HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[cave troll]

Before the Avs became a top team, they drafted Matt Duchene at 3rd overall, Hishon at 17th overall, and Landeskog at 2nd overall. None of those guys are forwards that can be your best one on a cup contender. Then got Mackinnon with their 1st overall, Bleackley at 23rd overall, Rantanen at 10th, Jost at 10th, and Makar at 4. So it took them 5 years to get a star forward in Mackinnon, then an additional 5 years to get that superstar dman they desperately needed in Makar.

Yes, but Avs would never win SC if Sakic didn't to the GM masterpiece on the market with all the trades. MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen and Landeskog playing with bunch of scrubs would win nothing.
Sakic won the SC by getting Kadri, Toews, Nuke, Burakovsky, Lehkonen, Manson, Kumeper...

 

[Milhouse40]

Losing Dach was a lot bigger than most think.
It's not just the player here.

Suzuki's line are the only line being focused on by our opponents.

You add a Dach's line behind them, well, Dach had 16pts in 19 games for a reason at center behind Suzuki. That suddenly create 2 offensive line to check, splitting the load.

Losing Dach (and Newhook to some extent) meant losing the ability to have two offensive line.

Caufield - Suzuki - Anderson
Slafkovsky - Dach - Newhook

This was our top 6 on game 1
100% sure the opposing team would not have focused all their attention on Suzuki's line anymore

 

[montreal]

The real reason that the tank is ending is that the Habs are now too good to tank. They're barely tanking this year thanks to Dach's season long injury

The tank only ends when the team gets good enough and imo they don't look anywhere near good enough. They appear to me to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year and I would expect more of the same next year unless you get a really big jump from a few young players/prospects.

 

[The Great Weal]

Yes, but Avs would never win SC if Sakic didn't to the GM masterpiece on the market with all the trades. MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen and Landeskog playing with bunch of scrubs would win nothing.
Sakic won the SC by getting Kadri, Toews, Nuke, Burakovsky, Lehkonen, Manson, Kumeper...

Sure but that's the nucleus of the team where MacKinnon and Makar are top 10 players in the league and Rantanen is one of the best wingers in the league. You need to hit on some high picks, draft well outside of high picks, make key trades and signings, and also be lucky. You aren't going anywhere if you just do one of those things.

 

[Sorinth]

The tank only ends when the team gets good enough and imo they don't look anywhere near good enough. They appear to me to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year and I would expect more of the same next year unless you get a really big jump from a few young players/prospects.

I believe you are a big fan of looking at goal differential as a good measure for a team. And yeah our -29 goal differential puts us firmly at the bottom. But when you dig into the numbers you realize that it's not going to take a herculean effort to turn them around.

If we improved our GAs while penalty killing to be the median value we would gain +12 to our goal differential, if we gave up the same number of shorthanded goals as the median team we would gain +6 to our goal differential, when defending against an empty net if we get to the median value that's +5 goals to our differential, just getting to our previous season's level is a +3.

So it's really not as bad as it looks, cut down on the penalties taken, be our normal bad self when the opponents pull their goalie, and play Matheson less on the PP and we are going to have a middle of the pack goal differential. Those things don't require a really big jump from our youngsters.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

The tank only ends when the team gets good enough and imo they don't look anywhere near good enough. They appear to me to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year and I would expect more of the same next year unless you get a really big jump from a few young players/prospects.

If Newhook and Dach can stay healthy they are playoff team or very close to one.

 

[Gravity]

The tank only ends when the team gets good enough and imo they don't look anywhere near good enough. They appear to me to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year and I would expect more of the same next year unless you get a really big jump from a few young players/prospects.

All their flaws are masked by superb goaltending. Just like Bergevin's teams with Carey Price.

 

[26Mats]

Losing Dach was a lot bigger than most think.
It's not just the player here.

Suzuki's line are the only line being focused on by our opponents.

You add a Dach's line behind them, well, Dach had 16pts in 19 games for a reason at center behind Suzuki. That suddenly create 2 offensive line to check, splitting the load.

Losing Dach (and Newhook to some extent) meant losing the ability to have two offensive line.

Caufield - Suzuki - Anderson
Slafkovsky - Dach - Newhook

This was our top 6 on game 1
100% sure the opposing team would not have focused all their attention on Suzuki's line anymore

I think Ylonen or Roy will beat out Anderson for a top 6 spot. Not sure Slaf doesn't stay with Suzuki and Caufield.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

All their flaws are masked by superb goaltending. Just like Bergevin's teams with Carey Price.

Habs do not have a goaltender close to Price. They have had good goaltending but nothing spectacular.

 

[Sorinth]

Habs do not have a goaltender close to Price. They have had good goaltending but nothing spectacular.

Yeah it's like any time the goalie makes a good save some people think the goalie is stealing the game, and since every goalie makes a few good saves every game it ends up with people claiming every game we win the goalie stole it. It's just an absurd rationalization because they want the team to lose.

 

[HuGort]

Useless point. Play Allen for godsake

Hughes says better for development if they play meaningful games

 

[McEsenpi]

Dont worry we will suck next year again

 

[Nicko999]

Sharks allow a goal with 5 seconds left in regulation while the Habs hang on for dear live just to lost in OT.

Habs keep shooting themselves in the foot for the past 30 years.

 

[LaP]

I agree but my assessment is Ryan Johansen. I'd love for him to exceed that though.

Ryan Johansen would be fine. A constant Ryan Johansen. The problem with Ryan Johansen is he was a very inconsistent player. 60 points one season, 70 the next then a 50 points pace than boom 70 points then ohhhh 50 points again. There was no consistency in his performances during the regular season specially the goal scoring part. He was pretty good in payoffs though when it mattered.

 

[WeThreeKings]

We got 2 pts out of a possible 6 last week.. that's with playing the Sharks.. so that's about best case scenario for the tank.

 

[LaP]

We got 2 pts out of a possible 6 last week.. that's with playing the Sharks.. so that's about best case scenario for the tank.

We have 4 points in our last 5 games (10 points possibility). We faced the Sharks, Sabres and two teams who did not show up (NYR and Edmonton). I've seen McDavid enough to know he was either hangover or did not bother. And when McDavid doesn't show up Edmonton is a bottom 10 team. NYR was not anywhere near the team they usually are they clearly decided to do the strict minimum to grab 2 points. That 5 games sequence could have been a catastrophe but it ended up being quite okay for the tank with a .400 P% and no RW while Monty plays well (he's due for a bad sequence eventually).

 

[Lshap]

The tank only ends when the team gets good enough and imo they don't look anywhere near good enough. They appear to me to be one of the worst teams in the league again this year and I would expect more of the same next year unless you get a really big jump from a few young players/prospects.

We should expect progress next season from our young future core. Guhle, Barron, Struble, Slafkovsky should all improve. A healthy Dach will be a big boost and Newhook adds solid depth. As these young players improve, our team improves. That's the normal trajectory of a rebuild, no?

The other thing about a roster built around youth is you can't predict when they gel into a winning team. If – and it's a big "If" – we have a good crop of developing kids, they could surprise everyone.

 

[LaP]

The other thing about a roster built around youth is you can't predict when they gel into a winning team. If – and it's a big "If" – we have a good crop of developing kids, they could surprise everyone.

Took 5 years for MacKinnon. 6 years for Kopitar.

 

[JRichard]

We have 4 points in our last 5 games (10 points possibility). We faced the Sharks, Sabres and two teams who did not show up (NYR and Edmonton). I've seen McDavid enough to know he was either hangover or did not bother. And when McDavid doesn't show up Edmonton is a bottom 10 team. NYR was not anywhere near the team they usually are they clearly decided to do the strict minimum to grab 2 points. That 5 games sequence could have been a catastrophe but it ended up being quite okay for the tank with a .400 P% and no RW while Monty plays well (he's due for a bad sequence eventually).

Yes, the Saturday night home games mystery: 14 pts out of 16 this year. Pts in all 16 games. For a sub .500 team.

Backup goalies, hangovers, quick power play goals, whatever it is it is working!

 

[digmor crusher]

I think Ylonen or Roy will beat out Anderson for a top 6 spot. Not sure Slaf doesn't stay with Suzuki and Caufield.

I think Ylonen is a career 4th liner.

 

[Colezuki]

Took 5 years for MacKinnon. 6 years for Kopitar.

Dach will be at 6 next year, Caufield the same, Newhook the same,

We're about 2 years out I'd say

 

[LaP]

Dach will be at 6 next year, Caufield the same, Newhook the same,

We're about 2 years out I'd say

I meant 5 and 6 full NHL season not years after the draft. Suzuki will be in his 6th full NHL season next year but Caufield will be in his 5th seasons. But yeah next year we should start to compete for a playoffs spot.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Buffalo up 2-0 on San Jose late in 2nd period. They pass Montreal with a win. We'll see what happens with the Colorado game, but imo Colorado is a vastly better team than Edmonton.

 

[montreal]

If Newhook and Dach can stay healthy they are playoff team or very close to one.

I doubt that very much

All their flaws are masked by superb goaltending. Just like Bergevin's teams with Carey Price.

I don't watch them that much but superb goaltending sounds over the top as I can't say I have been too impresses with any of the goalies though I also can't say I pay much attention to them. They seem to be doing good but their #'s don't seem impressive for superb.

We should expect progress next season from our young future core. Guhle, Barron, Struble, Slafkovsky should all improve. A healthy Dach will be a big boost and Newhook adds solid depth. As these young players improve, our team improves. That's the normal trajectory of a rebuild, no?

The other thing about a roster built around youth is you can't predict when they gel into a winning team. If – and it's a big "If" – we have a good crop of developing kids, they could surprise everyone.

You should expect that some will progress and some won't. I never said it's not a normal trajectory of a rebuild as I know it is just as I know you can't predict when they will gel into a winning team just that as of today I am not impressed at all with the talent they have. They could easily surprise but it could also be a long road ahead.

Buffalo up 2-0 on San Jose late in 2nd period. They pass Montreal with a win. We'll see what happens with the Colorado game, but imo Colorado is a vastly better team than Edmonton.

Since we have 2 games in hand, by win % we are .011% above the sabers for now.

The Wild beating NYI would be cool, same for the Blues over the Flyers.

 

[LaP]

Since we have 2 games in hand, by win % we are .011% above the sabers for now.

The Wild beating NYI would be cool, same for the Blues over the Flyers.

We are pretty much 100% sure to not have the tie break over Buffalo at the end of the season though so we have to finish in front of them at the end of the year. They have 17 RW and we have 8 RW. The sky would need to fall for us to have more RW than them at the end of the year. We are unlikely to have the tie break on Ottawa too.

It's crazy our position in the standings considering the few amount of RW we have. If the draft would be decided by RW we would draft 2nd atm. If the draft would be decided by goals differential we would draft 5th atm. We are getting too many of those extra points in overtime.