Blue Jays Discussion: The off-season is on. (Robbie Ray wins AL Cy Young)

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

2022 Top 50 Free Agents

3. Marcus Semien*, 2B/SS, Age 31
Contract Estimate

Type	Years	AAV	Total
Ben Clemens	4	$30.0 M	$120.0 M
Median Crowdsource	4	$23.0 M	$92.0 M
Avg Crowdsource	4.55	$25.0 M	$113.5 M

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2022 Steamer Projections

PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	Off	Def	WAR
681	10.0%	18.5%	.259	.337	.469	.345	117	16.0	5.5	4.4

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Ben’s Take
In two of the last three seasons, Semien has been a stud. In the five other full seasons he’s played, he’s been a solid everyday regular, nothing more. Who’s the real Semien? My best guess — and Steamer’s — is somewhere in between, a fringe All-Star who can handle either middle infield spot, though second looks like a more natural long-term home to my eyes.
Getting that kind of production for the next few years and then a capable middle infielder as he ages (he’s 31 right now) should interest everyone, but particularly teams that think their competitive window has an expiration date. The Phillies and Twins could use a player like that. So could the Yankees, at least as a supplement to their current core. That might keep Semien’s contract short — but he’ll get paid in return for its brevity.

Player Notes
If you thought Marcus Semien’s weak 2020 season proved that his near-MVP performance in ’19 was a stone-cold fluke, he would like to have a word with your manager. While we’d all probably like to forget 2020, Semien managed that feat better than most, nearly matching his ’19 with a .265/.334/.538, 131 wRC+, 6.6 WAR ironman performance that was a big reason the Blue Jays were competitive until the final day of the season. Among players with at least 50% of their games played at second base, Semien even set the single-season record for home runs.
While the shortstop market this winter is deep, Semien’s 2021 means that he won’t have to go hat-in-hand on a one-year deal, though a true blockbuster contract is unlikely as he’s on the wrong side of 30. In a flip of the usual dynamic, Semien playing second might make him even more valuable than he would be otherwise, as he’s already shown himself amenable to playing there instead of at short, which might not be the case with the other top free agents at the position.
Semien’s likely entering his decline years, but I’d have no problem considering him a star for at least the next two or three seasons, and playing him at shortstop for at least the beginning of his contract if my roster demanded it. His mid-career turnaround will always be a great example of why you should take every opportunity to let a talented player redefine himself in a positive fashion. – DS

7. Robbie Ray*, SP, Age 30
Contract Estimate

Type	Years	AAV	Total
Ben Clemens	4	$28.0 M	$112.0 M
Median Crowdsource	4	$18.0 M	$72.0 M
Avg Crowdsource	4.75	$22.4 M	$106.5 M

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2022 Steamer Projections

IP	BB%	K%	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR	RA9-WAR
186.0	9.0%	30.8%	37.4%	3.77	3.76	3.64	3.6	3.7

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Ben’s Take
Ray put his hellacious stuff together this year, pitching to the potential that he showed for years in Arizona. He’s always had strikeout stuff, but often wasted good performances due to his command issues.
About that: he stopped walking people this year. “Continue striking everyone out but cut out the walks” is a neat trick — every big league pitcher would do it if they could. Ray cut his walk rate literally in half, posting a 6.9% rate after a profligate 2020. He also struck out 32.1% of his opponents, the second-best mark of his career. All the strikeouts, none of the walks? It’s clear why Ray was so effective.
Every team shopping at the top of the free agent market will want Ray. Is there a chance he reverts to his previous form? Sure. But if this year’s command improvements even half-stick, he’ll be a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come.
Player Notes
After years of high strikeout and walk rates, Ray finally tapped into his tantalizing potential this season by lowering the latter without affecting the former. Signed by the Blue Jays on a one-year deal after a horrid 2020 season, Ray quickly became the staff’s ace and very well could end up winning the American League Cy Young Award, thanks to his 2.84 ERA over 193.1 innings pitched. The 6.9% walk rate was by far a career-best, though his FIP — and thus his WAR — didn’t scream as elite because he allowed the seventh-highest HR/9 among pitchers with 150 innings. This is definitely a different Robbie Ray, though, and as long as he remains in control of his stuff, the 30-year-old should be one of the most sought-after free agents on the market. The Blue Jays would probably be remiss to let him sign elsewhere, but a Cy Young-caliber season in terms of run prevention means that his services will be much more in demand this winter than they were just a year ago. Even with a little regression baked in, Ray should be a productive starter again next year, with the potential for more if he repeats his 2021. – DF

31. Steven Matz, SP, Age 31
Contract Estimate

Type	Years	AAV	Total
Ben Clemens	3	$14.0 M	$42.0 M
Median Crowdsource	3	$12.8 M	$38.3 M
Avg Crowdsource	2.68	$13.2 M	$35.3 M

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2022 Steamer Projections

IP	BB%	K%	GB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR	RA9-WAR
158.0	7.2%	22.6%	45.7%	4.19	4.16	4.03	2.3	2.3

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Player Notes
Sentenced to the harsh and borderline cruel punishment of having to pitch in the AL East, Matz was a surprisingly positive and stable presence in the back of Toronto’s rotation, making 29 starts and throwing 150.2 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball. And while the overall numbers weren’t anything special or pretty, they were both a massive improvement from his dreadful 2020 and in line with his better years on the Mets, suggesting that the pandemic-shortened season was more blip, or at least worst-case scenario, than ominous portent. Still, the upside here no longer feels very high. A sinker-first pitcher like Matz will always live or die with his defense, and the Jays’ piecemeal and sluggish infield did him no favors in that regard. Nor is there anything in his profile to suggest there’s another level to reach, barring a massive change in velocity, arsenal or approach. By this point, Matz is what he is: a mid-tier starter with good control who’ll toss a gem every now and again. You can do better, but you can also do far worse. – JT

Some of these contracts are ridiculously low.

 

[SDig14]

This makes sense. Moreno is basically untouchable and doubt Miami has any plan to trade Alcantara or Rogers.

Them dealing Lopez or Hernandez makes a lot of sense.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Kirk's not available for Hernandez IMO. We'd probably have to add for Lopez.

 

[SDig14]

Kirk's not available for Hernandez IMO. We'd probably have to add for Lopez.

Only thing with Lopez is his health. I know he had some sort of shoulder issue, is he healthy and ready to go now?. And I guess we should be trading with whichever team out of Cleveland, Miami, Oakland or Cincy that is most desperate for a catcher and values Kirk the most.

Of course, we can deal with those teams for prospects and other players as well, but wouldn't shock me if Kirk + something we can all live with gets Lopez assuming they love Kirk as much as our front office seems to as well.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[djdev]

lol its funny to me hes speaking english in this clip at the beginning then switches to spanish.

 

[Kurtz]

Only thing with Lopez is his health. I know he had some sort of shoulder issue, is he healthy and ready to go now?. And I guess we should be trading with whichever team out of Cleveland, Miami, Oakland or Cincy that is most desperate for a catcher and values Kirk the most.

Of course, we can deal with those teams for prospects and other players as well, but wouldn't shock me if Kirk + something we can all live with gets Lopez assuming they love Kirk as much as our front office seems to as well.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Yeah I like Lopez in theory but he has gone on the IL...I want to say 3 times with shoulder problems. Massive massive red flags. Especially if someone like Kirk who has proven he can hit at the major league level and isn't some hope and a prayer is the asking price.

 

[Discoverer]

Ha, when I checked his game log to see if/when he came back and saw one short start in October, my first thought was "Knowing the Marlins they probably just had him start so they can try to convince other teams he's healthy and trade him".

 

[GreytWun]

This seems disappointing to hear. I don’t think he will be back if true.

 

[Avilaj07]

This seems disappointing to hear. I don’t think he will be back if true.

If anything, I feel like this may benefit us. Some teams might be hesitant to hand out massive contracts without knowing the specifics of the new CBA where as Rogers has an unlimited funds. The question is, how much are they willing to spend.

 

[weems]

Moreno 3 for 6 with 3 rbi's yesterday

 

[GreytWun]

If anything, I feel like this may benefit us. Some teams might be hesitant to hand out massive contracts without knowing the specifics of the new CBA where as Rogers has an unlimited funds. The question is, how much are they willing to spend.

I hope so

 

[Bjindaho]

I'm gonna be honest.

As a Blue Jays fan, I would rather have Seagar at 3B than Semien at 2B. But as a baseball fan, I will always value Marcus higher as an elite middle infield defender. Seagar isn't really a SS at all.

Also, those projections on him and Bryant make no sense. I'm not paying either one more than Ray or Gausman. They are Baez level FA IMO who will be paid like top 10 players in the game.

 

[SDig14]

 

[Bjindaho]

It wouldn't shock me if the team traded two catchers this offseason.

Trade one to Miami for a young starter as part of a package (especially if their big two are off the table), then trade the other for a 3B.

I expect some creativity. The less pay for this, the more we can throw at plugging other holes (like get Ray and offer 1 year to Verlander).

 

[GreytWun]

I'm gonna be honest.

As a Blue Jays fan, I would rather have Seagar at 3B than Semien at 2B. But as a baseball fan, I will always value Marcus higher as an elite middle infield defender. Seagar isn't really a SS at all.

Also, those projections on him and Bryant make no sense. I'm not paying either one more than Ray or Gausman. They are Baez level FA IMO who will be paid like top 10 players in the game.

Which Seagar you referring to? Not sure Kyle is a that great.

 

[Bjindaho]

Which Seagar you referring to? Not sure Kyle is a that great.

Corey is expected to be the top or 2nd highest paid FA this offseason, but projects as a 3B. He isn't a very good defender at all.

Kyle is a 2nd/3rd tier 3B.

 

[Kurtz]

Corey is expected to be the top or 2nd highest paid FA this offseason, but projects as a 3B. He isn't a very good defender at all.

Kyle is a 2nd/3rd tier 3B.

When people say Seager I always assume they're talking about Kyle on a 1 or 2-year deal to bridge the gap to Groshans or Martinez. I don't think the other Seager is realistic.

 

[Bjindaho]

When people say Seager I always assume they're talking about Kyle on a 1 or 2-year deal to bridge the gap to Groshans or Martinez.

Honestly, Kyle was an option when we thought Seattle would pick up his option so that we could trade virtually nothing to take him.

As a free agent, that may not be on the table unless he's willing to accept 1 year around his extension number.

 

[Kurtz]

Honestly, Kyle was an option when we thought Seattle would pick up his option so that we could trade virtually nothing to take him.

As a free agent, that may not be on the table unless he's willing to accept 1 year around his extension number.

Oh, I wouldn't have done that. His option was for $20 mil - I wouldn't touch him for that.

Mlb Traderumours projects him to get 2 years at $12m per. I think that's a lot more reasonable.


If Semien is a goner, I'd be down with Seager for $12, Ray $25 and Raisel Iglesias for $12-15 as our new closer. That would leave us with another $15m or so to get a 5th starter (or Verlander-like gamble) with maybe a little walk-around money left for the deadline.

 

[The Nemesis]

Oh, I wouldn't have done that. His option was for $20 mil - I wouldn't touch him for that.

Mlb Traderumours projects him to get 2 years at $12m per. I think that's a lot more reasonable.


If Semien is a goner, I'd be down with Seager for $12, Ray $25 and Raisel Iglesias for $12-15 as our new closer. That would leave us with another $15m or so to get a 5th starter (or Verlander-like gamble) with maybe a little walk-around money left for the deadline.

I've beaten this drum for a while, but I don't like that sort of spending. The team has Romano who can close already. They need bullpen depth, not just one better arm. And for the price of one FA closer you can probably get 3-5 solid other pen arms to help round things out and fix the Jays' bigger bullpen need.