, to bet on upside, and to work with their development team"

 

[montreal]

Buffalo is laughable, no matter how many top 10 picks they lay turds year after year. Maybe that's a little lesson for us here on team tank.

tanking is the easy part, it's what you do after that that matters. First you have to draft right and then you need to develop right and then you need to build a contender. These are very difficult things to get all of them correct, which is why it's so hit or miss. If it was easy every team that isn't a contender would just tank. Most teams there's a good reason why they are in the position that they need to tank, because the people in charge made too many mistakes and that can be tough to fix as you must find the right replacements and not say fire a MT and just turn right around and replace him with the same mold in Julien.

 

[The Real Timo]

So, selon RDS, Montanbo is getting second straight start.

 

[Miller Time]

There's a part of me that thinks the rebuild will last forever as the Habs might always be an elite injury team.

I feel like it's been a problem for as long as I've been following the team in some detail. .

Carolina won a Cup in part due to Justin Williams pointing his stick into Koivu's eye.

In (2006?) Kovalev was not great, I think he had vertigo or something.

The 2008 team saw Streit injured and thus was less effective in the playoffs.

The 2009 team lost Lang, Tanguay, Komisarek, Koivu for parts.

In the past fifteen years the team tanked whenever Price and/or Markov were out.

But in 2011 they were still good, took the eventual Cup Champions (Boston) to 7 game OT, without Pacioretty who was taken out by Chara.

A dominant Habs team makes the playoffs in 2013 but Gryba takes out Eller.

In 2014, team made the conference finals, Vanek was playing injured and Price was taken out by Kreider.

In 2015/16 Galchenyuk was finally emerging, I think at one point he was 7th in points in the NHL or something, then he got yet another leg injury.

Last year and this year...

I think the common thread is that in the past 2 decades, we've never assembled/built a cup contending roster (mix of elite talent & depth).

We've only had 2 truly elite players in that time (Price, PK) with 3 borderline candidates in Markov/Kovy/Patches... But neither Gainey nor MB was willing to go all in to really commit to surrounding those players with the kind of depth that cup winners inevitably have to rely on to survive season & playoffs.

Our deeper playoff runs were always from an underdog place even before injuries were a factor.

I think this management group understands that much better and is building the kind of foundation & culture that will eventually situate us in a contender position... With both elite talent and high quality depth of the nature that can withstand 2-3 big injuries and still compete.

Just takes time to get there... Especially with the mess of bad contracts and talent gaps the decade of Bargainbin's mismanagement left us with.


The pieces are coming together. Next 18months I think we'll see a clear corner turned
Future is bright

 

[McGees]

So, selon RDS, Montanbo is getting second straight start.

If Monty starts getting all the starts...we should start looking at who to draft in the teens...

 

[The Real Timo]

If Monty starts getting all the starts...we should start looking at who to draft in the teens...

We are looking at da playoffs!!!!

 

[salbutera]

We are looking at da playoffs!!!!

Well Habs are 2-pts out of a playoff spot ..

 

[NORiculous]

So it's too early to tell whether our picks are going to be stars or not but yet you feel comfortable enough to criticize them for those picks? You realize how dumb that is right, especially when one of those picks is still months away from even being selected.

Every tank faces the same problem, you get a few high picks and they comes in and quickly makes the team better but overall the team still sucks but other teams are now as bad or worse then you so you stop getting the very top picks and have to make do with picks that have dropped off significantly in value. And that's a situation that's hard to get out of. It's why every success story involving tank required a huge amount of luck because those teams didn't just draft their superstars with tank picks they all drafted at least 1 superstar outside of their tank picks. And since we can't replicate that kind of draft luck it's not really something we should try to model.

As for the team going for lower ceiling players I completely disagree with your assessment. Slaf was the highest ceiling player in his draft class, and of all the contenders for going 1st OA he was probably close to the riskiest not the safest. For Reinbacher he also wasn't the "safe" pick, your making an assumption that because he is projected to be good defensively that must mean he doesn't have high offensive upside which simply isn't the case. I think one of the pre-draft scouting reports said it best "If you do hear his name picked top-10 in June don't think it's because the team that selects him is playing it safe, it's quite the opposite. The team that drafts Reinbacher top-10 will be one that isn't afraid to dream big, to bet on upside, and to work with their development team"

There are too many things wrong with what you wrote and I don’t have 2 hours to go trough everything.

I’ll say this: Even Hughes said Reinbacher doesn’t have #1 D upside, yet YOU bet on upside with him.

Cheers,