HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[WeThreeKings]

OK. Ill go with your theory today but tell me at what point would you change that forecast?

January 1st.

 

[LaP]

That's hindsight though. No one penciled our goaltending duo as anything other than essentially bottom of the league tier before season started. Heck, there was even a thread where Allen was labeled as Hughes worst move or something like that. He's currently posting his highest SV% ever, his best since his STL days... but keep in mind it's over a whopping 4 games sample size.

Things will average out eventually, season's barely even started.We'll revisit this in JAN

PS: We're also seeing our young D making improvements, which is bound to help goaltending and push us a bit higher. It's essentially inevitable and should be viewed positively, unless we want to remain trash forever.

Make no mistake Allen and Montembeault is a pretty average to bad goalie duo. 10 games doesn't change that. In fact even 82 games would not change that. I've seen this story so often. A guy coming out of nowhere having a great season or two and then poof midnight crystal shoe must be returned. Mason Marchment with Florida. Teddy Purcell with TB. Shane Grossebière with Flyers. Chris Stewart with Colorado. Dustin Penner with Edmonton. Kristian Heselius with the Flames. Michal Grosek with the Sabres. The list is long.

 

[Takeru]

Make no mistake Allen and Montembeault is a pretty average to bad goalie duo. 10 games doesn't change that. In fact even 82 games would not change that. I've seen this story so often. A guy coming out of nowhere having a great season or two and then poof midnight crystal shoe must be returned. Mason Marchment with Florida. Teddy Purcell with TB. Shane Grossebière with Flyers. Chris Stewart with Colorado. Dustin Penner with Edmonton. Kristian Heselius with the Flames. Michal Grosek with the Sabres. The list is long.

We're on the same page.

There was just no way to realistically get worse goaltending without going needlessly out of our way, and even then with uncertain results. Goaltending is an especially fickle position, apart from the top10 goalies or so plus those playing on teams with the best D-system, it's a wildcard to guess what you're getting.

Allen and Montembeault are your run of the mill inconsistent duo, they'll have good stretches and some horrible ones as well, we're somewhere in a decent one that's hanging by a string. You can't allow 3+goals each game on average while scoring less and expect to sustain winning. We'll be back to average sooner than later.

 

[Sorinth]

For us it depends if the goalies can keep their current streak of playing over expectations

The funny thing with this (And it's not just you) is that we've been hearing it for basically 3 years now how are goalies are stealing games we should lose and hurting our tank. At some point maybe it's the expectations of what NHL level goaltending provides that is wrong. Like sure Allen isn't going to maintain anywhere close to his current .930 SV%, but even when he reverts to norm, his normal will still mean him regularly having good games because he's still an NHL level goaltender.

 

[Captain Mountain]

The funny thing with this (And it's not just you) is that we've been hearing it for basically 3 years now how are goalies are stealing games we should lose and hurting our tank. At some point maybe it's the expectations of what NHL level goaltending provides that is wrong. Like sure Allen isn't going to maintain anywhere close to his current .930 SV%, but even when he reverts to norm, his normal will still mean him regularly having good games because he's still an NHL level goaltender.

Montreal hasn't even been rebuilding or tanking for 3 years. Last season Montembault held Montreal back from being worse, but Montreal had awful goaltending in 2021-2022.

 

[Sorinth]

Montreal hasn't even been rebuilding or tanking for 3 years. Last season Montembault held Montreal back from being worse, but Montreal had awful goaltending in 2021-2022.

And yet if you go back to 2021-2022 tank threads, every time we won a game it caused a mini-panic and people would complain about goaltenders stealing games.

It's also worth mentioning that last year Jake Allen's SV% went down, his GAA average went up compared to 2021-2022 and yet his record was actually better. This really highlights how much last years improvements wasn't a case of the goaltending being better and carrying us.

EDIT: And I will also add that Montembeault's 2022-2023 numbers where he supposedly cost us from tanking properly were still worse then Allen in 2021-2022 which according to you was awful goaltending.

 

[Takeru]

The funny thing with this (And it's not just you) is that we've been hearing it for basically 3 years now how are goalies are stealing games we should lose and hurting our tank. At some point maybe it's the expectations of what NHL level goaltending provides that is wrong. Like sure Allen isn't going to maintain anywhere close to his current .930 SV%, but even when he reverts to norm, his normal will still mean him regularly having good games because he's still an NHL level goaltender.

Fair assessment. It's easy to forget the bigger picture on a game-to-game basis. I mean, what you said applies to any NHL goaltender, and we're the first to be endlessly frustrated when a random no-name goalie shut us out. However, that's par for the course for most teams, happens multiple times a week league wide.

It's also a combined team effort of possession+blocked shots+giveaway/takeaway ratio etc which is why I'm not worrying with current numbers. Most teams who are better than us on paper will kick-in those extra gears as they go along and we likely won't have what it takes to keep up the pace on most nights.

 

[WeThreeKings]

 

[DAChampion]

It's interesting that strong offense and strong defense are so tightly correlated. What that indicates is that they're not actually independent variables as implicitly assumed by the "advanced" stats people making these plots: Strong offense and strong defense go together.

One question, what is it that actually defines outliers such as Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Nashville, Washington, and St-Louis?

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Don't worry folks October games are finally done

Montombeau Allen won't keep playing like that

Monahan Caufield anf Suzuki won't be avle to carry the rest of the team for an entire year

 

[Sorinth]

Fair assessment. It's easy to forget the bigger picture on a game-to-game basis. I mean, what you said applies to any NHL goaltender, and we're the first to be endlessly frustrated when a random no-name goalie shut us out. However, that's par for the course for most teams, happens multiple times a week league wide.

It's also a combined team effort of possession+blocked shots+giveaway/takeaway ratio etc which is why I'm not worrying with current numbers. Most teams who are better than us on paper will kick-in those extra gears as they go along and we likely won't have what it takes to keep up the pace on most nights.

Yeah we will almost certainly fall back at some point but the question is by how much. Do we drop to last years levels post-Monahan, do we drop to MSL overall record, or have we taken a small step forward and finish around .500. It's not as clear cut as it might seem because even though there are a bunch of things inflating us, there are several things that are holding us back that when they revert to norm should help us.

One interesting thing is that our High Danger Corsi % is quite good, so despite being out shot overall we've done a good job at both preventing those high danger shots attempts against and in generating our own. Is it luck or is it more of a system thing where we forcing opposing teams to the perimeter defensively, and offensively we hold/cycle the puck until we get a good chance rather then shoot from anywhere and try for the rebound.

It's interesting that strong offense and strong defense are so tightly correlated. What that indicates is that they're not actually independent variables as implicitly assumed by the "advanced" stats people making these plots: Strong offense and strong defense go together.

One question, what is it that actually defines outliers such as Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Nashville, Washington, and St-Louis?

It shows the old saying that the best defence is a good offence is still true.

 

[SwiftyHab]

January 1st.

I then fully expect you to wake up in a drunken stupor on New Years day, stumble to your nightstand to check the standings on your phone, then sign on here and proclaim whether youre still on team tank or switched to the fun side.

 

[Takeru]

Yeah we will almost certainly fall back at some point but the question is by how much. Do we drop to last years levels post-Monahan, do we drop to MSL overall record, or have we taken a small step forward and finish around .500. It's not as clear cut as it might seem because even though there are a bunch of things inflating us, there are several things that are holding us back that when they revert to norm should help us.

One interesting thing is that our High Danger Corsi % is quite good, so despite being out shot overall we've done a good job at both preventing those high danger shots attempts against and in generating our own. Is it luck or is it more of a system thing where we forcing opposing teams to the perimeter defensively, and offensively we hold/cycle the puck until we get a good chance rather then shoot from anywhere and try for the rebound.


It shows the old saying that the best defence is a good offence is still true.

It boils down to frequency, consistency and timing. How often will the things inflating us outweigh what's holding us back? If everything click together only for a short while, we'll only string a small series of wins. When most things are out of whack, we likely don't go to OT nor are we close to winning most games. I'd expect more of a roller coaster than smooth ride.

An interesting thing to look at are regulation wins. We might be looking all comfy being at the top of the standings but with only 2 clear cut wins, we're in good company with the bottom 10 teams. Which means we're gaining most our points by a hair's breadth. It won't take much for us to derail on the losing end unless we're able to both maintain our success factors and improve our deficiencies, which seems unlikely to me.

 

[morhilane]

It's interesting that strong offense and strong defense are so tightly correlated. What that indicates is that they're not actually independent variables as implicitly assumed by the "advanced" stats people making these plots: Strong offense and strong defense go together.

One question, what is it that actually defines outliers such as Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Nashville, Washington, and St-Louis?

That charts is calculated via xGF% vs xGA%. So if your D are good at stopping shot on nets/keeping them on the perimeter, you'll look good on the D section. If you team is good at shooting on Net and going to the slot, you'll will look good on the O section.

In Hockey, a strong defense means you have the puck more, so your net get shot at less and should be able to shot more if you can carry the puck on the other side of the ice.

 

[Captain Mountain]

And yet if you go back to 2021-2022 tank threads, every time we won a game it caused a mini-panic and people would complain about goaltenders stealing games.

It's also worth mentioning that last year Jake Allen's SV% went down, his GAA average went up compared to 2021-2022 and yet his record was actually better. This really highlights how much last years improvements wasn't a case of the goaltending being better and carrying us.

1. Half the people on here wanted to fire Justin Barron, a 22 year old D-man, into the sun because he had an underwhelming preseason. I don't really care about small sample overreactions.

2. I'm not sure how you could draw that conclusion. For one, the big difference was that Montembault went from having one of the worst seasons for a goalie in the league to one of the best, not Allen. The other part is that Allen was worse, but the difference in record falls within the randomness of hockey and doesn't really have anything to do with any improvement.

 

[Sorinth]

It boils down to frequency, consistency and timing. How often will the things inflating us outweigh what's holding us back? If everything click together only for a short while, we'll only string a small series of wins. When most things are out of whack, we likely don't go to OT nor are we close to winning most games. I'd expect more of a roller coaster than smooth ride.

An interesting thing to look at are regulation wins. We might be looking all comfy being at the top of the standings but with only 2 clear cut wins, we're in good company with the bottom 10 teams. Which means we're gaining most our points by a hair's breadth. It won't take much for us to derail on the losing end unless we're able to both maintain our success factors and improve our deficiencies, which seems unlikely to me.

Well said. and yes I fully expect this season to be somewhat of a roller coaster, and just like this current high isn't representative of how good we are, neither will be our lowest lows. We are facing two games we probably have a good chance of winning this week (ARI & STL) but then we have a tough stretch where we face Boston twice, Vegas again, Tampa, Detroit, Vancouver with only Calgary being/playing bad and there's a B2B game in there. Then two easy games (ANA, SJS) to bring us to the quarter mark of the season which is probably a good time to take stock of where we are as a team.

 

[Sorinth]

1. Half the people on here wanted to fire Justin Barron, a 22 year old D-man, into the sun because he had an underwhelming preseason. I don't really care about small sample overreactions.

2. I'm not sure how you could draw that conclusion. For one, the big difference was that Montembault went from having one of the worst seasons for a goalie in the league to one of the best, not Allen. The other part is that Allen was worse, but the difference in record falls within the randomness of hockey and doesn't really have anything to do with any improvement.

I mean this one of the best in the league seasons was a SV% of .901 and a GAA of 3.42, hardly Vezina caliber numbers there, and as I pointed out in my edit, it's in fact worse then Allen's numbers in 2021-2022.

 

[Milhouse40]

Don't worry folks October games are finally done

Montombeau Allen won't keep playing like that

Monahan Caufield anf Suzuki won't be avle to carry the rest of the team for an entire year

Well....I might aso have some bad news for you that might counter balance that.....

1- Dvorak is coming back which means our top 6 is getting some help and our PK too
2- In the last 5 games the PP is 27.8%, small sample too early

 

[SOLR]

The funny thing with this (And it's not just you) is that we've been hearing it for basically 3 years now how are goalies are stealing games we should lose and hurting our tank. At some point maybe it's the expectations of what NHL level goaltending provides that is wrong. Like sure Allen isn't going to maintain anywhere close to his current .930 SV%, but even when he reverts to norm, his normal will still mean him regularly having good games because he's still an NHL level goaltender.

Yep, but if he were 910 or 900 like other goalies playing behind tank like Ds, we would lose a lot of games by default.

 

[McGees]

I don't buy those stats as a gauge on our wins.
All the goalies have been solid but definitely not stealing every game.
Time for someone to send us a 1st for one them.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Well....I might aso have some bad news for you that might counter balance that.....

1- Dvorak is coming back which means our top 6 is getting some help and our PK too
2- In the last 5 games the PP is 27.8%, small sample too early

No worries , our dsquad is a mess anyways , PK won't matter. Our goalies are playing above their skillsets lately.
Dont worry aabout the PP once Monahan CC and Suzu go dry , whole team with be vanilla. The major piece being Dach is where it hurts the lineup

 

[Sorinth]

Yep, but if he were 910 or 900 like other goalies playing behind tank like Ds, we would lose a lot of games by default.

As a team we are at .912 so it's not like it we aren't pretty close to your numbers, also, Montembeault had a .901 last year, which is at the low end of your range, and last year it was all about Montembeault stealing games and stopping us from tanking properly.

I think your overestimating how many games it would actually change. Not would any extra goals more likely come against the good teams, ie the games we were already not getting many points in, but it's also likely that extra goals would come in bunches, so rather then turning a bunch of 1 goal wins turned into losses, it would probably mostly be turning close games that we lost into blowout losses.

 

[McGees]

 

[MtlSars]

We always do great in October, anybody following the Habs knows it. By December it will slow down and we won't be able to manage .500 hockey.

If anything, this situation bodes well for trading a goalie. By the TDL we can gain a decent asset for either Allen or Montembeault.

I mean injuries hurt us at the TDL last year as well and could haunt us down the line but should Monahan stay healthy (fingers crossed), we have Savard, a goalie, Josh Anderson and even maybe a young D player ,Matheson also being available down the line that can help a competing team and be worth something, we have a little cap space too.

All those could turn into juicy picks , which we will have an abundance of. We can use them or trade them for more Dach like players. If the Habs youth progress and we shed vets aka deadwood intelligently, we can actually start winning and have other teams give us our high draft picks.....we got very unlucky with the Panthers pick last year and the Calgary one looks mighty appealing in the next 2....

The tank is going well even if we don't get top 5 draft pick this year is my point. Demidov at 7th ?

 

[SOLR]

As a team we are at .912 so it's not like it we aren't pretty close to your numbers, also, Montembeault had a .901 last year, which is at the low end of your range, and last year it was all about Montembeault stealing games and stopping us from tanking properly.

I think your overestimating how many games it would actually change. Not would any extra goals more likely come against the good teams, ie the games we were already not getting many points in, but it's also likely that extra goals would come in bunches, so rather then turning a bunch of 1 goal wins turned into losses, it would probably mostly be turning close games that we lost into blowout losses.

At 901 we finished in the bottom 5... at 890 you are bottom 2-3.

In October we'll score more goals than we should because everybody is healthy. As we progressively lose goal for, the goaltender at 910 isn't making you win games, suddenly it takes 925 (Price, and that's why he could transform a losing team in a playoff team)