HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[Runner77]

But JK is a baffling mistake. We were in a win now position. Win now as in right f***** now not in 5 years. Both Price and Weber were getting close to the mid 30ies wall most players hit. I would have understand the JK pick in the context of a rebuild. But in the context where you want to win now the most NHL ready prospect was clearly BK and it's not revisionist it was clear on draft day. So you either go for the NHL ready prospect who project as a 30 goals and 60 points winger and wont take 5 years to reach it or you trade the pick for a center. Drafting a not unanimous project was stupid imo.

Well the KK pick was more than a mistake and it was easily explainable. They made the classic overreach based on need. That’s on the GM and a waste of a high drafting slot.

 

[LaP]

Because it is crap. KK - Tkachuk is irrelvant. Dumbo made that pick. The point is that if you thrust the management team then the higher the pick the better.

Right now SLaf looks like a good pick. Will he be the better player of his year maybe not but atm it looks like he'll be top 5 minimum so certainly not a bust and with his intangibles if he improves a bit the case for him as the right pick 1st overall will be easy to make.

I have my doubts on Reinbacher but what he has shown as a 19 years old player in the AHL is very good. Sample size is small but there's no reason atm to think he was a bad pick at 5.

 

[CHwest]

It's a joke - for the same people that made every trade offer Ryder, Halak and a 2nd...It is now Harris, Kidney and a 2nd

Well now I feel kind of silly.

 

[LaP]

Well the KK pick was more than a mistake and it was easily explainable. They made the classic overreach based on need. That’s on the GM and a waste of a high drafting slot.

I would understand drafting for need in the situation we were. But you got to go with a NHL ready guy with Weber being 33 and Price being 31. JK was not even close to be NHL ready. A power forward winger was a need too btw we were actually fine at center with Suzuki and Danault.

 

[417]

Man, it’s not like you to serve a fastball right in the middle of the plate. ;-)

More to the point, current management will make their own mistakes but sometimes having an earlier pick by only one slot can make a world of difference (we missed out on Svechnikov and Will Smith by one draft slot and in Smith’s case, Hughes reportedly made multiple attempts to get into that top 4 stratosphere last year), so that one increment away turned out to be huge.

I could have chosen other examples though,

I agree, earlier pick the better, but even more important is to pick the right player. That should always be the focus and convincing ourselves that simply having the earlier pick guarantees a better player is a fool's errand.

 

[CHwest]

Well the KK pick was more than a mistake and it was easily explainable. They made the classic overreach based on need. That’s on the GM and a waste of a high drafting slot.

It happened because the numb skull bin man watched Columbus reach 2 years earlier and thought that is the way to go. It didn't work out for Columbus either.

 

[417]

Because it is crap. KK - Tkachuk is irrelvant. Dumbo made that pick. The point is that if you thrust the management team then the higher the pick the better.

Again, I used the KK pick as an example, I could have chosen a multitude of other teams/players to illustrate that an NHL draft outcome, rarely, if ever, goes how it was projected to be.

Do re-drafts if you don't believe me.

2019 re-draft does not go with the same top 5 that was drafted, ditto with 2020, perhaps too early to tell for 2021...but it's not trending the way it ended or was projected.

So while I can't guarantee you who will end up the best from the 2024 draft after Celebrini, I can almost guarantee that the players chosen between 2 to 7 will not end up being the same players going 2 to 7 in a redraft in 2026.

 

[Runner77]

I would understand drafting for need in the situation we were. But you got to go with a NHL ready guy with Weber being 33 and Price being 31. JK was not even close to be NHL ready. A power forward winger was a need too btw we were actually fine at center with Suzuki and Danault.

If the power forward winger happens to be the clear BPA, then sure. In this case, he was the BPA but I don’t remember how unanimous he might have been on an authoritative ranking like Bobby Mac’s.

Essentially, that earlier pick can make a world of a difference in certain draft years but in the hands of an incompetent, it may not be as material.

 

[LaP]

If the power forward winger happens to be the clear BPA, then sure. In this case, he was the BPA but I don’t remember how unanimous he might have been on an authoritative ranking like Bobby Mac’s.

Essentially, that earlier pick can make a world of a difference in certain draft years but in the hands of an incompetent, it may not be as material.

BT being BPA was definitly not unanimous. But BT being the more NHL ready was. I don't think there was a clear BPA that year at 3rd overall honestly. After the 2nd pick there was a bunch of players very close. I'd argue skill wise the "clear" BPA was Hughes but his size and defensive game was a massive issue and risk at 3rd overall. But skill wise sky was definitely the limit for him.

 

[Runner77]

I could have chosen other examples though,

I agree, earlier pick the better, but even more important is to pick the right player. That should always be the focus and convincing ourselves that simply having the earlier pick guarantees a better player is a fool's errand.

It greatly depends on the competence of the decision-maker(s) holding that earlier drafting slot, as I’ve tried to argue, above.

If the selecting GM is an incompetent or is surrounded by unreliable advisors, then your contention holds true — that higher drafting slot may be squandered anyway.

 

[417]

It greatly depends on the competence of the decision-maker(s) holding that earlier drafting slot, as I’ve tried to argue, above.

If the selecting GM is an incompetent or is surrounded by unreliable advisors, then your contention holds true — that higher drafting slot may be squandered anyway.

Yes at root I don't disagree but even competent GMs/scouting staffs make blunders.

I just have a lot of trouble behaving that an entry draft is an exact science when there's ample evidence to show it's clearly not.

Or perhaps it's MB era PTSD taking over.

 

[Runner77]

Yes at root I don't disagree but even competent GMs/scouting staffs make blunders.

I just have a lot of trouble behaving that an entry draft is an exact science when there's ample evidence to show it's clearly not.

Or perhaps it's MB era PTSD taking over.

It’s an inexact science even though drafting has become more efficient over the years. Perfection is the enemy of the good and the good in our example, is how that better slot allows to mitigate a modicum of risk in the hands of a competent decision maker.

 

[Gravity]

Y'all can thank me now

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

I would prefer a forward but I’m sure I’m in a pretty small minority that is happy enough with our forward situation to truly go bpa

There is no way the bpa this year is a def, impossible !!
100% the bpa will be a forward, 100% positive about that !!

 

[nhlfan9191]

Y'all can thank me now
View attachment 854703

Celebrini doesn’t give me the vibes we’ll regret not tanking harder like last year. We have a good prospect available wherever we pick in our range.

 

[Habby4Life]

After the two failed 3rd overall picks they should draft BPA no matter of position.

However, I can see a scenario if they don't move up and Eiserman and Lindstom are gone that they move down and go after Ignila.

If they don't move up I will be very pleased because they will get one of Eiserman or Lindstrom.

Time will tell, I have faith in Hugo.

 

[MeanMugging91]

Celebrini doesn’t give me the vibes we’ll regret not tanking harder like last year. We have a good prospect available wherever we pick in our range.

I see what your doing here. The reverse jinx. Smart

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I could have chosen other examples though,

I agree, earlier pick the better, but even more important is to pick the right player. That should always be the focus and convincing ourselves that simply having the earlier pick guarantees a better player is a fool's errand.

Agreed. But I believe this management team knows what they are doing and may well benefit if they have the 5 pick over say 6 or 7. If MB was in charge I wouldn't have cared where we picked. Probably wouldn't even be a tank thread.

 

[HuGort]

I also heard that (real quote) but I don't really believe in that scenario tbh.
Below us are:
ARI - Will they really pay us something worthwhile if they know we want a fwd and they want a LD, and they are the very next pick?
OTT - We won't want to be dunked on by OTT for a decade, for giving a better pick to a direct competitor.
SEA - They're lean on other interesting picks to move up. They do have a few recent prospects picked 30-45 that are turning heads but if you want to flip em to a team in the 15-20 range you need to know their preference and it gets complex.
CGY - If they move up it's likely to snag Iginla, and that doesn't help your case. I don't think they need to move up to grab Yakemchuk if we're assuming they love their local talent.
NJD - We're already at 10 and I think that's too big of a drop for MTL to consider at this point. But for the sake of it, they're also lean on picks and I'm not a fan of Holtz or the rest of their prospect pool.
BUF - Again, pretty big drop, and they don't need an LD. Gotta wonder if they'd put a Kulich on the table tho.

Add to that, that you basically have to make both trades concurrently (trade down to get asset, 27OA + said asset for 15-20OA) while the team is on the clock (because you only consider a trade down if your forward targets are officially gone)... unlikely.

Hughes must had talks with a team to make that public. Because he certainly would know scenario you just described.

 

[26Mats]

If the Jets win tonight, they leap frog the Canuks, Panthers, and Bruins in the standings.

BUT, since the Panthers and Canucks are division winners, it won't affect their draft position as long as the Canucks, Panthers, and Jets don't make the conference finals. For the teams that don't make the conference finals, division winners get seeded after non-division winners

 

[417]

If the Jets win tonight, they leap frog the Canuks, Panthers, and Bruins in the standings.

BUT, since the Panthers and Canucks are division winners, it won't affect their draft position as long as the Canucks, Panthers, and Jets don't make the conference finals. For the teams that don't make the conference finals, division winners get seeded after non-division winners

I’ve read this about a dozen times and just finally gave up.

Just shoot me a DM when you know where the Jets pick lands lol

 

[themilosh]

I'm sorry but calling the forwards after Celibrini 2nd line forwards is very wrong. It's just that Celibrini is very very good he's an above average 1st overall pick. There's a couple of very good dmen though but that doesn't mean the forwards are not 1st line potential.

Other than Lindstrom (and possibly Demidov) none of the other forwards are good enough to even consider being a top 6 in 2 years.

Our window begins then.. no more development free reign, we will be in contend mode and must have our top 6 ready by then (with depth). Our D are going to be amazing in 2 years, along with one of Primeau/Monty/Fowler ready to win.

So this is why you take the RHD as insurance for greatness, and then trade for that vet star/merchant when ready.

 

[26Mats]

I’ve read this about a dozen times and just finally gave up.

Just shoot me a DM when you know where the Jets pick lands lol

Will do. It's excruciatingly painful to follow.

But right now, best case scenario if Jets lose tonight is the pick is 22nd. Best case scenario if they win is 23rd overall...

 

[themilosh]

If the power forward winger happens to be the clear BPA, then sure. In this case, he was the BPA but I don’t remember how unanimous he might have been on an authoritative ranking like Bobby Mac’s.

Essentially, that earlier pick can make a world of a difference in certain draft years but in the hands of an incompetent, it may not be as material.

I like how you turned this readable adjective into a full stop noun.

 

[The Real Timo]

Holy shit, there are still games tonight. I had no idea. Can Habs still make da playoffs?