HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[sandviper]

Kotkaniemi got squandered to feed Marc Bergevin’s ego

In hindsight, if the Habs knew Weber and Price were at the precipice of retirement and that Danault was on his way out, they should’ve been extra willing to make it work with Kotkaniemi and hand him another opportunity. Very strange to give up on a 3OA when he’s still so young. Dumb and strange.

Strange for the rest of us, but shouldn’t be all that strange since this is just Bergy’s way of working and dealing with youth. Dumb decisions all around, including the flipping of the pick+ for Dvorak, losing Danault for nothing and extending Armia that summer, somehow getting “surprised” with Weber and Price going on LTIR as well as being tone deaf with that draft that summer…

Anyhow, Kotkaniemi never would had been given the chance given at that time… Ducharme was also extended.

 

[covfefe]

Correct, tanking is a losing strategy more often than not. Real world GMs rarely attempt it for a whole season. I don't consider selling at the deadline after trying to compete "tanking".

Some fans have a romanticized version of reality in their heads when they advocate tanking, but again, the league is PURPOSELY structured to only give partial relief to bad teams. The NHL is careful not to over-reward bad teams because it would destroy the incentive structure of any professional sports league.

if you aren't a FA destination, the draft is your only lifeline. so the idea is that you don't screw up at the draft.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

if you aren't a FA destination, the draft is your only lifeline. so the idea is that you don't screw up at the draft.


View attachment 773963

beating a dead horse, they just don't get it.

 

[DAChampion]

if you aren't a FA destination, the draft is your only lifeline. so the idea is that you don't screw up at the draft.


View attachment 773963

Calling Boston a tanking team because they tanked once in the 21st century is ... A stretch.

Those tanking teams largely acquired their stars prior to the change in lottery rules. Your linked chart showed that tanking was the correct strategy prior to 2015. It has no evidence for tanking after 2015.

 

[Guy Larose]

No matter how much you tank, if you can't draft, it's useless. They've picked top 10 4 times (1,3,5,9) in the last 10 years. What do we have to show for it? Too early to tell about current management, but this team has been run like an expansion team for the last 2 decades with rookie coaches, rookie GMs, bad scouting staff, etc. 2 expansion teams are already better than us just a few years in LOL. It's the MTL Canadiens FFS.

 

[DAChampion]

They've picked top 10 4 times (1,3,5,9) in the last 10 years. What do we have to show for it?

Memories of Jonathan Drouin.
Christian Dvorak.
Juray Slafkovsky.
David Reinbacher.

 

[salbutera]

if you aren't a FA destination, the draft is your only lifeline. so the idea is that you don't screw up at the draft.


View attachment 773963

Yet many tanking teams do… repeatedly, simply because drafting 18-years olds not named Ovy, Crosby, McDavid is a crapshoot

Stutzle, Makar, Heiskanen etc..

Cody Glass was this untouchable C for VGK, Suzuki not so much…

 

[Miller Time]

Memories of Jonathan Drouin.
Christian Dvorak.
Juray Slafkovsky.
David Reinbacher.

the pre and post MB era could not be more starkly summarized lol

were going to add a top-10 pick talent this year...

and the past 2 drafts suggest this group does a good job of identifying talent in later rounds...

and Hughes has made clear that accumulating pick/prospect depth is also for having the assets to pull trigger on a deal for established talent upgrades when the opportunity presents itself...

things are rolling along according to plan. Just need some patience.

 

[Tabarouette]

if you aren't a FA destination, the draft is your only lifeline. so the idea is that you don't screw up at the draft.


View attachment 773963

NHL team execs will look at this and go "hmmmm I think we need to be part of an extremely advantageous expansion draft, it's the only way to win a cup, tanking won't work let's just fold the team and apply for a new one"

 

[waitin425]

My first Tankathon this year.....

I'm offering Mailloux, plus our 2nd round pick plus the 2nd overall to Edmonton in this case for Celebrini.

I like Demidov at 2nd overall right now. But, I want Celebrini so bad.

 

[morhilane]

We are good, MSL think the team is better now than it was at the start of the season...

 

[overlords]

Literally last in regulation wins. It's a good thing we're being built to stockpile gongshow points in OT.

Tied for 4th worst in goal diff.

 

[McGees]

Hopefully coaching change in Minny catapults them above us in standings.

 

[Sorinth]

View attachment 774068

Literally last in regulation wins. It's a good thing we're being built to stockpile gongshow points in OT.

View attachment 774073

Tied for 4th worst in goal diff.

When you dig into things a little more you realize what's unsustainable isn't that we've won so many games in OT/Shootout, it's that the games went to OT in the first place.

When a goal is scored with a goalie pulled the median is about 70% of the time it's scored on the empty net. We are sitting at 0 GF and 5 GA, that's insanely unlucky and is way less sustainable then our OT/Shootout record. So as luck drifts back towards the mean we will actually see more RW because we will start scoring ENG which not only prevent us from going into OT in the first place, but will also improve our goal differential as well.

And speaking of goal differential we are +1 at 5 on 5. So again when you dig into the numbers it's not nearly as bad as it might seem.

 

[Sorinth]

if you aren't a FA destination, the draft is your only lifeline. so the idea is that you don't screw up at the draft.


View attachment 773963

The only high Bruins draft pick was Seguin and he was on the 3rd line. Putting them as a tank team is a joke. Also the only guy drafted in the top-10 for LA was Doughty, so again listing them as tanking is nonsense.

But hey you want to know the really fun part, all your tank teams got an elite players outside of their tank picks. So unless you can get a Kucherov or Keith, or Quick, quality player outside of your lottery pick then it doesn't look like your tank will have any success, even if your tank picks are superstars. And since we all know the likelihood of doing that is very small, seems like tanking is actually a bad strategy as it requires enormous amounts of luck to pull off.

 

[McGees]

The only high Bruins draft pick was Seguin and he was on the 3rd line. Putting them as a tank team is a joke. Also the only guy drafted in the top-10 for LA was Doughty, so again listing them as tanking is nonsense.

But hey you want to know the really fun part, all your tank teams got an elite players outside of their tank picks. So unless you can get a Kucherov or Keith, or Quick, quality player outside of your lottery pick then it doesn't look like your tank will have any success, even if your tank picks are superstars. And since we all know the likelihood of doing that is very small, seems like tanking is actually a bad strategy as it requires enormous amounts of luck to pull off.

They aren't a tank team but they are definitely a good (lucky) drafting team with Marchand/Pasta/Bergeron etc...
You can't rely on getting superstars that late as a legitimate game-plan.

 

[Sorinth]

They aren't a tank team but they are definitely a good (lucky) drafting team with Marchand/Pasta/Bergeron etc...
You can't rely on getting superstars that late as a legitimate game-plan.

You can't rely on getting superstars outside of the top picks, but all the tank teams that we are supposed to emulate did just that. You see the problem right.

 

[McGees]

You can't rely on getting superstars outside of the top picks, but all the tank teams that we are supposed to emulate did just that. You see the problem right.

I think the tank teams that haven't succeeded, failed because they didn't surround their stars with proper depth/vets/coaching etc...

 

[montreal]

I think the tank teams that haven't succeeded, failed because they didn't surround their stars with proper depth/vets/coaching etc...

yes, it's just one step in the process, first you have to draft the talent, then you have to build a team around said talent. All very difficult things to do and you will need some luck since it really comes down to having the top pick or top 2 pick in the right year as just about any Hab fan would agree if it meant we could switch our 1st OA from 2022 to 2023.

 

[Miller Time]

The only high Bruins draft pick was Seguin and he was on the 3rd line. Putting them as a tank team is a joke. Also the only guy drafted in the top-10 for LA was Doughty, so again listing them as tanking is nonsense.

But hey you want to know the really fun part, all your tank teams got an elite players outside of their tank picks. So unless you can get a Kucherov or Keith, or Quick, quality player outside of your lottery pick then it doesn't look like your tank will have any success, even if your tank picks are superstars. And since we all know the likelihood of doing that is very small, seems like tanking is actually a bad strategy as it requires enormous amounts of luck to pull off.

Don't disagree with your point, but FYI that the Kings also picked hickey & schenn with top 5 picks... Hickey never panned out, but schenn was the main piece in the Richards trade, so an asset that did contribute significantly to their cup wins... But I don't think the LA cup teams were a reflection of "tanking" nearly as much as they were rosters built to contend off of a mix of quality asset management & internal development (quick, Toffoli, Martinez, muzzin, Pearson.. all big contributors that they developed in house + the strategic additions of Carter & Richards).

 

[Ezpz]

The only high Bruins draft pick was Seguin and he was on the 3rd line. Putting them as a tank team is a joke. Also the only guy drafted in the top-10 for LA was Doughty, so again listing them as tanking is nonsense.

But hey you want to know the really fun part, all your tank teams got an elite players outside of their tank picks. So unless you can get a Kucherov or Keith, or Quick, quality player outside of your lottery pick then it doesn't look like your tank will have any success, even if your tank picks are superstars. And since we all know the likelihood of doing that is very small, seems like tanking is actually a bad strategy as it requires enormous amounts of luck to pull off.

Bruins didn't even have a high pick, they traded Kessel for the Seguin and Hamilton picks. They were midrange bad for two years and whiffed one pick on Hamill.

 

[NORiculous]

You can't rely on getting superstars outside of the top picks, but all the tank teams that we are supposed to emulate did just that. You see the problem right.

So your trying to make it seem like drafting a superstar = failure.

Unbelievable

 

[HuGort]

Strange for the rest of us, but shouldn’t be all that strange since this is just Bergy’s way of working and dealing with youth. Dumb decisions all around, including the flipping of the pick+ for Dvorak, losing Danault for nothing and extending Armia that summer, somehow getting “surprised” with Weber and Price going on LTIR as well as being tone deaf with that draft that summer…

Anyhow, Kotkaniemi never would had been given the chance given at that time… Ducharme was also extended.

Bergs did a lot of good too though. Got us to Finals, without trading any future picks or prospects. Habs only time in 31 years. Made a lot of smart moves

 

[rahad]

How on earth are we above New Jersey in the standing lol

 

[DAChampion]

Again, Chicago, Washington, and Pittsburgh are no longer convincing arguments for tanking as the lottery rules changed in 2015.

It is too early to say patterns will dominate the 2020-2035 period or so, but my best guess is that there is no longer one best strategy to win (such as tanking), just build a good team any way you can.