It feels pretty obvious that the Jays are going hard after a big arm on a 1 year deal only. They have absolutely nothing coming off the books next offseason, so lets say they go to 170 million with the majority being multi-year deals, then you're looking at Vladdy arb 2 raise, Bo's arb 1 raise, Teo's arb raise, Berrios' extra 9 million(assuming it's 11, 20, 20 etc breakdown), and some other minor arb raises adding onto the 170 million from this year with nothing coming off. That's either going to force another payroll increase(which is fine if that's Rogers plan) or artificially compress this seasons payroll knowing there's a increase coming. That's mitigated with 1 year deals obviously.
I still think they've got the long term payroll room for 1 more long term deal, but I heavily suspect they're looking at getting a great arm on a 1 year deal as well to know where that 2023 increase for 4 or 5 guys is coming from.