Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

[weems]

Bodog just released some MLB future bets on the FA's

Which team signs Marcus Semien

Toronto +115
Detroit +500
Texas +500
Seattle +500
SF +600
Houston +950

Which team signs Robbie Ray

Toronto -280
LA Angels +300
Chicago Cubs +800
STL +800
Dodgers +900
Yankees +900

Other names they have bets open for (Correa, Seager, Freeman, Baez, Bryant, Scherzer, Stroman, Story, Syndergaard, Rizzo)

 

[Discoverer]

I've beaten this drum for a while, but I don't like that sort of spending. The team has Romano who can close already. They need bullpen depth, not just one better arm. And for the price of one FA closer you can probably get 3-5 solid other pen arms to help round things out and fix the Jays' bigger bullpen need.

I'm usually not big on spending big money on relievers, but I think at this point I would be with Kurtz on this one... go for one or two really good relievers rather than spreading it around. They already have a bunch of the kind of guys you would get for $3-5 million (Cimber, Richards, Mayza...) so I think they're better off adding a top high-leverage guy for the back end than more of those.

 

[aingefan]

I'm usually not big on spending big money on relievers, but I think at this point I would be with Kurtz on this one... go for one or two really good relievers rather than spreading it around. They already have a bunch of the kind of guys you would get for $3-5 million (Cimber, Richards, Mayza...) so I think they're better off adding a top high-leverage guy for the back end than more of those.

I agree, high leverage arm, modest term.
There’s already lotsa depth that’s developed; Pearson might be back there, Merryweather if he can stay healthy, Hatch is an option, Saucedo, Borucki and Snead from the left side, Castro.
Lots of viable arms for 2-3 spots, after the four returning and a high leverage guy added.

 

[Kurtz]

I've beaten this drum for a while, but I don't like that sort of spending. The team has Romano who can close already. They need bullpen depth, not just one better arm. And for the price of one FA closer you can probably get 3-5 solid other pen arms to help round things out and fix the Jays' bigger bullpen need.

We've tried that route and have been burned seemingly every time. Dolis, Yamaguchi, Chatwood, etc. U add up the money for those guys - and you can get a surefire ace for that price like Iglesias. Then u gain tons of flexibility with Romano, u can use him in all kinds of high leverage situations instead of sitting on him till the 9th. Sort of like Andrew Miller was used a couple of years ago to immense success.

 

[weems]

Where will Carlos Correa sign? Detroit+130, NYM+350, Houston+450, NYY+500, Texas+650, SEA+950, PHI+1600, MIN+1600,STL+1800
Where will Corey Seager sign? LAD EVEN, NYY+300, Texas+300, Chi cubs+850, PHI+859, SF+950, SEA+950
Where will Javier Baez sign? NYM-180, Chi cubs+325, NYY+325, Texas+900, Det+950, Chi ws+950
Where will Kris Bryant sign? NYM-110, SF+200, NYY+700, Chi ws+750, SEA+800, PHI+900
Where will Marcus Semien sign? TOR+115, DET+500, SEA+500, TEXAS+500, SF+600, Houston+950, Chi ws+1200, COL+1500, Chi cubs+1500
Where will Marcus Stroman sign? SD+165, NYM+225, Chi cubs+400, TOR+550, LAA+650, NYY+700, LAD+800
Where will Max Scherzer sign? LAD-175, LAA+300, NYY+800, BOS+950, HOU+1100, NYM+1100, SDP+1100, WAS+1500
Where will Noah Syndergaard sign? NYM-500, LAA+500, NYY+600, Chi cubs+650. SEA+1500, Texas+1500
Where will Robbie Ray sign? TOR-280, LAA+300, Chi cubs+800, STL+800, NYY+900, LAD+900
Where will Trevor Story sign? TEX+200, DET+290, Chi cubs+350, NYY+475, LAA+500, COL+700, PHI+700

Interesting to see Correa to DET but the AJ Hinch link is whats driving that and they need a shortstop.
Robbie Ray at -280 to sign with us also interesting and its almost like they've heard something.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Blue Jays notebook: Staying in touch with Semien and Ray, assessing infield options - TSN.ca

CARLSBAD, Calif. — It surprises nobody that Ross Atkins left the picturesque GM meetings host resort just outside San Diego on Thursday afternoon with the same roster holes he entered the week with.

At this early stage of the off-season, it’s all about information gathering rather than executing, and the first in-person meetings of these kind since 2019 have started to reveal the true intentions of a handful of teams.

The Cincinnati Reds and the Oakland A’s are sellers.

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are buyers.

And there seems to be a much larger group of owners willing to spend this winter compared to a year ago in the thick of the pandemic.

All of it will affect what Atkins and his Toronto Blue Jays front office is trying to do in various ways.

There’s no secret where the Jays sit: They’re win-now buyers with money to spend once again.

Rotation impact, infield reinforcements and bullpen depth are all needed between now and February.

Figuring out exactly who they are after and the tricky blueprint needed to get all that done is another story.

Atkins is playing multiple hands at a time, the same as 29 other general managers.

“It’s a matter of thinking about whether it’s more complementary or a free agent or a trade of some significant impact,” Atkins said. “We’re also in a position where we have to consider if there are ways that other teams are valuing certain areas of our club that could help us round out the team in a different way. That’s why these meetings are so helpful and so important in expediting a lot of that information for us.”

The general sense this week in California is that the top end of the free-agent market won’t have much movement until the CBA is figured out, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a handful of deals won’t happen.

There will surely be a handful of players seeking some certainty and deem an offer too good to pass up this month.

“There are always things we can act on and I wouldn’t be surprised if teams are close right now,” Atkins said Thursday before boarding a flight back to Toronto. “There are things that we could clearly push forward but still have a lot of opportunities and different things to consider where we don’t have something imminent.”

.......................

RULE 5 DEADLINE COMING

Clubs have until next Friday to add eligible players to the 40-man roster or risk losing them in next month’s Rule 5 draft.

The Jays have some interesting decisions to make on some low-level names.

Using my 2021 top 50 Jays prospects list as a guide the most important names who need to be added are infielder Miguel Hiraldo (No. 9), right-hander Joey Murray (No. 17), shortstop Leo Jimenez (No. 20) and Brazilian righty Eric Pardinho (No. 23).

Jimenez, a true shortstop, seems like the best bet.

There’s also Triple-A starters Zach Logue and Bowden Francis, who was acquired in the deal that sent Rowdy Tellez to the Milwaukee Brewers, versatile speedster Samad Taylor (No. 38) as well as interesting low-level arms like Roither Hernandez (No. 41), Naswell Paulino (No. 42) and Alejandro Melean (No. 43).

Only a couple of these names will be added to the Jays’ 40-man, but you can expect to see a flurry of minor moves league-wide next Friday.

 

[dredeye]

The 40 man needs some spots it seems

 

[kb]

Not sure I would waste a 40-man spot on A-ball SS (Leo Jimenez/Miguel Hiraldo) or an A-ball P (Pardinho). Those guys would have to spend the entire season on a major league roster.

 

[BlueForever75]

My guess is the Jays will be really active this off season. They really don’t have any other option. When you have a team that is as competitive as they were, your window to compete has arrived.

Bringing back Ray, Semien and Matz or replacing them isn’t good enough. They have to add on top of that. Why you ask? Cause their team with those players was not good enough.
So what does that mean? If you add Semien back you have to replace him with a bat as good or better. If you don’t resign Ray and Matz you have to sign or trade for better arms. They can get better by upgrading those positions or players but I don’t see it.

Time will tell what they do. But one thing is certain staying the same will not help.

 

[Eyedea]

My guess is the Jays will be really active this off season. They really don’t have any other option. When you have a team that is as competitive as they were, your window to compete has arrived.

Bringing back Ray, Semien and Matz or replacing them isn’t good enough. They have to add on top of that. Why you ask? Cause their team with those players was not good enough.
So what does that mean? If you add Semien back you have to replace him with a bat as good or better. If you don’t resign Ray and Matz you have to sign or trade for better arms. They can get better by upgrading those positions or players but I don’t see it.

Time will tell what they do. But one thing is certain staying the same will not help.

I get it, I do… but on the flip side full seasons from Springer, Berrios, and Manoah can conceivably be considered additions on top of retaining those guys. But I do of course expect upgrades, specifically in the bullpen.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

so do the sub picks count as seconds for allocated money or closer to a 3rd round cap

 

[TheBeastCoast]

My guess is the Jays will be really active this off season. They really don’t have any other option. When you have a team that is as competitive as they were, your window to compete has arrived.

Bringing back Ray, Semien and Matz or replacing them isn’t good enough. They have to add on top of that. Why you ask? Cause their team with those players was not good enough.
So what does that mean? If you add Semien back you have to replace him with a bat as good or better. If you don’t resign Ray and Matz you have to sign or trade for better arms. They can get better by upgrading those positions or players but I don’t see it.

Time will tell what they do. But one thing is certain staying the same will not help.

I mean you always want to make the team better...but there were a lot of extenuating circumstances to last season. I don't feel like I am going out on to big of a limb when I say if the Jays play the entire season in Toronto they likely make the playoffs. We will be playing the entire season in Toronto next year.

 

[Discoverer]

Not sure I would waste a 40-man spot on A-ball SS (Leo Jimenez/Miguel Hiraldo) or an A-ball P (Pardinho). Those guys would have to spend the entire season on a major league roster.

Yeah, I don't see any must-add guys on that list. The closest would be Taylor, I think, because he does a lot well (had a big offensive season with lots of power, good speed, positional versatility) and a rebuilding team could definitely afford to keep him on the roster as a utility guy to see if he can handle it.

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[aingefan]

Yeah, I don't see any must-add guys on that list. The closest would be Taylor, I think, because he does a lot well (had a big offensive season with lots of power, good speed, positional versatility) and a rebuilding team could definitely afford to keep him on the roster as a utility guy to see if he can handle it.

I could see Jimenez as a grab n stash kinda guy too, plenty young, good D, decent bat (better than anticipated last year, I’d say).

 

[Canada4Gold]

I could see Jimenez as a grab n stash kinda guy too, plenty young, good D, decent bat (better than anticipated last year, I’d say).

I have a tough time seeing anyone willing to roster a A ball SS for a full season, especially one with not a ton of prospect upside. Jimenez was always an ok prospect but the upside wasn't that high, more of a good defensive MIF who could maybe hit well enough to click as a starter, but likely a backup. He's not even hitting Arizona Fall League pitching all that well(.699 OPS). Feels like that's not even passable as a backup. You'd expect terrible numbers, and then he probably takes 2 and a half years after that just to be MLB ready to probably be a backup. Perhaps if Hiraldo had the kind of season Jimenez just had a bad team might be willing to bite the bullet on a bad numbers to get the upside. I don't really see anyone taking the chance on either now. Jimenez's upside isn't worth it I don't think, and Hiraldo hasn't played well enough for it to be worth it either.

 

[aingefan]

I have a tough time seeing anyone willing to roster a A ball SS for a full season, especially one with not a ton of prospect upside. Jimenez was always an ok prospect but the upside wasn't that high, more of a good defensive MIF who could maybe hit well enough to click as a starter, but likely a backup. He's not even hitting Arizona Fall League pitching all that well(.699 OPS). Feels like that's not even passable as a backup. You'd expect terrible numbers, and then he probably takes 2 and a half years after that just to be MLB ready to probably be a backup. Perhaps if Hiraldo had the kind of season Jimenez just had a bad team might be willing to bite the bullet on a bad numbers to get the upside. I don't really see anyone taking the chance on either now. Jimenez's upside isn't worth it I don't think, and Hiraldo hasn't played well enough for it to be worth it either.

Maybe not, but he had a better season than Hiraldo with an almost .900 ops, is the better defensive player and at a premium position, and is the better part of a year younger.
21 - mlb bench
22 - advA/AA
23 - AAA/mlb?
Might be worthwhile for someone.

 

[aingefan]

Delete, oops.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Maybe not, but he had a better season than Hiraldo with an almost .900 ops, is the better defensive player and at a premium position, and is the better part of a year younger.
21 - mlb bench
22 - advA/AA
23 - AAA/mlb?
Might be worthwhile for someone.

I'm not suggesting Hiraldo would be taken either. Just that he's always has had and likely still has the higher upside. Unlike a pitcher or say a outfielder with speed who with have more usefulness even as a bad player to be willing to roster a low A player as your backup middle infielder knowing full well it's a huge punt on that roster spot all season I think you need both a high upside player who is also tracking well. Which is why I said perhaps if Hiraldo had the season that Jimenez just had I might be concerned. Best case scenario for Leo is likely a below average starter, but the 95th percentile result is probably a good defensive backup. I don't think there's enough upside with Jimenez to be worth it, and I don't think Hiraldo is tracking well enough to be worth it. I think you'd need both upside and good recent results to pick a Low A SS in the rule 5. But I've been wrong before so who knows. For what it's worth those 2, Danner, Murray and Taylor are probably the 5 I care most about losing even if I think those 2 are unlikely. Logue, Francis and Spraker probably has more usefulness to a team now as pitchers in the higher end of a farm system but if they lose them it's MLB depth more than anything.

I'd probably protect Murray and Taylor and call it a day. I'm somewhat concerned someone might take Danner for the upside play because he was really good in high A and it was only his first year as a pitcher after being a 2 way player out of high school. So I might protect him as well but I'm not sure.

 

[trellaine201]

So how does a pitcher Louis Head get traded for cash or player to be named later with good stats? He isn’t worth much? I realize he only pitched 32 innings but those stats would make me believe he was worth something.

 

[barilko05]

Bringing back Ray, Semien and Matz or replacing them isn’t good enough. They have to add on top of that. Why you ask? Cause their team with those players was not good enough.

I beg to differ. If this team had played in the dome ALL season instead of splitting it between there and two minor league parks with no fan support, not only would they have made the playoffs they may have even challenged Tampa for the division. I truly believe they were that good.

 

[Amadeus]

Eduardo Rodrigues signs with Detroit on a multi year deal between $77-80 million.

Source: MLBTR

 

[phillipmike]

Eduardo Rodrigues signs with Detroit on a multi year deal between $77-80 million.

Source: MLBTR

Matz has to be happy with this. E-Rod of course has a better 2019 but he didnt pitch 2020 and Matz's 2021 WAR was 2 vs E-Rod's 1.8. Got to think Matz gets at least 3-4 years, maybe $39M to 54M.

 

[habamillions]

Matz has to be happy with this. E-Rod of course has a better 2019 but he didnt pitch 2020 and Matz's 2021 WAR was 2 vs E-Rod's 1.8. Got to think Matz gets at least 3-4 years, maybe $39M to 54M.

I think matz goes to boston to replace rodriquez. Dont see the jays paying that. Plus dont want them to for a 4th rotation piece

 

[Kurtz]

Matz has to be happy with this. E-Rod of course has a better 2019 but he didnt pitch 2020 and Matz's 2021 WAR was 2 vs E-Rod's 1.8. Got to think Matz gets at least 3-4 years, maybe $39M to 54M.

Interestingly, Rodriguez had an fWar of 3.8 this year with Steamer projection of 3.7 fWAr next year.

Matz had 2.8 Fwar with Steamer projection of 2.3 next year
Ray had 3.9 fWar and Steamer projects him for 3.6 next year.


Morosi said we were in on Rodriguez.