HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[Sorinth]

Based on the first 20 games advanced stats (and average league goaltending stats) for the rest of the season, some analyst model "predict" that the Habs should apparently finish 4th last with 70 points.

Last year they finished 5th with 68 points.

So I think my prediction of them falling in the 6-10 ranks is on its way to happen. Currently 9th in point percentage.

If you take the combined record of this year + last year and project that record over the remaining season then you get a this as a projected point totals:
San Jose 54
Chicago 56
Columbus 61
Anaheim 63
Montreal 72
Arizona 75
Philadelphia 81
Ottawa 83

Overall not too bad, Edmonton ends up with 90 pts, and NJ with 101. But more important for the tank Calgary and Minnesota are at 87 but probably will finish lower, meanwhile Anaheim is probably a little low in the projection, they are likely in the 70 point range with us.

 

[Milhouse40]

Yes my problem is acting like the rebuild started with the third overall KK pick under bergevin , i see this theory on this board way too often , its nonsense

Is it nonsense?

A giant big part of a rebuild is selling top NHL players for future top player, right?
That summer we did get a 3rd overall pick (KK) and we traded Pacioretty for Suzuki.

That fact is Bergevin, as his usual self, tried to do everything at the same time from that point.
Trying to rebuild while still being somewhat competitive because of Price and Weber.

So in the next 2 years after that summer we got KK and Suzuki
We also got Caufield and Guhle with no man's land pick.

So I don't think it's far fetched to say the rebuild started that summer....it was just badly executed for 3 years and that fluke covid year kind of screw one year on top of it.

 

[NORiculous]

But in order to be at the bottom for multiple years, which outside of luck is needed to ensure you get the right pick in the right year you have to first be devoid of talent. A scorched earth rebuild isn't take one step back so that you can take two steps forward with the rebuild, it's take 2 steps back and one step forward.

And it's worth noting all the teams used as examples of successful tanks didn't devoid themselves of talent when they tanked. Chicago was trading picks and prospects for guys like Havlat and signing big name UFAs like Khabibulin at the same time they were drafting Toews and Kane. Tampa kept Lecavalier and St-Louis in the fold while getting Stamoks & Hedman. So when pro-tankers say we need to follow the example of those tank teams it's actually a joke because those teams did the exact opposite of what the pro-tankers say we should do.

If you mean that some want to trade Caufield and or Suzuki, then obviously you don’t trade those.

But the Habs could have traded Belzile and co and who just happened to play the best hockey of their lives at the exact moment the Habs needed 4 extra loses in a season.

So IMO it doesn’t need to be two step back one step forward.

Let me put it into perspective for you. Do you think that losing Belzile for free last year would have been two steps back?

I don’t think so and it could have propelled the Habs a huge step forward. That the type of thing you have to pay attention too.

If a team doesn’t get the top end talent, it runs the risk of turning the Suzuki era into a Koivu 2.0 era (for exemple).

The Koivu team had very decent talent, they worked hard, solid D, etc. But the top end talent wasn’t there and that group failed to win.

 

[Sorinth]

If you mean that some want to trade Caufield and or Suzuki, then obviously you don’t trade those.

But the Habs could have traded Belzile and co and who just happened to play the best hockey of their lives at the exact moment the Habs needed 4 extra loses in a season.

So IMO it doesn’t need to be two step back one step forward.

Let me put it into perspective for you. Do you think that losing Belzile for free last year would have been two steps back?

I don’t think so and it could have propelled the Habs a huge step forward. That the type of thing you have to pay attention too.

If a team doesn’t get the top end talent, it runs the risk of turning the Suzuki era into a Koivu 2.0 era (for exemple).

The Koivu team had very decent talent, they worked hard, solid D, etc. But the top end talent wasn’t there and that group failed to win.

I think your disconnected from reality if you think Belzile was the difference between us winning and losing games.

 

[NORiculous]

I think your disconnected from reality if you think Belzile was the difference between us winning and losing games.

I said Belzile and co.

That means Belzile and company.

But yes, a few guys played WAY over their head and that made the difference.

 

[Gravity]

Infuriating how we're not bottom 2 with 3 regulation wins.

 

[Sorinth]

I said Belzile and co.

That means Belzile and company.

But yes, a few guys played WAY over their head and that made the difference.

Unless an co means guys like Suzuki and Matheson then it means nothing. This narrative that our AHL callups, waiver wire pickups made any difference is pure fantasy. It's just a way for you to play make believe GM.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Infuriating how we're not bottom 2 with 3 regulation wins.

Season is still early.

We’re going to trade away a goalie and I fully expect us to fall off a cliff again soon.

 

[Sorinth]

Infuriating how we're not bottom 2 with 3 regulation wins.

If we didn't have 0 ENG we'd have a lot more regulation wins. The idea that we are lucky getting points via OT/Shootout falls flat against how unlucky we have been when the opposing team pulls their goalie.

 

[Gravity]

If we didn't have 0 ENG we'd have a lot more regulation wins. The idea that we are lucky getting points via OT/Shootout falls flat against how unlucky we have been when the opposing team pulls their goalie.

Man I'd love some of that kool-aid. This is a terrible team that simply has not been able to win in regulation because they don't have the horses up front. Looking at it as some kind of statistical anomaly is outlandish.

 

[montreal]

Needless to say tomorrow's game is a big one for the tank crowd as a top 2 pick pre lottery is not looking in the cards and the Jackets are in the 3 spot so it would help the tank if they lose that one. in another 4-5 weeks it should start to look a bit clearer as I really hope the Wild will turn things around to some degree, the Pens/NJ get going, the Oilers have won 6 of their last 10 so I hope this is when they move past us.

The Sens, Seattle, Flames are teams that I could see it being close plus you still have the Yotes, Flyers, NYI, Caps, Blues, Nashville, as teams I would assume will be in the mix as well since there are so many bad teams now.

If you go by goal Dif, the only really bad team is SJ at -54. The next worst,

Hawks -20
Wild -18
Seattle/Ducks -17
Habs -16
Jackets -12
Flames/NYI -11
Sabers/Oilers -7

 

[ReHabs]

Anybody else get the feeling this roster is a bit stuck?

Older scrubs are immovable
Young players underperforming but not worth trading away
Other young players mostly worthless on the trade market (ie replacement level)
Only one forward we can call up who might be relevant to our future

It can’t be that Kirby Dach was the only bright up and comer on this roster.

It feels like we haven’t seen sufficient growth from our young players year-on-year. I haven’t looked at adv stats but it’s worth looking into. Suzuki hasn’t hit a higher gear and it doesn’t feel like Caufield has any surprises left — he’s our best forward and can be trusted to hit 70ish, but that’s not good enough for a team’s best forward. Guhle is progressing well but it’s hard to bet on him to become a contending team’s top pairing D at this time.

Has Kent Hughes’ patience painted him into a corner? Should he have sold more and tanked harder? I’m not a tankophile but I don’t see a way out of this hole, not with the skill and quality gap we have with our divisional rivals.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Is it nonsense?

A giant big part of a rebuild is selling top NHL players for future top player, right?
That summer we did get a 3rd overall pick (KK) and we traded Pacioretty for Suzuki.

That fact is Bergevin, as his usual self, tried to do everything at the same time from that point.
Trying to rebuild while still being somewhat competitive because of Price and Weber.

So in the next 2 years after that summer we got KK and Suzuki
We also got Caufield and Guhle with no man's land pick.

So I don't think it's far fetched to say the rebuild started that summer....it was just badly executed for 3 years and that fluke covid year kind of screw one year on top of it.

Bergevin and Molson should’ve committed to a rebuild after that 2018 season. That off-season resembled something of a rebuild but he didn’t touch the core so they were able to limp around in no man’s land another 3 seasons before finally crashing. The moves Bergevin made in that time frame were small retool moves to keep the team but he never truly committed to a direction. Hense why we had to tear everything down and are now stuck at the bottom of the standings for an insufferable amount of time.

 

[sandviper]

Anybody else get the feeling this roster is a bit stuck?

Older scrubs are immovable
Young players underperforming but not worth trading away
Other young players mostly worthless on the trade market (ie replacement level)
Only one forward we can call up who might be relevant to our future

It can’t be that Kirby Dach was the only bright up and comer on this roster.

It feels like we haven’t seen sufficient growth from our young players year-on-year. I haven’t looked at adv stats but it’s worth looking into. Suzuki hasn’t hit a higher gear and it doesn’t feel like Caufield has any surprises left — he’s our best forward and can be trusted to hit 70ish, but that’s not good enough for a team’s best forward. Guhle is progressing well but it’s hard to bet on him to become a contending team’s top pairing D at this time.

Has Kent Hughes’ patience painted him into a corner? Should he have sold more and tanked harder? I’m not a tankophile but I don’t see a way out of this hole, not with the skill and quality gap we have with our divisional rivals.

Yes, I feel we’re kinda “just there”.

Suzuki and CC haven’t taken the steps I was hoping for. Dach going out really blows.

Monahan is slowing down. I’ll spare bagging on players like Anderson since I’m frustrated as it is.

I’m not onboard with all of Hughes’ decisions but I wouldn’t say he painted himself into a corner. I genuinely don’t believe there was THAT much interest in Anderson as he implied last season. Armia and Gallagher are immovable contracts. Eddy (and Money) were hurt last year at the TDL.

However, I don’t think it’s as bleak as it looks. We lack gamebreakers, I won’t deny that, but some of our prospects still look promising and I do think Suzuki and CC will figure it out. There’s still 2-3 years left in the rebuild so I’ll reserve judgement for a couple more seasons.

That said, I’d really like more experience behind the bench when the team is ready.

 

[A55P2]

Unless an co means guys like Suzuki and Matheson then it means nothing. This narrative that our AHL callups, waiver wire pickups made any difference is pure fantasy. It's just a way for you to play make believe GM.

It wasn't though. Both Belzile and Harvey-Pinard came in and we started winning games. Would they have sustained this level of play this season, it's hard to know. At least RHP seemed to have regressed a bit.

They gave us a fourth line that was almost certain to put pressure on the other team while making no mistakes defensively. It made a huge difference. We were heading towards the bottom of the league before they got called up.

 

[DAChampion]

Anybody else get the feeling this roster is a bit stuck?

Older scrubs are immovable
Young players underperforming but not worth trading away
Other young players mostly worthless on the trade market (ie replacement level)
Only one forward we can call up who might be relevant to our future

It can’t be that Kirby Dach was the only bright up and comer on this roster.

It feels like we haven’t seen sufficient growth from our young players year-on-year. I haven’t looked at adv stats but it’s worth looking into. Suzuki hasn’t hit a higher gear and it doesn’t feel like Caufield has any surprises left — he’s our best forward and can be trusted to hit 70ish, but that’s not good enough for a team’s best forward. Guhle is progressing well but it’s hard to bet on him to become a contending team’s top pairing D at this time.

Has Kent Hughes’ patience painted him into a corner? Should he have sold more and tanked harder? I’m not a tankophile but I don’t see a way out of this hole, not with the skill and quality gap we have with our divisional rivals.

I think it's going to be a major challenge for Hughes that Armia, Anderson, Gallagher, Dvorak, and Savard are immovable. This year it doesn't matter as they were probably not signing a UFA, but it should be a bigger challenge next year. That's around 24 million for 5 roster spots getting , on average, replacement-level play or worse.

On the bright side, Hughes has shown he's willing to retain on multi year deals. So that should help next year as Edmundson and Alzner will come off the books.

Aside from Roy, I do think that Farrell and Heinemen might be relevant. We haven't heard of the latter because he was injured, hopefully he comes back strong. We'll see.

 

[ReHabs]

However, I don’t think it’s as bleak as it looks. We lack gamebreakers, I won’t deny that, but some of our prospects still look promising and I do think Suzuki and CC will figure it out. There’s still 2-3 years left in the rebuild so I’ll reserve judgement for a couple more seasons.

Lacking gamebreakers is bleak. You can't win a thing without gamebreakers.

We had one of the very best (Carey Price) and it wasn't nearly sufficient. We went from 1 gamebreaker to 0. Can we pick one up this year or will it turn out to be a "weak draft" again?

 

[Nicko999]

Anybody else get the feeling this roster is a bit stuck?

Older scrubs are immovable
Young players underperforming but not worth trading away
Other young players mostly worthless on the trade market (ie replacement level)
Only one forward we can call up who might be relevant to our future

It can’t be that Kirby Dach was the only bright up and comer on this roster.

It feels like we haven’t seen sufficient growth from our young players year-on-year. I haven’t looked at adv stats but it’s worth looking into. Suzuki hasn’t hit a higher gear and it doesn’t feel like Caufield has any surprises left — he’s our best forward and can be trusted to hit 70ish, but that’s not good enough for a team’s best forward. Guhle is progressing well but it’s hard to bet on him to become a contending team’s top pairing D at this time.

Has Kent Hughes’ patience painted him into a corner? Should he have sold more and tanked harder? I’m not a tankophile but I don’t see a way out of this hole, not with the skill and quality gap we have with our divisional rivals.

Yes and the sooner people see this the better.

I was one of the few people critical of Hughes early on. If he is still keeping thar scouting staff, then he deserves every bit of blame as them.

How many drafts we need to waste before the REAL rebuild starts? If I was making the decisions, Cooley and Michkov would be part of the team. Instead we got a project (with the 1st overall!?) and a D with safe but somewhat limited ceiling.

There is something very rotten with this team.

 

[Milhouse40]

Lacking gamebreakers is bleak. You can't win a thing without gamebreakers.

We had one of the very best (Carey Price) and it wasn't nearly sufficient. We went from 1 gamebreaker to 0. Can we pick one up this year or will it turn out to be a "weak draft" again?

We might have one in Hutson......

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

How many drafts we need to waste before the REAL rebuild starts? If I was making the decisions, Cooley and Michkov would be part of the team. Instead we got a project (with the 1st overall!?) and a D with safe but somewhat limited ceiling.

easy to say now but you had Wright over Cooley on draft day

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Y'all really thought Suzuki and Caufield were magically gonna take some immense leaps in their game without getting anybody to play with them or a pp quarterback? Im not saying we should have got a pp quarterback just for those two since I am an avid Tankophile. But without that they will not improve in points totals.

Suzuki and Caufield are what they are. They arent ppg players and the only way they will be is by powerplay points inflation (which every good player on a good powerplay gets).

I really don't know what people are expecting from the forward group in terms of development almost the entire team is vets we only have Slaf and Ylonen and Newhook as young forwards on the team that I can see improving. And ylonen is meh

And the forward pipeline is garbage in my opinion like Roy is nice but he does not move the needle going forward.



The moral of the story is tank harder or go home.

The sky is not falling unless hughes thinks he can compete with Caufield and Suzuki as our best forwards , if so I have no hope for management.

If they realise we need elite forward talent and will work towards that in the next few years be it the draft or trades than I don't really have a problem with the suckage.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

If we didn't have 0 ENG we'd have a lot more regulation wins. The idea that we are lucky getting points via OT/Shootout falls flat against how unlucky we have been when the opposing team pulls their goalie.

We are not unlucky at 6vs5 the other team just dominates and slaps us in the face us every time its 6 vs 5. Calling it unlucky is crazy when the team is pure dogmeat and turtles at the end of games where they lead

 

[Lshap]

Anybody else get the feeling this roster is a bit stuck?

Older scrubs are immovable
Young players underperforming but not worth trading away
Other young players mostly worthless on the trade market (ie replacement level)
Only one forward we can call up who might be relevant to our future

It can’t be that Kirby Dach was the only bright up and comer on this roster.

It feels like we haven’t seen sufficient growth from our young players year-on-year. I haven’t looked at adv stats but it’s worth looking into. Suzuki hasn’t hit a higher gear and it doesn’t feel like Caufield has any surprises left — he’s our best forward and can be trusted to hit 70ish, but that’s not good enough for a team’s best forward. Guhle is progressing well but it’s hard to bet on him to become a contending team’s top pairing D at this time.

Has Kent Hughes’ patience painted him into a corner? Should he have sold more and tanked harder? I’m not a tankophile but I don’t see a way out of this hole, not with the skill and quality gap we have with our divisional rivals.

I'll feel this team is 'stuck' if there's still no sign of high-end offence by next season. Our future D looks promising, but we're never becoming a contender with a forward group of 'maybes' and 'hopefullys'. I doubt we're getting better opportunities to add scoring than the last two top picks plus the next one, so somewhere in there we need a homerun.

Trades are another route to add offence, and I like Hughes' boldness so far, but it's far more practical and cost-effective to draft your future stars than trade for them, or sign them as expensive UFAs.

 

[Hacketts]

You have a game breaker in CBJ that is spiralling. Lots of risk, but players like him don't come by often.

 

[Miller Time]

Yes and the sooner people see this the better.

I was one of the few people critical of Hughes early on. If he is still keeping thar scouting staff, then he deserves every bit of blame as them.

How many drafts we need to waste before the REAL rebuild starts? If I was making the decisions, Cooley and Michkov would be part of the team. Instead we got a project (with the 1st overall!?) and a D with safe but somewhat limited ceiling.

There is something very rotten with this team.

Methinks you haven't been following Cooley very closely...