Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

[habamillions]

It’s extremely frustrating to not make the playoffs given the results so far. I think that the Jays would do quite well against most of the field.

That was my thought exactly.

 

[Nineteen67]

Boston and Atlanta advance

 

[Lightsol]

Boston and Atlanta advance

I would be betting on the MLB praying the winner of the San Fran-LA series goes on a huge run and wins this to avoid embarrassment, but then I remember which league this is. They're probably praying for a big run from the Red Sox; MONEY, BABY!

 

[Nineteen67]

I would be betting on the MLB praying the winner of the San Fran-LA series goes on a huge run and wins this to avoid embarrassment, but then I remember which league this is. They're probably praying for a big run from the Red Sox; MONEY, BABY!

TV networks are praying for a Red Sox Dodgers for the eyeballs. Or Houston Dodgers so they get all the “hate watchers”.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays offseason overview: Key dates, qualifying offers, club options and other decisions for the future - The Athletic

Free agents, club options and more

The World Series is scheduled from Oct. 26 to Nov. 3. The soonest it could end is Oct. 30. That’s important to know because the day after the final game of the World Series kicks off the start of the offseason. It goes as follows:

• The day after the World Series ends, trading can resume and free agency opens. But for the first five days, teams are restricted to negotiating only with their own free agents. This time frame is known as the quiet period.

• Also within five days of the World Series ending, teams and/or players decide on exercising contract options; teams will also need to decide whether they’re extending qualifying offers to any of their free agents.

• After that five-day window, players have 10 days to accept or decline QOs.

The Blue Jays don’t have any players with options for next season, so they don’t face any impending decisions there. But eight of their players will qualify for free agency, including Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Corey Dickerson, Jarrod Dyson, Joakim Soria, David Phelps and Kirby Yates.

Of that group, Ray and Semien seem likely to receive QOs. A QO is a one-year deal valued at the average salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. Ray and Semien are almost certainly going to decline those offers, since they’ll likely be seeking longer-term deals, but by extending those offers, the Blue Jays will receive a compensation draft pick(s) if Ray or Semien signs with another team.

Matz is also a candidate for a QO, but his situation is worth further discussion. Based on FanGraphs’ calculation, Matz’s 2.8 fWAR translates to $22.1 million, more than four times what he made in 2021 ($5.2 million). So, if Matz can repeat what he did in 2021 next year, he’s potentially worth more than what the QO amount is. (It hasn’t been determined yet, but it’s been about $17 million to $19 million the past three seasons.) The left-hander might also want more long-term security since next year will be his age-31 season. If the Blue Jays offered it and Matz accepted, they’d get good value on him if he did repeat his success. If he declined, the team protects itself by earning a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Atkins expressed interest in re-signing Ray, Semien and Matz, but after their excellent seasons, they’re expected to receive broad interest from several clubs. Money will talk, of course, and location plays a role too. But coming off their 91-win season, with guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and José Berríos on the roster, the Blue Jays can try to sell those players on returning to a club that looks poised to be a contender.

The other interesting name to watch is Dickerson. The outfielder was acquired midseason in a deal with the Miami Marlins and hit .282/.329/.450 in 46 games with the Blue Jays. As a left-handed hitter, he was a good complement to the team’s predominantly right-handed lineup. His defence in the outfield isn’t as strong as it used to be, with his throwing arm a noticeable weakness, but he can be a useful platoon partner for Randal Grichuk in the outfield and will be a name to watch for the Blue Jays, who are looking to diversify their offence with some left-handed bats ahead of next season.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Hopefully they lose in the ALCS

Cant find myself cheering for either team, guess I'm just going to skip the entire ALCS. Right now, I'm hoping for the Giants to find some of their early 2010s magic.

 

[Bjindaho]

Blue Jays offseason overview: Key dates, qualifying offers, club options and other decisions for the future - The Athletic

Free agents, club options and more

The World Series is scheduled from Oct. 26 to Nov. 3. The soonest it could end is Oct. 30. That’s important to know because the day after the final game of the World Series kicks off the start of the offseason. It goes as follows:

• The day after the World Series ends, trading can resume and free agency opens. But for the first five days, teams are restricted to negotiating only with their own free agents. This time frame is known as the quiet period.

• Also within five days of the World Series ending, teams and/or players decide on exercising contract options; teams will also need to decide whether they’re extending qualifying offers to any of their free agents.

• After that five-day window, players have 10 days to accept or decline QOs.

The Blue Jays don’t have any players with options for next season, so they don’t face any impending decisions there. But eight of their players will qualify for free agency, including Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Corey Dickerson, Jarrod Dyson, Joakim Soria, David Phelps and Kirby Yates.

Of that group, Ray and Semien seem likely to receive QOs. A QO is a one-year deal valued at the average salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. Ray and Semien are almost certainly going to decline those offers, since they’ll likely be seeking longer-term deals, but by extending those offers, the Blue Jays will receive a compensation draft pick(s) if Ray or Semien signs with another team.

Matz is also a candidate for a QO, but his situation is worth further discussion. Based on FanGraphs’ calculation, Matz’s 2.8 fWAR translates to $22.1 million, more than four times what he made in 2021 ($5.2 million). So, if Matz can repeat what he did in 2021 next year, he’s potentially worth more than what the QO amount is. (It hasn’t been determined yet, but it’s been about $17 million to $19 million the past three seasons.) The left-hander might also want more long-term security since next year will be his age-31 season. If the Blue Jays offered it and Matz accepted, they’d get good value on him if he did repeat his success. If he declined, the team protects itself by earning a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Atkins expressed interest in re-signing Ray, Semien and Matz, but after their excellent seasons, they’re expected to receive broad interest from several clubs. Money will talk, of course, and location plays a role too. But coming off their 91-win season, with guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and José Berríos on the roster, the Blue Jays can try to sell those players on returning to a club that looks poised to be a contender.

The other interesting name to watch is Dickerson. The outfielder was acquired midseason in a deal with the Miami Marlins and hit .282/.329/.450 in 46 games with the Blue Jays. As a left-handed hitter, he was a good complement to the team’s predominantly right-handed lineup. His defence in the outfield isn’t as strong as it used to be, with his throwing arm a noticeable weakness, but he can be a useful platoon partner for Randal Grichuk in the outfield and will be a name to watch for the Blue Jays, who are looking to diversify their offence with some left-handed bats ahead of next season.

Wow, that is poorly written.

1) QO is set at 18.4 (was set yesterday)

2) It'll be a cold day in hell before I am okay with creating a platoon for our 4th OF.

3) Analyzing QO versus value is a silly proposition in a vaccuum. For a contending team, 2.8fWAR from a starter is worth significantly more than paying half the amount for half the production. Absolute production has to be a factor. Now, if the debate is Pearson at 300K vs Matz at 18.4, you might have a legit conversation, but if it is Matz at 18.4 versus, say Stroman at 23, there's no reason to actively prefer Matz. OTOH, if you think Matz is worth more than 18.4, why not make a QO (note that his value isn't determined by his production; it is determined by supply and demand, where Stroman and Gausman are clearly above him (with no QO), Rodon, Ray, and Kershaw are above him (the latter two will have QO and I'm not sure about Rodon). Greinke and Sherzer should be above him but are older which means that they have limited suitors (and desired locations). And Thor is a pure question mark IMO (a year ago, he was the top dog, but his injuries are a little worrisome).

 

[showtime8]

Wow, that is poorly written.

1) QO is set at 18.4 (was set yesterday)

2) It'll be a cold day in hell before I am okay with creating a platoon for our 4th OF.

3) Analyzing QO versus value is a silly proposition in a vaccuum. For a contending team, 2.8fWAR from a starter is worth significantly more than paying half the amount for half the production. Absolute production has to be a factor. Now, if the debate is Pearson at 300K vs Matz at 18.4, you might have a legit conversation, but if it is Matz at 18.4 versus, say Stroman at 23, there's no reason to actively prefer Matz. OTOH, if you think Matz is worth more than 18.4, why not make a QO (note that his value isn't determined by his production; it is determined by supply and demand, where Stroman and Gausman are clearly above him (with no QO), Rodon, Ray, and Kershaw are above him (the latter two will have QO and I'm not sure about Rodon). Greinke and Sherzer should be above him but are older which means that they have limited suitors (and desired locations). And Thor is a pure question mark IMO (a year ago, he was the top dog, but his injuries are a little worrisome).

With the Jays "potentially" (more than likely) offering qualifying offers to Ray and Semien, do they receive comp picks still if they don't accept and sign elsewhere or was that changed in the recent MLBPA?

The Jays are going to have to find a way to get rid of that Grichuk salary and find a way to keep Dickerson at or around that number. At that point, they can have an outfield of Dickerson, Teo & Springer. I'm not including Gurriel because I believe he's going to be used as a trade piece to get an upgrade at 2nd or 3rd.

 

[hoc123]

With the Jays "potentially" (more than likely) offering qualifying offers to Ray and Semien, do they receive comp picks still if they don't accept and sign elsewhere or was that changed in the recent MLBPA?

The Jays are going to have to find a way to get rid of that Grichuk salary and find a way to keep Dickerson at or around that number. At that point, they can have an outfield of Dickerson, Teo & Springer. I'm not including Gurriel because I believe he's going to be used as a trade piece to get an upgrade at 2nd or 3rd.

They will receive a compensation pick after the 2’nd round if they sign somewhere else, at least if they continue to be a team that does not qualify for revenue sharing, which I’m sure they don’t.

 

[BlueForever75]

With the Jays "potentially" (more than likely) offering qualifying offers to Ray and Semien, do they receive comp picks still if they don't accept and sign elsewhere or was that changed in the recent MLBPA?

The Jays are going to have to find a way to get rid of that Grichuk salary and find a way to keep Dickerson at or around that number. At that point, they can have an outfield of Dickerson, Teo & Springer. I'm not including Gurriel because I believe he's going to be used as a trade piece to get an upgrade at 2nd or 3rd.

Dickerson will come no where close to the Grichuk number. He's on the books for 11 million a season. You can probably get Dickerson for around 6. If there is a way to deal Grichuk in a deal with Gurriel to fill the void at 2B or 3B if Semien doesnt sign, you do it. If Semien doesnt sign I propose:

Kirk, Gurriel, Grichuk and prospect INF (not named Groshans)

for

Ramirez and power BP arm

Then slide Biggio/Espinal to platoon at 2B and platoon Jansen/McGuire behind the plate. Focus cash on starting pitching (Bringing back Ray and Matz, qualify Stripling) and bullpen re-enforcements.

 

[Bjindaho]

Dickerson will come no where close to the Grichuk number. He's on the books for 11 million a season. You can probably get Dickerson for around 6. If there is a way to deal Grichuk in a deal with Gurriel to fill the void at 2B or 3B if Semien doesnt sign, you do it. If Semien doesnt sign I propose:

Kirk, Gurriel, Grichuk and prospect INF (not named Groshans)

for

Ramirez and power BP arm

Then slide Biggio/Espinal to platoon at 2B and platoon Jansen/McGuire behind the plate. Focus cash on starting pitching (Bringing back Ray and Matz, qualify Stripling) and bullpen re-enforcements.

Cleveland laughs in our faces at that offer.

They likely don't want two OF (and Grichuk is a negative to them in this offer).

Taking your framework of Kirk and Gurriel, we likely have to add Pearson or Manoah and they still likely ask for one of Groshans/Martinez (possibly settling on someone lower down our list like Biggio/Espinal from the MLB roster or a prospect like Smith or Lopez).

 

[Bjindaho]

Cleveland is not in a position where they need to trade Ramirez. They still have 2 years where they could build around him (and are starting with a good rotation). If they signed a decent catcher or traded for one, they could have a chance in the horrid central.

If we acquire Ramirez, it will be because we paid full price for him. He's the best 3B in baseball on a team friendly deal for two years.

 

[BlueForever75]

Cleveland laughs in our faces at that offer.

They likely don't want two OF (and Grichuk is a negative to them in this offer).

Taking your framework of Kirk and Gurriel, we likely have to add Pearson or Manoah and they still likely ask for one of Groshans/Martinez (possibly settling on someone lower down our list like Biggio/Espinal from the MLB roster or a prospect like Smith or Lopez).

Great so we keep Grichuk for a platoon situation with a resigned Dickerson. Pearson and Manoah are untouchable so they would need to take a pitcher below them. Im fine giving up Biggio or Espinal in the deal. The three MLB ready young players going back in the deal are Kirk, Biggio/Espinal and Gurriel. If they can find 3 young players that are better than that in a deal the Jays should walk. I doubt Cleveland does. Not players that have the experience they do and have shown to be able to produce.

 

[Bjindaho]

Great so we keep Grichuk for a platoon situation with a resigned Dickerson. Pearson and Manoah are untouchable so they would need to take a pitcher below them. Im fine giving up Biggio or Espinal in the deal. The three MLB ready young players going back in the deal are Kirk, Biggio/Espinal and Gurriel. If they can find 3 young players that are better than that in a deal the Jays should walk. I doubt Cleveland does. Not players that have the experience they do and have shown to be able to produce.

I don't think Grichuk is untradeable. We just may have to pay to move him (something like Grichuk and Kevin Smith for Dylan Floro could potentially work).

 

[BlueForever75]

I don't think Grichuk is untradeable. We just may have to pay to move him (something like Grichuk and Kevin Smith for Dylan Floro could potentially work).

To be honest I am ok keeping him. Great coverage for Springer. When he is on he is on. He is exactly what you would expect from an 11 million dollar OF. A .260Avg, 20+ HR, 75+ Rbi, and above average defense. If anyone expects more than that than you are looking at 16 million plus. He is actually a steal at the price we got him for.

 

[Discoverer]

To be honest I am ok keeping him. Great coverage for Springer. When he is on he is on. He is exactly what you would expect from an 11 million dollar OF. A .260Avg, 20+ HR, 75+ Rbi, and above average defense. If anyone expects more than that than you are looking at 16 million plus. He is actually a steal at the price we got him for.

Grichuk's deal is nowhere close to a "steal". If he were a free agent today he wouldn't come close to $10 million let alone for a multi-year commitment. Players like Grichuk (below average offensively, kind of ok defensively, well below-average player overall) sign for $2-3 million every offseason, maybe a little more if a team is willing to gamble that he still has some upside left.

 

[Bjindaho]

There are many options available to us.

If Ray and Semien leave, we pivot to other names.

We could invest in a Starling Marte to be another OF/DH option, trade for Seager, sign one of the big names like Gausman and trade for Alcantara or Rogers for example.

 

[Bjindaho]

Another thing is that I fully expect the Yankees to go hard after a SS and a 3B. I could see them signing Correa and trading for Ramirez.

 

[Bjindaho]

One option available to us is to attack our rivals by going after some of their guys.

Rizzo to DH, sign Ray, go hard after Eduardo Rodriguez, get Colin McHugh (then trade for Chapman)

 

[Bjindaho]

I don't think that LH/RH is a big deal. On the other hand, different approaches at the plate would be nice.

Springer
Ramirez
Bo
Vlad
Hernandez
Cruz
Jansen
Espinal
Gurriel

would be a hell of a balance to different approaches (assuming we get end of the year Danny). In this scenario, we would have moved Grichuk and Biggio and would have Valera, Smith, McGuire (since Kirk would likely be in a deal for Ramirez), and our backup outfielder on the bench.

Even with that, we could realistically re-sign Ray, add a 2nd quality starter whether it is Matz or someone we trade for, and upgrade the BP.

 

[SDig14]

Good to see Moreno playing in the AFL starting today. Hopefully get some reps in before starting at AAA next year and pick up where he left off.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Youngest player on the AFL team that the Jays are on: Leo Jimenez
2nd youngest: Michael Dominguez
4th youngest: Gabriel Moreno

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Another thing is that I fully expect the Yankees to go hard after a SS and a 3B. I could see them signing Correa and trading for Ramirez.

The Yankees don't seem to want to go over the luxury tax anymore. So that would either have to change or money would have to be shipped out elsewhere. Atleast for a Correa. They could afford Ramirez obviously.

 

[phillipmike]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/white-sox-trade-rumors-craig-kimbrel.html

The question in assessing his value is whether he’d top that $16MM mark on the open market. After all, in order for a club to not only acquire Kimbrel but also part with any sort of meaningful young talent, the rival front office would need to believe that Kimbrel is underpriced. If one were to simply look at Kimbrel’s cumulative numbers, a one-year, $16MM deal in free agency is something he could easily be expected to surpass. However, when the bulk of the damage against him came in the final two months and lingered into the postseason, it becomes far less certain. It’s possible Kimbrel could generate some strong two-year offers — probably at an annual value lower than next year’s $16MM mark — but many teams would surely prefer a hearty one-year deal (perhaps in the same range as his current salary).

For teams in the latter bucket, it’s likely they just don’t view Kimbrel as a highly palatable trade chip — at least not to the extent that they’d give up a meaningful prospect. It’s certainly plausible that Kimbrel could be swapped out for another expensive veteran — speculatively speaking, the Rays had interest in Kimbrel at the deadline and figure to again be open to moving Kevin Kiermaier and his comparable salary — but the Sox aren’t likely to find a team willing to part with a top prospect or controllable young big leaguer. Whatever route Hahn and his staff take, it seems there’s a chance Kimbrel’s tenure with the team will be short-lived.

I doubt Chicago is interested in Grichuk because he has the extra year. But if they like Kiermaier at roughly $14.5M, perhaps retention on Grichuk would interest them with a prospect for Kimbrel.

Retain $2M on Grichuk in 2022 and $2M in 2023. Total of $16M owed to Grichuk over 2 years in comparison to Kimbrel's $16M in 1 year. Jays will likely have to give up a prospect to sweeten the deal for the White Sox. They traded Mandrigal so perhaps they need a 2B. Otto Lopez would be too much, but maybe Kevin Smith or Samad Taylor gets the deal done.

Jays probably wouldn’t mind another back end reliever, free up the 4th OF position to get a real defense first CF with a left handed bat and save $8-10M in 2023.

White Sox save $8M this offseason to go after other needs and gets a real OF to join Robert and Eloy.

 

[showtime8]

Dickerson will come no where close to the Grichuk number. He's on the books for 11 million a season. You can probably get Dickerson for around 6. If there is a way to deal Grichuk in a deal with Gurriel to fill the void at 2B or 3B if Semien doesnt sign, you do it. If Semien doesnt sign I propose:

Kirk, Gurriel, Grichuk and prospect INF (not named Groshans)

for

Ramirez and power BP arm

Then slide Biggio/Espinal to platoon at 2B and platoon Jansen/McGuire behind the plate. Focus cash on starting pitching (Bringing back Ray and Matz, qualify Stripling) and bullpen re-enforcements.

I would love to have Semien back, but with the comments he made about himself being a short stop still and the fact that he's from the Bay Area, it just screams that he's going to the San Fran Giants. Even with Crawford re-signing, he's probably still a fit there.

If you can get some similar production from Dickerson, that's a deal the Jays should lock up on a 2-3 year deal ($6mill). If you can hide him in left-field the same way they did with Gurriel, then you do that 100%. But you only do that if you make the trade for Ramirez and RP.

Keep in mind that the Jays wasted $12mill on Roark last year....